If I were a gambling man – and believe me when I tell you that I would place a bet on the outcome of a tiddlywinks match – I would put McCain’s odds of winning the presidency at 5-1. My good friend Rich Baehr at American Thinker gives McCain a one in three chance of pulling it out but that may be a tad optimistic.
The London line has it Obama a prohibitive 2-7 favorite with McCain’s odds at 5-2. Clearly, the pros are skeptical about McCain’s chances given all the factors at work today.
But oddsmakers only deal with the here and now and with probabilities for the future. McCain could have a true senior moment (moreso than he has already demonstrated) and disappear from contention. Meanwhile, Obama might commit a faux pas so serious that even his slavering devotees in the press would have to report it. Granted, the incident would have to be monumental – like some enterprising reporter discovering Obama begging the Maoist New Party for their endorsement in his 1996 state senate race while accepting volunteers from the radical communist group – but it could happen nonetheless.
The odds of McCain self destructing are probably greater than Obama’s which is another reason he is such a strong favorite.
The only other chance I believe McCain has is to change the dynamics of the race at a fundamental level. Right now, Obama has all the advantages. The issues that matter most to the American people – the economy, health care, Iraq – are either playing into his hands or, as with the war in Iraq, he has been able to manipulate his position to appear out in front of the situation. Bush, McCain, and Petreaus may all disagree with the idea of a 16 month timeline for withdrawal but enough dust has been kicked up by Maliki and Obama himself so as to obscure the candidate’s flips and flops on the war. That’s just the way it is and bitching about it won’t change the fundamental fact that Obama is going to get a pass on Iraq and perhaps even receive a boost if his slaves in the media get their way.
McCain will do no better with the economy (a general issue that speaks more to the voter’s comfort level with their personal financial situation) and health insurance where people appear to favor more government intervention.
But McCain has a couple of ace issues that are in play and that the American people are much closer to his ideas than Obama. I’m talking about gas prices and anti-preference referendums that are on a couple of ballots this fall but something McCain could turn into a national issue.
McCain’s embrace of his home state’s anti-discrimination referendum is being called a flip flop and rightly so. In the past, McCain has opposed these ballot measures, calling them “divisive.” But with voters all over the country overwhelmingly in favor of repealing these preferences in hiring, academics, and the letting of contracts, McCain would do well to embrace these referendums where ever they are on the ballot.
In addition to Arizona, Colorado and Nebraska will also have the civil rights measures on the ballot. There is also a chance that a couple of other states might have referendum to vote on if organizers can gather enough signatures and work their way through the gauntlet of challenges being made by liberals. If McCain were to fully support these measures, it could be as important to his chances in some states as the anti-gay marriage referendums were to Bush’s victory in 2004. The important thing is that these civil rights measures have won and won big everywhere the voters have been given an opportunity ot vote on them.
It would make for a nice little wedge issue for McCain if he could tie his efforts in with some popular ballot initiative like the anti-discrimination laws. Given the majorities they have passed in other states, identifying his campaign with scrapping quotas and other preferential criteria might tip the balance in his favor on election day.
The other issue that is in play in which McCain has a huge advantage is the oil drilling issue which translates directly into voter anger over gas prices. My personal belief is that the blame for our current situation has many fathers on the Hill and in the White House from both parties. We were given the gift of 35 years to solve our energy dependence problem and fumbled the ball miserably. Both parties muffed the chance and here we are, 35 years after the Arab oil embargo exposed our vulnerability to foreigners with regards to our energy supply still promising to do something about it.
In the intervening years, our foreign policy has been held hostage by these desert potentates . And we’ve accepted it because it meant that gas would stay cheap. Well, now we have our foreign policy still being held hostage and gas is $4 a gallon, nearly doubling in the last year. Democracies may not do well at long term planning but we’re geniuses when the wolf is at the door howling to get in. Now that we have no choice, I am supremely confident we are going to lick our energy problem – and a helluva lot faster than Obama and the left can possibly imagine.
There are many things we have to do in order to get our energy house in order; build nuclear power plants, increase our use of “alternative” energy sources like solar and wind (no, alternative energy will not come anywhere close to ever – ever solving our energy needs but increasing their use is still a good idea), self-imposed fuel savings such as we’ve already seen with the huge drop off in driving compared to last year, and manufacturing energy efficient cars and appliances.
I am unconvinced that government mandating such efficiencies is any better than letting the market do so. If auto makers want to go bust, let them keep building SUV’s and if people want to go broke filling the tanks of those behemoths, let them. However, I give a little more credit to the intelligence of the American auto maker and consumer. The price of gas and other fuels will be the primary determinant of how great the impetus toward energy efficiency will eventually be realized.
But we can also drill. And drill. And then drill some more. And when we’re done with that, just for good measure we can drill there too. No one is saying we can become totally independent of foreign fuel sources by drilling offshore, in North Dakota, or in the west where we have tens of billions of barrels of oil locked up in shale. But reducing our dependence would be a nice goal and if in the near future we could import 25% less than we are now because we are tapping our own sources of oil, it would go a long way toward reducing the price of gas at the pump. It would dampen speculation by stabilizing the supply while bulking up our inventories which would also have a calming effect on the market.
Here is where McCain can hit a home run. And Obama would be left out on the mound watching as McCain ran rings around him. By large majorities the American people want us to start drilling and start drilling now. Politicians who get in the way of that sentiment do so at their own risk.
Obama is trapped by his environmental left into basically saying “Prices are high. Shut up and learn to live with it.” He may make a few tentative steps toward nuclear power generation but here again, McCain can run him ragged by boldly embracing a program to build as many nuke plants as can safely be built in the shortest amount of time.
At almost every turn, McCain has the advantage on this issue and he should be constantly pushing for drilling responsibly but on a large scale and as quickly as possible. He should also open government lands to the drill bit.
Now it is true that McCain has been pushing the drilling angle but he has been doing it in a half assed manner, almost as if he is apologetic about it. The problem, of course, is that he has left himself open to charges of hypocrisy because of his global warming position which is decidedly against any additional oil coming to market. The two issues are not incompatible. There are still ways to reduce carbon emissions while drilling for all the oil we can handle.
But the entire drilling issue is symptomatic of what is wrong with McCain’s campaign. Listless, directionless, and only recently has any semblance of organization begun to be seen. He isn’t going to win by playing it safe. He has got to take chances, be bolder in his policy proposals. And standing up for drilling offshore and anywhere else that a realistic field can be tapped would be a good first step.
These two issues can redefne the race if McCain has it in him to embrace what they represent; the core concerns and values of his natural constituency. If elections are about getting more of your people to the polls than the other guy can get his people to the polls, McCain better start thinking about what will motivate his voters to get out of their easy chairs on election day and cast their ballot for him. Otherwise, he is going to get slaughtered.
6:33 pm
“Listless, directionless, and only recently has any semblance of organization begun to be seen.”
Now those are the qualities you want in a potential leader.
12:19 am
The two popular stances in contention are energy yes but the other is no to any form of amnesty to illegal aliens,both have popular support among the electorate and little and zero advocacy or prominence in the Presidential race.McCain would never gain us anti-illegal alien amnesty advocates with an insincere flip flop but Obama would with a major and whole hearted speech aimed squarely at denial of any benefits to illegals and a serious effort at ending the flood of third worlders and immediate tough enforcement aimed at their removal.
12:53 am
“...Obama is going to get a pass on Iraq and perhaps even receive a boost if his slaves in the media get their way.”
What are your thoughts on this: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,712999.story
2:28 am
You may want to invoke Larry your Brother on this.
4:51 am
Rick
The blogs are starting to go into a slow burn over the possibility that the Western Wall prayer by Obama was a setup by his campaign.
If that proves out to be correct there will be no way for him to cover that somebody on his staff had the content of his prayer to shuffle it off to the press.
It will simply blow the wheels right off the bus and there will be no end to the blow back.
6:03 am
Guess I have to admit I agree with you Rick.
Just hope Prez Obama doesn’t take us too far down that socialist road and God help us is we have another terror attack.
7:32 am
Rick, I know you are not a big Gingrich fan, but his platform for the American people is hugely popular with Americans of all demographics. If McCain adopted and pushed this platform, even with the media bias, I think he would annihilate Obama in the general. This platform includes English as the official language, increase energy supplies (one of your suggestions), single rate tax system, deportation of felony illegal immigrants, etc. Although the anti-quota legislation did not make the top 10, it should have, because it is also hugely popular amongst whites in general, and white males in particular. The other issue that did not make the top 10 is gun control- 65 million gun owners don’t want the next SCOTUS to swing the balance of the court, and this angle should be pressed, highlighted, and demogogued in basic Democrat style.
I am not convinced that Obama is the shoo-in that everybody else seems to believe. I think that this new age of information access, especially email forwards, has for the first time informed the normally ignorant masses of the nature of this charlatan.
7:38 am
SlimGuy (comment 5)- the night that story broke, I told my wife that I would bet a paycheck that it was a setup by the Obama campaign. Since she already gets my paycheck, I wish the bet had been for sex.
11:41 am
Coulda, soulda, woulda. Beating Obonga is fairly simple, but not with this nag.
As simple as it is to already envision McCains concession speech (my good friend Barrak….working together…) it is impossible to imagine McCain becoming an advocate for liberty and American entrepreneurship. He is the product of the rotting wreck of an ego and neoconservative manipulation, nothing more.
2:12 pm
What is aggrevating here is that McCain has an easy path to victory.
Here is a post I did a week ago over at slate:
“1. Nominate Sarah Palin as VP. Makes the ticket younger, much more attractive, and more attractive to women. Also boxes in Obama. He either takes a woman and looks “me too” or takes a man and further reinforces the perception that his is chauvinist.
“2. Unleash Palin to talk oil and gas. She is good at it, and she believes it, just like McCain believes in the war on terror.
“3. Gas prices ARE the path to success for McCain, he just doesn’t need to be personally blaming Obama for them. The democrats over the past 15 years will do just fine.
“This is a pocketbook election and, Americans are very wary to candidate’s claims of their ability to “fix” the economy, as well they should be. But, gas prices are, to a not insignificant extent, affected by governmental policy on drilling. McCain-Palin can point to steps such as drilling in ANWAR, uncapping the offshore oil wells, and doing new drilling and say “well, first we will have a speculation premium of $X a barrell removed, which will mean $Y amount off at the pump which will result in $Z more money in the average American’s pocket book over the next year. Then the oil from the uncapped rigs will come on and give us A more barrells of oil, which will then result in…” and so on. That is a lot more tangible than saying “I’m going to increase your pay and keep good jobs here in America.” The workers have been hearing that since the late 70s. I think they’re done believing it. America will take the bird in the hand.
“And, this is an issue that Obama is helpless on. He can’t promote drilling without pi$$ing offf the environmentalist crowd, all he can offer is magic beans about mysterious fuels that will suddenly be invented, be commercial ready, and be infrastructure ready before Exxon can drop a hole in the artic, or remove a well cover 10 miles off of the coast of California.
“4. Lastly, McCain needs to explain why we are going to have to continue to prosecute the war on terror, and why it is important. No unbiased observers really feel that Obama is serious about fighting terror (look at his website and find evidence he is – he found room for “faith” and “disabilities” but not for “war on terror” or “Afghanistan”, and his comments on Iraq were about how to get out quickly). But, that isn’t good enough – McCain has to explain WHY Americans should care.
“If he can do these things, he will win. Obama is a very weak opponent, despite the entire media being in the bag for him. Obama should have a 20 point lead right now, instead he is barely ahead (if at all).”
Now, we add a fifth point about running against affirmative action, that puts the campaign squarely on what should be McCain turf.
3:29 pm
Here’s one Obama problem that hasn’t gotten enarly the mileage it should have yet…
Obama advisor Richard Danzig claimed that Winnie the Pooh would be a good model for U.S. Foreign Policy and national Security. “Richard Danzig, who served as Navy Secretary under President Clinton and is tipped to become National Security Adviser in an Obama White House, told a major foreign policy conference in Washington that the future of US strategy in the war on terrorism should follow a lesson from the pages of Winnie the Pooh, which can be shortened to: if it is causing you too much pain, try something else. Mr Danzig told the Centre for New American Security: “Winnie the Pooh seems to me to be a fundamental text on national security.”
It was covered in the U.K Press, but nowhere to be seen in the Antique Media. I wonder why? Could it be that it is so ridiculous that it would make the Obamessiah’s Foreign Policy look like a complete and utter joke? Check out the article and decide for yourself if you think having Winnie the Pooh foreign policy is, or isn’t a monumental gaffe. Check this out: “Winnie the Pooh, Luke Skywalker and British football hooligans could shape the foreign policy of Barack Obama if he becomes US President, according to a key adviser.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2139573/Barack-Obama-aide-Why-Winnie-the-Pooh-should-shape-US-foreign-policy.html. Or, just Google “winnie the pooh foreign policy obama. ROTFLMAO
For a fairly complete list of Obama’s gaffes go to: http://jraymondwright.blogspot.com
4:46 pm
McCain barely has a prayer. No one gives a damn about affirmative action. And the drilling thing is a sideshow. It’s not nothing, but it is a second tier issue.
It’s going to be an “economy stupid” election. And on that issue McCain really is just another doctrinaire Republican.
McCain is a guy with nearly 100% name recognition who can’t break 45%. And his campaign is apparently being run as a sort of extended Borat routine.
9:32 pm
Just some thoughts
1, The cheap easy to pump and easy to refine oil has already been found. The offshore and Arctic oil is more costly to drill and pump Tar sand and shale oil extraction is even more expensive, but there is a vast supply. Bottom line is that gas prices go up because refining and extraction costs are up
2, Oil is a world commodity, even if we find more in the US that does not necessarily mean we get a special deal on price. The booming Asian economies are demanding more oil, even if you can extract more oil the demand keeps up with supply. The total oil reserves offshore are a drop in the bucket if you consider world demand. Prices might stagnate at best, or rise at a more gradual rate as tar sand and other sources come on line.
Liberals and Conservatives can scream and yell and call each other Hitler all they want but the whole situation is basic economics, not politics.
Enough thinking, back to name calling!
10:59 pm
Name recognition is only good if it is branded well,McCain chose to irrevocably tie his name to the worst affront to the constitution by the Congress in my lifetime with McCain-Feingold.McCain chose to be an advocate for illegal aliens with no regard for the devastatin they have done to our Hospitals, Schools, Court system, National Forests, pedophiles/ rapists/ murderers/ thieves that mix with the tide of aliens at our borders, coverage they give to gangs & drug smugglers and diseases they introduce into our society.Yeah he has name recognition.
4:20 am
So what you’re suggesting is copy Bush’s bigotry message- no one has ever explained how gays marrying hurts anything- and squeeze every last drop of oil to avoid doing now what we should have done 35 years ago- a message basically laid out by Jimmy Carter in his much maligned “malaise speech.” Affirmative Action may indeed be ready to be set aside only because the attitudes and reality of america today are (I’m being optimistic here)different than they were when it was implemented. What I’m saying is that it worked, despite the obvious problems with it and Obama actually being the Dems’ candidate makes a good argument for this being true. But despite the fact that the message sent by AA is against the notion of everyone being equal and therefore against what everybody wants to believe is a core american value, repealing it also caters to the bigotry and racism that is also an american (but diminishing?)reality. Combine this with economic problems in millions of households and you get fear of those below you. Fear and bigotry do equal votes, so nice touch. You’re intelligent enough to know that I’m not calling you a bigot? And drilling. Sorry but americans do pay far too little for gasoline and are spoiled. How many billions of miles weren’t driven since gas went up? People will always seek the path of least resistance and given a reprieve, americans will continue on their wasteful ways. Why can’t alternative energy sources work? You have no faith in the american inventor, thinker or worker? Americans can be sold anything (see Bush’s 2nd term) and if there was a national push- Madison Ave, business, government, universities, unions (that was a joke, what unions?) what couldn’t be accomplished? Oil is the past and ? is the future. The debate over global warming may be contested but if it’s true, what future? If it’s not, oil will run out eventually so why not get ahead of the curve now? Bush claimed that america can’t afford Kyoto ( a flawed piece of work) but can we afford to pay for the deterioration of health, environment, foreign policy, and a myriad of other issues caused by our insane use of the private automobile? Detroit got america rushing into suvs at exactly the wrong time and now China comes along and needs oil too. So give it to them and let’s watch what happens to them in 40 years. It’s (past)time for a radical transformation of how america powers itself and drilling will only deprive us of the Mother of Invention. Getting someone in the WH to actually do this is another problem but McCain’s “tax holiday” shows exactly who shouldn’t be there.
5:28 am
Weds. morning links…
Good news: Ten things to be happy about – from the NYT!Can’t read or write, but will know how to put on a condom.What Iran plans for the USA.Lying about the federal debt. Am ThinkerFat? Blame it on your neighborhood. Not your fault.Bush’s remarkable…
7:29 am
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