Allah has the grim details. He points to a surprise; “minor” troop increases are recommended. I can see their point. As I mentioned in my post from this morning, increasing troops won’t do any good unless there is corresponding political movement from Maliki’s government that will take some air out of the insurgency by opening a frank dialogue with the Sunnis and somehow diminish the role of Mookie al-Sadr in the violence:
It sounds like the leaks were accurate. They want a significant number of troops withdrawn soon — ideally within 16 months — and the rest redeployed to advise and support the Iraqi army. (Minor surprise: first they want a minor increase.) And of course they want us to talk to Iran and Syria, an initiative which most Americans (including most Republicans) support.
What could be significant about the ISG is that they may have initiated a change in the national conversation about Iraq. By painting such a dire picture of what is happening there and pointing out the catastrophe that is in the making, while establishing themselves as a bi-partisan voice, perhaps we can get away from this stupid, self defeating back and forth about “blame” which only scores political points and matters not a bit to what needs to be done, and start working together to figure out how we’re going to get out of this mess without blowing up the world in the process.
Certainly I have been critical of the ISG in that here are supposedly the greatest foreign policy and military brains in the country and this is the best they can do? I’m not looking for “victory” (whatever that means) but I am looking to avoid unmitigated disaster. And folks, this just doesn’t cut it. Too heavy reliance on the Iraqi military that will not be ready for any kind of security handoff in 16 months. Asking Maliki – actually pressuring the Prime Minister – to act in ways not in his best political interest (and that might get him killed by his own Shia supporters). And hardly a word about al-Qaeda in Iraq who, after all, is the real enemy and should be hunted down ruthlessly and killed.
Baker botched it. Giving a baseball analogy, he made sure he didn’t strike out by trying for a single when he should have risked it all and gone for the home run. His greatest fear evidently was that Bush would ignore their recommendations. That should have been the least of his worries. Bush resides somewhere between fanatasyland (“We’re winning”) and the river denial. The only way to shake the CIC out of this stupor would have been to dazzle him. Instead, Bush is perfectly comfortable with saying that the ISG is only one avenue in the way forward and that he has other choices.
Does Bush really believe that things are not that bad in Iraq? Watching him today, I wonder. While I don’t expect him to be wringing his hands crying “Woe is us” I was hoping for some indication that there is a sense of urgency attached to the ISG recommendations for him. And while he sits and ponders a change in course, Iraq slips further down the slippery slope and toward the abyss. By the time he gets around to deciding what to do, events may have outstripped any actions he might take. And no one seems to be able to impress this upon him. He’s been dawdling since before the election and things are worse today than they were the first week in November. What are they going to be like the first week in January?
Regardless of what the ISG report recommends, Bush must decide and decide quickly. The diplomatic options can wait. But whatever he’s going to do about troop strength or redeployments should have been done a month ago.
“The way forward” involves movement. Get going, Mr. President.
UPDATE
What’s the rush, you ask?
Conditions in Iraq are “grave and deteriorating,” with the prospect that a “slide toward chaos” could topple the U.S.-backed government and trigger a regional war unless the United States changes course and seeks a broader diplomatic and political solution involving all of Iraq’s neighbors, according to a bipartisan panel that gave its recommendations to President Bush and Congress today.In what amounts to the most extensive independent assessment of the nearly four-year-old conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 2,800 Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis, the Iraq Study Group paints a bleak picture of a nation that Bush has repeatedly vowed to transform into a beacon of freedom and democracy in the Middle East.
Despite a list of 79 recommendations meant to encourage regional diplomacy and lead to a reduction of U.S. forces over the next year, the panel acknowledges that stability in Iraq may be impossible to achieve any time soon.
The group’s recommendations for the way forward in Iraq focus largely on building a broad international consensus for helping the nation, pushing Iraq to meet a set of rather ambitious deadlines for internal progress, and gradually reducing the U.S. troop presence there while boosting support for Iraqi army control of the security situation.
And Dan Balz agrees with me about the Iraq Study Group being able to change the national conversation: “Iraq Study to Reshape National Debate About War:”
The real value of the bipartisan report may come in pushing Bush and Democratic leaders in Congress toward more cooperative efforts to develop a workable strategy for beginning to disengage from combat in Iraq without leaving that country and the region in chaos.Bush alluded to that this morning. “The country, in my judgment, is tired of pure political bickering that happens in Washington and they understand that on this important issue of war and peace, it is best for our country to work together,” he said.
Bush has contributed to the climate of distrust and polarization. Bush, Vice President Cheney and other Republicans used the fall campaign to warn that Democrats favor a strategy of capitulation to the terrorists. As Bush put it in October, “their approach comes down to this: “The terrorists win and America loses.”
But the Democrats, too, approached the Iraq debate through much of the past year as an opportunity to score political points ahead of the midterm elections. Those elections are now history, and the Baker-Hamilton report now stands front and center.
As Baker noted this morning in unveiling the findings, “there is no magic formula” that will convert Iraq into a qualified success story. Managing failure, preventing things from becoming worse and gradually turning around a bleak situation in the Middle East are the immediate challenges facing the president and the Democrats in Congress.
1:01 pm
Assessing The Iraq Study Group Report
In one of the most troubling aspects of the report it calls for greater involvement of Iran and Syria – the two countries that have been feeding the insurgency with arms and support.
...
1:08 pm
[...] Right Wing Nut House [...]
1:38 pm
The ISG Report
So the Baker report (PDF) is out finally and what do we get for it? (Html version here) "Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events within Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the United…
1:43 pm
I guess the ISG was formed to put an end to political back biting over Iraq by issuing bipartisan, consensus recommendations. I think many people assumed that because the recommendations are bipartisan and consensus, they would actually be effective solutions. Not necessarily so.
1:46 pm
Absolutely 100% spot on Doug. Read what Kristol has to say at Hot Air. He calls the entire document “unserious.”
2:58 pm
From the ISG: “The group’s recommendations for the way forward in Iraq focus largely on building a broad international consensus for helping the nation, pushing Iraq to meet a set of rather ambitious deadlines for internal progress, and gradually reducing the U.S. troop presence there while boosting support for Iraqi army control of the security situation.”
Good G*d, that was the Bush plan – “We’ll stand down when they stand up. Here are the internal deadlines we have for Iraq – Constitution, elections, etc. We have a coalition to help Iraq.”
Our President looked like hell this morning at the ISG press conference. I fear he has spun such an imaginary world re: Iraq for so long that it has left him frozen and unable to move, now that everyone, including Laura and the dog, sees Iraq as a failed adventure. There are essentially no more troops to add in Iraq and any withdrawal of troops concedes the clusterf**k analysis. I fear we will “stay the course” for the rest of President Bush’s administration, with the evermounting death, destruction and expense of this misadventure. Our President cannot admit failure in any meaningful way. Perhaps Congress will find the guts to cut off funding for this mess, but I would not rely on that much fortitude from the incoming Congresspeople.
If Bush and Cheney had any fortitude or decency, they would resign post-haste. We were promised a billion dollar democracy in Iraq. Instead, we have a 350 billion dollar civil war with no end in sight. We will, as a nation, spend decades and trillions working our way out of this boondoggle and its aftermath. I fear the 9/11 hijackers have won a far larger victory than they could have ever imagined.
3:18 pm
Bloggers React: The Iraq Study Group Report
The report is available here. I’ll be rounding up some reaction from the blogosphere and add my own thoughts after I’ve read the report.
Little Green Footballs: It advocates “dialog†with our worst enemies, including the madman who, wit…
3:39 pm
Bloggers React: The Iraq Study Group Report
The report is now available. I’ll be rounding up some reaction from the blogosphere and add my own thoughts after I’ve read thought the report. My initial thoughts are that the ideas presented in the report don’t seem worthy of…
4:20 pm
I scanned through the report. What I came away with was that the Iraqi people don’t want to do the heavy lifting to make this work. If sects and tribes are more important to them, it never will work. It’s that simple.
One has to want a democratic form of government and be willing to pay the price to get and keep it. We can’t make them want it.
As far as engaging Iran and Syria, I suppose we can talk but I fail to see what kind of permanent agreement could come out of it. IMO, there would have to be some complete change of thinking on their part and I wonder why they would do that. We’re the beggars and they know it.
One thing I agree with the report on. It’s a mess and isn’t going to get better any time soon. I just don’t want anymore American soldiers dying for people who won’t fight. Train them, yes. Die for them, no.
4:27 pm
You remain the smartest voice on the right. Good post.
4:29 pm
‘It is over’
... that was the quote from NBC’s Tim Russert this afternoon, referring to what he says a senior Republican told him on condition of anonymity. The unnamed official was talking about the Iraq war, and the neoconservative dream of building a democrati…
6:39 pm
Rick, I don’t often agree with you politically but I do respect that you are very willing to cry foul when the circumstances demand it. Admittedly, more so than am I. On Bush ignoring the ISG you are exactly right. Although, to me, the reason is that GWB is trying to just run the clock out on his presidency. He will likely only give lip service to this report at best. His ultimate plan simply is, I fear, to kick the can down the road and leave it for another president to clean the whole mess up. The report from what little I have read does nothing substantial when something very substantial is needed.
8:40 pm
One thing to keep in mind when fighting an insurgency is that often less=more. In other words, fewer troops may be actually more effective in combating the insurgency. Our forces don’t have the skills or training to referee a sectarian conflict. In that regard more troops would be counterproductive.
9:34 pm
ISG Report Fails to Address Issue
Anything less, is to pit terror upon the Free world, confusing aggression with prevention; and prohibiting function of a World in support of int’l laws.
Rick Moran posts: THE ISG REPORT: NOT EXACTLY
“BLOOD, SWEAT, AND TEARS; “Baker botched it. Gi…
9:42 pm
I cannot begin to image the outrage moms and dads,brothers and sisters,wives and husbands who have lost thier loved ones in this “war” will now feel. Can you imagine if your only son died for this…for what ? And would you want your son going over there now, knowing he may die for this ? Bush and his admin. had a complete lack of understanding of Islam and the Middle East. And truth be told we should have stayed out of Iraq (we have only nade Iran teh strong man in the region now) and saved our resources (including US servicemen)for a confrontation with Iran, all along THEY have been the bigger danger then Saddam. But Bush in his pride just had to try and do what his daddy didn’t finish and look what it has wrought. We will end up selling out Israel and anyone else who thought we actually stood for something. We stand for nothing anymore ! Sorry fellow Americans but the glory days of the United States are well behind her, get used to it, this is our future. I used to support Bush and defend him when my leftist coworkers berailed him as an idiot, I’m not so sure now they were far off. Idiot or deceived, neither is forgivable.
9:49 pm
and another thing…can you tell m why Bush would pick the new Sect.of Defense he did ? What does this tell you of his judgment ? Did you hear the man’s confirmation hearing. Was this guy recommended by Bush Sr. too ? I guess Bush knows he has f*cked up and is now gathering around himself men who will beat the drum to retreat, appease etc. And Bush will say “after consideration of the wisdom of these advisors I will follow their lead…” he needs a way out and they have provided the cover for him.
12:10 am
Lost in this conversation is any helpful discussion regarding the Will of the American People. I am not sure our leaders or the pundits fully understand this dynamic. Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney wrongly make the point last week in their Op-ed (New York Times November 28, 2006, OP-ED) piece that:
“… Tet and Somalia were not defeats. They were success perceived as failures. Such stark divergence between perception and reality is common in wartime, when people’s beliefs about which side wins and which loses are often driven by psychological factors that have nothing to do with events on the battlefield.â€
The battlefield in the Vietnam War and in Somalia was not only on the ground where the combat units fought. It was much bigger than that. Johnson and Tierney do not seem to understand that the battlefield included the ability of our political leaders to cultivate and sustain a “unified national will.†In regard to the Vietnam War and in Somalia, we can say that our national leadership was unequal to the task and was defeated. It is not a media generated false perception but rather a grim reality that this nation must be fought (against our enemies) in a seamless universe of war that includes multiple and varied dimensions. One of these dimensions is military action. Another dimension is the commitment of the people. Both are instruments of war, both can contribute to victory and both can be subject to defeat. In combat, our leaders must lead and develop both. I don’t think our congress and executive branch have understood this. I think the Vietcong did:
‘‘’You know you never defeated us on the battlefield,’ said the American colonel. The North Vietnamese colonel pondered this remark a moment. ‘That may be so,’ he replied, ‘but it is also irrelevant.’” – Harry G. Summers On Strategy
I remember in 1976 at USMC The Basic School (TBS) in Quantico, VA seeing a military instructional movie regarding communication security in the Vietnam War. According to this movie the Vietcong had developed incredible electronic warfare capability using the most humble of equipment. The movie described the apparently laxity of communication security by the US forces and the great success the communists had in compromising our communications in the most deadly ways for our soldiers and marines. If this was true than it described a dimension of war that was not given due leadership consideration at the time. I believe this same “type†of conceptual error is being made in the US war in Iraq. There are dimension(s) of this war that have not been given due consideration by the national leadership. In the same way that our company commanders must use their unit as an instrument of combat and must “fight their company†against the enemy, our national leaders must “fight the nation†in time of war. I am saying that in the universe of war there is a seamless environment composed of many dimensions. One of the dimensions is the commitment of the people. Our elected government has failed to understand this in Iraq.
The organized application of violence on the battlefield is clearly the most dramatic and traumatic component of war…, but it is not the only one. If national leadership takes this country into a war and does not have a legitimate plan to cultivate and sustain a “unified national will†to support that war than they have not done their job. It is not a problem of the press, it is a failure in leadership. Can you imagine a unit leader, leading his or her company into an attack without reconnaissance, without considering the situation, mission, execution, admin and logistics, and command and signal? This administration has done the moral and operational equivalent of this kind of unacceptable and poor performance. I am saying that it is not “perception” but reality: one of the components of war is the will of the American People. It is simultaneously a weapon against the enemy and an objective of opposing forces. If we go into war without a plan and contingency plans or if we fail to execute a plan to cultivate and sustain a unified national will we are fighting with our hands tied behind our back.
Whatever we do in Iraq at this dismal point in time, if we do not have a national leadership that cultivates and sustains with integrity, an unified national will than we can say once again, (to paraphrase Bernard B. Fall) that our elected government is accountably “unequal to the task†that is at least Iraq.
(Around Midnight at sundayschoolforsinners.blogspot.com)
6:08 am
Maureen Dowd’s Favorite Magazine
I’ve wondered for years how the Left could idolize despots: the likes of Saddam, Hugo, and Mahmoud. Well, the mystery is finally solved as I happened to stumble across this magazine. It may be published by the Sulzberger family (though I’m not sure …
12:58 pm
[...] Right Wing Nuthouse talks about a dull document unable to wake up the President. [...]