Right Wing Nut House

Welcome Hugh Hewitt Readers! Join me this morning from 7:00 AM - 9:00AM Central time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio. Click the “Listen Live” button in the left sidebar to access the stream.

We’ll be talking about the situation in the Middle East all morning and taking your calls. Join the discussion at 1-888-407-1776.

***************************************************************

The news out of the Middle East today is grim and getting more grim by the hour. Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran are nerving themselves for a confrontation that could turn into a general war if things were to get out of control.

First, visit my friends Kit and Heidi at Euphoric Reality. They will have regular updates throughout the day and night. Their sources appear solid and their analysis is sharp. Also, they will be on WAR Radio tonight from 10:00 PM - 12:00AM Central with their thoughts and reactions to the days events.

And these events seem to this observer to be slowly spiraling out of control. This is not the sudden spasm of war as we experienced in 1967 and 1973. This is like a slow motion explosion, almost a steady, determined march toward the battlements by Israel and its enemies as the IDF put more and more pressure on Hamas and the Palestinians to relent and release their captured soldier. It was perhaps inevitable that Hizballah, believing the Israelis tied down in Gaza, felt it an opportune moment to pull the tail of the lion thinking that they would be relatively safe from retaliation. This morning, the terrorist group launched dozens of rockets and mortar shells into the disputed Shebaa Farms region in southern Lebanon killing several IDF soldiers. They then kidnapped two surviving IDF men which precipitated the massive raid by Israel involving planes, helicopters, gunboats, and tanks. So far, the Israelis are making Hizballah wish they had stayed in bed.

Meanwhile, the United States is pointing the finger right where it belongs; Syria and Iran. If not aware of Hizballah’s attack prior to its launch, there is little doubt that the terrorists felt they would have the support of their two major backers in case things got sticky. Given what the IDF is doing to Hizballah pretensions of being a viable military outfit, things couldn’t get much stickier for them than they are right now.

Israel is calling up reserves and sources have revealed that unless the kidnapped soldiers are returned, Israel will escalate even further:

The IAF on Wednesday began to issue call up orders in preparation for retaliatory air strikes against Hizbullah targets in Lebanon, Channel 2 reported. The air force will target power stations and Hizbullah outposts inside Lebanon.

The army was also calling up reservists. Only weeks ago, an entire reserve division was drafted in order to train for an operation such as the one the IDF is planning in response to Wednesday morning’s Hizbullah attacks on IDF forces along the northern border.

A very high ranking military officer said that if the soldiers were not returned in good condition, Israel would turn Lebanon back 20 years by striking its vital infrastructure.

Clearly, the Israelis have had just about enough of Hizballah and their constant provocations and are giving the Lebanese government pretty much of an ultimatum; rein in the terrorists or suffer the consequences.

It appears that Israel may have reached a point that, surrounded as they are by peoples that wish to wipe them off the map, they feel that confronting their tormentors now rather than later is strategically advantageous to them. Hence, the IDF raid into Lebanon to retrieve the two captured soldiers (and pay a visit to Hizballah) is not only a challenge to Syria (who view themselves as Lebanon’s “protector”) but also Iran who may be eager to flex their regional muscles on behalf of their Syrian allies.

And Iran’s most powerful proxy in the region is Hizballah. It may be too much to believe that the Iranians urged Hizballah to take action in order to relieve pressure on Hamas - another Iranian proxy - in Gaza but it’s a possibility that can’t be dismissed. More likely, Hizballah’s leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah initiated the military action as a result of a combination of internal Lebanese politics and a belief that he could bargain for the thousands of Lebanese prisoners (many of them Hizballah terrorists) languishing in Israeli prisons.

Nasrallah has been under increasing pressure from the March 14 coalition to get on board the democracy bandwagon and disarm his militia. He has played games with the Lebanese government for months, dangling the possibility that he would fold his militia into the Lebanese armed forces all the while insisting that Hizballah be called “The Resistance” for their confronting Israel over Shebaa Farms, a small village claimed by Israel, Syria, and Lebanon. It could be that Nasrallah saw the opportunity for a quick “victory” over Israel by taking the soldiers and then exchanging them for Lebanese prisoners. If so, he has miscalculated monumentally. The Lebanese government has disowned his actions, the Israelis are shelling Hizballah positions unmercifully as I write this, and after all is said and done, the Lebanese people could blame Hizballah for the misery their actions inflict on the country.

And the Israelis aren’t letting the Lebanese government off the hook that easily. They are blaming them for the attacks. And why not? The attacks were initiated from Lebanese soil. The downside to this is that the Lebanese government may feel compelled to defend Hizballah even though they really don’t want to. This kind of thing could set back efforts to achieve Lebanese stability and democracy many months.

Iran, of course, has its own agenda. If Syria feels some kind of military demonstration is in order (and as Lebanon’s protector, Assad may feel he absolutely must do something or lose credibility in that regard), Israel may feel compelled to respond to any attack or demonstration with a strike of their own. Escalation would be virtually automatic after that happens.

This doesn’t help Baby Assad in Syria. Relatively speaking, Iran is a long way away and it is doubtful that Syria’s larger but vastly inferior armed forces could stand up to Israel long enough for Iranian intervention to make a difference. But the Iranians may have other plans which could include missile strikes on Israel’s cities.

God help us if the Iranians are stupid enough to initiate a missile exchange. Could the IDF be absolutely sure that those missiles contained conventional warheads? Would they wait to find out or would Israel go with a “launch on warning” policy where they just assume that any missile launched from Iran contains WMD?

Unthinkable.

None of the players want war (save possibly Iran). But the longer Israel remains in Lebanon, the shorter the fuse of war will burn. Let’s hope that Israel can get their captured soldiers back very soon. The alternative would be devastating to everyone involved.

UPDATE

First, Allah has a massive round-up at Hot Air, a dizzying array of links and commentary including a link to a Debka article that confirms some of my speculation - which worries me a little given their reputation for exaggeration and publishing outright rumor. For what its worth, they say that the attack by Hizballah was indeed meant to take the heat off Hamas and was approved by Iran. They also say that Syria is beating the war drums and that the Iranians also are on high alert.

Yikes.

Also, Kit and Heidi are reporting that Israel will declare war tonight.

Judging from the information contained in their updates, this looks like the real thing folks. If, as ER is reporting, Israel goes after Hizballah hammer and tongs, do not expect Syria and Iran to stand idly by while their number one proxy in the region is ripped to shreds. Right now, the only question is how severe their response will be. Will they take the risk and confront Israel directly? Or will they stop short of that and settle for demonstrations?

Time will tell.