The “strike” at Daily Kos of pro-Hillary bloggers upset that Obama commenters are being meanies has brought out the rabbits feet and lucky coins of many conservatives as they are frantically rubbing those talismans while chanting “The Democrats are imploding. The Democrats are imploding.”
Would that it were so. Rather than the stresses of the campaign “tearing apart the Democratic Party,” I think what we’re really seeing is a reordering of the liberal blogosphere – an extremely small fringe of the Democratic party whose influence is growing but not decisive in any way. This reordering is being mirrored in the conservative blogosphere and constitutes a battle between realists and idealists.
Hillary Clinton and John McCain are an anathema to the idealists because of their perceived impurity on some cherished issues. They are suspected of being closet conservative/liberals because of their willingness to work with the other party on some issues or, in Hillary’s case, the major beef seems to be that she just isn’t quite liberal enough and takes positions on some issues apparently because she wants to (gasp!) get elected.
This would be an impossibility if she swallowed the progressive agenda whole – something that is lost on the netroots who believe that voters who disagree with them are either evil Republican Rovebots or stupid, ignorant, inbred, goober chewing, bible thumping, gun toting, yip-yips who are too dense to know what is good for them.
McCain is suspect because of his willingness to skewer Republicans and conservatives at the drop of a hat and a perceived coziness with the press. And yet many conservatives such as myself, plan on pulling the lever for the Senator from Arizona despite the fact that like Hillary, McCain does not hew to the idealist’s line 100% of the time.
The Kos “revolt” (I hardly call a couple of dozen writers leaving a website that gets 800,000 hits a day a “revolt”) is not indicative of any large scale civil war in the Democratic party. But it does reveal an interesting scramble among the netroots. My feeling is that there are a lot more realists in the conservative blogosphere than there are on the left. I don’t know whether that is a function of the polarization that Hillary Clinton seems to engender but it certainly shows that the relatively few supporters Hillary has on the lefty blogs are being more and more isolated as the race goes on.
Come November, I expect the Hillary supporters to be voting Democrat even if Obama is on the ticket – something that despite his recent troubles is looking pretty certain at this point. Clinton will not overtake Obama in the pledged count and Obama supporters are the ones more likely to stay at home if their candidate is not on the ballot. Ergo, talk of a Democratic party schism is just that – interesting fodder for the blogs but not very likely by the time November rolls around.
Realism will trump ideology almost every time in both parties.
UPDATE
The New York Times did extensive interviews with the Super Delegates and confirm that unless the Wright/Rezko scandals start to really hurt Obama, he will almost certainly be the nominee. The vast majority of them have rejected Hillary’s “electability” argument and are leaning strongly toward Obama’s “will of the people” meme.
Hillary supporters, being realists for the most part, will eventually – reluctantly – accept this bitter pill and will almost certainly pull together with the Obama camp to help the party win in November.
Does all this make an Obama-Clinton ticket more likely? A week ago I would have said “no chance.” But stranger things have happened when a party is as divided as the Democrats. It may come down to a situation where both sides would refuse the marriage but be forced into a partnership. This would only happen, I believe, if the delegate controversy goes all the way to the floor of the convention. At that point, the only solution that would satisfy would be the forced fusion of both camps.
10:52 pm
I think conservative reaction to the Kos story is overboard, but I also think the DNC candidate could be unelectable.
Obama is very damaged. In two days, he was caught in a lie over contrabutions from Tony Rezko and another lie about his knowledge of his spiritual advisor’s racism and anti-Americanism. Rank and file Democrats will either stay home or vote Republican if Obama’s the nominee.
If the DNC gives the nomination to Hillary, the African-American wing will defect, big time. Without 80 percent of that bloc, a Democrat cannot win.
The Democrats have played a really weak game of chess this year. Proportional delegate allocation and superdelegates make it almost impossible for good electoral politics to prevail.
10:56 pm
[...] UPDATE: Rick Moran at Rightwing Nuthouse disagrees. He says Democrats Will Be Fine By November (Probably) Technorati Tags: superdelegates,new york times Sphere: Related Content [...]
3:58 am
Rick makes a good point which I think applies to both parties. People rubbing their hands over this “schism” should remember the mirror image situation going on only a few short weeks or months ago. Clinton was the “predetermined” winner and the GOP was in “massive disarray” with a blood fued going on between Romney and McCain with several other candidates still in the hunt. Democratic buzzards were circling, exclaiming with undisguised glee that this thing was going to go to the convention… that Romney was unelectable… that McCain’s own party was referring to him with every term up to and including “traitor” and – should he be nominated – that scores of Republicans would either stay home or vote for Hillary in disgust. Hogwash the whole thing was indeed.
Now, except for a handfull of bloviating outliers, the GOP is resigning themeselves to the inevitable and lining up behind McCain. The Democrats will do the same. This is just the exciting season of rhetoric while the Dem candidate’s supporters launch their best hyperbole to get their person over the finish line first. The only difference is they are doing it later and taking longer than the Republicans did.
Another thing to remember is that the people producing new media and their followers still represent a slowly growing, but still very tiny percentage of the voter base. Most of America, sadly, is still barely aware of who’s in the running and won’t begin paying attention until August or September at the earliest, and by then we’ll have two nominees getting ready to debate in an effort to win over the nation for the general election in November.
I would say that any glee over Rezco and Obama’s pastor is also a bit optimistic and overblown. Both relationships are certainly valid areas for examination and discussion, but I’m still waiting to see any real meat on those bones that would move the needle very far in the general election. And let’s remember that pretty much every politician has had some pretty shakey “relationships” and actions in their past and somehow America gets over it. In fact, we have a president right now who had a DWI, faced suspicions of past drug use, and had a multitude of shady relationships with a series of failed business interests, both domestic and abroad with a cozy relationship with some high profile Saudis in the oil industry. None of this ultimately seemed to bother his electability.
No, in the end, I suspect that all of this media drama will be exactly that. And in November we’ll see yet another nail biter just like we have for quite a few years now, and it will all come down to who can GOTV the best, just as it has in the past. The KOS “writers strike” is just the latest piece of fluff in a new media machine waiting to be fed something – anything – 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
11:26 am
Anyone gleefully buying into the “Obama is unelectable” theory might want to remember the media frenzies that rocked Bill Clinton’s campaign in 1992.
Anyone remember the letter he had written to his draft board in which he stated he “loathed” the military? That should have been fatal to a potential commander-in-chief, and those were his words, not his crazy pastor’s. Gennifer Flowers?
Obama’s nutty preacher is a problem, but I doubt it’s fatal. Though I agree that nothing scares the whites away faster than an angry black man, Obama himself is not an angry black man.
The collapse of Bear Stearns on Friday is the kind of event that will sway an election. A badly faltering economy is poison to an incumbent party. Ask George H.W. Bush or Jimmy Carter.
2:55 pm
The Democrats will not be fine in November. Bill Clinton took advantage of our ho-hum attitude towards sins of the flesh and eagerness to take a vacation from history. “Barry” Obama violated the number one taboo: thou shall not falsely accuse America of being a racist nation! The Jeremiah Wright fiasco has effectively ended his campaign. Hillary Clinton, however, will not be able to take advantage of his predicament. Too many black voters will stay home on election Day if she becomes the Democratic Party’s standard bearer. The election is now John Mc Cain’s to lose.
4:35 pm
jazz,
I disagree. These Dem factions aren’t likely to unite and make nice with one another.
“I would say that any glee over Rezco and Obama’s pastor is also a bit optimistic and overblown. Both relationships are certainly valid areas for examination and discussion, but I’m still waiting to see any real meat on those bones that would move the needle very far in the general election. And let’s remember that pretty much every politician has had some pretty shakey “relationships†and actions in their past and somehow America gets over it. In fact, we have a president right now who had a DWI, faced suspicions of past drug use, and had a multitude of shady relationships with a series of failed business interests, both domestic and abroad with a cozy relationship with some high profile Saudis in the oil industry. None of this ultimately seemed to bother his electability.”
First off, I take exception to there being glee at the recent revelation that BHO’s pastor and mentor is an unreconstructed demagogic bigot. I don’t think there are many center-right adherents who want to see a full-on racial meltdown in this country. Yet that seems to be where the Dem’s are headed. Nominate BHO and get a repeat of the 1968-1972 electoral maps. Deny him and watch Denver erupt. That’s my prediction and don’t see how it’s avoided.
While I could be wrong, I don’t see how at this point. To say that, for instance, the DWI didn’t harm Bush’s electability, is to ignore the Florida-2000 fiasco. He had a five-point lead there a week from election day. Had Bush been associated with some white separatist nut-jobs, I dare say that not only his election would have been unlikely but so would even his Rep. nomination.
Denver had better make sure all its insurance policies are up to date and the deductibles have been reset to the lowest #’s possible. This could make Chicago ‘68 look like a picnic.
4:38 pm
“Obama’s nutty preacher is a problem, but I doubt it’s fatal.”
Oh but it so clearly is. Because sooner rather than later Obama will be tied so closely to this fanatic that he will be unable to extricate himself. It’s far too late to throw the loon under the bus and the bus is now headed for the nearest cliff. Especially since everyone really ‘knows’ that at least Michelle Obama agrees completely with this loon, and suspects that a man cannot be somewhere for 20 years without getting a clue about exactly where he is. That Obama is STILL there speaks volumes.
This ‘pastor’ is so viscerally repugnant, that the general election voters will be viscerally turned off and vote accordingly. It is almost a subliminal process.
Goodbye Ohio.
Goodbye Missouri.
Goodbye New Mexico.
Goodbye Virginia.
Goodbye New Hampshire.
Goodbye Pennsylvania.
Goodbye Obama.
4:49 pm
[...] I’m on strike too. After this post your not likely to hear another word about Senators Clinton or Obama from me for awhile. Jane Hamsher puts her finger squarely on it: Obama casts Wright and Ferraro as people whose evolution and politics have root in a different time. He shows both vision and leadership in this analysis. And those who would rather take the discussion into “candidate surrogate gotcha” are, I think, doing so at all our peril. [...]
8:40 am
I heartily agree with David,Chris and Doug. I don’t believe the Democrats will be fine by November. Which faction has exhibited any spirit of compromise ? The closest I can find is Hillarys offer to Obama for veep. And that flew like a bar of lead.
Most of us being being political junkies view current events through a distorted lens. So our opinions are resultantly skewed.
I have had an idea for months now that Democratic Party is going to self destruct to a degree none of us can imagine at this point.
The dynamics at work in this nomination process are so beyond our ability to view them clearly we will be amazed when then happen.