The withdrawal of Harriet Miers from consideration for Supreme Court Justice is the best possible outcome to a messy, family quarrel. The damage to the President will be minimal within the party although how it will play in the hinterlands is an entirely different matter. The important thing is that a source of friction in Republican ranks will have been eliminated at a most opportune moment.
I have little doubt that the White House sees the writing on the wall with regards to the Special Prosecutors impending indictments of high level administration officials in the Plame Affair. They perhaps even have advanced knowledge of who might be on Fitzgerald’s chopping block. All signs point to at the very least an indictment on perjury for Scooter Libby along with probable obstruction of justice charges. But the President’s real worry is the possible exposure of his top aide Karl Rove to charges of perjury.
In this context, the withdrawal of Miers can be seen as strengthening the President’s hand as now there will be no excuse for Republicans not to stand shoulder to shoulder with the President through what is going to be the roughest part of his Presidency. The storm about to break in Washington among the media and the left will be loud and long. The indictments will dominate the news for weeks. A united party will help offset the drumbeat of criticism that is sure to follow any actions by the Special Prosecutor.
If Rove especially has to walk the plank, Republicans must close ranks around the President to avoid a disaster – near term, anyway. Any hint of Republican disunity could doom the President’s legislative agenda for the remainder of his term. As I wrote here, any fracturing of the Republican party at this point would make Bush a lame duck long before his time. And the question of how this will play in the 2006 midterms is anyone’s guess but I suspect that much will be forgotten by next November and any pickups by the Democrats will be as a result of depressed Republican turnout.
That depressed turnout will be traced to the President’s continuing refusal to address spending and immigration issues – both near and dear to the hearts of his base supporters. And as I suspect that the President many now nominate a Supreme Court Justice even more unacceptable to those who opposed Miers (Justice Gonzalez?), Bush may be faced with more internal problems in the future. But for the moment, Republicans can be one big happy family again – something that will be of comfort to the President after the Special Prosecutor drops the other shoe.
Miers was not just a poor choice, she was the wrong choice. The President has a chance to do things better the next time around, but don’t hold your breath waiting for the nomination of a constitutionalist to the Court. With the Administration on the run because of the coming indictments, Democrats will smell blood in the water and attempt to draw out the nomination battle of such a nominee until after the 2006 elections where they hope to get a majority in the Senate. This would insure a more moderate Justice coming before the Senate for approval.
The opponents of Miers believe they have won. Perhaps they can inform me of exactly what it is they find in victory that makes them happy? The President, temporarily humiliated, the Democrats strengthened, and the probable nomination of someone even more objectionable to them would not seem to be parameters of winning – at least not in my neck of the woods. So beyond ideological satisfaction, what have you really accomplished?
You may have guaranteed a more liberal court than we have now or would have had with Miers. Congratulations, guys. What do you do for an encore?
UPDATE
Michelle Malkin exclaims “Relief!” and links to dozens of others who weigh on on the bad news.
The Captain also seems relieved and writes “Now can we nominate a candidate whose qualities and track record presumes we control the Senate?
Good luck on that one, Ed.
9:35 am
Icy Hot Judgaz Member Withdraws Nomination
Last week, I came out of my peyote induced haze to find out a Supreme Court nominee from President Bush might be filibustered by Republicans while supported by Democrats. At the time, I thought that I was just having a bad trip and soon the little mi…
10:06 am
My blog’s polling always showed that her nomination was weak within Bush’s base; 35% of the GOP base was DEEPLY OPPOSED; a president cannot govern effectively without a third of his base.
IN OTHER WORDS: Her withdrawal proves that ELECTIONS COUNT! When an elected leader fails to satisfy the folks who elected him they will NOT be happy. And elected leaders need to keep their supporters happy; that’s DEMOCRACY IN ACTION.
I hope Bush nominates a stellar JUDGE and constitutional SCHOLAR who will satisfy the base who ELECTED HIM TO DO JUST THAT! (Just as I would expect that Hillary would nominate liberals – just as her husbnad Bill did.)
10:37 am
A Supreme Victory for All Republicans
This is a victory not for the right-wing of the Republican party, but for all Republicans. This is not a defeat; it is a victory for the diversity of thought.
10:51 am
I’m so mad at the “elitist” Punditocracy that I could scream. If you think that with her withdrawal the “source of friction” is gone, you are very much mistaken. This whole self defeating affair has been demoralizing and insulting. The scorn and contempt and mockery directed towards MS. Miers has been deplorable and has made me ashamed. She and the President deserved better. I’m one of those “Heartland” Christian Conservatives that feel betrayed. I’m the one that manned the phone banks, and worked the fairs and festivals, and placed signs and stickers and collected and made financial contributions to try to get George Bush elected and then re-elected. I trust him more than the intellegensia. I’ve been made to feel like your views only count if you are a rich, in the beltway/big city pundit.
1:38 pm
I think now it’s up to Bush. He can lead or he can fall back on “unity” with the Democrats and doom Republicans. If he’d put up a constitutionalist judge and start demanding hearings and support from Senate Republicans, he’d do very well for himself and Republicans overall. If he goes with a more moderate selection, say hello to President Clinton II.
I think the conservatives WANT a fight. They WANT a battle in the Senate. I just don’t think Bush and the Senate Republicans care.
1:45 pm
With the title “The Best Possible Outcome”, I thought you were talking about the World Series. Oh. That was the previous post. Congrats!
But to the topic at hand. I didn’t have strong feelings about the Miers nomination to begin with, but I thought Bush missed a great opportunity by trying to avoid the fight that he would have had over someone like Janice Rogers Brown. Let’s have that fight.
3:01 pm
Rick,
This is a great day. While the Left will spin this as weakness or caving to the wing nut conservatives, the truth is, conservatives held to their core principles without personally attacking Miers. I gave Miers the benefit of the doubt and held my reservations until the hearings. When the speech information began to appear, it was clear that Miers was not suitable for the Court. There had been no mention of democrats in this debate, Roe was not the issue but the clear standards of judicial adherence to the Constitution. I think it can be said, this is a victory for the Party and the Conservative movement. The David Gurgens, Andy Cards, old GOP get along with Georgetown crowd have been defeated once and for all. Bush 41 paid a high price to acquiesce to them, Bush 43 almost made the same mistake. Powell was a terrible Secretary of State, a principled Rice has accomplished more in 6 months than the lovable Georgetown Powell could ever expect to. This is the beginning of Bush’s rise to real power, winning the judicial fight on principle, will make them fear him.
4:41 pm
Miers Withdraws
WASHINGTON (AP) — Harriet Miers withdrew her nomination to be a Supreme Court justice Thursday in the face of stiff opposition and mounting criticism about her qualifications.
President Bush said he reluctantly accepted her decision to withdraw, aft…
4:42 pm
All you so-called “conservatives†surely know that they don’t come much more conservative than the Cato Institute, at least on fiscal policy. Well the Cato Institute has concluded that George W. Bush and the Republican Congressional Majority has been viciously screwing you, me and every other ordinary American. Don’t take my word for it, read the article yourself, if you have the stomach for it.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa543.pdf
6:34 pm
Everyone seems to be pointing the finger and assigning blame to the White House. Although they do deserve a significant protion of the blame, it’s time we also assign some of the blame to McCain and the gang of seven.
We have been heard and we are energized. Let’s now focus that energy on McCain and solve that issue too.
9:07 pm
Miers Withdraws Her Nomination
Breaking on Fox News: Harriet Miers is withdrawing her name from consideration as a Supreme Court justice, for reasons related to demands of the release of White House documents. President Bush reluctantly accepts her request for withdrawal. This ha…
9:22 pm
Supreme Court: Miers Withdraws
Harriet Miers gives up and (almost every) Conservative breathes a sigh of relief. Now we’ll see if Bush understands how dangerous is to go against his own electoral base. In RealClearPolitics’ short-list, Camillo chooses Michael McConnell. We don’t …
9:24 pm
It is really amazing to me that the people who spent the last 3 weeks trashing the president and his friend now expect him to select their preferred candidate. Hmmmm….it seems to me that Luttig, McConnell, et al just got assigned to the trash bin along with Miers.
10:01 pm
Black redneck hit the nail on the head. Almost without exception the Pat Buchannen gang that just kicked our president in the gut is expecting him to thank them for stabbing him in the back. He is not going to choose Luddig or Powell. If we John Paul Stevens keeled over tomorrow No one on Laura Ingrams short list has a chance in hell of getting nominated. Has it ever occured to you that the President might actually disagree with you? What ego!
7:12 pm
Carnival of the Vicious, Invading Paleface Bastards #4
Welcome to the fourth edition of the Carnival of the Vicious, Invading Paleface Bastards, the oldest carnival devoted solely to Illinois issues and Illinois bloggers. If you are new to the carnival, you may be worndering about the name. Some…