If, as expected, John McCain wins a smashing victory tonight and takes an insurmountable lead in delegates, most conservatives will have to face the fact that our influence in Republican party has diminished significantly and that a re-assessment of our relationship with the party is in order. I daresay the most immediate fallout – and most superficial – will be a reduction in donations to the party from conservatives as well as fewer volunteers to fill out the staffs of Republican campaigns.
I realize this kind of talk drives some conservatives who support McCain batty. My good friend Pat Curley left this comment on my post from yesterday where I speculated that McCain would freeze out conservatives from his administration:
Why do you think that McCain will give the deep freeze to conservatives in the cabinet? He may not have a whole lot of support from the electronic conservatives, but he’s got plenty of support from conservatives in the Senate and among the governors.
I agree with Ray Coppola; McCain’s win reflects realism on the part of the party. McCain is the most conservative candidate who can win. This is not shaping up as a good year for the GOP, and those who ignore that are just begging for a fiasco like 1964.
And you know, it would help if the people griping that McCain’s not conservative enough actually had a pony in the race. The idea that Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney is a “real†conservative and John McCain is not is ludicrous. If you really wanted a rock-ribbed con, why didn’t people support, oh, Sam Brownback? Because he wasn’t going to win?
I think I’ll let Bill Quick answer Pat here because he says it better than I ever could:
Do not be fooled. What you are witnessing today is a war for the soul, if it can be said to have one, of the Republican party. One one side is the GOP machine establishment – represented by the Bushes, the Roves, and all the family and political dynasty politicians and their strategists who have tried to keep control of the party over the years.On the other side are those whom the establishment regards as the barbarians at the gates: the rabble who listen to the conservative talk shows, the talker hosts themselves, the “Reagan Republicans,†the Gingrich revolutionaries, and now the bloggers and their readers.
This is, in a nutshell, a war between those who value principle over power, and those for whom power is first, foremost, and nearly everything.
Pat, God bless him, is willing to sacrifice at least some of his principles in order to support a candidate who feels has the best chance of winning in November. Unlike Bill, I see nothing wrong with political practicality when employed in a judicious and rational manner. Pat mentioned that many of us supported Fred Thompson and wondered why not Sam Brownback. It’s a good question and I would answer it by saying that Brownback was not ever a serious candidate for president or even for the nomination. His was a vanity run or perhaps a bid for the Veep spot. But anyone who considered him presidential material should have their head examined.
Thompson on the other hand was an extremely serious man who sought to revitalize the Reagan coalition. Unfortunately, he was not the man to do so or perhaps time had passed him by on that the very idea and no one could have accomplished the feat.
But McCain’s candidacy is successful largely because he is running as the anti-conservative, anti-Republican. “Maverick” is more than just a cutesy media term for his political actions. It is the core of his belief system. This is a politician who has not relied on the party structure for advancing his notoriety and elevating his profile but rather the small group of reporters and media outlets with a national reach. Because of that, he is literally forced by circumstances to play up his “independence” while sticking it to conservatives and party members.
This is why McCain will freeze conservatives out of the cabinet – or at least the major cabinet positions. If he would dare appoint a conservative Secretary of State, the media would be on him mercilessly for what they would consider “backsliding” or playing the same old party games. He has created a personae that is based on criticizing and marginalizing the Republican party. How can he suddenly switch and defend the party against what is sure to be the rabid onslaughts of the left if he were to win in November?
The Republican establishment support for McCain is a mile wide and an inch deep. I doubt whether they would stick with him as most have stuck with Bush for eight years. And when he gets in trouble – as all presidents eventually do – McCain may find himself out on a very long limb with many hands eagerly holding saws ready to cut him loose and fed to the dogs.
The conservatives who support McCain have a right to be upset with those who have threatened all sorts of havoc if McCain is the nominee. But they should also heed the warnings of those who have opposed McCain on principle. This is a man who has demonstrated not once, not twice, but many times that he values media affection over principle or party. In that sense, I trust him even less than I trust Romney whose “conversion” to conservatism is so transparent as to be laughable at times.
A McCain candidacy will probably end up a loss anyway. The enthusiasm of Democrats for their candidates is beyond anything I’ve seen in my 30 years of politics. Even the 1980 boom for Reagan was fraught with angst and uncertainty on the part of the George Bush wing of the party – the establishmentarians who still view the bulk of us “barbarians” as less than equal. But for any Republican running today, it would be a long, uphill climb to win in November.
More than likely, McCain’s victory tonight means the beginnings of a strategic retreat by conservatives – a long march into the wilderness hopefully to emerge in a few years invigorated and strengthened so that our influence will once again count for something.
6:14 pm
Unless Billary wins the nomination. I foresee a whole lot of expedient Republican voting simply to keep her out of office.
I myself would vote for Ghidra the Three-Headed Monster before accepting the specter of at least another four more years of a Clinton Blight House.
6:27 pm
The truth is that a presidency of a McCain, Obama or Hillary will be a unmitigated disaster. There is nothing at this point, besides a Romney miracle that we as conservatives can do about it.
Under any of these thre guys,there likely will be be:
• A nuclear Iran
• Possibly another terrorist strike on American Soil; definitely greater and more empowered Islamofascist terrorism.
• Much higher oil prices, more than double our inflated prices now.
• A collapsing dollar
• Higher taxes, lapsing of the 2003 cuts, new increases on the way including a 50 cent a gallon carbon tax.
• Some form of Universal Health Care
• Much greater environmental regulations – more than sufficient to strangle the economy.
• Some form of confiscation of oil, pharmaceutical and insurance industry profits.
• And as a result of all of the above – a massive recession.
Now do we as conservatives want to be apart of all the above? I don’t think so. And we can’t stop it even if we wanted too- which we do.
McCain cannot and will not win. The media will turn on him and absolutely destroy him as soon as he clinches the nomination. All of a sudden we will see stories of the Keating 5, McCain tirades, stuff on his age, his intolerance, his dumb, pandering poorly thought out positions, etc, etc, etc. His squishy moderate and independent support will vanish in a heartbeat. And he will not have Talk Radio or the Blogs wathcing his back to defend him. It will be ugly.
The really sad part is that not only will the conservative base not volunteer for him, nor donate; they probably won’t turn out on election day dooming a lot of good Republicans. The next Democrat President as a result, probably will have his or her way with Congress for at least the next two years.
McCain will thus become the biggest loser in modern political presidential history. It will be a complete wipeout. The Republican Party will wish he did as well as Dole or Ford.
The only positive thing I can say is that the end of the long march into the wilderness, after the carnage of the next Democrat in the White House, hopefully will be only two years away – until the 2010 Congressional elections. The US will then really need the conservatives to put the Country back togather again.
8:24 pm
McCain treats most all conservatives like most conservatives treat social conservatives. And everyone wondered why social cons were getting frustrated and angry just a month ago. Welcome to our world.
By the time moderates discover the damage they have done, (assuming McCain wins) it will be too late. McCain will destroy party credibility on a range of issues getting the Republican party tossed out of power for years.
9:16 pm
The parallels between 1932 and 2008 are not trifling.
Hoover won the nomination with 98% of the delegates, but it would be nearly 20 years before republicans regained the WH and 60 years before the House was regained.
Start rebuilding now, all ye of conservative hope.
9:58 am
I’m not sacrificing principles here. I agree with McCain on the biggest issue that most of the conservatives are bashing him over, immigration. Campaign finance reform? Who really votes based on that issue? Torture? I disagree with him, but I hope we both agree that he has more standing on that issue, having endured it himself. Gang of 14? I was an original member of the coalition of the chillin’, and if Hillbama wins the presidency we will be awfully glad to have the filibuster for judicial nominations. Yes, I disagree with him on drilling in ANWR, and (to a degree) on global warming. But that’s way down on my list of priorities.
But Quick’s comment is the really absurd one here. “Barbarians at the Gates”? Isn’t that the title of Kos’ book? Does any of us actually believe that Kos’ crew should be running the Democratic party? I mean, it would be wonderful for the GOP, but nobody thinks it would be great for the Democrats.
But somehow when it’s the Righty Blogosphere it’s different? Hey, I used to believe that, but that belief is being sorely tested by the tantrums going on for the last several weeks by the electronic wing. I mean, Rush is telling people that Obama would be just as good on Iraq as McCain. How delusional is that?
12:06 pm
Be calm, Sour-Grapes Conservatives. Your first choice(s) are out of contention; now you have to decide whether you want a lot of the Parade of Horribles trotted out by Paul Ramsey in comment #2, or only a little bit of it. It simply wouldn’t be as bad as you’re predicting under a McCain Administration. I’m not saying McCain is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative; I’m saying he wouldn’t be nearly as bad as either of the Democrats.
McCain isn’t a tax-cutter, it’s true. He’s a budget hawk. Is the idea of a balanced budget really such an awful thing that the GOP can’t get behind it? McCain doesn’t think that either bald eagles or illegal immigrants should be hunted for sport, but that doesn’t mean that he would either open the borders or tear down our industries. McCain is a hawk on the Iraq war, terrorism, and keeping Iran non-nuclear and under control.
No, he’s not my first choice, either. That happens in politics sometimes. But I’ll vote for him because he’s the best available choice.
4:50 pm
I’ve got to go along with the transplanted lawyer on this. Go with the hand we were given.