I am not a believer in conspiracies as a general rule.
First of all, they are extraordinarily difficult to prove. Secondly, I tend to follow Occam’s Razor which in essence states “”When you have two competing theories which make exactly the same predictions, the one that is simpler is the better.” Ergo, is it easier to believe a conspiracy of massive proportions in the Kennedy Assassination or that a lone paranoid (not insane) with a gun shot the President of the United States in the back of the head to get attention? Or, is it easier to believe that the President of the United States went to war to enrich his friends in the oil industry and at Haliburton or for reasons having to do with the safety and security of the US?
Just because Haliburton or the oil companies benefited by the United States going to war does not mean that there was a conspiracy to enrich them. All things being equal (or in this case, incredibly unequal), the simplest explanation should rule.
The reason I bring this up is because “conspiracy fever” has begun to take hold on righty blogs and forums regarding the McCarthy story. Not taking anyone specifically to task over this kind of speculation, I feel it important that we not start to degenerate into what the lefties have done with anything and everything about the Bush Administration.
We’re all familiar with their cockamamie conspiracies regarding Plame, the War, WMD, and God knows what else that spouts and spews from their overactive and childish imaginations. And while there are solid investigations and intelligent speculation being done by bloggers like AJ Strata and Spook86 who is ex-military intelligence, the bulk of speculation that I’ve seen on most blogs has approached the surreal.
Most connections being made may, in fact, be entirely innocent or coincidental. Just because McCarthy was hired by Berger does not necessarily make her 1) a “crony” or 2) part of a network of leakers who worked for the Democrats. As AJ Strata points out, that connection certainly bears looking into but beyond that, all we have is the fact they worked together.
A similar argument could be made regarding the very interesting speculation surrounding a possible connection between McCarthy and Joe Wilson as well as another thread that may run to Valerie Plame. This one is very, very tantalizing but once again, a simpler explanation would point to no conspiracy but rather a simple acquaintanceship between Wilson and McCarthy. Much more evidence would have to be revealed including some proof that the two (or three) have had contact in the last few years.
The point? It is much easier to believe McCarthy was a disgruntled partisan stuck in a CIA backwater who leaked out of spite:
You’ll note that many media accounts describe the leaker as an “analyst,” suggesting that she was, at best, a mid-level staffer. That was hardly the case; few analysts make the jump from a regional desk at Langley to the White House. A “National Intelligence Officer” is the equivalent of a four-star general in the military, or a cardinal in the Catholic Church. There are only a handful of NIOs in the intelligence community; they are in charge of intelligence community efforts in a particular area. As a senior officer for Warning, Ms. McCarthy was tasked, essentially, with preventing future Pearl Harbors. Observers will note that McCarthy’s tenure in that role coincided with early strikes by Islamofacists against the United States, including the first World Trade Center bombing, and the Khobar Towers attack. It could be argued that Ms. McCarthy’s performance in the warning directorate was mediocre, at best—but it clearly didn’t affect her rise in a Democratic Administration.[...]
Aside from her Democratic Party ties (she apparently wrote a check for $2000 to the Kerry campaign in 2004), I also detect the whiff of sour grapes in her motivation for leaking information to the Post. At the time she talked with reporter Dana Priest, Ms. McCarthy was apparently working in the CIA Inspector General’s Office. The agency, citing the Privacy Act, hasn’t divulged her pay grade or title at the time of her firing, but it seems certain that she was not at the NIO level. After the rarefied air of the Clinton White House, McCarthy had been banished to a relative backwater at Langley, and she was likely upset by the apparent demotion.
That last from Spook86 sounds reasonable and logical. Rather than jump to conclusions, best take a deep breath and examine the information as it trickles out. Then we can start putting pieces of the puzzle together (if indeed there is a puzzle at all) in a rational manner. Otherwise, we look like a bunch of cross-eyed, drooling lefties who see Haliburton behind every tree and Rove underneath every bed.
But then again…it is fun, isn’t it?
12:14 pm
There isn’t a conspiracy in this event. However, there are a number of coincidences that should make people pay attention.
The Pulitzer Prize story was based upon a non-event put out by the CIA to find out who might be leaking. They found one leaker and this might slow down others. The NY Times indicates that the CIA leakers find it unfair that Libby can leak but they can’t.
In this case we found the leaker to be a Dem supporter. This leads us to the Culture of Corruption in the Dem party.
The Times tells us the leaker was well known as being CIA thus putting pressure on the Plame case.
What we must be careful of is the type of intelligence that we are getting. Instead of an independent agency, we have one that may want to play politics over national security. Conspiracy? Nope, just people being people.
1:24 pm
[...] Drumheller though believes the White House should have circumvented the NIE and gone on Sabri’s other statements. Is this a concerted effort by both the CIA and the MSM to hide the whole story and instead focus in on the dissenters within a larger group? Well, we’ve seen the hidden facts countless times before. Also follow Rick Moran’s posts on the dubbed war against the White House. Thus far there are three posts (one, two and three) not including a previous post on McCarthy alone. [...]
1:28 pm
Rick,
Thanks for the respectful and kind words. Means a lot.
Cheers, AJStrata
1:33 pm
[...] Hat Tip Rick Moran at Right Wing Nut House. [...]
1:48 pm
re: the Kennedy thing; if you’ve visited the site (it’s in Dallas, I live not far away in Austin), you’ll see that the sixth floor of the book depository is up and behind the president’s car at the time of the shooting. One bullet may have come from there, but there’s No Doubt – really, by anyone, even non-conspiracy theorists – that the bullet that killed Kennedy came from in front of him and the car . . what sometimes is called the Grassy Knoll but really is just a bridge overpass. Anyway, if you see the Zapruder film, or any film, you see that the back of Kennedy’s head is knocked off, and a piece of his brain flies out onto the trunk, and Jackie reaches back and grabs it (you can see this on the Discovery or History Channel regularly). There’s no way that bullet came from the book depository, where they say Oswald was.
So, there may not have been a huge conspiracy that involved Cuba or the Mafia or Lyndon Johnson, but there definitely was a bullet that hit Kennedy that wasn’t fired from the book depository. It’s on any film.
3:35 pm
I have always been worried about how easy it is to fall into the “vast conspiracy” trap. It is obvious that the Left is in love with such thinking, but I would hope that we Righties/Republicans/Conservatives/etc. would be wary of falling into that trap.
However, the kind of targeted, politically-motivated leaking that we have seen with regards to Ms. McCarthy seems to be mostly typical of lefties, in general. I do not think that it is some kind of “conspiracy.” Instead, it seems that this is considered in Leftist meta-philosophy to be an acceptable way to sabotage the other side. Thus, it is acceptable for her to leak this information; it is acceptable for ex-Ambassador Wilson to lie about his role and findings in the Nigerian yellowcake scenario; it is acceptable for the MSM to publish opinion pieces that are labelled as news, and so on; because it is all in services of a “greater good,” a sort of perverse Machiavellianism. Of course, there is no clear purpose for all of their maneuvering except the acquisition of power for themselves and their Leftist allies.
3:55 pm
Occam’s Razor does not always apply. Sometimes there is more than one explanation for things, and more than one cause. The President may have gone to war in Iraq both for security reasons AND because it would enrich his friends at Halliburton. (I’m not saying either one is necessarily true.)
4:08 pm
I concur.
While this is just one data point in the big scan, it does seem to reveal a very interesting trendline that deserves more close monitoring. I must admit that I’m having trouble resisting the pull of the “Grand Unified Theory” that the McCarthy case is making in regards to leakage from the CIA, and leftist conspiracy therein.
6:10 pm
Frank,
I feel the pull of the “Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy” theory as well, but it is worth resisting. If we subscribe to that idea, besides proving ourselves as nutty as the Sheehan-esque moonbats, we drop blinkers and faulty filters over our eyes.
6:48 pm
CIA leak story grows
By the time I booted up the computer this morning, so much good work had already been done on this expanding CIA leak arrest story that I think I'll just do some linking and quoting. First, Ace, who shares my cynicism, notes how the mainstream mes…
8:50 pm
Looks like a momentum-shifter for the GOP, which now make actually pick up seats in November. Expect the misdeeds to unravel very, very slowly, however, right up into October. Karl Rove, just like a good basketball coach, knows all about momentum swings. Dems seem not to, since they’ve been beating the hell out of their drums the last several months (months before the elections). Some political movements just no sense of timing.
9:00 pm
Ministry Of CIA Mole Links
You may have heard that a CIA analyst was identified as the leaker of classified information to Dana Priest of the Washington Post, information that dealt with secret CIA prisons in Europe that probably don’t exist. I’ve been working today,
9:19 pm
http://www.channel4.com/history/microsites/H/history/t-z/tendays.html
The longer the wait, Eisenhower knew, the greater the chance of the secret leaking out. With 2.5 million men poised for action, it could hardly be otherwise. To ensure that everyone got the message, he stamped down hard on any leaks.
One of the most spectacular involved Major General Henry Miller, chief supply officer of the US 9th Air Force. During a cocktail party at Claridge’s, Miller had talked freely about his supply problems, but had added that these would be over after D-Day, which would come, he revealed, before 15 June. The instant Eisenhower was told, he had Miller reduced to the rank of colonel and sent him back to the States. Miller’s desperate plea to his old West Point classmate against the punishment proved useless: Eisenhower’s broad smile masked a man of iron.
12:29 am
There is an even simpler explanation: McCarthy believed the secret prisons and rendition program were wrong and contrary to American law and values.
It’s an easy shot to say that she was unhappy with her status in a “backwater,” or that she didn’t like the Bush administration (many in the CIA certainly don’t). But she was in the IC for years and knew the secrecy of this program. She knew exactly who was “read in” to it. From what has been reported, it’s pretty obvious that number was small. The problem with leaking information on such secret and small programs is that you will almost always get caught. She must have known this. I find it hard to believe she would risk her career and criminal sanction simply because she wasn’t at the NIO level in the White House anymore. People go in and out of the White House all the time, especially when administrations change.
I have to take issue with Spook 86’s comments on her performance, or lack thereof, during her period as a warning officer.
I find it curious Spook 86 would finger McCarthy for failure to detect the first WTC bombing since the vast majority of the plot took place inside the US where the CIA has no authority or purview.
Furthermore, the Khobar Towers bombing was hardly a surprise. In fact, the official report on the bombing by the DoD says: Intelligence provided warning of the terrorist threat to U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia. http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/downing_rpt/unclf913.html
Everyone knew Khobar Towers was a target, but the local and theater Commanders didn’t put enough protections in place, and the Saudi’s refused to move the fence line further from the buildings.
Finally, this leak did not reveal any sources or methods for intelligence. The program was classified at such a high level primarily because of the political risk our allies were taking by associating with such a program. Additionally, it was also politically sensitive here in the US. The leak’s main impact was to hurt our relations with foreign intelligence agencies. Although it is a serious matter and Ms. McCarthy was justly fired and possibly should be prosecuted, this incident hardly climbs to the level of some other leaks that do reveal intelligence sources and methods.
12:31 am
But then again…it is fun, isn’t it?
Damn Skippy!
12:39 am
Whatsamatter, Rick? The proprieter of the nut house is getting cold feet about the nuttiness? Whats up with this? This is your vision, isn’t it? To encourage this kind of stuff?
There may be a little extra synergy today, probably because y’all been on the defensive so long, but it really isn’t all that out-of-the-ordinary.
You guys sound as nutty as “the left” everyday. Why do you think it occured to you to call this place the nuthouse?
10:24 am
MARY McCARTHY: OUTTA SIGHT, OUTTA MIND?
Rick Moran, at Right Wing Nut House, cautions us do not resort to spinning conspiracies: Rather than jump to conclusions, best take a deep breath and examine the information as it trickles out. Then we can start putting pieces of the puzzle together …
10:31 am
Rick, this sentiment speaks to thoughts I had last year about Joe Wilson:
http://www.agoyandhisblog.com/index.php?s=ASS-U-ME
I also try never to attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence or hubris.
But as time marches on evidence mounts showing – at the very least – a tacit web aimed at “correcting the electoral errors” of 2000 and 2004. Every effort to be charitable and defer to the wisdom of Occam is met by another well-orchestrated round of blatant partisan mendacity, erroneous moral equivalence, media “errors” and propaganda, or a resurgence of discredited “Bush Lied”, “no WMDs”, “no Iraqi link to terrorism” memes – ALL aimed at getting America back on the progressive track we veered away from when Al Gore failed to carry his own home state. And now we have not only out-and-out treason, but a veritable CELEBRATION of that treason in the Pulitzers!
I see this now as a variation on the “boiling frog” syndrome. Each lefty transgression becomes slightly more egregious, slightly less forgivable. Wilson’s actions in 2003 were almost explicable via his own hubris. Kerry’s retracted lies were a little worse, but not nearly bad enough to prevent him from almost being elected. The media’s relentless mendacity mill has gone from willful omissions and simple “errors” to blatant propaganda that now rolls on unabated and unabashed. And today’s treason and ensuing huzzahs are something out of a television series, not reality. We’d see this a lot more clearly except for the road we’ve travelled to get here, which has numbed us – and more importantly, numbed the Electorate – to the ever-increasing insolence of the left.
IMHO, clinging to the belief that this is all still coincidence sounds like a last gasp before going under for the last time. And then delerium ensues as we let the water gently boil our brains away.
Sorry. Occam just ain’t cuttin’ it any more.
11:15 am
[...] VINCE AUT MORIRE VODKAPUNDIT WALLO WORLD WHAT ATTITUDE PROBLEM? WIDE AWAKES WIZBANG WUZZADEM CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: THE VIPS CONNECTION THE OTHER SHOE DROPS CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: TY COBB AIN’T NO BENCHWARMER CIA VS. THE WHITEHOUSE: THE BIRD THAT ISN’T SINGING EAT YOUR HEART OUT CINDY SHEEHAN DEFEND DISSENT: PUNISH THE LEAKERS CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: McCARTHY AND THE DC REVOLVING DOOR CIA VS THE WHITE HOUSE: THE LONE PARTISAN? CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: WALKING BACK SLOWLY CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: GOOD LEAKS OR BAD? CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE: THE LEAKER AND THE SQUEALER ARE YOU “OVER” 9/11 YET? CARNIVAL OF THE CLUELESS #41 THE COUNCIL HAS SPOKEN JOKE OF THE DAY ANOTHER MORAN TAKES UP THE PEN A DASTARDLY DEED J’ACCUSE: BERNSTEIN MAKES A SERIOUS CASE FOR IMPEACHMENT HARDBALL MORE “ANGER AND DESPAIR” FROM THE LEFT ALL POLITICS ARE LOCAL? DON’T TELL THE DEMS THAT “STAY AT HOME” REPUBLICANS ANTI-AMERICAN? OR ANTI-BUSH? BILMON: A VERY SILLY PERSON “24″ (55) ABLE DANGER (10) Bird Flu (5) Blogging (80) Books (7) CARNIVAL OF THE CLUELESS (66) CHICAGO BEARS (9) CIA VS. THE WHITE HOUSE (17) Cindy Sheehan (12) Ethics (53) General (273) Government (32) History (51) IMMIGRATION REFORM (5) Iran (20) KATRINA (26) Katrina Timeline (4) Marvin Moonbat (14) Media (77) Middle East (24) Moonbats (45) Open House (1) Politics (164) Science (14) Space (12) Supreme Court (19) War on Terror (105) WATCHER’S COUNCIL (41) WORLD POLITICS (39) WORLD SERIES (14) Admin Login Register Valid XHTML XFN [...]
7:58 pm
[...] I will repeat for those of you who may have missed this post: I am not a believer in conspiracy theories as a general rule and especially in this case where much more evidence is required to prove any collusion between VIPS and the media in leaking classified data. Having said that, some enterprising journalist may want to look into this web of innocuous but rather curious connections and see if there’s anything to the notion that members of VIPS may have acted as a conduit to the press in passing along classified information from active duty intelligence personnel. [...]