For the Republicans, South Carolina ended up clarifying what previously had been a muddle.
With John McCain’s narrow but significant win over Mike Huckabee, the Arizona senator has now become the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination. Only a Rudy Giuliani win in Florida would put the issue in doubt. And Rudy’s chances in the Sunshine state may have just gotten considerably longer thanks to McCain’s South Carolina victory.
McCain is the only GOP candidate so far to receive a significant bounce from a primary win. His New Hampshire victory has propelled him to front runner status nationally and has given him momentum in every state that has been polling since that contest. Huckabee, by contrast, has not benefited much from his Iowa win, finishing distant thirds in New Hampshire and Michigan and 4th in Nevada. His second place in South Carolina was a defeat due to the fact that in a state tailor made for his candidacy – a large evangelical population in the first southern primary – the former Arkansas governor received barely 30% of the vote.
Romney’s Michigan win translated into a 4th place in South Carolina, the only contested race of the day. His Nevada win, while garnering him delegates, was a foregone conclusion since he and Ron Paul were the only candidates who bothered to campaign there. Plus, Romney’s national numbers barely moved as a result of his Michigan victory.
McCain will not get the same kind of bounce out of South Carolina but he doesn’t need it. A 3-5 point boost will almost certainly give him victory in Florida. Appearing on my radio show last night, Ed Morrissey believes that Giuliani can win Florida and then go into Super Tuesday on February 5 with enough momentum that he can capture the “winner take all states” to put him in the lead in the race for delegates. This has been Rudy’s strategy all along but McCain may just have foiled it with his win in South Carolina.
Will Rudy still be seen as electable in 48 hours? I believe over the next week you will see a decisive movement toward McCain in Florida and elsewhere as GOP voters seem to settle on a candidate. Romney, who in some polls is close in Florida (others, not so close) will blanket the state with millions in advertising. It may be enough to give him another second place, moving past Giuliani. But McCain is hitting his stride as a campaigner, drawing large, enthusiastic crowds. Unless he stumbles, I just don’t think either Romney or Giuliani can knock him off.
There is still a chance for Romney after Super Tuesday. If he can steal a couple of states and finish second almost everywhere else, he can emerge to go one on one with McCain the rest of the way. With a huge money advantage (McCain is taking federal matching funds and is extremely limited), there is a slight chance that Romney could overtake him or win enough delegates to deny him a first ballot nomination. This scenario is not out of the question especially if Huckabee, who will almost certainly stay in the race through Super Tuesday, ends up winning 4 or 5 southern states. This would make Huckabee a kingmaker -a role I’m sure he would relish.
Regardless, someone has to show that they can knock McCain off before the Arizona senator loses his status as the Anointed One. And unless Rudy or Mitt can do it in Florida, it appears that John McCain will coast to the nomination fairly easily.
9:29 am
I’m not voting for McCain.
I’ll vote a straight Democratic ticket. “Americans” want a socialist who’ll destroy the country? I can help give them that, and not provide an ounce of cover by putting RINO’s back in. Let them “get it good and hard”, as Mencken would say, dipped in ground glass and no lube.
Maybe after a generation living like Eastern Europe under the Russians, this country will realize a few fundamental truths.
Time to put this country back into the crucible, refine out the slag, and remake it.
10:29 am
Well, the party seems to be reverting back to its old ways. Bob Dole anyone?
Actually, given the uphill struggle it is likely to be to take the White House in what appears to be a Democratic year, putting forward a long-time Senator to lose gracefully may be the best strategy. Four years (or eight?) in the opposition might help the party decide what it really stands for, and resolve the tensions between the social conservatives and the fiscal and defense conservatives.
Besides, having the Democrats actually take executive authority might make them take the war against the jihadists and their fellow travelers seriously. That would be a good thing for the country and their party, though it might also split the Democrats from much of their base.
But voters faced with a choice of a Democrat versus a nominal Republican who plays me-too on a number of key issues to remain popular with the Washington insiders, can anyone see them choosing the Dem-lite over the real thing?
10:33 am
I won’t vote for Juan either. I can’t say I will vote for either of the Dims. But I can use the write in option to cast a protest vote for a conservative.
Unlike the people of SC, I don’t have amnesia. I remember John McLiar’s record and I don’t trust or respect him one bit more than I trust or respect the Democrats. So, all things being equal I won’t vote for a man who filed as a Republican but has never behaved as a Republican. I’m sorry, I just cannot do that.
11:01 am
Great analysis, Rick. I think the Giuliani train has been derailed. Granted, he didn’t compete in South Carolina, but 2%?
Love the drama queens telling us they’d rather have Hillary.
11:12 am
For the love of all that’s holy, grow up. McCain ain’t perfect—and I plan on voting against him in the primaries—but he’s still a damn sight better than Shrillary, Obambi, or Silky Pony.
Try to remember the usual relationship between the perfect and the good.
11:17 am
Since Fred Thompson did not pull out a win in South Carolina, I will be pulling for Romney and after that Guiliani. Maybe I am just naive, but I refuse to believe that Republicans would give the nomination to McCain. It would be like having 2 Democrats in the general election running against each other.
11:42 am
Voting democratic to “teach America a lession” is dumber then voting democratic because your a socialist coolaid drinker. Though I wish it weren’t so, I personally expect Hillary to be our next president. Too many cry baby so-called conservative’s seeking platform purity have been alienated but the fumble-footed Republican party and are getting politically suicidal.
All you cry baby conservatives need to butch up and do the right thing. Then if the worst is realized at least you can say you did your part. If a die hard social con like me can stand behind any of the candidates as badly as my ilk gets treated these days surely the rest of you can.
12:19 pm
Let’s see- you had draft dodger Clinton win twice against war heroes George HW Bush and Dole and the Goreacle and traitor Lurch nearly win against Dubya. With the media oeverwhelmingly on their side will either sHrillary or Obambi lose against old man war hero RINO McCain? Say it ain’t so. You’re supposed to feel guilty if you keep the first woman or black out of WH?
If what I’ve read is accurate down the road, whoever gets in will have to deal with some deep doo doo. http://www.thegreatbustahead.com We are living in interesting times. I don’t like McCain but no way do I ever want the dems in white house either. The potential for a flood of far left judges being appointed is bad enough. Who are all those people who already pay no income taxes and are promised more fed largesse going to opt for a their leaders? No voter ID results in how many felons and illegal aliens voting dem? How many women will automatically cheer for a sister? Ugh.
12:23 pm
All Fred is doing by staying in is denying Mitt between 5-15 points per state of conservatives who would vote for him. Fred is now just helping McCain. If people are actually interested in stopping liberals like Huckabee and McAmnesty, they need to vote Romney.
12:25 pm
I’m a conservative, and a McCain guy. I came late to the party, because of McCain’s shortcomings. But the next President needs to straighten out our policies with respect to jihad and start doing something to get entitlements under control. McCain is best positioned on both of those issues, from a conservative perspective. He is also the only one in the field with the courage to tackle these problems head on. He is pro-life, pro-traditional marriage (although, like Thompson, objects on dubious federalist grounds to a federal marriage amendment), and pledges to nominate conservative judges (he will have to be held to that one). He has been far more consistent in his positions than Romney, far closer to the Reagan vision of limited government than Huckabee, and is far closer to embracing traditional values than Giuliani. And I am damned sure we won’t see LBJ-style growth in government spending over the next four years if McCain is in the White House.
Plus, in what is likely to be a bad Republican year, he can win (leads both Clinton and Obama in the polls).
12:48 pm
I’m still hoping Fred stays in. He has been improving his standing in each contest. If he can stay through Super Tuesday, I think he still has a chance. I don’t trust Romney or Giuliani one bit, especially on the Second Amendment. However, I will hold my nose and vote Republican rather than give it all to the Dems. What HE HATE ME said about judges is enough in and of itself to make me do that. The thought of another generation of liberal activist judges on the federal benches gives me the willies. GW has only started to redress this with his appointments. Allowing the Dems to undo all of this should make everyone vote GOP, almost regardless of who the candidate is. And there are still the House and Senate races. Republicans staying home in protest during the last election is what, IMO, gave the Dems control of the House and Senate.
12:58 pm
Sorry the ‘hold your nose and vote for a liberal to stop another liberal’ campaign isn’t working for me. Polls are meaningless just last month Polls said that Rudy was the only candidate leading the race.
Perhaps McCain supporters might want to consider that they’re the ones who are screwing the GOP Conservatives and should demand McCain get out of the race so that Hillary can be stopped. McCain has been in office for years yet for all this he bashed the military as torturers, trashed Rumsfeld, attempted to take cedit for what Gen. Petreaus and our fine military accomplished, voted against drilling in Anwar, did the back-door amnesty behind closed doors, intruded upon the 1st amendment, did nothing about entitlement programs, was a member of the Gang of 14, sided often with Kennedy and is a huge fan of Al Gore’s Greenie fad.
Plus, for a ‘pro-life’ guy he managed to gain quite a few ‘pro-abortion’ votes so if this is the case Guiliani is a much better candidate than McCain.
Quite frankly, I’m sick and tired of all the religious fundies be they Socialist, Environmentalist, Christians, Jews, Muslims or whatever faith telling me that their ‘issues’ are all that matter.
I seriously do not see any difference between a McCain in office and Hillary in office so this time around I’m not holding my nose.If Americans need a high Misery Index let them get it through a Democrat.
1:37 pm
What you may call being a crybaby, I call being principled.
John McCain does not represent conservative principles.
And there isn’t a handful of difference between him and the Democrats.
If McCain is to win, he will have to do it without me. I will not vote for a Democrat either, but I can write in a vote for a true conservative.
3:00 pm
If McCain is the nominee, I sit it out.
No Rino’s for me.
3:15 pm
I am simply amazed at McCain winning such a conservative state like SC. Do these people follow politics? Do they not know McCain was the father of the Amnesty Bill we fought hard to defeat? We just as well might be better off electing a Dem in the long run and wait for a REAL conservative in 4 years..
3:43 pm
If McCain gets the nomination, it will be exaclty like Dole, only worse. Guaranteed win for the Dems.
4:52 pm
I’ll be sitting on the side lines if McCain is the nominee. So will millions of others. There are several people I WILL not cast a vote for. McCain, Graham and Martinez are the main ones. I simply cannot contribute to the decline of America by voting for the Lesser of two evils. When the Republican Party returns to it’s Reagan roots I will be there to support it.
4:53 pm
GOP Voters Cast Ballots in S.C. Primary…
South Carolina is seen as a crucial early voting state: Its primary has consistently foretold the Re…
5:21 pm
Tom Kelly sings McChachu’s praises. Well, Tom, tell that to the families of over 1,700 American POWs left in Vietnam. Explain to them how he is so strong on saving us money, how his traditional values on marriage allowed him to walk out on the wife that waited for his all those years he was a guest of the NVC at the Hanoi Hilton and who never stopped fighting to get him returned. Tell them your story.
Then explain to me, how a man who has consistantly fought his own party and joined the left side of the aisle will appoint constructionist judges to the SCOTUS. Explain to me how we could be drilling in ANWAR if it hadn’t failed by one vote, McCain’s vote. Explain to me how, a man who has been in D.C. for so long didn’t manage to cut much pork from the bills presented but damn sure managed to get McCain/Feingold through that gave us George Soros and the 527s.
I will be waiting.
5:59 pm
The people who say they’ll vote Democrat because lazy Fred got what he deserved are the ones you see sans noses, the olefactory organ having been bitten off to spite their faces.
6:50 pm
I don’t know how many of you are actively involved in local politics. If you are and are a Republican you have to be aware of the surge by RINOS in almost every position of power. Here in Ohio where I am very much involved in local politics, the Republican Party is on life support. Party leaders are wimps and totally deficient testicularly speaking. Conservatives are losing or have lost influence, and party enthusiasm is practically non existent. It is times like this that people like McCain are most acceptable.
7:45 pm
McCain is really only conservative on a handful of issues. He’s pro-life (just like most of the other Republican nominees) and hawkish in the GWOT (just like most other Republican nominees). What reason do I have to vote FOR him? Because Hillary or Obama would be worse? I’m not even sure that that’s true. I actually think it will be a good lesson for his most ardent supporters to see the base drop out from under him if he becomes the nominee. I personally would never vote for any candidate who wants amnesty for illegal immigrants. And that includes McCain. McCain would forever ruin the Republican Party, and even more importantly, America. And if anyone thinks I’m alone in thinking like this, wait and see what happens if he becomes the nominee and has no real conservatives there to support him.
8:02 pm
Mitt Romney is a miracle worker. He will win the Republican base, defeat Billary, and take apart Washington. He is the only man who can get this job done. A few years ago, he was a successful CEO, turning around failing businesses and CREATING jobs. From there, he took the 2002 Olympics from a huge deficit to a large surplus in less than a year. He made it possible for every person in Mass. to get private health insurance—-not government handout insurance—-and he will END illegal immigration. He has the best of the best foreign relations consultants, and knows how to work with people. He is known for his cool temper (just ask his 5 sons!) and has impeccable morals. Mitt Romney is the MAN
8:57 pm
I’d still not vote for him.
His amnesty push and “campaign reform” along the continuous backstabbing of the Republican party are not to be forgiven.
10:27 pm
Edward Cropper says, “Conservatives are losing or have lost influence, and party enthusiasm is practically non existent. It is times like this that people like McCain are most acceptable.”
Just the opposite actually. Supporting McCain when you’re already marginalized is simply throwing in the towel. The only way the establishment RINOs will be stymied in their influence against conservatism is to throw their preferred candidate under the bus—as often as it takes (and it won’t take long with what we’ll get with the D’s in charge all around).
If McCain or Huckabee are the nominee, I’ll not vote for them—I’m not quite to the “pulling a Dem lever” yet, but November is a long way off still. Indeed, as I think about it, a 70% plus win by the Dems would just about run the RINOs out on a rail for good.
10:35 pm
I’ve been posting this the last couple days at other sites. Am I crazy or is this a possibility?
Here’s the scenario:
We go to convention with no apparent leader. Delegates are split everywhere. There are anti-McCain people everywhere (even though he’s the favorite, but not the clear majority), the conservatives will never support Rudy, and Mitt may put some Southern states at risk (although he has a shot to regain Michigan), so Mitt can’t be the candidate. Huckabee’s support from the social right weakens over the spring and he carries very strong support from a very small minority of delegates.
One other thing to consider is that the Rush Limbaugh’s and Mark Levin’s will beat the living daylights out of McCain over the next six months if he becomes the favorite. McCain will be a weakened candidate with his own base to the highest degree.
There’s one person that most everyone likes (except maybe some Huckabee people), but he wasn’t dynamic enough and he didn’t campaign as hard as others. Fred comes back from the dead because he at least is someone every else can settle on and he’s able to counter Hillary/Obama on every issue (as opposed to be on the same side of the Dems with immigration, abortion, etc.) and up to this point, he can handle debates better than the others. If he has stayed in through SupTues, he also may have been able to win a couple small Southern states.
I know this may sound like wishful thinking from a FredHead (which I am), but I also think it’s a possible as anything else as I think a brokered convention is very, very possible (I was thinking this before Christmas, even if Fred had done well).
One other thing I think that no one else mentions is Bloomberg will probably run. I’d bet it’s at least 50/50 if not closer to 75/25 he’ll run. His ego is too big not for him to run and the last time I checked, he has a little bit of $$ to throw into a campaign. In doing this, he weakens the Democrat candidate severely (especially if it’s Hill) and the Republicans aren’t as weak as predicted.
Does anyone else think either of these are possible or am I whistling past the graveyard?
One thing I do know is that recent elections rarely finish the way they start and the races are very fluid. Conventional wisdom today will probably be completely different in six months. If that wasn’t true, we’d already have settled on Hill vs. Rudy for the general.
11:19 am
Fascinating discussion.
Let me say right up front that I’ll support any of the GOP contenders who is nominated. To argue that any of them is no different than Hillary or Obama is absurd. Get out and meet some people on the left if you think that. Even Giuliani is 100 times better than Hillary or Obama.
I also want to say that I would support a limited government conservative if there was one in the race (other than Ron Paul, who loses me on the gold standard and foreign policy). There isn’t. Fred Thompson could have worn that mantle, and won my support, but he jumped into the pool with a belly flop and then couldn’t swim. In fact, I would like nothing more than to see McCain grab Fred’s position papers when Fred drops and adopt them. Plus put Fred in the cabinet as AG (along with Phil Gramm at Treasury).
But, as a famous columnist wrote recently, you gotta run political campaigns with the politicians you have. We have four: McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani.
The “enthusiasm” of conservatives for Romney just baffles me. He’s been on every side of every issue. In 2007 he denounced the health care bill he pushed in Massachusetts in 2006. Where will he be in 2009? Huckabee is a solid social conservative but has a very Bushian view of the role of government (i.e., he likes it too much) and appears to be ignorant of foreign affairs. Giuliani is pro-choice and has a history of being very fond of government power, at least when he is exercising it. He is also very close to the folks who got us into Iraq to promote “democracy”.
Yeah, I disagree with McCain on campaign finance reform. I disagree with some of the positions he has taken on environmental issues (being from Minnesota, I’m used to disagreeing with Republican elected officials on those issues). And I disagree with his decision to work with Kennedy, rather than with his fellow Republicans, on immigration (which he has now recanted). But I agree with McCain on the need to fight jihad both forcefully and intelligently, and the need to avoid bankrupting our government over the next 30 years. Those are the central issues. And he is an honest and courageous man. I’m not looking for a guy who can check the right boxes on a survey or who is buddies with the GOP power elite—we’ve had that for seven years. I’m looking for somebody who will get the big things right and get something done about them.
I agree about Dave on the conventional wisdom, especially this year. In two weeks there may be a “stop Giuliani” or “stop Romney” effort underway. We won’t know who the nominee is going to be until long after Feb. 5, and we won’t know who the next President is going to be until at least election night.
9:26 am
It will be the moderate/independent voters who will be sans nose if they do not understand how their votes will end up getting a Democrat elected.
I live in the Left Coast Land of NYC and Guiliani is running behind McCain, one would think the moderate/independents here would at least get behind the man who turned around the self-created Liberal hellhole after he took office and who managed to keep NYC from plundering into madness days after the attack on 9/11.
For me that fact that NYers (most of whom believe that anyone right of Stalin is a Nazi) are gunning for McCain tells me that McCain isn’t as moderate as he claims to be; I suppose McCain’s argument that America uses torture at Gitmo, trashes Rumsfeld, trashes Big Parma, trashes hard-working legal citizens as lazy people, voted against ANWAR, sides with Kennedy on just about everything, hates talk-radio along with freedom of speech and supports Al Gore’s Greenie-banning regime attracts so many ‘moderates’ in NY to McCain’s campaign.