Is the press on drugs? MSNBC’s Domenico Montanaro obviously is. Or maybe he’s just normally spaced out like some addle brained stoner:
What other explanation is there for this idiocy?
After Pennsylvania, a lot of folks—including us—figured that Obama would win North Carolina by as much, or even more, than Clinton won the Keystone State, thus erasing the gains she made there in delegates and the popular vote. But the race in Carolina is tightening from the double-digit lead he once held; a new Research 2000 poll has him up by seven points, 51%-44%. After several days of Jeremiah Wright dominating the news—plus some new polls showing an erosion of support—Obama’s back is against the wall, at least in terms of perception and momentum. Of course, almost every time a candidate’s back has been against the wall this campaign (think Clinton and McCain in NH, Obama and McCain in SC, and Clinton in OH and PA), that candidate has flourished. Will Obama continue the trend? His appearance on Meet the Press this Sunday might offer some clues.
Obama’s back is not against the wall. He could lose every primary contest between now and June 3rd and unless he were to get slaughtered in all 8 primaries remaining by an average of about 70%, there is no way in hell Hillary Clinton will have more pledged delegates going into the convention in August.
This has been a fact of the campaign for more than a month. More recently, Obama has been garnering uncommitted Superdelegates to the point that, according to RCP, he now trails Hillary – who once had a 180 superdelegate lead – by only 17. More importantly with only around 280 Superdelegates who are still uncommitted, by the time the primaries are over Obama will only need a handful of supers to clinch it.
And once he goes over the top it will be as if God himself had descended from heaven and annointed him. Any effort to unseat him will cause a backlash in the African American community so profound that it could radically alter the relationship between the party and blacks for a long while. It’s not that they would support Republicans. It’s the very real possibility that they will stay home in huge numbers on election day.
This idea of Black anger is more than just Democrats whistling past the graveyard.
If Obama isn’t the nominee, “there would be a significant number of African-Americans who would stay home. They’re not voting for (presumptive Republican nominee) John McCain,” predicted David Bositis, a senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which researches black voting trends.Todd Shaw, a University of South Carolina political science professor, agreed, citing a groundswell of African-American disenchantment with both Bill and Hillary Clinton. They’re particularly annoyed by Bill Clinton’s performance during the South Carolina primary and by Clinton supporter James Carville’s description of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Latino, as “Judas” for endorsing Obama over Hillary Clinton.
“The comment plays very badly with African-Americans and Latinos,” Shaw said. “They remind them of ‘Look what we’ve done for you; you should stay in line.’ That doesn’t sit well with voters of color. They view it as Northern machine politics or Old South boss politics.”
Hunter Bacot, an associate professor of political science at Elon University in North Carolina, saw another piece of political history haunting black Obama backers.
“There’s a sentiment among blacks that they’ve been taken for granted by the Democratic Party,” Bacot said. “If Obama loses, it’s as though their candidate’s victory was overturned.”
Democratic National Committee officials acknowledge that there could be some falloff of African-American voters if Obama isn’t the nominee. Still, Karen Finney, a DNC spokeswoman, said the party expects African-Americans — frustrated by the war in Iraq, the sagging economy and high gasoline prices — to go to the polls in their usual numbers when they compare whomever the Democratic nominee is with McCain.
The bottom line is simple but lost on the mainstream press which, for reasons much more to do with bottom line journalism than with reporting the facts, continues to treat the nomination process as a competitive enterprise rather than the flailing efforts of the Clinton campaign to overturn a result that for all practical and realistic purposes has been confirmed by the party.
It should be obvious to even the casual observer the Hillary Clinton’s only hope for the nomination – and it is an extremely faint hope at that – is to split the Democratic party wide open by, in effect, trying to reverse the decision made by voters and caucus goers in 50 states at the convention. She will fail because the Obama campaign will ensure discipline among its delegates and party leaders, who will be running the convention, will deny Clinton any opportunity to use the rules to achieve victory.
Where Clinton will succeed is in splitting the party. Whether Obama – an enormously skilled politician – can put it back together in the wake of Hillary’s Kamikaze attack will be the question facing Democrats when the Illinois Senator makes what promises to be the most dramatic convention speech since Ted Kennedy’s masterpiece at the 1980 Democratic convention as Obama accepts the nomination of his party.
5:17 pm
Clinton Takes Pennsylvania…
PHILADELPHIA, April 22—Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Pennsylvania presidential primary deci…
2:27 am
Clinton will argue that the Democrat delegate system is broken. For example, she’ll say, she wan Texas by 4 points but actually received fewer delegates. She’ll say under the “real” general election delegate system, she would have earned more delegates than Obama. Add that with a popular vote lead (counting FL) and she will have a strong case for the nomination.
A “strong case” at least from the Clinton’s perspective. No one else will agree.
ed.
6:58 am
A portion of the speech Obama should give:
“We know who Hillary is. We know who the Clintons are. Remember how they treated women who had the misfortune of passing Bill’s zipper? They are not for women. Remember how they sold out the poor in welfare reform when Bill’s poll numbers were tanking? They’re not for the poor. Remember how they issued don’t ask don’t tell in the military? They’re not for gay rights. And now, with their attacks on me, do you think they really care about Black advancement?
The truth is, the Clintons are only for the Clintons. They always were. They always will be. Period.”
7:26 am
I can’t wait until a future election when a black is up against an Hispanic and both sides threated to dissect America unless their own is coronated.
We have the liberals and the watchdog media (a redundancy)to thank for allowing America to be dissected (divide and conquer) for the power seekers of the left.
Is there anyone left who believes that politcians should consider America’s needs first -even if it ticks off every interest group?
10:05 am
“The bottom line is simple but lost on the mainstream press which… continues to treat the nomination process as a competitive enterprise rather than the flailing efforts of the Clinton campaign to overturn a result that for all practical and realistic purposes has been confirmed by the party.”
A not too surprising conservative swipe at the so-called MSM and Hillary Clinton. But it’s pretty thin.
What’s really happening? Senator Obama was a great unknown entering the race. It’s both his greatest strength and greatest weakness. An attractive candidate, it’s obviously easier to buy his soaring rhetoric he’s head and shoulders better than the rest of the pack when you don’t know anything about him.
Reverend Wright. Over-promising. Endless contradictions. His wife mouth off. Etc. Gee, he’s a typical politician too.
The problem for the Democrats is Obama built a huge delegate lead before his dirt started to surface. We know Clinton’s dirt. We know McCain’s dirt. The worry for Democrats is has Obama peaked? Is it all downhill from here?
The “wake of Hillary’s Kamikaze attack” quip completely misses what’s going on. Hillary’s campaign is only one part of the equation. Have you watched Fox News obsess over Reverend Wright? Right-wing talk radio? The rest of the so-called “liberal media” isn’t far behind.
That’s obviously where the super delegates come in. While it’s doubtful they’ll overturn the pledged delegate results, if Obama continues to self-destruct they may be forced to.
That’s why these final primaries are more than pointless bean counting, as you suggest. Hillary is showing far more strength in the end than Obama and in critical races that’ll be important to the Democrats come the real election. If – I admit it’s unlikely – Hillary were to take North Carolina plus the next couple of states she’s expected to win it makes a pretty strong case Obama’s done, put a fork in him.
“This idea of Black anger is more than just Democrats whistling past the graveyard.”
Will African-Americans forever bolt from the Democratic party if the unlikely scenario unfolds that super delegates coronate Hillary? Doubtful. The alternative is a less than friendly Republican Party. They may stay home in ‘08 but come ‘12 it’s a new ball game, especially if McCain ends up in the White House.
And sticking with Obama to the bitter end, should he become damaged political goods, in an attempt to appease Democrats who think this way is a losing proposition in any case. If he were to get blown out in the general election, there’d still be a backlash. The argument would be the Democrats didn’t support him enough. They’d, like you, blame Hillary and the Democratic establishment.
1:12 pm
If you count Florida, Obama only has a 206,000 popular vote lead. With both Michigan and Florida starting to gritch about not being included in the Denver Doings, how is Howling Howie going to tell them to stay home and shut up? The Democrats have used the “every vote should count” mantra and now they have to pay for that.
Hillary could overtake Obama in the popular vote if she does well in North Carolina (where Obama’s lead is sinking like a brick thrown into a pond) and take Indiana. It is not unthinkable that she will catch up, or exceed the popular vote next Tuesday.
Then that brings us to the African-American segment that will claim that somehow Hillary has stolen the vote. With Al Sharpton leading the pack of protestors who are demanding that the SuperDelegates all back Obama. Don’t think for one minute that Sharpton has not paid his “Recreate 68” membership fees.
So Obama probably will be nominated by the Super Delegates and we will learn first hand that vote (of normal citizens) don’t count with the Democratic party. Will Michigan, and Florida, then vote for Obama knowing they did not have a seat at the table?
You have to love the fact that the party of “identity” politics may be broken for years by that very practice.
2:51 pm
BTW, the democratic establishment is aware that Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea are due in court soon to testify in a fraud case that involves the entire family. If they were smart, they would quit worrying about what a pastor said and focus on what the Clintons have actually done. The plaintiff in the lawsuit claims to have real proof. If that turns out to be the case, this would be a disaster in the general election against McCain. If you do your homework, you will know that the party insiders have a lot of reasons to move in the direction of Barack. And they would be smart to do so.
BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I hate Hillary but you know what I hate even more? Idiots like you who makes believe they have some big dark secret that no one else knows which turns out to be total baloney. Like the Peter Paul fraud case – a guy who has changed his story so many times you need a scorecard to keep track.
I see that your comments get progressively idiotic. I won’t expose my readers to your stupidity.
ed.
5:01 pm
You don’t know the Clintons that well do you
Lets not forget Tony Rescko in Chicago. If he has the goods on Obama and Hillary knows he will be talking big time.
5:13 pm
“If you count Florida, Obama only has a 206,000 popular vote lead. With both Michigan and Florida starting to gritch about not being included in the Denver Doings, how is Howling Howie going to tell them to stay home and shut up? The Democrats have used the “every vote should count” mantra and now they have to pay for that.”
This is the Florida that everyone agreed beforehand didn’t count, and in which only Hilary campaigned. The one in which Obama wasn’t even on the ballot. You think that those votes should count, yes?
You think you might be able to get something right, yes? Obama was on the ballot in Florida. And lost. He was not on the ballot in Michigan.
ed.
1:51 am
It seems to be by no means certain that Obama will get the Democractic party nomination. By the time of the convention, if enough super delegates decide that Obama cannot win in the general election, the super delegates will award the nomination to Clinton. I do agree that it is more likely than not that Obama will get the nomination but it does not seem to be certain. I would havdicap this at about 55-45. This means that there is about a 55% chance that Obama will get the nomination and about a 45% chance that it will go to Clinton. Alot can still happen between now and August. I think it may be premature to count Clinton out at this point. Witht that said it will take more than the Wright controversy to derail the Obama campaign.
10:31 am
Rick,
Allow me to indulge my latest conspiracy theory and thereby disagree with you. Unless we thwart the Establishment, Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States.