PART OF A MASSIVE CROWD GATHERED IN DOWNTOWN BEIRUT IN SUPPORT OF HIZBULLAH’S EFFORT TO BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER SINIORA

A crowd estimated at hundreds of thousands is occupying central Beirut today in a massive “open ended sit in” organized by Hizbullah and designed to topple the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora:

Hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters led by the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hizbullah staged an open-ended sit-in in downtown Beirut Friday in a bid to topple Prime Minister Fouad Saniora’s government.

Army troops and armored personnel carriers were heavily deployed around Saniora’s offices, where the premier and other cabinet ministers have been residing for over a week after the assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel.

Barbed wire fences as high as two meters were erected around the premises as heavily-armed troops kept demonstrators around 150 meters away.

In an apparent effort to avoid friction, Hizbullah “disciplinary members” formed a chain separating the protesters from security forces.

Protesters brandished Lebanese flags and white banners that read: “Down with Feltman’s government,” in reference to the Saniora cabinet which has been termed by Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah the government of U.S. ambassador Jeffrey Feltman.

“We want a national unity government,” and “We want a clean government,” other banners read.

Obviously well organized, most of these people don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. This leaves Siniora with something of a dilemma. Does he crack down by having the army move in to scatter the protesters? Or does he try and wait Nasrallah out, hoping that a firm stand will call Hizbullah’s bluff?

The problem with the former option is that it almost certainly will ignite sectarian violence. And the problem with the latter is that evidently, Nasrallah plans on escalating things until he gets what he wants: Siniora gone and a “National Unity Government” that will give Hizbullah veto power over the cabinet in his place:

Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Kassem said the protests would not end until Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s cabinet fell.

“This government will not take Lebanon to the abyss. We have several steps if this government does not respond but I tell them you will not be able to rule Lebanon with an American administration,” he told Hezbollah’s al-Manar television.

One shudders to contemplate what “several steps” Nasrallah might have in mind to hasten Siniora’s exit.

In a bid to keep the number of protesters down, the government apparently closed roads into Beirut:

Will Beirut be transformed today into the “capital of Arabism, resistance and unity,” as Hassan Nasrallah described it yesterday in a statement, or will Lebanon come under a regime of “religious tyranny,” as Marwan Hamade, minister of communications and an associate of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, warns? The efforts of Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, to find some magical formula to avert the danger will continue today, but it seems that Nasrallah will not pass up a show of force, something he has been planning for weeks and which was postponed following the assassination of Pierre Gemayel.

The government of Lebanon is preparing for such an eventuality, with roads in the outskirts of Beirut being closed by the army in an effort to prevent Hezbollah supporters from the countryside entering the city and moving toward the main squares. But it is clear to both sides that the situation is so explosive that any violent confrontation in one of the districts is capable of setting Lebanon ablaze, even though both the government and Hezbollah are talking of quiet demonstrations and strikes.

Anti-American sentiment is running high among the protesters, ginned up by the Hizbullah propaganda arm al-Manar, whose broadcasts have been referring to Siniora’s government as “Feltman’s Government” – a reference to US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Nasrallah himself has taken up this mantra and it seems to have its desired effect; many protesters are carrying signs referring to Feltman and undue American influence in Lebanon.

Druze leader Walid Jumblat – who knows a thing or two about survival – urged his March 14th comrades to remain patient:

“Very calmly, we will remain steadfast,” he told a news conference on Friday. “We will confront (the opposition) calmly. We will remain in our houses and fly the Lebanese flags… We will wait for a month, for two months… and watch them.”

Siniora himself addressed the nation with a plea for calm but made it clear that the democratically elected government would not give in to Hizbullah’s demands:

Premier Fouad Saniora warned Thursday that Lebanon’s democracy is in danger but vowed that his government will fight attempts to bring back foreign tutelage on Lebanon.

“Lebanon’s independence is threatened and its democratic system is in danger,” Saniora said in a nationally televised address from the Grand Serail, on the eve of street protests by Hizbullah and its allies aimed at ousting his cabinet.

“Do not be afraid and do not despair. We have a rightful cause,” Saniora told the Lebanese. “Threats will not deter us. Maneuvers and ultimatums will not terrorize us.”

He said his government will fight against “the return of the tutelage,” an apparent reference to Syria’s military and political domination in Lebanon which ended in April 2005.

“We will not allow any coup against our democratic regime,” he said.

Saniora also urged the Lebanese to stand by the “legitimate” government, adding that the only way to bring down the cabinet is through the legislature.

“There is no way to topple the government except through parliament which has given it its vote of confidence,” he said.

Parliament has been effectively prorogued which means that if Hizbullah is going to bring down the government, more drastic action will be necessary.

For the March 14th Forces, it is now a matter of survival. Nasrallah has placed himself out on a limb from which he cannot easily crawl back. If he and his bully boys leave the streets without bringing down the government, it would be a huge blow to his prestige and set back his cause months, perhaps forever. This is why I believe it is likely that, in the end, Nasrallah will be forced to resort to the gun in order to get his way.

His patrone in Damascus may be able to engineer an “incident” that would justify Hizbullah’s coup – at least in the eyes of the Shias. At that point, the two sides would begin tearing at each other.

Most analysts expect Hizbullah to win something of a quick victory given the fact that they are better armed than any potential coalition of adversaries and better trained than the Lebanese army (who would probably sit out a civil war anyway). But what Nasrallah would then do with the smoking ruins of the tiny country remains to be seen. Once ignited, a civil war has a nasty habit of simmering for years. And any effort he would make to establish an Islamic theocracy like the one in Iran would be met with stiff opposition from this, the most secular and westernized of Arab states.

Abu Kais blogging over at Michael Totten’s blog sums up his feelings poignantly:

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora delivered another pretty speech which I won’t quote, because I think it’s useless, given that the man will keep turning the other cheek until he ends up on Hizbullah and Assad’s cross.

My emotions are clearly running high. All I see in front me, as a Lebanese Shia, is Nasrallah’s face as he kidnaps my child into the servitude of his dark lords.

Courage my friend.

HIZBULLAH SEEMS TO HAVE ORGANIZED THE DEMONSTRATION EXTREMELY WELL. IN ADDITION TO PORTABLE TOILETS, THE TENTS ARE FOR MEDICAL PERSONNEL. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FOOD ARE BEING BROUGHT IN TO FEED THE MULTITUDES.

THE FACE OF THE FUTURE IN LEBANON?

UPDATE

Jim Hoft: “There is still a cancer in Lebanon.” Indeed.

Malkin: “Where are the pro-Western, anti-jihad demonstrators?” For the moment, quiescent. Some Lebanese bloggers are calling for counter-demonstrations but the admonition of Siniora and Jumblat to remain at home is working so far.

If it begins to look like civil war is imminent, I expect we’ll see plenty of the March 14th Forces on hand.