Mike Huckabee continues to win southern primaries, taking the Louisiana contest yesterday while also demonstrating strength in the bible belt by taking the Kansas caucuses. Not only does the Huckster reveal his strength by winning these races, at the same time he shows the entire world McCain’s crippling weakness.
The frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president cannot win the base of his own party.
Losing the south in November would be tantamount to a realignment. Regardless of which candidate wins the nomination on the other side, a northern Democrat will have defeated a Republican in the south for the first time since 1960 when John Kennedy won 7 southern states, including all states in the deep south except Florida (Alabama ended up splitting its vote in the electoral college). To say that would represent a sea change in electoral politics would be a huge understatement. Without the south, Republicans may as well get used to the idea that they will be a minority party for a very long time.
McCain’s problems have gone far beyond the tactical necessity of winning over conservatives. He faces a strategic dilemma of the first magnitude. And Mike Huckabee isn’t making things any easier for him.
Huckabee is making the case loud and clear that he deserves the second spot on the ticket. By embarrassing McCain in the south, Huckabee reveals McCain’s electoral dysfunction – and his desperation. His well-known appeal to independents is based on the fact that he is not a doctrinaire, hard core conservative. What would happen to his independent/moderate base if he were to choose a rabid social conservative like Huckabee whose past statements on everything from gays to women’s rights leave the ticket wide open to devastating attacks by the Democrats?
Such a ticket might help in the south. But everywhere else, it would damage McCain’s own base of support among the indies thus causing him to lose states that he will absolutely need in order to defeat the Democratic nominee.
If one were to overlay a map from the 2000 election on top of a map from the 2004 election, you would see that it is almost identical. Only one state switched from red to blue and 2 states from blue to red.
But McCain’s problems come into stark relief if you were to overlay a map of Democratic gains in the 2006 mid terms. The mountain west states of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada are looking bluer all the time. Iowa seems lost as does Ohio. The GOP has virtually disappeared in the northeast. Meanwhile, those blue states got a lot bluer.
In practical terms, McCain has a whole lot more territory to defend than his opponents. This frees the Democrats to target those states mentioned above and perhaps some others in the upper south like Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri.
Only McCain’s appeal to independents might yet save the day because Republicans, with McCain running, will have some rich targets of their own to go after. Suddenly, the upper midwest – where Bush lost some very close races – looks to be in play. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and perhaps even Michigan might be had for the taking. Pennsylvania also becomes a possible GOP target. And with McCain’s popularity in New Hampshire, New England comes back into play for the GOP.
All of that might be moot if McCain is forced to choose Huckabee as his running mate. This is not to say that the Arizona senator shouldn’t choose a good conservative – I think that’s a foregone conclusion. But a conservative with a lot less baggage would be better than a Huckabee whose shameless pandering to the religious right would not sit well in states where McCain has a chance for a breakthrough.
So McCain’s dilemma is simple; does he choose a running mate who can help him in the south but hurts him elsewhere? Or does he choose a candidate whose impact on the south is unknown but will almost certainly aid him in blue states?
No doubt they will ponder those questions in the McCain camp long and hard before reaching a decision.
2:21 pm
Huckabee takes Kansas, CNN projects…
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will win the Kansas Republican caucuses, CNN projects.
...
2:23 pm
I have an idea for the convention,draft Zell Miller.
3:19 pm
This is killing us. How do we fix this? How can we fight when our most experienced members are leaving us in droves?
I think it’s because these guys have all broken the law and they know it’s coming back to bite them in the ass.
“WASHINGTON — In the last week of January, five members of Congress joined the hottest demographic group on Capitol Hill: Republicans who are heading for the exits….....
...........”It’s become an epidemic,” said David Johnson, a Republican consultant and strategist based in Atlanta.
While some members, such as Hulshof, are leaving to pursue new political opportunities, most observers say that the mass departures are the result of the loss of Republican control in the 2006 elections, lackluster fundraising and low morale.â€
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/27125.html
3:34 pm
Ugh. The very notion of a McCain/Huckabee ticket just made me throw up in my mouth, a little. Especially since the slimy Huckster qualifies as neither “good” nor “conservative.”
I’d rather see somebody like Michael Steele or J.C. Watts as the undercard for the Republican ticket, myself.
4:20 pm
The theory is that McCain will pick a running mate in order to gather the most votes in the general election, somebody who is not a Maverick, does not have a long history of easily distortable-by-Dems soundbites and who will stick by the issue stances taken by McCain. With that in mind, I have a hard time betting on Huck for the VP spot, I would hope he would pick somebody else who is fairly popular with Executive experience, and who is not a former/present Senator (We have 3 Senators in the race now, thats about 3 too many). Probably Mitt, but it would not cause surprise or dismay if he picked some other former Governor.
5:03 pm
“But a conservative with a lot less baggage would be better than a Huckabee whose shameless pandering to the religious right would not sit well in states where McCain has a chance for a breakthrough.”
Is it pandering when you are championing your own beliefs and they happen to align with the beliefs of those on the “religious right”? Pandering (as I understand it) would be hiding your own beliefs and telling people what they want to hear. Pandering is what McCain does when speaking before real conservatives.
Pandering is what Huckabee would be doing if he shut up and towed the moderate republican line.
I don’t care for either candidat but Huck is not pandering in the example cited.
8:08 pm
Look, I’m already going to have to go into the voting booth wearing an SCBA (Self-Contained Breathing Apparatus) to vote for McCain. If he’s foolish enough to choose the Empty-Suited Huckster as a running mate, I’ll simply pass on the presidential vote and vote the rest of the ticket as I see fit.
Huck brought a lot into this election that didn’t need to be there. The only way he ever got his name in the press was to take cheap shots at everybody but McCain. His domestic policy is indecipherable and his foreign policy consists of inviting Iran’s mullahs to come and sing Kumbyeya around the campfire. Maybe that passes as qualified in Arkansas, but not in my neighborhood.
8:11 pm
Romney should just stick around until the convention. When the GOP sees what a mess they’re getting themselves into with McCain-Huckabee, they might just drop all their support on Romney instead… They should, anyways. Huckabee is crazy, he has nothing to do near the White House or any other political office the way he carries on. McCain-Huckabee would easily beat the Democrats, but it would be a disaster for the country as much as Clinton-Richardson or whatever it would be with Clinton at the top of the ticket.
I’ve pretty much decided that if Huckabee is on the GOP ticket, I’m voting for the Democrats. If the Democrats put Hillary at the top of their ticket, I’m voting for the GOP. If it comes down to Hillary vs McCain-Huckabee… I’ll just have to vote for whatever poor bastard shows up in the Independent slot like I did in 2004.
6:55 pm
I’ve pretty much decided that if Huckabee is on the GOP ticket, I’m voting for the Democrats.
I’m there as well. I can hold my nose and vote for McCain, but I don’t want Huckabee anywhere near power.
12:54 am
Huckabee will not be on the ticket. Every week he stays in the race from here forward, his chances drop from the 5 percent chance he had before Romney dropped out.
8:50 am
[...] McCAIN-HUCKABEE: A TICKET MADE IN HELL - The title speaks true. [...]
3:25 pm
[...] Could Huckabee really be his VP choice? In my opinion and many others, it appears there is still room for the ticket from hell to form. [...]
7:27 am
Huckabee was an excellent governor of a divided state, but I don’t think he is the right man for VP. Without campaign money he was forced to appeal to the religious right to get his name out there, and now Dems can easily attack him. It’s too bad too because he is a proven leader and a brilliant speaker.
2:40 am
McCain Still Not Clicking With Conservatives…
One thing is for sure if McCain was to name Mike Huckabee as his VP running mate I will be 100% against him even if it means enduring four years with a Democrat President.
So who shall we support? Bob Barr threw his hat in the ring as a Libertaria…..
7:32 pm
[...] about an ad featuring Mike Huckabee (assuming he’s not the choice)? Huckabee presented challenges to McCain (especially in the South). He also has some choice things to say about John McCain and [...]