We are dealing with absolutely criminal and crazy acts of irresponsible and reckless decision makers, which is on the ground producing dramatic and tragic consequences.” – Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
Well, that’s one way to describe Vladmir Putin’s naked power grab against Georgia. “Criminal and crazy” certainly fits the Russian prime minister to a “T.” But methinks there may be a method to Putin’s madness.
Putin covets South Ossetia as a way to block western influence in the Caucasus. He also needs the breakaway province as a staging area for his war of nerves with Georgia and its democracy championing president Mikhail Saakashvili. Putin sees Saakashvili as a threat to his iron hold on the caucuses and resents the Georgian president’s attempts to join NATO.
The fog of war is particularly thick since communications are bad to begin with and made worse by the Russians apparently targeting communications hubs. Just how bad things are is anyone’s guess:
Shota Utiashvili, an official at the Georgian Interior Ministry, called the attack on Gori a “major escalation,” and said he expected attacks to increase over the course of Saturday. He said some 16 Russian planes were in the air over Georgian territory at any given time on Saturday, four times the number of sorties seen Friday.In the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, wounded fighters and civilians began to arrive in hospitals, most with shrapnel or mortar wounds. Several dozen names had been posted outside the hospital.
In a news conference, the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Georgian attacks on Russian citizens “amounted to ethnic cleansing.”
Mr. Lavrov said Russian airstrikes targeted military staging grounds. Asked whether Russia is prepared to fight “all-out war” in Georgia, he said: “No. Georgia, I believe, started a war in Southern Ossetia, and we are responsible to keep the peace.”
Actually, there has been a low level conflict in South Ossetia since the province broke away with Russian help in the early 90’s. At that time, Russian “peacekeepers” moved in to, in effect, maintain the status quo. Then, in 2004, Saakashvili was elected on a pro-democracy, nationalistic platform promising to reunite with both South Ossetia and another break away province Abkhazia.
Putin, who appears unstable at times, was reported to have had a carpet chewing episode a la Hitler when he heard of Saakashvili’s election – especially since his hand picked candidate got creamed. He vowed not to give up South Ossetia and has tried to kick Georgia out of the province ever since.
This latest round of trouble occurred when several Georgian policemen were killed by a roadside bomb. Georgia responded by lobbing some mortar rounds into a South Ossetian separatist military enclave and Putin (who is in Beijing himself) seeing the world’s attention on China at the moment, decided to launch what is either going to be a punitive raid or perhaps the big enchilada – full scale military invasion of Georgia. At the moment, anything could happen.
One bit of comic relief has been supplied by the man elected President of Russia who is supposed to be in charge of the army and foreign affairs but who apparently was either kept out of the loop or isn’t calling the shots. If anyone needed any proof who is really running the show in Russia, this military action should dispel all doubts:
The conflict in Georgia also appeared to suggest the limits of the power of President Dmitri A. Medvedev, Mr. Putin’s hand-picked successor. During the day, it was Mr. Putin’s stern statements from China, where he was visiting the opening of the Olympic Games, that appeared to define Russia’s position.But Mr. Medvedev made a public statement as well, making it unclear who was directing Russia’s military operations. Officially, that authority rests with Mr. Medvedev, and foreign policy is outside Mr. Putin’s portfolio.
“The war in Ossetia instantly showed the idiocy of our state management,” said a commentator on the liberal radio station, Ekho Moskvy. “Who is in charge – Putin or Medvedev?”
Putin should stop the charade and just name himself emperor. Or Czar.
Of concern to the west is not only the independence of a democratic Georgia, but also a good chunk of western Europe’s oil supply. The Caspian ports from where that oil is shipped are in danger of being bombed at any time and any interruption in supply will cause the price of oil to reverse its current downward trend and rocket back up into the stratosphere.
On top of all this is the need for Putin to maintain contact with his friends in Tehran. The Caucasus are the back door to the Persian Gulf and have historically been a vital crossroads in playing “The Great Game” of big powers seeking to control the region where smuggling routes over the years for everything from drugs to blue jeans have meant fabulous profits for those on top. A continuing NATO presence in Georgia threatens Putin’s lines of communication with Iran which is just one more reason for Putin’s bluster in the region.
Chances are this conflict will die down quickly. Georgia can’t afford to go to war with Russia and Putin would rather burrow from within when it comes to taking down Saakashvili. But the real chances for peace lie with the South Ossetia separatists. And they have their own agenda they are following at the moment.
12:51 pm
caucasus (3rd paragraph)
Thanks.
ed.
1:38 pm
Georgian army moves to retake S. Ossetia…
Georgian troops launched a major military offensive Friday to regain control over the breakaway prov…
8:17 pm
Dominate numbers of Russian nationals give cause for Russia to claim “independence” for region from Georgia,sounds like a foreshadow for Southern California.
1:42 am
Reminds me a bit of how the Second Lebanon War started.
4:52 am
Back from fishin’ links…
This is your final warning. IowaHawk Which is worse? An Insty poll.Do you want a "hospitalist" when you get sick? I want my own Doc. Or my Veterinarian.McCain’s last frontier. AlaskaNYC vs. LondonMore fun with pomo prose: David ThompsonInvas…
6:04 am
Rick, thanks for this post, you really clear alot of things up for this dumb blonde broad.
Hope the Prez and Putin had a serious talk about this, hope we don’t get dragged in, doubt it but its scary.
3:48 pm
[...] MORE: Little Green Footballs; Power Line; Right Wing Nuthouse [...]
4:16 pm
This conflict has it’s root in Stalin’s rule and how he set up boundaries. The conflict was not solved in the nineties and simmered on. Georgia was given the understanding that they can only join NATO if these two conflicts (also with Abchasia) are solved. The West (and especially Bush) made the big mistake on not being clear about their objectives in the region. So the Georgian president gambled and lost. And to some of the hawkish posters on this site I have to say this: just imagine how good it feels for the wounded superpower to show the world who is boss in that region. BTW, there is nothing that anyone can do about it.
4:30 pm
Obama Just Can’t Get Right…
Obama is plain old ignorant.
If you have ever watched the movie “Life” starring Eddie Murphy and Martin Lawrence you may remember the character “can’t get right.” He was slow in the head but could knock a baseball clean…
5:15 pm
Meanwhile Obama (The “ONE”) has provided the following statement (from his website):
“I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict. Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected. All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis.”
I find it interesting that “the One” has called on the United Nations Security Council, among others, to begin direct talks. Doesn’t he know anything of the UN Security Council – such as Russia’s veto power over any and all resolutions from that very council?
Evey time this man opens his mouth regarding Foreign Policy – I won’t call it stupidity for the man is not stupid – but I will call him completely ignorant, regardless of his 300 foreign policy advisors.
5:56 pm
Actually, they did a fair bit more than just “lobbing some mortar rounds” into a “military enclave.”
They pretty much razed South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali, killing about 1,400 men, women and children in the process. Most of the rest have fled by now, but some still remain trapped under the ruins of what used to be their city and water, food and electricity is absent.
7:43 pm
Never knew that protecting and honoring a fledgling democratic state was hawkish. Beyond the oil there are more far reaching implications to be thought of. The first is America’s image to the rest of the small countries who broke away from Russia in this region. These are people who in the recent years that have grown to respect and love the U.S. They have felt a great debt of gratitude to this country for its commitment to them against Russian tyranny. Now, there will be no trust in the U.S. and Russia can make massive gains in the Caucasuses. Georgia was what one might call the shining beacon in this area and we sat idly by while they got overrun and bullied. Now did Georgia screw up by taking the bait? Yes they did and they acted impetuously, but their backs were against a wall. We should have done more and need to do more against Russia. The last thing we need is a swaggering and arrogant Russian state which has empowered itself against the West through Georgia. Plus our resolve is now going to be questioned by people who trusted us as well as our enemies. Hopefully we can come up with a solution, the Georgian people are worthy of our support and we need to do more.
C.T.
12:15 am
I saw a report on Fox, yes, the ONLY fair and balanced one on the freakin air, anyway, there was this little old 72 year old lady wondering around dazed. She was carrying two suitcases, all that the poor thing had left. This is really bad and I feel for the people of Georgia.
Fraid the Ruskies are trying to go back in time,
Glad out commanders in Iraq let the Georgian troops go back to help their military defend the country.