Put yourself in Iran’s place.
Every day, you read how nutty George Bush is, how he’s now got a “messianic complex,” how he believes the end times are here and the rapture at hand, and what a bloodthirsty war monger the President of the United States truly is.
Then Sy Hersh delivers a bombshell of a report saying that this crazy crusader is actually thinking of detonating a nuclear device on your sovereign territory. You put two and two together and come up with…a little bluff of your own:
Iran on Sunday brushed aside what it called a U.S. “psychological war” against its nuclear program after a published report described Pentagon planning for possible military strikes against Iranian atomic facilities. A report by influential investigative journalist Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker magazine, citing unnamed current and former officials, said Washington has stepped up plans for possible attacks on Iranian facilities to curb its atomic work.The article said the United States was considering using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy Iran’s underground uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, south of Tehran.
“This is a psychological war launched by Americans because they feel angry and desperate regarding Iran’s nuclear dossier,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told a weekly news conference.
“We will stand by our right to nuclear technology. It is our red line. We are ready to deal with any possible scenario. Iran is not afraid of threatening language,” he added.
That last bit is a little bluff of their own. If we decided to strike – conventional or nuclear – there isn’t much the Iranians could do to stop us and they know it. So the “scenario” involving severe degradation of their nuclear program is one that they are not only unprepared for but fear the most. And as far as them not being afraid of threatening language, I daresay the lights were burning late in the Defense Ministry last night in Tehran.
Some Middle Eastern analysts see a little triangular diplomacy among China, Russia, and the US as a way to stop the Iranian nuke program. Their reasoning goes thusly:
As much as China and Russia engage in the diplomatic maneuvers to pressure Iran, they are not expected to toe the U.S. party line. Their own respective great power agendas play a silent, but potent role in their maneuvers involving Iran. Russia is getting increasingly frustrated about the U.S. “crowding” the immediate neighborhood. Russian President Vladimir Putin bristled at the criticism that the recent elections in Belarus were rigged, simply because they did not bring about the breakup of ties between Russia and what the Western media derisively depict as “the last dictatorship in Europe.” Russia also remains on the defensive about the proposition from the West that it is backing away from democracy. U.S.-Russian competition in Central Asia has become rather nasty.China is equally annoyed at the Bush administration’s intermittent depiction of it as competitor or even as a “potential adversary.” Beijing was displeased by reports that the recently signed U.S.-India nuclear deal was also aimed at “containing” China.
In view of these conflicting agendas, both Russia and China envision their ties with the U.S. as becoming increasingly competitive. Consequently, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program emerges as an issue where the two countries have ample maneuvering space to extract a “grand bargain” with Washington regarding issues that are of great strategic significance to each of them.
China especially might see pulling American chestnuts out of the fire as just the leverage it needs to get concessions on regional issues, perhaps even on Taiwan if we get worried enough about Iranian nukes. And Putin, lowering the iron fist ever so slowly on his people, could see helping to get an agreement on Iranian nukes as a way to get those pesky American human rights and democracy advocates off of his back.
All of this depends, of course, on America not taking pre-emptive and early action against the Iranian nuclear sites. While the temptation to do so might be great, whatever we give up with regards to Russia and China may look like a great deal if we can avoid the consequences of bombing Iran. In that respect, diplomacy still looks like the best bet – especially since we have at least 3 years and perhaps as long as 5 before Iran presents us with their little nuclear fait accompli.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and their flighty, on-again-off-again chief Mohamed ElBaradei will be paying a visit to the Iranians this week to try and get inspections going again. What good they can do at this point may be ephemeral in that the Iranians have been able to conceal most of their program from the prying eyes of the IAEA, probably developing a so-called “two track” program that includes a civilian component that is relatively open and a military one that is clandestine.
As long as we can keep the Iranians guessing about our response, the more cautious and off balance they will be. That can only bode well for any negotiations that are sure to be initiated after the UN meets at the end of this month to once again discuss sanctions against Iran.
8:24 pm
Send a satelite picture of the Tehran of today and one of Japan 1945 as an example (positive proof of what has/can and will be done) of the Tehran of the future. I’ll push one of the buttons and know several that will push the second.
10:50 pm
It seems that bluff, counterbluff is coming to an end. The only problem is that Iran does not see the end game. I have no doubt that the US will prevent Iran from obtaining the bomb and much to their surprise, they will lose all.
This group of iatolahs will find out the hard way the Bush will not back down…but what the heck, so did Iraq. I foresee a preemptive attack with possible help from Israel.
This may not be an ideal situation, but no other is acceptable – ie. Iran with the bomb.
12:18 am
Nice article Rick. In negotiations of this type, everything has to be on the table from the US side. Otherwise you have a Carter/Clinton approach. That did us a lot of good in North Korea.
6:56 am
Kerry Blasts Bush’s “Cowboy Diplomacy” Urges “Brokeback Option” With Iran
While making an appearance on Meet The Press this past weekend, Senator John Kerry took the opportunity to blast President Bush for his refusal to take the nuclear option off of the table with regards to dealing with Iran’s increasingly
8:32 am
It’s déjà vu all over again: following the “success†of their Iraqi ventures, the Neocon Neros of Washington are now toying with the idea of expanding their flourishing business eastward into the highly promising Persian market.
Frankly, I wonder what they’ve been smoking lately…And I can’t conceptualize the fact that George Bush’s followers still believe the Pentagon-produced infomercials showing complacent cum generously breasted Baghdad girls throwing rosewater, lukums and champagne at our troops on Apr 9, 2003! … How on earth can’t they see Teheran’s mullahs were the only winners here?
As for the Neocon’s belated anti-Persian posturing, it should be taken for what it is: just another hollow gesticulation from a lame-duck administration trying desperately to re-equilibrate the Arab/Iranian geopolitical balance that it had deliberately destroyed in the first place!
And those ungrateful Ayyranians should be mighty satisfied and thankful for el Chimpresidente nukular supreme de la White Casa knocked their secular archenemy for them and handed them (via their SCIRI cum Da’awa party Islamist stooges) two thirds of Iraq on a silver plate!
Plus the Persians got all that for free: future generations of infidel American taxpayers will generously pick the estimated 2 trillion dollars tab- George W’s contribution to the Koranic jurisprudential concept of “Jiziyahâ€â€¦
As a seasoned Sassanid sophist might have said: With foes like these, who needs friends?
6:42 pm
I don’t see what the big deal is. Of course we have plans to attack Iran. The military’s job is to be ready for action if the President says so. In order to do so, we pre-plan many aspects in anticipation of possible combat. I can tell you we’ve had many different war-plans for Iran since 1979. This is not new, or surprising, or shocking. It’s one of the military’s jobs.
On the other side, does anyone think the Iranians don’t have plans for attacking US carriers in the Arabian Gulf, or shutting the straits of Hormuz, or militarily reclaiming disputed Islands in the Gulf, or any number of other scenarios. Every country in the world does this. The only difference here is that some of the details of the planning were leaked. And even that doesn’t mean much, because final plans are always changed from preliminary planning to account for the current strategic, tactical and political situation.
To me, as one in the service who has done some of this kind of planning in the past, this is really much ado about nothing.
2:11 am
Submitted for Your Approval
First off… any spambots reading this should immediately go here, here, here, and here. Die spambots, die! And now… here are all the links submitted by members of the Watcher’s Council for this week’s vote. Council li…
8:55 am
Eye on the Watcher’s Council
As you may know the members of the Watcher’s Council each nominate one of his or her own posts and one non-Council post for consideration by the whole Council. The complete list of this week’s Council nominations is here. Here’s wha…
8:55 am
Eye on the Watcher’s Council
As you may know the members of the Watcher’s Council each nominate one of his or her own posts and one non-Council post for consideration by the whole Council. The complete list of this week’s Council nominations is here. Here’s wha…
8:55 am
Eye on the Watcher’s Council
As you may know the members of the Watcher’s Council each nominate one of his or her own posts and one non-Council post for consideration by the whole Council. The complete list of this week’s Council nominations is here. Here’s wha…
2:08 am
The Council Has Spoken!
First off… any spambots reading this should immediately go here, here, here, and here. Die spambots, die! And now… the winning entries in the Watcher’s Council vote for this week are No Relation to Reality, Indeed by …