If you’ve been saving old electoral college maps from the 2000 and 2004 election so you can follow the action in 2008, I would suggest you toss them on the rubbish heap of history. While both candidates will enjoy support from many of their base states – the GOP in the south and the Democrats along both coasts – the rest of the nation is literally up for grabs this time around. No less than 17 states by my count will be heavily contested by both candidates as they seek to raid each other’s territory in order to maximize their chances to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes on election day.
It’s hard to see where one candidate or the other has an advantage in this contest but it appears by my calculations that John McCain will have to defend more of his own territory which will necessarily limit his opportunities to raid in blue states. Couple that with a probable huge disparity in cash on hand to spend vis a vis Obama and McCain would, on paper, appear to be at a decided disadvantage.
Not so. McCain’s best chances for a breakthrough blue state win are in the big states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. If McCain can take any one of those two states (while holding on to Ohio) he can afford to lose a couple of the smaller red states Obama has his heart set on and still top 270 electoral votes.
Obama, on the other hand, only need take the state of Ohio to scramble McCain’s chances for the presidency. It is hard to come up with a winning electoral college scenario for the GOP without both Ohio and Florida in the mix. That’s because Obama has a very good chance of breaking through in one or more previously Republican states like Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. With Ohio, McCain can afford to lose one or two of those states by taking Pennsylvania or Michigan. Without Ohio, even those two states put together wouldn’t be enough. The Arizona senator would probably need a breakthrough in two blue states like Minnesota and Wisconsin in order to top 270.
OBAMA’S BEST TARGETS
Most experts agree that Virginia is ripe for the plucking by a Democrat in 2008 – especially an African American Democrat like Obama.
Looking at recent statewide races for governor, it is clear that the Washington, D.C. metro area – filled as it is with federal workers and many dependent on government for their livlihood – probably holds the key to a Democratic win. The area has witnessed explosive growth in the last decade with previously rural, Republican counties like Loudon and Prince William filling up with Democratic voters. Along with the Democratic vote from Richmond, this may be enough to offset Republican strength in the Piedmont region along the border with North Carolina as well as counties bordering Tennessee where the GOP routinely hits 70%.
The loss of Virginia’s 13 electoral votes would not be a catastrophe. But Obama will have his sights set on other targets as well. And his best chance at further breakthroughs appear to me to be out west where radically changing demographics have put in play three states – Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Nevada is probably ready to tip in 2008. Unheard of growth in Las Vegas (Clark County) – 600,000 new residents since 2000 or a 40% increase – will probably mean an end to long time GOP domination in Presidential elections. Consider that in 1980 Ronald Reagan won Nevada with 62% of the vote while George Bush eked out a 21,000 vote win in 2004.
The union vote in Las Vegas and Reno will probably be enough to give the state to Obama this time around. Couple Nevada’s 5 electoral votes with Virginia’s 13 and it forces McCain to win either Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes or Michigan’s 17 to reach 270.
But Obama has two other western states in his cross hairs. New Mexico and Colorado have both experienced rapid growth in the past decade largely made up of an influx of Hispanics. Colorado may be a little more of a long shot for Obama as growth in liberal areas as slacked off in recent years and McCain could get a larger percentage of Hispanic voters than Bush in 2004. But given Obama’s superior organization and his cash on hand, a maximum effort just might pay off in Colorado.
New Mexico would seem to be a more realistic target. George Bush won by barely 6,000 votes in 2004 and with Democratic governor Bill Richardson on board, Obama could very well flip the state blue.
If Obama were to take all four states – CO, NM, VA, and NV - he would take 32 electoral votes away from George Bush’s total of 286 in 2004. You can do the math as well as I can if you take all or a combination of 2 or three of those states away from McCain. Where does he make it up?
McCAIN’S BEST TARGETS
I pointed out earlier that McCain’s best shots appear to be in Pennsylvania and Michigan – for different reasons.
Pennsylvania is ripe for an upset. It’s hard to imagine a Democrat who is less attractive to the voters in that state than Barack Obama – at least according to the primary exit polls where he was slaughtered by Hillary Clinton. Even in a Democratic year, the state sets up nicely for McCain running against Obama. The most recent Rasmussen survey from May 21 shows only a two point lead for Obama, well within the margin for error. Among key groups like older voters and white working class voters, McCain leads comfortably. Among independents, McCain also enjoys an advantage.
This state more than most will be a turnout election: Reagan Democrats versus African Americans. The fault lines will be obvious and dramatic – appeals to race will no doubt play a part in determining Pennsylvania’s fate.
Michigan is an entirely different target of opportunity for McCain. Ordinarily a reliable Democratic state, Michigan Democrats have botched it but good in the last 4 years and as mad as people might be at the GOP in Michigan they are just as angry at the Democrats. McCain has a real chance here, running slightly ahead of Obama at this point. Will McCain have the money to compete with Obama? Will he have the organization? It will be interesting to watch as McCain commits his limited resources to either protecting states like Virginia or gambling for the much bigger prizes in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Other less likely marks for the McCain campaign would be Midwestern states like Minnesota and Wisconsin. Iowa, as always, will be in play and if McCain were to lose there, taking one of the other two Midwestern states would almost become a necessity. Bush lost Wisconsin in 2004 by only 11,000 votes and McCain is up 47-43 in the state according to the last Rasumussen poll. McCain has much broader appeal than Bush in a state chock full of Reagan Democrats and independents. Making prospects for a maximum effort even more likely on McCain’s part is that it is a relatively cheap ad buy – a bigger bang for his ad bucks.
But Wisconsin is a state of ornery voters who love the reformer who challenges orthodoxy. McCain should look long and hard before committing to winning this state.
There are other states that may be in play this fall. The New York Times has a good list of them here. They add Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, and Montana to Obama’s list of targets.
Georgia and Montana are pipe dreams for the Democrat. His thinking in Georgia is that he can win a three way race with Libertarian Bob Barr and McCain splitting the conservative vote while he sweeps the African American vote and ends up with a plurality. He should glance at the polls more often. Barr is a blip in Georgia and he would have to take more than 15% of the vote for Obama to have a chance. That scenario simply isn’t very likely.
Montana is a different story but still a very long shot for Obama. Here, Barr may do very well indeed – he might even hit the 10% threshold. But Democrats are scarce in Montana and McCain should still win easily.
Missouri and North Carolina offer a slightly better battleground for Obama. But unless he can show better with white, working class voters, Missouri is out of reach and North Carolina is a stretch. Look for less of an effort in those two states the closer we get to the election.
In the end, as it has the last two elections and as it has been true many times in the past, the entire kit and caboodle will probably come down to Ohio. Here is where McCain must make a stand and where Obama has the best chance to derail his opponent’s prospects.
All of this is assuming the economy will not get much worse than it is now. If it really goes south, all bets are off and Obama’s landslide scenario comes into play. Perhaps not so much in the popular vote. But winning 400 electoral votes is a mandate any way you look at it and the potential is there if unemployment and inflation begin to bite.
9:51 am
it will make no difference whether the economy keeps tanking or we have a stock market like we had under Bill Clinton.
The only people in the country who would choose McCain over Obama are reading this blog.
Americans are rejecting Republicanism
So THAT’s why McCain is even in the polls. Sheesh! Ya scared me. For a moment there I thought you might have something intelligent to add.
ed.
10:07 am
People are not going to like me for saying this about Michigan… but I believe it is the truth so I shall say it anyway.
I grew up in a southern suburb of Detroit, 1962-1980.
You cannot overestimate the antagonism generated between whites and blacks due to Coleman Young’s ascension to mayor of Detroit. White flight to the suburbs accelerated, and the resulting tensions caused each side of this racial divide to harden their positions phenomenally and they still blame each other for the Detroit area’s endemic problems.
I’ve lived in Texas (in Brownsville, Austin, and Dallas) since 1985 and I have never heard anything at all like the vicious racism I grew up with in Michigan, and I still hear whenever I return home.
Therefore I think that racism will be the defining issue in Michigan. Perhaps in other states it will play out similarly? I don’t know. But I can guarantee you that in Detroit itself, Black support for Obama will not be the simple “we are breaking the barriers down” support that it might be elsewhere. It will have a much nastier edge. And on the white side of the division, it will be hidden racism but very pervasive: “I will never vote for a black man. Never. Period.”
And it all goes back to the explosive racial divide that opened up during the ascension of Coleman Young. I won’t blame either side, but I do heartily affirm that the vicious divide still exists. Until you see and hear it for yourself, on the streets and in the bars, you really won’t believe how very bad it is there in Michigan.
10:07 am
I think MN and WI are very possible for McCain to win. Kerry barely won both, and McCain has a legitimate claim to being a maverick and a reformer that Obama does not. Obama will run worse than Kerry in many demographic groups so the question is whether he’ll run better than Kerry with young voters, academics and blacks to make up for it, and I think the answer is no.
10:43 am
Dear roland,
Thanks for sophisticated comments. You really put the “anal” in “analysis.”
Now shuck out of your jammies, move out of your parents’ basement, and get a real life.
10:56 am
NEW JERSEY will be the Sleeper State
McCain is a ” Tom Kean” type moderate Repub.New Jerseyans are fed up with Dems. In 2004 Kerry won 1.9 Million to Bush with 1.6 Million. McCain can close this gap
11:46 am
Your projections assume that the election will between two candidates. Bob Barr (Libertarian Party) and Ralph Nader (Green Party) are also running and while they have little hope of winning, they will most likely have an impact in determining the final winner.
A Rasmussen poll in May of this year showed that a four way race would go as follows: Obama earns 42% of the vote, McCain 38%, Bob Barr 6%, Ralph Nader 4% and 11% were undecided.
They say that generals prepare to fight the last war instead of the war at hand. McCain is an old war horse and he enjoys much of his support from his criticism against Bush’s debacle in Iraq. But, like Bush, he still argues that the war in Iraq was a just war worth the sacrifices of the American people.
Bob Barr has better conservative credentials than McCain and he will act as the spoiler in helping McCain and the GOP take the whipping they deserve.
12:06 pm
For two guys who don’t see eye to eye on a lot of stuff, I agree with you 100 percent. Brilliant post, especially the landslide scenario, which if it plays out will absolutely kill McCain.
Which eye? Left or right?
ed.
1:47 pm
I also think Obama will wipe the floor with McCain at the townhall sessions. I have seen McCain and he is remarkably lifelike.
Unfortunately he can neither remember the facts of the case, (troop levels and the difference between Shias and Sunnis)or that camera equipment records what he says which then can be played back again.
Hopefully President Obama will be able to prove to the institutionally racist that they are purely and simply wrong. I grew up in a suburb of Atlanta and although Mayor Maynard Jackson was attacked because he was Black, he turned out to be a great mayor who served many terms and built MARTA and helped win the Olympics and so forth. I saw the resistance when it looked like he would win and I saw them all melt when he was magnanimous and smart.
I think the same scenario wil play out here.
5:20 pm
Roland,
Did you work in Atlanta in ‘04 for a firm called WellFound ? I was in Atlanta 4 years back and one of my co-workers at that time had the same name as yours and was planning to vote for Kerry back then. I was also in the Kerry camp back then, but boy oh boy how things can change.
I would disagree with you on institutionalized racism regarding Obama. Sure, there might be a few people who will never vote for an African American candidate but the over whelming majority of people who are against him dont like his left-liberalism on economic and foreign policy issues, his demagoguery on the Iraq war, or the fact that his resume is razor thin.His election was kickstarted by winning in one of the whitest states in the Union – no one was talking about racism, back then.
The economy is not in a recession but it is going to be a huge headache for McCain no matter what – hopefully it is not a bigger one when November comes. It is really uphill for McCain now – lets see how he performs. These townhall debates are actually better off for him. His townhall meetings in NH were what propelled him to the GOP nomination.
But this race is for Obama to lose – no doubt about it.
10:13 pm
Roland,
You’re convinced McCain can’t hold his own in a townhall free-form debate with Obama? McCain has certainly had some flubs and misstatements. However, it seems that whenever Obama speaks extemporaneously he has to deliver a prepared speech the next day to ‘clarify’, back-track, reverse all the non-sense he spewed the day before. The more Obama talks without a teleprompter and about issues of substance the more easily it is to see that he isn’t a great thinker and problem solver and his after the fact clarifications show he is indeed not a messiah come to resurrect our dead political system but just another politician.
12:21 am
Virginia is as likely to vote for Snobama as New Jersey is going to cross over for McCain.
This election will be a rehash of 1972. An unpopular Republican wins a landslide over a delusional Marxist.
1:59 am
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9:22 am
I am not revealing my expert knowledge or inside information on who will win, for I can guarantee everyone who will be the next president. Although I have no clue, I dislike the finger pointing, and I do not understand this long used tactic of senseless horseshit of crap slinging, so the winner is: John Mcain or Barrack Obama, who will stop the finger pointing first, no revelation here.