It was “Hit Mitt” night at St. Anselm College as the Republican candidates gathered for a little pre-primary piling on session with Mitt Romney the target and John McCain the beneficiary.
First, a couple of notes on ABC’s format. It was good. It was interesting in the sense that it seemed to encourage a little back and forth – always better than the press conference like atmosphere that is the format for most other debates. And I think being seated helped the candidates relax a little which allowed us to see them at their best – or nearly so.
Charlie Gibson was appropriately serious and asked penetrating questions. Less so his colleague from WMUR who asked the lamest question of the night on “excess profits” of oil companies (and was promptly made to look very small indeed when Fred dismissed his question almost absent mindedly as if to say “The adults are talking. Go outside and play with the other kids.”). Gibson was head and shoulders above just about any other debate moderator except Brit Hume.
Individually, there were no big winners or losers. Fred, the Huckster and McCain ganged up on Mitt Romney who managed to mostly hold his own (with some notable lapses) against the onslaught. Romney seemed slightly off his game. Given the relentless attacks, that shouldn’t be surprising. Huckabee’s thrusts were less aggressive than Fred’s but that’s because the Huckaboob can’t match wits with Romney.
A thumbnail sketch of how each candidate did:
Ron Paul
A kindler, gentler Paul? Not quite as bombastic or confrontational as in past debates although he did get in his “It’s our fault” talking point with regard to the war on terror. Mitt and Rudy especially effectively used Paul as a punching bag.
But Paul’s performance never matters in these debates. He has garnered just about as much support as he’s going to so it’s no longer a question of convincing anyone for him.
Rudy Giuliani
Rudy was his normal, combative self trying to shake off his disastrous immigration policies by framing it as a question of compassion. That works when talking about health care and education for illegals but it doesn’t cut it when he tries to defend his simple lack of enforcement of immigration laws – even for perpetrators of violent crimes.
Rudy was simply treading water, hoping to survive until Florida on the 29th where most analysts agree is his Waterloo.
Fred Thompson
Fred was at home in this format and showed it. He was sharp as a tack and actually quite eloquent at times. He skewered Romney on health care, flustering the former governor to the point that he actually said he liked health insurance mandates. And his dismissive answer about oil company profits was vintage Fred.
I wish Fred had engaged the other candidates more in the sidebars and back and forths. Nevertheless, many, including Marc Ambinder, thought Fred won. Perhaps, but it won’t do him any good in New Hampshire. Elsewhere – like South Carolina or even Michigan – we’ll have to see.
Mike Huckabee
Aggressive at the beginning, Huckabee seemed to fade toward the end. He looked lost in most of the foreign policy debate. He was even caught by Romney’s people in a flip flop on the surge in Iraq. Huckabee was also on the defensive regarding his immigration policies.
It appeared to me that he never got his fake sincere populist shtick going. He also, will not be a factor in New Hampshire.
John McCain
McCain’s strongest debate performance to date. He was relaxed, engaged, confident, and when he talked about national security you listened. His barbs directed against Romney were personal and effective.
All the hits Romney took from other candidates benefited McCain so in the broadest sense, you would have to name him the winner for the night.
Mitt Romney
Romney survived the multiple attacks just fine. He had some shaky moments on immigration and health insurance but overall, another excellent performance. The man is smart and has put a lot of thought into his positions – unlike Huckabee whose mind doesn’t appear to me to be supple or nuanced enough to grasp complex issues.
But Mitt is running uphill now and all his carefully laid plans have been blown up by his collapse in Iowa. At the moment, I don’t see how he wins New Hampshire. McCain has the maverick thing going for him while Romney is being successfully portrayed as an establishment candidate. All Mitt did tonight was survive when he really needed to knock McCain down a peg or two. He never got a chance thanks to the other candidates who would like to see him out of the race before South Carolina ganging up on him, forcing him into a defensive posture.
But Huckabee and Fred are dreaming if they think Romney is going to go home before he is virtually mathematically eliminated. In Mitt’s case, he will remain the leading conservative alternative as long as Fred’s campaign limps along without his millions to draw on. So it is probable that Romney will remain in the race regardless of his support until a single candidate emerges from this scrum to claim the mantle of prohibitive front runner.
McCain meanwhile, if he wins New Hampshire, moves on to South Carolina where he, Fred, and Huckabee will fight it out. Amazingly, none of those candidates will necessarily have a big money advantage. Romney will spend his fortune but I don’t see him playing well south of Mason Dixon in a primary. I think Fred has a decent shot. But it is more likely that the race will be between McCain and Huckabee. Of those two, you have to like Huckabee’s chances given his built in ground game of churches to get out the vote for him.
From there it’s on to Florida where it will be Rudy’s turn to win or go into Super Tuesday as damaged goods. I don’t know if Giuliani can turn it around at this point but he has some excellent allies in the state and is extremely well organized. The McCain surge may be halted by a SC loss which would help him enormously. Whether he can overcome Huckabee’s advantages with evangelicals will depend on whether Rudy can get his own large group of retired northerners to go to the polls for him.
After that, Super Tuesday and Lord knows what will happen. Maybe Mitt makes a comeback. Maybe McCain shines. Perhaps Rudy steals some of the bigger states. Let’s say Huckabee sweeps the 5 southern primaries.
If you’re thinking “brokered convention” you win a cookie.
10:53 pm
All real political junkies pray for a brokered convention. Two, even.
I cannot abide Romney. Can’t stand him. But the country would probably be safe enough in his hands. Certainly far better off than with the Huckabuffoon. My guy (in your contest) is McCain, but if it’s Romney I won’t feel I have to leave the country. Same with Fred. It might be interesting to elect an actual, living, breathing federalist.
12:42 am
I think Fred knows he isn’t going to do well in NH. I also think his strategy tonight was to sit back and let the other candidates do the damage to themselves while getting in a good point or jab when he could get a word in edgewise. Tomorrow night’s debate should be even more fun.
12:44 am
I thought, too, it was hilarious that he was sitting beside Ron Paul. He was in the right position to be able to smack him upside the head and say “What’s wrong with you?” if necessary. Maybe that’s why Paul sort of behaved himself?
2:12 am
I think that Fred knows NH is so far left that it makes so little sense to even try to play there requires you to almost anything that sounds conservative. Maverick and Paul are more in line with that state in a lot of ways.
McCain won there last time around, but he needed a lot of independents to do it.
With this setup now, it looks like Edwards and Obama will take a large chunk of those voters and Paul will capture the libertarian leaner.
So McCain will be undercut by all of that and Mitt could sneak across the finish line in the process.
9:19 am
In his heart, Huckabee is angling for the VP spot on somebody’s ticket. A brokered convention, if it happened, would be the perfect scenario. In Romney’s case, this would take some of the onus off his Mormonism for those voters who view it as a strange if seemingly well-meaning cult. McCain and Guiliani hope whoever the Democratic nominee is will make them look like tigers when it comes to illegal immigration. Thompson doesn’t have the legs for a presidential campaign. The fire in that belly went out a long time ago.
9:37 am
I suppose I can trust Huckabee’s ‘fiscally conservative’ position had he not governed like a tax-imposing Progressive.
The again, I suppose I can trust Romney when he says that mandating government-mandated health insurance is not forcing Americans to purchase government-mandated health insurance.
On the other hand, I suppose I can trust McCain when he said he did not support amnesty because it really wasn’t amnesty because everyone is all God’s children.
I suppose I can trust Rudy to be tough on border security had he not spent his entire term as NYC mayor fighting INS while doing absolutely nothing about Mohammed Atta’s cell in Brooklyn (I live in NYC)
I suppose I can trust Ron Paul on something (I don’t know what yet) were it not for his belief that Iran doesn’t have an Army when the size of Iran’s army ranks fourth in the world.
When Mayor Guiliani campaigned for Bloomberg just after 9/11, I thought they were for real and could be trusted. I may be a 9/11 convert to Conservatism but I don’t trust anyone who says one thing then does something completely the opposite. Bloomberg told me he would be tough on terror only after he was elected he ended up telling me that ‘Islamic terrorism is no big deal and I should get a life’ then goes down to Washington DC to demand lots of government money because NYC is the world’s target of Islamic terrorism. Oh and he turned into a snotty-nosed Nanny! (It wasn’t until after the election I found out that Bloomberg was a life-long registered Democrat who change parties because he would has gone unnoticed on the Democrat ticket and Rudy went along with the deception)
I am sick and tired of politicos yanking my chain to get my vote.
All that said, I know I can trust Thompson since he isn’t one of those politicians who is yanking my chain about who he is and the priciples which define him.
10:27 am
Why does the MSM say NH is it for Romney
Because, they know it isn’t.
Right now, Romney has the delegate lead with 26. Because NH is being punished for moving up their primary date, they will only have 12 delegates at the convention instead of 24.
NH is a “proportional” state, i.e., delegates get doled out based upon % of votes received (as opposed to MI, SC and FL which are “winner-take-all”).
So even if Romney loses NH to McCain, he will still likely receive 4 delegates to McCain’s 5.
This means that going into Michigan (winner-take-all with 61 delegates) Romney will have a significant delegate lead over the rest of the field.
So Romney can come in second if NH, but if he wins MI, he will then have 91 delegates. The next closest challanger will be Huckabee with 21.
The MSM knows that if THAT happens, it will be hard NOT to admit Romney is the LEADER (by far).
Do the math. Second in NH and first in Michigan and Romney probably wins this thing going away.
10:33 am
Zogby and Suffolk BOTH have Romney SURGING into the lead in NH!
Suffolk has Romney ahead by 3 and Zogby has him ahead by 1. 2 days ago, Zogby had Romney down by 4. Zogby nailed Iowa.
Then you have the crazy outliers like ARG with McCain +14 (who the hell pays those guys?). They also said Clinton would win Iowa by 9 (‘nuff said).
You say you cannot see Romney “winning” NH. Well, as a “proportional” state, he doesn’t need to “win”.
The KEY is Michigan. If Romney loses NH to McCain then loses Michigan to McCain, I agree, he is probably finished. If he loses NH but wins MI (61 delegates, winner-take-all), he is then the prohibitive favorite going into SC.
12:11 pm
Michael said: “I cannot abide Romney. Can’t stand him. But the country would probably be safe enough in his hands.”
That’s about where I am too. I’ve been saying for months, Mitt and Edwards are too of the phoniest candidates I’ve ever seen.
Someone called Huck a “pro-life Carter.” Makes sense, except Huck is likeable. He’s a great campaigner, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
WE JUST CAN’T AFFORD a foreign policy buffoon like Huck or O’Bommah
12:14 pm
In the aftermath of the Iowa Caucas, there are lessons to be learned; and Republican voters must heed them, and soon coalesce around their most formidable candidate. What are these lessons, and who is this candidate? See the answer here:
http://sheetanchor.wordpress.com/2008/01/05/a-house-divided-will-not-stand/
1:09 pm
McCain and Huckabee won’t be able to spin away their actual attacks on Romney this time (like they did in Iowa). Romney compares positions, while McCain and Huckabee engage in personal (and very immature) attacks. It’s very clear to anyone (as long as they don’t have an agenda). The NH voters will see what took place for what it is.
1:38 pm
How much good will Florida do Rudy? Remember that the RNC has taken away half of Florida’s delegates.
As absurd as that is, it’s still not as bad as the Democrats. All of the Democratic candidates have promised to not even campaign in Florida – and the DNC will refuse to seat any delegats from Florida. They’ve disenfranchied the Florida voters far more seriously than any Bush ever did.
2:13 pm
Vote for Change?
Are we bored with what direction we, as a nation, are taking, or are we angry at it, so much that we need change? If we decide we no longer want to drive our cars on the right side of the road, preferring to go left, like most of the Old World, is that the kind of change we seek. Perhaps it is like the fellow who changed the way he combed his hair, parting it from ear to ear instead of front to back. When asked how he liked it, he said it was fine except when people whispered into his nose.
For over sixty years, America has been on a road to change, abandoning its founding principles for something opposite. As we moved further on that road to change, our individual freedoms have vanished, favoring a community-interest based form that gives elected leaders and appointed bureaucrats more decision-making influence on the way we live our lives. The results have proven dismal. We are openly threatening to punish those who create, invent, build and manufacture things people want and are willing to buy. We tax them and regulate them to discourage them from remaining in America. The idea some work hard, produce and are paid for it is challenged by the envious who are not rewarded for their lesser effort and contribution. Are the desired changes a more accelerated run onto a conversion back to Old World ways where the few elite rule the many? It would appear this is true, by how Democrats are campaigning for change, openly suggesting bigger government and smaller people.
The greatest change in the world was what started in America almost 400 years ago, when individual freedom was established. That change tore the world into two parts, where the majority lived under the few who ruled and the other side, America, lifted into an orbit of individual, family and community prosperity through freedom. That change, allowed to spread, could have changed the whole world for the better. The side where the few ruled fought back and waged war on America to rid the world of individual freedom. They have succeeded in taking control of the Democrats and even some so-called moderate Republicans, in order to bring about the change they have worked so hard to bring about. The 2008 elections will be a testimonial to their success at eliminating America’s founding principles and individual liberty finally. 2008 will define the change Americans want now.
The best change of all would be getting off the fast track to the left and getting back to the right side, what America alone has proven the best kind of life for all. That would be a change of direction, but not the change so eagerly sought by those campaigning for President today.
3:29 pm
Sunday Briefing: 01.05.08…
Sunday Briefing: 01.05.08 – 2 Days until the New Hampshire Primary
13 Days until the South Carolina Primary
23 Days until the Florida Primary
30 Days until Super Tuesday
Associated Press:
Romney did not help himself at one point, giving his opponents …
3:39 pm
[...] Rick Moran [...]
8:14 pm
Am I the only one who noticed that Thompson cannot get through a sentence without at least three “um”s? He’s the worst extemporaneous speaker of the bunch.
Other than that, Rick, I pretty much agree with everything you say.
8:45 pm
McCain will be losing his edge in this Primary. The Independents in N.H. will vote for Obama to keep Hildabeast from the nomination. McCain needs these Independents to beat Mitt. Unless the Inds. figure how to screw Hillary and Mitt at the same time, they will need to choose up sides on Tuesday.
Isn’t if funny to think that these loyal DemoCraps have turned not only from Hillary but they are also saying we don’t want Bill back either! This will not set well with Bill, heads will roll.
10:25 pm
What Reynolds said at #1.
10:28 pm
Except that I don’t think Romney’s that horrible.
2:21 pm
I think we only win in November with McCain the nominee. That sort of pains me b/c he’s been so wrong on so many issues. But better half-a-loaf then no loaf with the Democrats and being stuck with the bill to boot.
So I hope McCain picks a VP running-mate that’s out of the box. How about JC Watts or Michael Steele? See Obama fight that.