As the race for the White House enters its “malaise phase,” with Democratic candidates struggling to set a world record for talking out of both sides of their mouths without their lips moving while John McCain struggles just to get a word in edgewise, I have caught myself several times the last few weeks trying to shake the feeling of dread – the cold hand of history clapped around my shoulders, its icy grip reminiscent of a time when the world seemed to be spinning out of control and the American people made a conscious decision to radically alter the political landscape in Washington.

I am speaking of 1980, of course. It isn’t that the economy is suffering from out of control inflation, record high interest rates, and near double digit unemployment as was the case during Jimmy Carter’s disastrous interregnum. But the same fear about the future worries ordinary American families that afflicted us back then. And it is beginning to look to me as if the voters are eager to take out their frustrations and anger on the party who is largely responsible for the mess we find ourselves in today; the party of Bush, Cheney, Foley, Cunningham, Ney, Renzi and the whole gang of corrupt, arrogant, venal, greedy Babbitts who have turned the Republican brand into a badge of shame.

You would have to be brain dead not to see the trouble this country is in. As bad as 1980? No, but it certainly is bad enough. Our mortal enemy may not be on the march as the Soviets were in the late 70’s. But al-Qaeda is doing quite well thank you, largely the result of an over reliance on President Musharraf in Pakistan (who took us for $11 billion in military aid like a fast talking scam artist on the midway of some local carnival) and our inability to get NATO to commit combat troops to the fight in Afghanistan. Jesus, if we can’t get the Europeans to recognize what’s at stake in Afghanistan and give us a hand, then either the alliance is kaput or America’s political leadership just isn’t up to the task.

I will brook no argument about Iraq not being a disaster, at least in the near term. It may yet turn out to be a barely passable plus for our interests in the Middle East – given another several years. But what has transpired the previous 5 years has been appalling. It’s been like a 5 year Iranian hostage rescue mission – blunder after blunder committed by our elected leaders and the Pentagon.

I don’t want to hear the argument “Mistakes happen in war.” That may be true. But to carry the adage beyond reason, beyond logic, beyond belief just makes the person spouting that claim look like an idiot. Holy Christ! You would think Bushco would get something right in 5 years. I’ll grant the surge has helped but it has also created other unforeseen problems. Face it; Iraq is a mess and its our own fault. Just thank your lucky stars, I would say to my Republican friends, that the media is so shallow and stupid that unless things really go south in Iraq between now and the election, it will continue to be ignored – despite the fact that the laundry list of problems in that country is growing, not shrinking.

My analogy that Iraq is like the failed hostage rescue, I believe, is a good one. It has placed doubts in the mind of Americans about the competence of our elected leaders while underscoring the fact that our power has its limits. The difference is in the confidence our current voters should have in the military overall. Back in 1980, we saw what years of neglect had done to the military and doubts were raised about its abilities. Not so today. But the recognition that military power cannot solve what ails Iraq has been no less an eye opener for many.

Ronald Reagan famously said that he would rather other nations fear us than love us. I generally subscribe to that notion – especially as it relates to our enemies. But Bush has taken that adage beyond the realm of rhetoric and made it the basis of his foreign policy. When even your allies fear you, it should be obvious that you’ve taken the concept just a bit too far and that somebody, somewhere screwed up royally.

It is one of our glaring weaknesses that we love to be loved by other nations and can’t stand the idea of people thinking beastly things about us. The left has riffed off this meme for decades. But when even our allies give us the cold shoulder because being seen as too close to America is death to their political alliances at home, even a nincompoop realizes a change is in order.

In 1980, Carter managed a foreign policy twofer – being disrespected by our enemies and held in contempt by our friends. Our situation today isn’t the same. But when our friends are reluctant to follow our lead and our enemies feel emboldened to exploit that weakness, the differences hardly matter because the result is similar; our goals are not achieved and the world becomes more dangerous as a result.

As for the economy then and now, there really isn’t much comparison – in a technical sense. But in politics, perception is everything. Rising gas prices has the electorate spooked as do skyrocketing food prices. You can’t get much more basic than gas and food as far as what’s important to American families. And when those two items bite, well you can kiss the shopping trip to Walmart goodbye. Or if the parents do end up shopping for summer clothes for their kids, they will spend a lot less.

Inflation is not a problem yet. But with so much of what we buy dependent on the price of gasoline, how long before the cost of other things begins to creep up as well. And there is no more debilitating disease for an economy than inflation. It saps the will to produce and save when a dollar will be worth substantially less 6 months down the road.

Unemployment is still low by historical standards but that hardly matters when layoffs are starting to happen all over the economy. Who cares if the unemployment rate dipped by a tenth of a point last month? People are not cheered by news like that when they see and know people getting laid off in their town. All they can think of is “Am I next?”

Interest rates are ridiculously low but credit itself is tight because of wary lenders while people are pulling in their horns about making major purchases on their credit cards due to the uncertain future.

Taken as a whole, the economy is still relatively healthy. But “relative” doesn’t mean squat to voters whose perceptions are shaped by their own observations and a relentless drumbeat of criticism by the media and the Democrats – much more the former than the latter when you consider how often people shop for food or fill their tanks.

All of this has a logical ending; 75% of the nation believes we are on the “wrong track.” That may be the understatement of the year because what that figure is really saying is that people do not feel in control of their lives. Things are happening here and abroad that defy many people’s understanding and it has torn many Americans from their moorings and set them adrift politically. More than likely, they will end up tying themselves to the Democrats when all is said and done.

I believe John McCain realizes this which is why he is not pulling punches about how bad things are. Unlike Carter who, in 1980, tried to convince the voters that they were doing alright with inflation and unemployment at record highs while trying to scare people into thinking Reagan was a monster, McCain has judged the mood of the country correctly so far. He isn’t going after Obama nor is he soft pedalling our problems. I think that this is one reason he isn’t 10 points behind at this point (only that CBS poll has him that far behind).

As a general election strategy, I’m not so sure. Once the Democrats really begin their assault, voters will think Bush is running for a third term. Just about every commercial that features McCain for the Democrats will also have a picture of Bush – count on it. Whether the Arizona senator can successfully perform a Bushectomy and remove the most unpopular president in the history of polls from the body of his campaign remains to be seen. I doubt it. The Democrats will be rolling in 527 money thanks to Daddy Warbucks Soros and the rest of his billionaire crew.

My gut feeling – totally speculative at this point – is that the race between Obama and McCain will be close until after the debates are over – about two weeks before the campaign ends. At that point, I think voters will start to break heavily for the Democrats and it will be something of a rout. Perhaps not a 1980 style kick in the groin rejection of one party for another. But I fully expect the GOP to get slapped pretty hard by the electorate – well deserved in my view.

I really do hope I’m wrong – will gladly eat my share of crow if this analysis is off base. But I would say to my Republican friends that we better start getting used to wandering in the political wilderness. It may be a long time before we find our way back to where we were just a few short years ago.