GOP Bloggers has a 2008 Presidential straw poll going (I cast my ballot at Captains Quarters) that so far, shows some surprising results:
First Choice:
Gingrich 1188 24.6%
Giuliani 1086 22.4%
Romney 908 18.8%
513 10.6%
McCain 315 6.5%
Tancredo 311 6.4%
Hagel 133 2.7%
Brownback 116 2.4%
Hunter 95 2%
Huckabee 90 1.9%
Frist 58 1.2%
Pataki 26 0.5%
Candidate Acceptability:
Net Votes + Votes – Votes
Brownback -646 -13.3% 1470 30.4 2116 43.7
Frist -2517 -52% 746 15.4 3263 67.4
Gingrich 1590 +32.9% 2823 58.3 1233 25.5
Giuliani 1762 +36.4% 2911 60.2 1149 23.7
Hagel -2273 -47% 737 15.2 3010 62.2
Huckabee -504 -10.4% 1523 31.5 2027 41.9
Hunter -669 -13.8% 1441 29.8 2110 43.6
McCain -1520 -31.4% 1327 27.4 2847 58.8
Pataki -2327 -48.1% 786 16.2 3113 64.3
Romney 1895 +39.2% 2946 60.9 1051 21.7
Tancredo -340 -7% 1708 35.3 2048 42.3
Who looks good after Tuesday:
Gingrich 1484 30.7%
Giuliani 1322 27.3%
Romney 1084 22.4%
McCain 633 13.1%
316 6.5%
The elevation of Gingrich from second tier candidate to frontrunner is not unexpected, to me anyway. And although it’s very early going in this straw poll, I have a sneaking suspicion that old Newt’s stock has soared as a result of the election. Gingrich made himself extremely visible the last few weeks of the campaign with well written, passionate articles calling on the GOP to unite for the election. He reminded Republicans that despite his personal and political baggage, he is still one of the most articulate and thoughtful men in public life.
Has he successfully “re-invented” himself so that he can appeal to independents who then might forget his hyper partisan stint as Speaker? One thing for sure, if he’s nominated, the left will be sharpening the long knives and would relish cutting him to pieces over his messy personal and financial life as well as some of his more problematic utterances. Lot of history for Newt to overcome and frankly, while I will sit and listen to anything he has to say, I wouldn’t vote for him in a Republican primary.
The drop off by John McCain was also to be expected. He will now be closely identified with Tuesday’s debacle and will find conservative support even harder to come by. Like Guiliani, McCain would probably be a better general election candidate than a favorite for the nomination. But don’t count either of those gents out. They are both battlers and if they declare their candidacy, it’s because they are in it to win.
I’ll be interested to see as the totals for this poll climb just where Mitt Romney ends up. I have yet to form a strong opinion about the man – only a general feeling of competence and integrity. Given the past, that might be a winning combination in 2008.
Bill Frist is toast. I doubt he’ll even run. If he does, he will be embarrassed. And Duncan Hunter is running for Vice President – he can’t be taken seriously as a Presidential candidate.
Don’t count out Pataki (or even Mayor Bloomberg). Both men could raise a ton of money and could emerge as viable alternatives if a bloodbath occurs between social conservatives and libertarians. But given the primary system as it is today, both would have to be considered extreme longshots.
The rest – Hagel, Brownback, Tancredo, and Huckabee would all have to start now and breakout early for a shot at either the top slot or Veep. Single issue candidates like Tancredo don’t have a chance (although a Veep nomination is not out of the question). Nobody likes Chuck Hagel and no one has ever heard of Sam Brownback outside of us political junkies. Huckabee? I might move to Australia if we elect a man named Huckabee President of the United States (just kidding).
Don’t you just love politics? Here we are, less than 72 hours after one election and we’re already talking about the next one. I know there are some who would wish this is not so. But all of this is so far under most people’s radar that I don’t see the harm. And it is a fun intellectual exercise.
Let the games begin!
11:51 am
Bolton
12:06 pm
Because of this last election, I’d bet a pile of gold that the next president will be a Republican. Come 2008, voters will be well aware that combining the White House with solid Democratic majorities in Congress would court as great a disaster as the one we went through.
For that reason, I’d put my money on a Republican candidate who is willing to work with a Democratic Congress, instead of declaring total war on it.
I’d put my money on Hagel or Bloomberg.
12:44 pm
As a Democrat, it’s going to be fascinating to see how the Republicans choose their nominee.
Can Romney win in a party dominated by evangelical Christians?
Can Giuliani the Drag Queen win in a party built on the pillars of anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage policy?
Will the entire conservative blogosphere have their heads explode if McCain wins the nomination?
11:32 pm
Republicans will vote for pragmatism in 2008. They’ve only got two years, and they’ll gladly put off the intra-movement struggle you’re talking about on this blog in order to ensure that Hillary and Pelosi don’t get to socialize society together.
The names that keep coming up post-election are McCain, Rudy, and Romney. Newt’s maybe a distant fourth, though he looked better before the election than he does now, as everyone now remembers how Newt seems unelectable, and electability is paramount.
Romney is coming up a lot because a) he’s the only all-around conservative left in the field and b) he’s just now being noticed by many observers. Those of us who have been watching him for awhile have to question his potency post-election. Again, if there were still a GOP Congress to check President Hillary, he might be a worthwhile risk, especially if the alternative is McCain. But he’s still very green, and he’s only won one statewide race, and it’s hard to see Republicans taking such a great risk by nominating him.
I think it’s basically down to Rudy or McCain. Rudy has the edge right now, because Republicans love him, and McCain they can’t stand. McCain’s only shot against Giuliani is to make the race about Rudy’s past positions and personal life, and even then he has to assume that such a smear campaign won’t backfire. I think Rudy will be the nominee, though I’d have to say McCain’s moved into second place, while before the election I probably would’ve put Mitt in second.
12:30 pm
I saw McCain a little while back saying how he was in favor of same sex marriages so long as they were just religious ceremonies and not legal marriages. If he keeps talking like that he will lose the respect of the Independents and Democrats who might support him. I suspect a lot of people in favor of same sex marriage and civil unions would rather support someone they otherwise like even if he was against same sex unions over someone who tried to have it both ways.