GOP heavyweight politico Alex Castellanos weighs in at, of all places, Huffington Post today with a searing post about why Obama can’t win.
First, Castellano wrestles with the question of the moment; why isn’t Obama farther ahead?
To earn the Democratic nomination, as Fred Thompson points out, Obama ran as George McGovern without the experience, a left-of-center politician who would meet unconditionally with Iran, pull us precipitously out of Iraq, prohibit new drilling for oil, and grow big government in Washington by all but a trillion dollars. In his general election TV ad debut, however, Obama pirouetted like Baryshnikov. With a commercial Mike Huckabee could have run in a Republican primary, Obama now emphasizes his commitment to strong families and heartland values, “Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses.” In this yet unwritten chapter of his next autobiography, Obama tells us he is the candidate of “welfare to work” who supports our troops and “cut taxes for working families.” The shift in his political personae has been startling. Obama has moved right so far and so fast, he could end up McCain’s Vice-Presidential pick.General-election Obama now billboards his doubts about affirmative action. He has embraced the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption saying, “I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon…everything.” He tells his party “Democrats are not for a bigger government.” Oil drilling is a consideration. His FISA vote and abandonment of public campaign finance introduce us to an Obama of recent invention. And as he abandons his old identity for the new, breeding disenchantment among his formerly passionate left-of-center supporters and, equally, doubts among the center he courts, he risks becoming nothing at all, a candidate who is everything and nothing in the same moment.
In past campaigns, there have been extremely artful pivots to the center among candidates of both parties. Obama’s turn to the right was an unmitigated disaster. Placing himself above other politicians meant that Obama – to maintain his “authenticity” – needed to stick to his leftist principles and positions in order not to ruin his brand.
Alas, Obama could never come close to winning running on the same platform he ran on in the primaries. McGovern tried it and got slaughtered. Hence, the wild lurch to the center that confused even his most rabid acolytes, angered the left, and put off the great center of American politics who recent polls have shown moving toward McCain.
And what of McCain? The contrast is startling:
In the defining moment of his life, McCain was willing to give everything for one thing, and that one thing was his country. Contrast that with Obama, who has told America that he is “a proud citizen of the United States and a fellow citizen of the world.” Obama is the talented salesman who seduced one state after another saying “Iowa, this is our moment,” “Virginia, this is our moment,” “Texas, this is our moment,” and then tells Europe, “people of Berlin, people of the world, this is our moment.” How many times can Barack Obama sell the same moment to everyone, before he becomes Mel Brooks in “The Producers”? Who is Barack Obama? His campaign, as it reupholsters him before our eyes, says we can never know—perhaps because Barack Obama does not know himself.
Perhaps many of us have underestimated the sheer power of McCain’s life story, it’s hold on the nation and effect on the voters. Certainly, as Castellano points out, the contrast with Obama is striking in that regard. McCain’s trial by fire says something very profound, very deep about the man that is resonating with voters as they compare the two candidates. With a spectacular lack of success, the left (not the Obama campaign) has tried to paint McCain as a panderer, a flip flopper, and a man without character or conscience.
On the other hand, McCain’s attacks against Obama are biting, caustic, sarcastic, and ringing true which is why he is staying close to Obama and why, in the end, all the re-invention Obama can muster isn’t going to matter:
John McCain is a complete and well-formed man. Barack Obama is completing himself. As he moves to fit what he perceives to be a right-of-center country, he distances himself from the simple and authentic passion of a young candidate who once pledged “Change We Can Believe In.”
The major differernce between them is in the core of the two candidates; one, rock solid while the other is molten – still forming under pressure and not yet completed.
McCain could still lose badly. People are not paying much attention to the race at this point and it very well may be that when the final determination is made by the voter, they will put aside any concerns about Obama and elect him president. The GOP brand has been damaged so badly and generated so much disgust and anger that in the end, it may be too much for McCain – despite his heroic life story and the heroic effort he is making in the campaign – to overcome.
But Obama will have hurdles to overcome as well. And whether he can define himself sufficiently in the voter’s minds will go a long way toward determining his fate.
This post originally appears in The American Thinker
11:03 am
Bravo! Nicely said, Rick. I’ve been waiting for months for the right to rally behind this decent man.
McCain is not my first, second, third, or even 10th choice, but on his worst day will be a better president than Obama. It WILL be a dog fight, and McCain is my dog.
11:26 am
McCain=Bush.
Enough said. Are you better off than you were 7+ years ago? Gas prices got you down? Is your house payment current? How about your job opportunities? Are your kids going to be able to go to college? How’s that illegal invasion and occupation going in Iraq? How about Afghanistan? Were they good decisions?
McCain=Bush
11:46 am
[...] and, as I noted recently, I think he must abandon principles valuable to him to win the prize. Rick Moran, commenting on the Castellanos post, notes: Alas, Obama could never come close to winning running [...]
11:50 am
ahh, yes signs of life in the mccain campaign,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_5
me thinks john’s chances will be based on voter turnout, and voter turnout alone. truth be told, conservatives consistently vote, always have, but as you mentioned above, there has been much disenchantment. this disenchantment is not undeserved, delay, bush, cheney, and rumsfeld along with a few other miscreants have left a very bad taste in the mouths of most americans.
mccain though has been a very big sore in the hides of the first four, trying to bring some accountability to their throne, and rightly so as he has the ability to think for himself. what he needs to do for the middle and independent vote, is to highlight those differences and battles he has had with the current administration, if he can do that, he can technically get these essential votes.
rick, keep up the good fight, very good stuff here lately (not that it hasn’t always been good). cheers,
12:24 pm
The more interesting, and puzzling, question is why isn’t Obama 10 points behind? Given his obvious leftward lean, even now with all his compromises and shifts, it’s a scary reflection of a large percentage of the electorate that the two are basically neck and neck.
Granted McCain is a weak candidate, but clearly his instincts are often in the right direction, even though he’s inconsistent and fairly inarticulate.
1:33 pm
Rick,
Been lurking a while, but this is my first post. You have even inspired me to start my own blog.
I am not a McCain fan by any stretch, but, as Michael B. said, he is my dog in this dog fight. You stated:
“The major differerence between them is in the core of the two candidates; one, rock solid while the other is molten – still forming under pressure and not yet completed.”
Isn’t this the difference in all liberals and true conservatives? Conservatives-at-heart, which John McCain is, are guided by principals that never waver; they are rock solid at the core. Our current President has taken a great deal of heat for that over the past several years, but he still doesn’t waver. Liberals, on the other hand, only waver. There is no black and white, right and wrong, go or no-go; it all depends on the situation, the audience, or the latest poll data. Because John McCain, although far from perfect is, at heart, a man of principal, and Barack Obama, quite simply, is not!
1:39 pm
So
1:40 pm
Jimbo,
I’ll bite…
Are you better off than you were 7+ years ago?
Yes, thanks to a much lower tax burden
Gas prices got you down?
No; I mean I wish it was free, but…
Is your house payment current?
Yes, because I am smart enough to take out a loan I can afford.
How about your job opportunities?
I am not looking for another job, but it doesn’t seem like I would have trouble finding one if I was.
Are your kids going to be able to go to college?
Yes, in fact, I have saved enough money for tuition already, and I am working on saving for other expenses.
How’s that illegal invasion and occupation going in Iraq?
It wasn’t illegal and its not an occupation, but the situation is improving. Mistakes have been made, but a dictator is no longer in power and free elections have been held.
How about Afghanistan? Were they good decisions?
Has the country been hit with another terrorist attack? Therein, you will find your answer…
1:40 pm
So Obama is a T3-type Terminator. Well that explains a lot, after all, that’s not the friendly model.
3:19 pm
GOP heavyweights are supposed to tell us why the Democratic cnadidate cannot win. Does anyone take them seriously? Probably very few people actually take anything a Republican leader says seriously anymore. The piece by a so called Republican heavy weight probably should be taken with a grain of salt.
With that said, with all of the fawning press coverage Mr. Obama has recieved and with the general disgust that most Americans seem to feel toward Republicans I would expect Mr. Obama to be way ahead now but the polls seem to indicate a close race. It does seem strange.
What I think may be going on is the pollsters are shading the results of the polls to make it appear that Mr. McCain is closer than he actually is. In other words, Mr. Obama probably has a big lead. If they can make the race appear closer than it actually is, this will probably generate higher ratings for the political pundits and the news analysis shows than if it appears one candidate has a lopsided lead.
3:31 pm
“Bravo! Nicely said, Rick. I’ve been waiting for months for the right to rally behind this decent man.”
You mean the guy who cheated on his first wife with his now second wife, after the first one remained loyal while he was a POW?
Or do you mean the guy who called his second wife a c*nt and just offered her yesterday up as a contestant in a topless pageant?
You mean that decent man?
“Isn’t this the difference in all liberals and true conservatives? Conservatives-at-heart, which John McCain is, are guided by principals that never waver; they are rock solid at the core.”
It’s just amazing what wingnuts call principled. Obama remains faithful to his wife, McCain acts like a jerk to both of his, and it is McCain who is the principled one.
Sad.
3:50 pm
Wow NationRight. Seems like everything is fine then. Well done.
5:01 pm
Why Obama cannot win the election…
From a stunning post at HuffPo:Dreams from My Father is a staggeringly beautiful book, lyrical, powerful and poetic. It is also the story of a man who has been many men, all named Barack Obama. In his own eyes, he is one race, but also another. He is a…
5:17 pm
D.F.,
No, Obama is not a T3-type Terminator. But he is a Type-1 flip-flopping, socialist, lie-through-his-teeth asshole. And those are his good points.
Honestly, never in my life have I seen a politician that so brazenly lies: his flip on the 16 month troop withdrawal, public financing, gun control, off-shore drilling… there are dozens of others.
Not a terminator, just an asshole.
5:27 pm
dude08,
There is just as much evidence that McCain called his wife a cunt as there is that Obama is a muslim… namely, none. As far as cheating on his first wife, I don’t know the details, but I do know that even decent men and women fall out of love and end marriages. But do you really want to hold all the candidates to that standard? Or is it simply the best argument you can make? Did you hold your last democratic president to that standard? What about his spiritual advisor (Jesse Jackson)? I’m guessing your a big fan of that pole-smoker Barney Frank, and the biggest philanderer on the planet, Ted Kennedy. They’re probably all “decent” in your eyes, as is your lie-through-his-teeth messiah. GFYS.
7:23 pm
“There is just as much evidence that McCain called his wife a cunt as there is that Obama is a muslim… namely, none. As far as cheating on his first wife, I don’t know the details, but I do know that even decent men and women fall out of love and end marriages. But do you really want to hold all the candidates to that standard? Or is it simply the best argument you can make? Did you hold your last democratic president to that standard? What about his spiritual advisor (Jesse Jackson)? I’m guessing your a big fan of that pole-smoker Barney Frank, and the biggest philanderer on the planet, Ted Kennedy. They’re probably all “decent” in your eyes, as is your lie-through-his-teeth messiah. GFYS.”
You don’t know the details, obviously. Moreover, betcha you didn’t know that his loyal wife was also disabled at the time.
More to the point, it is the wingnuts who run on the platform of being holier than thou, not liberals. And then when they get called on their hypocrisy, they make excuses for THEIR candidate and whine like little girls.
And just yesterday, he offered his wife up as a contestant in a raunchy, topless and bottomless “pageant” in front of bunch of bikers. This from the the “values” party candidate. If Obama had done anything remotely like that, the wingnutopshere would have gone apesh*t. But when their boy does it, it’s no big deal at all.
I guess he’s just being “principled.”
8:38 pm
Watch the video of McCain pimping out his wife at a biker rally. Twisted.
And to Moran, this is from a rock solid guy, a man of character. Sick, sick, sick.
9:13 pm
See, here is where you liberals are “smarter” than us conservatives…
No one is perfect; we all make mistakes… I think we can agree on that, right? Well, when you are not guided by any type of principles, only the latest polling data or the ethics of the particular situation, you never have to be wrong. If I never say that, for instance, abortion is wrong, then I can always say, if it is politically expedient, that a particular type of abortion was OK. If I never say that raising taxes is bad for the economy, then I can raise taxes, if it gets me votes, and still be OK. Thus, liberals can never be questioned, because they don’t create a standard to be compared to. On the other hand, conservatives are not afraid to state their beliefs, their principles, and, then, as a consequence their shortcomings are easily visible. In other words, if you never agree that 2+2=4, then you can never get that problem wrong on the test…
9:41 pm
Of course I don’t know the details… I said as much in the post that you copied in your lead-in. Do I need to draw you a picture?
So his wife was disabled… why is that a big deal? Do you think that disabled people can’t fall out of love? Do you think that people married to disabled people can’t fall out of love?
As far as offering up his wife as a contestant… did you actually see this segment, or were you watching MSNBC? It was at a festival that sponsored a beauty pageant, and it was a “joke”... he was being “funny”.
It was actually clever. Nobody but you and Olby thought it anything but a joke.
Have some more kool-aid, and have a nice night.
10:55 pm
I think McCain will win. The reason I think so is because for months Rick Moran has been saying he doesn’t have a chance. Yes, that’s the same Rick Moran who said the ‘Surge’ could never work.
1:47 am
Why I would never support McCain.I support the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq (Iraq unfinished business,Afghanistan attacked us) I don’t support the Mexican invasion of the United States.I support The First Amendment the right of every American to sound off on candidates,I don’t support McCain-Feingold limitations to political free speech.I support The Second Amendment,I don’t support jailing owners that sell their firearms to fellow citizens(S.1805).I support Conservatives,I don’t support polititions claiming to be Conservative that are funded by Soros & Teresa Kerry.I support free trade,I don’t support trade with countries that aren’t free(S AMDT 890 to S 955).I support free and open debate,I don’t support cabals of any number.I support a single language as our common tongue,I don’t support balkanizing our country by requiring government communicate in whatever language someone speaks,hire your own translator!(S1348).
Research his voting record yourselves but endless is the list of reasons I’ll never vote for him,few are the excuses I could make to myself I can stomach to vote for him.
7:52 am
Dude –
Liberals hold themselves up as being holier than thou on all sorts of issues – caring for the poor, race relations, caring about the environment, and caring about education are but a few.
And, just like conservatives on their morality issues, the liberals are normally full of crap on theirs too.
10:48 am
dude08, ummmm, let me see; you are bashing John McCain because after he came back from 5 1/2 years in a North Vietnamese prison camp he was not the same man that his wife had married and they drifed apart? No problem, I am sure that after being beaten consistantly for that length of time, you would have been the same nice guy you were before, right?
And the ex-Mrs. McCain was in an auto accident that left her in a wheel chair BEFORE McCain was released. What was John Kerry’s excuse? He was never inprisoned, never beater, never had his life threatened, but after a “oh-so-public” relationship with his law partner, his wife had a nervous breakdown and he promptly dumped her. But I am sure you felt that John Frikken Traitor Kerry was beyond reproach. And God bless him, after tramping around Hollywood with lovely starlets, and sleeping on his buddie’s couches, he finally managed to find a wife with even more money that his first one had.
As to the “raucy, topless” beauty contest you are aluding to, it is called the “Buffalo Chip Beauty Contest” held in Sturgis. But knowing that your news source has to be limited to DailyKos or Huffington Post, please, feel free to be uninformed all you want.
If this is all you have to offer, McCain’s previous marriage, in the slander field, then perhaps you should also petition to have John Kerry removed from office as he is clearly not qualified to hold his seat any longer. But it seems to me that you have no problem with Senator’s who are guilty of murder, nay, you keep electing them elevating them to status of “senior stateman”.
Thanks for confirming that we cannot hold Dems to moral standards as we do Republicans. It is hard to hold a party to standards they don’t possess.
8:17 pm
I’ll say it again, there are alot of dems who will not vote for a black man once they get into that booth.
They call us racists which I am sick to death of since we were the REAL SUPPORTERS OF CIVIL RIGHTS ACT.
8:19 pm
I think I’ve got my equilibrium back enough to type. Rick your spin is so intense it threw me out of my chair and onto the floor.
McCain. True blue war hero. Obama everything there is to loath in a human being.
I admire McCain’s military career but to believe his life story of courage is what’s behind his surge is a complete joke. McCain’s not pushing that in his campaign ads. He’s running one attack ad after another.
There’s a lot of stuff in motion here. Far too much to cover in a comment but there are 2 really big events that have turned McCain’s way.
One is violence is dramatically down in Iraq. While it’s more complex than simply the surge working there’s no questioning the surge is a large part of it. Obama was skeptical of the surge so his wondrous anti-war vision that set him apart in the primaries works against him now. Especially, since Obama appears clueless as to how to work the issue more to his favor. Instead he hems and haws.
The other one is drilling. $4 gas ended the debate on drilling in voters’ minds. Conservatives are jumping on this issue as the one that’ll push Obama to the curb. Obama is slow to articulate a strong compromise position on the issue and the door has about shut in his face on the topic.
Not an event but an issue is media bias. Despite all the conservative whining about the media being in love with Obama, a recent study showed since the primaries ended McCain has gotten less negative press than Obama. Of course, it’s no surprise Fox News was the most negative of all ripping Obama 79% of the time.
1:05 am
I’m so bored with this he said, she said. I mean wtf, Dems/Reps are both hypocrites. Men are dogs, why constantly write about it.
I know this election will never be about issues so let’s all enjoy the Paris Hilton show (I actually thought her ad was pretty funny).
1:14 pm
“On the other hand, McCain’s attacks against Obama are biting, caustic, sarcastic, and ringing true which is why he is staying close to Obama and why, in the end, all the re-invention Obama can muster isn’t going to matter:”
Rick, while I enjoy reading your take on things, I’m gonna call BS on this one- his attacks are merely ad hominem fact-skimming whisper pieces. It’s your blog/your opinion, just don’t miscast it as fact. people tend to gravitate towards these things and misconstrue statements. To wit:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obamas_celebrity_cred.html
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/snubbing_wounded_troops.html
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/a_full_tank_of_nonsense.html
and to be fair-
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obamas_overstatement.html
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/straining_a_point.html
Heh – good points – except I said “ring true.” which I suppose is different than actually being true. But I didn’t mean it that way. He may not of “snubbed” wounded troops but the fact is he could have gone if he had taken his senate staff with him – unless there was another explanation from the Pentagon. Even Fact Check says the particulars are true – the insinuation that he passed up visiting the troops to go to the gym is false. In that sense – since he could have gone – the ad is correct.
But this is all baloney anyway. More people watch reruns of MASH than are paying attention to ads at this point.
ed.
11:16 am
Would anyone care to vote for Barry Soetoro, Muslim, for President? Who is he? I speak of a man that is a disciple of Saul Alinsky, author of Rules for Radicals, who used the term “change” as a code word for creating a socialist revolution. I speak of a man that has political ties to Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, leaders in the Weather Underground Organization, a violent radical left movement. The Weathermen founding document called for the establishment of a “white fighting force” to be allied with the “Black Liberation Movement” and other “anti-colonial” movements to achieve “the destruction of US imperialism and the achievement of a classless world: world communism.”
I speak of a man that wants to be our next president.
None other than Barrack Obama.
Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn were very instrumental in getting Obama’s state senate race off to a good start, when they had Barrack introduced to a group of very influential liberals of their district, in their home. But of course, the Obama campaign will deny the relationship. The campaign will deny most anything that will tarnish the image they have worked so hard to establish.
Followers of Barrack should know who they are voting for; the Muslim, the racist, the drug addict, the socialist, the elitist… , but wait a minute, when it comes to Obama, no one can know who they are really voting for.
Wake up America!
6:44 pm
Eeeee..this is an ugly, icky race. The posts here vary from frothing dem-fury to dry rep-cynicism and I can’t help but wonder what bleach-throwing, bus-tipping ruckus is going to occur when all the votes are in. We’ll have to board the windows, so I’m going out for plywood and munitions around 1st of November.