Right Wing Nut House

I like to think one of the reasons for the modest success I’ve enjoyed from this site is that my writing reflects many of the values, the thoughts, the dreams and hopes of Middle America. My heart is connected to the Heartland in ways I never understood until I returned from my life’s travels 15 years ago and settled in the Fox Valley in Northern Illinois. A distance of about 30 miles from where I grew up in suburban Chicago, it was a lifetime removed from Washington, D.C. and St. Louis where I spent my professional career. The pace and rhythm of life in Algonquin was slower, more deliberate, more conducive to reflection and introspection. I enjoyed it immensely and realized that here was where I was happiest, where I was most content.

Now, comfortably ensconced in Streator, IL, I am finding that the people and place are, if anything, more in tune with what is truly important in life; family, friends, God, and country. To a large degree this is a reflection of something that many in the political class either ignore or denigrate; that Americans are free to know exactly as much about politics and elections that they feel they must - no more, no less - and that this does not make them stupid, or unworthy, or sheep-like.

For Heartland voters, the big issues are subsumed and the election becomes quite personal. Who can I trust? Who do I like? Which candidate makes sense to me? And in these perilous times, perhaps the biggest question is which candidate can keep me and my family safe from the ravages of a dangerous world and unpredictable economy.

This back and forth about McCain’s fascism or Obama’s socialism is largely ignored in the Heartland. As is William Ayers and Obama’s strange and radical associates. As too McCain’s gaffes, Biden’s inanities, and Palin’s alleged unreadiness for office. The reams of paper and giga-bytes of bandwidth expended in promoting, defending, attacking, parrying, lying, smearing, and waxing poetic reaches the Heartland voter, if it ever does, as a confused jumble of noise. It is largely ignored.

Instead, voters out here depend on a well developed sense of being able to judge a candidate as a person - the famous formulation “Would you want to have a beer with this guy?” And surprisingly, a high standard of fairness is employed as part of that character judgement. Which candidate is playing by the rules? Which candidate is delivering low blows? Negative campaigning might “work” in the sense it pulls down the other guy. But it is done at a cost to the attacker.

All of the particulars of the race aside, my friends and neighbors are much too busy working, raising their families, volunteering at the local hospital or Salvation Army, and living simple, meaningful lives to embroil themselves in the issue of the day, the gaffe of the week, or the smears, lies, exaggerations, and deliberate obfuscations of the truth for which this campaign is known to those of us who follow it closely.

They might have a bare bones idea of Obama’s health insurance plan. The same for McCain’s education policy. But it comes to them as an echo from a far distant speaker. This disconnect from the “issues” of campaigns has driven liberals to distraction as they accuse Heartland voters of “not voting their interests.” Conservatives have lately - to their shame - been getting on Middle America for not caring about Obama’s anti-American and terrorist connections, accusing them of being deliberately unaware.

Both sides are laughably off base. Of course Heartland voters vote their interests. It’s just that their “interests” are not the same as liberals. And I have found a superficial knowledge of Ayers et al among my friends who, as they do with other attacks, tune out these matters as irrelevant to their vote. What they’ve heard of Obama - during the debates and some of his speeches - they like. But closing the deal with Middle America has proven to be a problem for Obama. Three days out from the election and I would say that Obama could win in a landslide - if Heartland voters could be sure of him.

It isn’t Ayers and Wright that appear to trouble my friends and neighbors. It’s that Obama is just not enough of a known quantity. But it appears to me that a majority of them - even some who claim to support McCain at this point - are willing to make a leap of faith and cast their vote for the Democrat.

Take my neighbors from across the street. Dana and Curt are about as typically Middle American as you can get. Married for 20+ years, two great kids, a dog, a comfortable house. Hardworking, God fearing, country loving Heartland voters living smack dab in the middle of Middle America. The campaigns have spent the equivalent of the Gross Domestic Product of some African countries trying to sway the Danas and Curts of America to vote for them.

How are they doing?

Three days before the election and Dana is leaning toward McCain but might vote for Obama. She is upset at what she sees as the unfair treatment of Palin. She hates being vilified for whatever her choice is going to be. And she wishes that no matter who is elected, that Americans support the new president.

I think that sums up perfectly where much of Middle America is at the moment. Not confusion, but uncertainty. Obama hasn’t yet closed the sale but the voters are unhappy with McCain as the alternative. And I sense the number of undecideds even at this late date to be larger - perhaps much larger - than is reflected in poll numbers.

I have gotten a lot of grief for my posts about the state of the race these last couple of weeks. I still believe that Obama will win rather comfortably - more than 320 EV’s and 5% popular vote victory.

But there is more than just a hope for McCain - more than perhaps I have vouchsafed his campaign these last weeks. If something happens these last 72 hours - if something is revealed or if Obama says something stupid - it could go south in a big way very, very quickly for the Democrat in the Heartland and the biggest surprise in the history of American politics might occur. Something similar could happen to McCain in that a 5 point margin could become a landslide of epic proportions for Obama. That might occur anyway if Obama’s support were to firm up - a distinct possibility.

I would give that scenario about a 30% chance while a McCain surprise comes in at less than 10% - diminishing the closer we get to the election. (Nate Silver gives the Obama blowout scenario a 38% chance of happening while a McCain victory of any kind tops out at almost 4%).

The election will be decided by Middle America. And I can’t think of any group to which I would prefer entrusting our country’s future.