The fat lady has been canceled. The obit in the New York Times has been pulled. Funereal flower arrangements have been replanted. Behests have been returned.
And a moribund candidacy, coming to life at last, can boast that famous Mark Twain retort “Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.”
Fred Thompson is alive and well and surging in South Carolina.
The latest Rasmussen poll shows Fred Thompson in a statistical tie for second place:
Over the past several days, the only real movement in South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary has been a four-point gain for Fred Thompson and a five-point decline for Mike Huckabee.The big winner from that trade-off is John McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain at 28%, Huckabee at 19%, Mitt Romney at 17%, and Fred Thompson at 16%. Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are tied with 5% support. Giuliani is betting his entire campaign on a strong showing in Florida, where he is now tied for the lead with three others. ...
There has been much talk about Thompson going easy on McCain in the debate and in TV appearances since then. Yesterday on CNN’s Late Edition, Fred barely laid a glove on McCain. This has led to some spurious rumors that Thompson is a stalking horse for McCain and will drop out after South Carolina and endorse the Arizonian, being rewarded with the Vice Presidential nomination later.
That’s not quite how I see it.
It makes sense for Fred to lay off McCain until after Michigan. If his friend can knock off Romney in the state of his birth, even Daddy Warbucks would have to concede his candidacy is virtually finished. After Michigan, Fred would be free to go after McCain’s immigration record – a very easy task and one that would resonate powerfully with South Carolina voters.
Even if he doesn’t go after McCain, Romney might do it for him, seeing a Thompson win as the only way he stays viable into Florida.
A Thompson victory in South Carolina would essentially mean there would have been 4 major primaries with 3 different winners. This would mean on to Florida for everyone. Even a strong second by Thompson may tempt him to go on to Florida where Fred has also seen an uptick in his support, finding himself just 8 points out of the lead.
Okay, so it’s only 4 point surge. But it is a surge nonetheless and if it denotes momentum on Thompson’s part, watch out. The biggest hurdle Thompson has now is convincing people it is not too late to vote for him. The fact that a sizable number of South Carolinians have made that decision is heartening.
Someone pass the word to the eulogist to stand down. Fred ain’t dead yet.
UPDATE
Allah continues his torture of Fredheads. What is truly remarkable is that the Fredheads keep coming back for more. It’s like Allah has them trained to give a Pavlovian response to his sly insults and clever bon mots.
Allah evidently still doesn’t think Fred has much of a chance and I’d agree. But his prospects have improved since last week – even Allah would have to admit that. And given the utter weirdness of this primary season, I say that anything can and probably will happen before all is said and done. Whether that lightening strikes Fred or not is another matter.
UPDATE: “10 at 10” Drive for a Million
C’Mon Fredheads. We’re almost there. Less than $30,000 to reach that million dollar goal (that was originally a $540,000 goal and then a $750,000 goal). Last Thursday, we had about $400,000 in the tank of the little red pickup. Now we’re kissing a mil thanks to your generosity and Fred’s building momentum.
If we all give just $10 at 10:00 PM tonight, we’ll smash that million dollar barrier so that Fred can blanket the airwaves in South Carolina with his positive message of true conservatism.
UPDATE: “WE’RE GOING TO NEED A BIGGER TRUCK…”
At around 8:15 PM central time, the campaign surpassed their $1,000,000 goal.
The website is crashing. The videos on the site won’t load because of the heavy traffic. The campaign is turning people away from events an hour before Fred makes his appearance.
TOO LATE MY ASS!
6:06 pm
Honestly Fred! is the only one I will vote for in either the primary or the general election.
So, it really doesn’t matter to me what the polls say.
Based on the differing results in all the states thus far, I would say that Fred! has as good a chance as any to be the candidate that breaks out. And judging by the surge in SC after that stellar debate performance last week I would say that the odds are increasing.
6:10 pm
The reason we keep going back is because Bryan has hopped on the Fred train.
Team Fred might have finally set a goal that we can’t reach; $1 million in the race-trim version of the red truck by midnight Eastern. They’re $30,990 short with just under 6 hours to go.
6:14 pm
How much of a surge? We don’t really know. We do know just how accurate polls have been at late. And good point, Allah is very smooth. But I have his number and he doesn’t bother me.
6:19 pm
[...] Rightwing Nuthouse who echoes what I said last week. [...]
6:42 pm
Careful, Rick, you don’t want to start sounding like Hugh Hewitt (though you’d have a very long way to go :). If you’ve had time to write about it, then intrade.com has had time to digest it (among other things) At 6:38pm est:
McCain 53 (+14.6)
Huck (‘Field’) 40 (-10.5)
Fred 5.0 (-2.5)
Mitt 3.1 (-2.3)
Of course the market can be wrong as it was w/Hillary in NH, and it all changes based on MI results. I can see McCain or Huck getting a SC bounce out of MI, but I don’t quite see how Fred gets a bounce.
I think I’ll stick to my previously-written obit.
6:54 pm
I sincerely hope the Fred surge is working, and that he will prevail as the GOP nominee.
The MSM has, until this point, pretty much ignored him, because he isn’t:
1) A MSM ‘maverick’ (McCain).
2) A MSM ‘come from behind’ (Huckabee).
3) A MSM ‘match up’ (Guiliani).
4) A MSM ‘what the hell happened? (Romney).
As a conservative, I want substance, not symbolism…I want red meat, not tofu…I want well thought out positions on the issues that affect us as a country.
To me, the choice is very clear as to who the GOP nominee should be.
7:18 pm
[...] However, my friend Rick Moran sees it like this: There has been much talk about Thompson going easy on McCain in the debate and in TV appearances since then. Yesterday on CNN’s Late Edition, Fred barely laid a glove on McCain. This has led to some spurious rumors that Thompson is a stalking horse for McCain and will drop out after South Carolina and endorse the Arizonian, being rewarded with the Vice Presidential nomination later. [...]
8:18 pm
Romney/Thompson Ticket for 2008.
8:44 pm
McCain and Fred on the same ticket?
McCain + Thompson = 136
Do they come with prunes?
9:28 pm
Jeff,
Careful dude, there aren’t enough yuts in the population to overtake AARP.
9:42 pm
There definitely is something the pundits have missed thus far. I had thought we might not make the $1 million goal by midnight; I was only off by 3 3/4 hours.
No, it’s not the $5 million in a day that Romney and Paul pulled off. Then again, what did their millions get them? No wins in every contested state thus far.
10:55 pm
FRED
!
Awesome, he’s at $1,022,000 as of 10:55 on the east.
12:46 am
I admire the faith of the FredHeads but I think it is for naught and will be a tough pill to swallow when he pulls out.
1:20 am
Watching the meter on Fred’s truck go up this past week is my new favorite thing to do.
Obviously it isn’t too late at all.
Go Fred!
4:24 am
Here’s my problem(s) with Fred:
1. Every time I hear Fred speak, I just expect…”more”. I expect the clear-spoken, hard-hitting “tough-but-fair” character he has always played on TV and in the Movies.
But I find that there is just somethng about him that leaves me …bored. I can’t think of any other word. He just seems to have no zip. It’s like he doesn’t really really really want the job (he said he didn;t so I guess that makes sense).
2. He has NO requisite experience at all. None. Zip. Zero. Don’t believe me? Ok, name for me 5 things Fred Thompson has achieved in his professional life that qualify him to be the planet’s #1 Executive?
I’ve asked this question on pro-Fred blogs before and have to this point never received more than 2.
CONCLUSION:
Fred is a nice guy and a reasonably good conservative (although the man admittedly doesn’t even attend church), but he has two glaring problems: 1) he is DULL, 2) he has NO EXPERIENCE.
Think about this. Usually, someone with the kind of outstanding management skills required to be POTUS would have sought out management positions throughout life. Their resume would drip with “lead this” and “managed that” and “spear-headed the other”, but Fred has NONE of that. Name for me Fred’s 5 greatest accomplishments while in the Senate. See you can’t. He IS NOT a leader.
Great managers are built over time and tested in the fires of reality. Fred wants us to believe that just because he can spin a good yarn, refuse to raise his hand in a debate and is a good conservative, he is qualified to manage. I’m not buying it.
The ONE THING Fred HAS MANAGED that we can evalute is HIS CAMPAIGN. If THAT is any indication of his skillset, we would be in deep trouble with him as POTUS.
4:31 am
All that being said, I so believe he would make a fine VP to Romney. He could learn management from Romney (who has HUGE experience in that area) and he would provide the conservative “gravitas” Romney lacks.
Romney does tend to pander (and I like Romney so I’m being serious here) and I think he could learn a thing or two from Fred about not doing that.
All-in-all, a Romney/Thompson ticket would be well-balanced. Also, to this point, Romney and Thompson have taken very few “shots” at each other except for the occasional “and I though I was the only actor on the stage” comment in the debates.
8:45 am
What good is a manager who has no principles to fall back on when times get tough?
For example, how can one be for smaller government while at the same time insisting the government will come to your rescue? Romney is a fine man however, despite all his money and management skills he is having a tough time rallying people to his cause.
Rudy’s a good manager too, however he’s the one who managed to encourage me to vote for Nanny Bloomberg, the very worst patsy of them all.
Perhaps is just because I live in Left Coast lunacy surrounded by pretty-boy metrosexuals who spend all their time at the beauty parlor, I am attracted to Fred’s rugged individualism. To my ear, his voice bellows masculinity and looks are the last thing I want to base my vote on.
Fred! makes me feel calm in an otherwise nervous crowd; leaders aren’t managers, hand-raisers or new-age light bulb changers.
If you want to know about Fred’s lifetime of achievements go to Fred08.com, the list is too long for me to take the time to list.
10:57 am
Fred’s up 0.1 to 4.2 in SC on intrade! WOOHOO!!
5:10 pm
Okay, Bill here you go:(paraphrased from his website)
Attended Memphis State and Vanderbilt.
Thompson campaigned for Goldwater and, after graduating from law school, returned to Lawrenceburg to hang his shingle. Along the way, he founded a Young Republican Club, the first in an area of a state that was decidedly Democrat, and earned a seat on the county’s Republican Executive Committee.
Met then governor Ronald Reagan in 1968 and was hooked on Reagan thereafter.
Thompson was named an assistant United States attorney in Nashville, where he earned the reputation as a tough prosecutor.
Helped manage U.S. Senator Howard Baker’s re-election campaign.
Involved in the Watergate scandal as minority counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee.
He is the person who uttered the line “What did the he know and when did he know it?”
He maintained law offices in Nashville and Washington. His practice varied from pro bono work to representing the state of Tennessee and large corporations, such as Westinghouse.
Thompson represented Marie Ragghianti after she turned to him after being fired from her position as chairman of the Tennessee Parole Board during the administration of Gov. Ray Blanton. Thompson confirmed that her firing was due to her refusal to release prison felons who had bribed Blanton aides to buy their freedom. Blanton additionally set his media friends on her, smearing her reputation.
Thompson filed a suit challenging Marie Ragghianti’s dismissal. Later, she recalled for a reporter, “He told me that it was a real pleasure to represent someone that was the good guy. Which didn’t mean that he was convinced we were gonna win. But anyway, he did a fine job, to put it mildly.â€
In fact, a jury found in July, 1978, that Gov. Blanton had fired her “arbitrarily and capriciously†and ordered her reinstatement with an award of $38,000 for back pay. Ragghianti’s case would garner national attention, along with the publication of a book titled, simply, Marie. The book was later made into a film by the same name, in which Thompson was asked by the producers to portray himself.
Marie launched Thompson’s longstanding film and television career. Over the years, he’s appeared in more than 18 films, including No Way Out, In the Line of Fire, Die Hard II, Days of Thunder and The Hunt for Red October. Recently, he has become known for his portrayal of New York District Attorney Arthur Branch on the hit NBC show, Law & Order.
Between roles, Thompson continued his work as an attorney and public servant.
He served as special counsel to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1980 and the Senate Intelligence Committee in 1982. As an attorney, the founding “first principle†of the rule of law had shaped his life.
Thompson ran to fill the remaining two years of an unexpired Senate term. It was a tough race; his Democrat opponent was a 6 term Congressman. Thompson refused to play by the establishment’s political rules. Down 20 points in the polls, Thompson undertook what has become a legendary campaign. Driving a red pickup truck, he took to the highways and back roads of the Volunteer State, talking to Tennessee citizens from the back of what became the symbol of his campaign. He said it made him comfortable—taking him back to the days of his Dad’s used car lot in Lawrenceburg.
Thompson spoke about the need for a competent and ethical federal government, reminding voters of the importance of self-government and lower taxes. His effort paid off, and the message took. He moved from 20 points down to winning by 20 points. Thompson’s margin of victory and his independent approach to campaigning was not lost in a year where the GOP was swept into leadership in “Contract with America†sweep that year.
Two years later, in 1996, the people of Tennessee returned him to office with more votes than any candidate for any office in the state’s history. Voters seemed to like the lawmaker they’d elected who had an independent streak.
During his time in the Senate, Thompson focused on three key areas: lowering our taxes, strengthening national security, and what the American-Statesman called “the unglamorous work of trying to expose waste†and to change the federal government.
As Chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, Thompson enacted a law that required federal agencies to calculate and report the cost of regulations on taxpayers and businesses.
Press reports stated: “He put heat on federal agencies by holding hearings on mismanagement and by asking them to tote up the improper payments they made each year.†That added up to about $20 billion in taxpayer dollars. His efforts saved taxpayers more than $2 billion in 2005-06 alone at the Department of Health and Human Services.
He published a report, “Government on the Brink,†(Volume 1 and Volume 2) detailing the waste, fraud, and abuse of federal agencies as well as the management challenges facing the incoming Bush Administration. Paul Light, a New York University professor and leading expert on government, said, “I consider him to be one of the most dedicated overseers of the executive branch of the last 25 years.â€
In 1997, as chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, he opened an investigation into attempts by the Chinese government to influence America policies and elections through, among other means, financing election campaigns. The investigation identified at least six Democrat donors and fundraisers, with ties to the Clinton Administration, who had laundered or aided in the laundering and distribution of foreign money into Democrat political party coffers. The investigation also exposed two Democrat Party donors with “a long-term relationship with a Chinese intelligence agency,” according to the Senate committee’s report.
In his eight years, Thompson, who served on the Finance Committee, supported and worked to enact three major tax-cut bills, reducing the federal tax burden on all of us.
As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Thompson focused on the threat of nuclear proliferation and technology transfers that could damage American industrial and national security.
While a vocal supporter of free trade, Thompson has also fought to link free trade to our national security interests. For example, when voting to grant full-trading status to China, Senator Thompson fought unsuccessfully to include an amendment in the bill that would have required the president to impose sanctions against China if it violated nuclear-nonproliferation agreements.
Thompson also served on the Intelligence Committee at a time when it examined the failings in intelligence and analysis leading into the September 11th terrorist attacks, as well as the reforms needed to better prepare for future threats.