Right Wing Nut House

There are so many “plans” to stop the violence in the Israeli-Islamist War that I thought I’d lay them out in one post so that you can see how hard it is going to be to achieve a halt anytime soon.

The major players at the UN - France vs. Britain and the US - and the Middle East - US/Israel vs. Lebanon/Hizbullah - all have their own ideas on how to stop the war. And the differences are not insignificant, not by any means. Let’s look at the US-Israeli positions first.

US/ISRAEL

1. No “cease fire” (an important word choice) until an international force is “in place.”

2. International force would occupy a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon (size to be determined)

3. International force must have rules of engagement that allow it to shoot back in order to keep Hizbullah from re-occupying the south.

4. Hizbullah must be disarmed - either by the Lebanese themselves or by the International force.

5. Immediate release of Israeli prisoners.

6. Lebanese Army will take over from the International force once they are trained and deployed.

7. Lebanese government will have sovereignty over all of Lebanon.

Now here’s the Lebanese government/Hizbullah formulation:

LEBANON/HIZBULLAH

1. Immediate cease fire along with an immediate withdrawal of IDF forces.

2. No international force - only an augment to the UNIFIL force already there.

3. No buffer zone and Hizbullah gets to re-occupy positions in the south.

4. Lebanese government will disarm Hizbullah following discussions carried out in the context of the National Dialogue.

5. Release of all Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails in return for the two captured IDF soldiers.

6. Resolution of the Shebaa Farms issue with the UN turning over the tiny slice of land to Lebanon.

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah (who is temporarily calling the negotiating shots) has made it clear that any international force not connected to UNIFIL will be considered invaders. And the Israelis have agreed to release 3 Lebanese prisoners in exchange for their two captured soldiers.

Now, what’s going on at the UN?

UNITED NATIONS

Roughly speaking, France has taken the Lebanese positions while Condi Rice has modified the American position marginally in order to come a little closer to what the French are asking:

Efforts are under way at the United Nations to set up a mechanism that would facilitate “direct or indirect” Israeli-Lebanese discussions, senior Israeli diplomatic officials said Thursday.

According to the officials, under this proposal “everything would be discussed: a cease-fire, the Shaba Farms issue, the prisoner exchange, and deployment of the multinational force.”

According to UN and American officials, an arrangement of this kind, which would include a pair of Security Council resolutions, is now within reach.

Here is the French proposal:

FRANCE

1. Immediate cease fire.

2. No discussion of other issues until the guns stop.

3. All “political issues” like the disarming of Hizbullah and deployment of the Lebanese army to be worked out before France or any international troops occupy the buffer zone.

4. Weak rules of engagement for the international force.

How close can Condi come to that position? Here’s what she and the Brits have come up with:

The solution to these divergent positions has come in the form of two resolutions. The first, to be voted on in the coming days, will establish a “cessation of hostilities” and articulate a political framework for the future.

Israeli officials said that this document would likely be similar to a statement issued by the G-8 soon after the crisis began last moth, and include a call to release the captive Israeli soldiers, for a cessation of hostilities, and for beefing up the Lebanese army.

The first resolution would be window dressing. It would call for “a cessation of hostilities” rather than a “cease fire.” In the cuckoo land of diplomacy, this makes everyone happy. It is immediate which pleases the French but it doesn’t use the words “cease fire” which pleases us and the Israelis.

We also want to append a call for sanctions against any nation that resupply’s Hizbullah. France is frowning on that because they want to engage the Syrians to help rein in Hizbullah. But as we’ve seen with sanctions elsewhere, there are ways around them so in the end, France will probably give in.

This resolution will be trumpeted by the media but will mean little. It is the second resolution that will have teeth (if any) and that will tell the tale as to whether or not any cease fire will mean a pause of a couple of weeks or a genuine solution:

The second resolution, which would follow after an as yet determined amount of time, would set the composition and mandate of a multinational force and the contours of a new buffer zone in southern Lebanon. It would also assert the authority of the Lebanese government and propose help to the Lebanese Army to gain control of its borders.

Israel’s position is that the IDF first needs to clear the buffer zone, one currently being carved out by the IDF, in order for the multinational force to move in. Israel wants this force to be “an international army,” not an observer force like UNIFIL, but rather one strong enough that it can impose its will.

The real sticking point here is what happens to the buffer zone in the meantime? France wants Israel to withdraw and the UNIFIL force occupy the buffer zone until the International force can be constituted. Israel and the US naturally are balking at that idea.

The solution may involve a token international “rapid response” force that could be flown in immediately and buttress UNIFIL’s efforts. Israel quite naturally is very wary of this and may put the kibosh on the entire idea - unless Washington insists:

There are two possibilities for solving this remaining problem. The IDF could maintain its position until the arrival of an international force, a position clearly favored by the Israeli government and opposed by Lebanon, among other countries. The other option is for the current UNIFIL mission to be beefed up. Its troops could then be integrated into whatever larger, more robust force arrives. Israel, considering UNIFIL to be weak, opposes this solution.

This remains a major point of contention between the American and French. As French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told France-Inter radio on Thursday, “We are working well with the Americans, working night and day. We are advancing toward a common resolution, but we’re not yet there. There is still work to do.”

That actually sounds more hopeful than is realistic. After spilling all that blood (and having Washington stick its neck out in support of Israel’s offensive) it is doubtful that we will compromise when it comes to Israeli forces in the buffer zone leaving until a sizable force of International soldiers who can enforce their will by having “robust” rules of engagement is in place. This will probably be a sticking point that takes another 10 days to 2 weeks to resolve.

In the meantime, here’s my speculation.

The first resolution calling for a “cessation of hostilities” will pass easily. Israel will probably stop bombing outside the buffer zone in Lebanon (or perhaps stop bombing all together). This will put pressure on Nasrallah to make good on his promise to stop launching rockets into northern Israel. It will not stop the IDF from carrying out “mop-up” operations in whatever buffer zone they can carve out between now and the passage of that first resolution.

The Security Council will have a devil of a time coming to an agreement on the second resolution. In the end, Hizbullah will probably be kicked out of southern Lebanon but still get to keep their guns. The Lebanese government will be just as weak as it was before the conflict started but will perhaps have assistance from the international community in training its army (which I predict will include Hizbullah as an independent command thus making them part of the army rather than a militia that needs to be disarmed) and rebuilding its devastated infrastructure.

And then both sides will lick their wounds, re-arm, and get ready for the next go around.

Join me this morning from 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Today we’ll examine the possible diplomatic settlement in the works that could be voted on in the UN Security Council as early as today. We’ll also take apart some critiques of US policy by a former Clinton official and a former Israeli negotiator. And I’ll have two columns from the masters - Hanson and Krauthammer.

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It appears that whatever demons were bedeviling Jeff Goldstein have been exorcised and he has returned to blogging. Let’s hope all is well and that Eugene, Oregon has been cleared of all moonbat droppings.

I think…Yes, I really believe the little guy needs to be trotted out and given some space because if this isn’t cause for a celebratory reel I don’t know what is…

How about a solo there, Tex?

Welcome back, Jeff.

Watching as Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake gets raked over the coals by conservatives for her jaw dropping portrayal of Senator Lieberman in blackface over at HuffPo, I couldn’t help but have a twinge of sympathy for her.

Not because I care that conservatives are being really, really nasty towards the bitch. She deserves every mean thing said about her and then some. She’s a female version of Glenn Greenwald, Dave Niewert, and Billmon all rolled up into a disgusting Rouladen of snark, snippiness, and snobbishness so disturbingly vile that after reading her hysterical rants against righties, you feel compelled to decontaminate your laptop in order to prevent the spread of some flesh crawling contagion.

My sympathy for Mrs. Hamster lies with the fact that being a liberal is such a challenge to rational thought that only a select breed of human is capable of the feat. Think about it for a minute. How many aggrieved races, classes, ethnic groups, sexual orientations, oppressed minorities, mentally challenged, physically challenged,, weight challenged, sexually repressed, sexually aberrant people does a liberal have to keep track of so that when trying to be funny they don’t step on anyone’s toes?

It must be like living life in a minefield. One misstep and BOOM! All of a sudden, you’re an internet verb.

Can you imagine the thought processes a liberal has to go through in order to try and be funny? I mean, do you think they have a list of forbidden words tattooed on the inside of their thighs so that they remember not to use gay” when talking about people who are simply happy? Or “niggardly” to describe miserly behavior?

Perhaps this is why most liberal bloggers are so deadly serious. It’s the only way they can be truly amusing. When Glenn Greenwald accuses conservatives of being incipient authoritarians or when Dave Niewert posits prestidigitation as a reason that conservatives sound like neo-Nazis, we should remember that these are considered real knee slappers by liberals and not to take either these gentlemen or their ideas with any seriousness whatsoever.

Of course, there are other things that makes a liberals life a living hell. Keeping up with the latest in grievance group news must be a pain in the butt. Scouring the papers daily for that telltale whine from some newly oppressed sub-sub group of an already oppressed minority can be a real chore. But Gaia’s chosen ones must put their all into the effort to bring the sub-sub group’s grievance to light. There are meetings to organize, T-Shirts to be printed, editorials to be written, blogbursts, blegs, and blab-fests to be highlighted.

And then there’s that trip to the tattoo parlor to get another word etched on the inside of their thigh, one more sub-sub group they can’t afford to injure by using some offending nomenclature while trying to be amusing.

The picture of Lieberman in blackface will not injure the reputation of Mrs. Hamster. After all, no one seriously believes that she has a racist bone in her body. But what truly might become a cause celebre is her candidate’s eyebrow raising response to the imbroglio:

“I don’t know anything about the blogs, I’m not responsible for those, I have no comment on ‘em…Independent blogs, I can’t say anything about it.”

Huh? Malkin explains:

As I pointed out yesterday, Jane Hamsher is more than a mere “independent” blogger sitting on the Lamont campaign sidelines. She filmed Lamont’s first videoblog. She chauffeured Lamont and his staff. She raised money for him. She’s still on his blogroll. And despite Lamont’s claim that he doesn’t control blogs and Hamsher’s claim that she “answers to nobody,” he told her to pull the blackface Photoshop yesterday–and she dutifully complied.

And this was Hamster’s statement from yesterday:

I sincerely apologize to anyone who was genuinely offended by the choice of images accompanying my blog post today on the Huffington Post. It’s also important to note that I do not, nor have I ever worked for Ned Lamont’s campaign. However, at their request, I removed the image earlier today.

“Pay no attention to that girl behind the curtain…”

Ned Lamont was cruising to a huge victory in the Democratic primary next Tuesday over Lieberman. He may yet win. But his disingenuous response when asked about his…what is Mrs. Hamster to Lamont’s campaign? Personal confidante? Blog Guru? Lapdog? Whatever role she fills in actuality, it is clear that in her own mind, Mrs. Hamster was a mover and shaker inside Little Neddy’s campaign. And for Lamont to disavow any knowledge of or connection to Jane Hamsher is a shocking mistake that almost surely will cost him some votes - but probably not the election. That said, Lieberman’s independent campaign for the seat got a huge boost with this idiocy.

And who knows? We’re only on day two of this little kerfluffle. If the local media latches on and starts to chew, anything is possible. And if it costs Lamont the primary, it will be a blow to the already non-credible netnuts whose track record in elections is surpassed in futility only by that of the Cubs and their efforts to get to the World Series.

Makes me glad I’m not a liberal. It’s just too much work to prove how ignorant and stupid you are.

This article originally appears in The American Thinker.

Stubborn or courageous? Calculating or clueless? Smart or dumb?

My, but historians will have a tough time trying to define George Bush. At least the honest historians will. And by honest, I mean those who will make an effort to glean the truth from the avalanche of contemporary reports portraying the 43rd President as (take your pick) 1) a captive of a neoconservative conspiracy; 2) a doltish, two dimensional clod who sees all the problems of the world in black and white; or 3) an unsophisticated lout in thrall to a religious fanaticism that sees conflict in the Middle East as proof that the End Times are upon us.

Indeed, it may be the President’s critics who are the simpletons. Blinded by their own hubris and in love with their fey conceits, most of the President’s detractors are in a snit because George Bush thinks there’s something of a war on and they don’t much like the way he’s fighting it.

First and foremost, he’s neglecting the nuance involved in warmaking. Silly George! He can’t go around lumping Hamas, Hizbullah, and al-Qaeda together as if there was anything similar about them. That just isn’t done. What those three fundamentalist Islamic terror groups could possibly have in common seems to escape those who insist that the world is a complicated place with many shades of gray. They believe that “good” and “evil” are meaningless terms that may in fact be neo-colonial racist constructs not descriptives aimed at morally differentiating between those who see slaughtering innocents as a path to heaven and those who seek to stop them.

And doesn’t our President know that their are gradations of evil? Hamas is not as evil as Hizbullah because they were, well, elected sort of. And Hizbullah builds day care centers and has seats in the Lebanese parliament. This makes them less evil than al-Qaeda who we’re not fighting the right way because we’re not getting to the root causes of what upsets them so. Better that we try and understand why they want to conquer the world and convert every living soul to Islam than seek them out and destroy them.

But what has the President’s critics howling with full throated cries of outrage is that dumb old George has gone and upset the Middle East apple cart. He’s standing firmly on the side of Israel rather than practicing the traditional American balancing act of tying ourselves into pretzel like contortions in order to please the Arab supporters of the Palestinians by decreeing a pox on both their houses.

In other words, Bush is getting raked over the coals by both domestic critics and the international community because during this go around with their terrorist tormentors, he is standing shoulder to shoulder with Israel and letting the devil take Hamas and Hizbullah. This has thrown the calculations of both the terrorists and their patrons in Syria and Iran into a cocked hat. Who would have thought that the United States would actually allow Israel a “green light” to so weaken Hamas and Hizbullah that their ability to harm the Jewish state would be seriously hampered? It’s unprecedented in the sorry annals of Middle East diplomacy.

And therein lies a clue to the President’s thinking. While the current war is a serious crisis still with the possibility of an escalation that could include other state actors in the conflict, what is happening in the Middle East is revolutionary and in the end, necessary. The diplomatic framework that has been employed dozens of times since the birth of the Jewish state in 1948 to keep the lid on the Palestinian/Israel question has been revealed to be obsolete.

Born in a bi-polar world where it was vitally necessary to prevent war from breaking out between Israel and its Arab neighbors lest the conflict escalate to a superpower showdown, the tried and true rigmarole that saw Arab defeat snatched from the jaws of a complete Israeli victory was an unsatisfying yet necessary adjunct to the diplomatic dance which saw the United States playing the part of “honest broker” to Palestinian aspirations.

What exactly did that achieve? Lasting peace? A safe and secure Israel? For nearly 60 years the world community has worked the same diplomatic levers and pulleys to no avail. Not when support for the murderous fedayeen in Hamas and Hizbullah as well as other terror groups like Islamic Jihad and the Muslim Brotherhood continues from sources all over the Arab world and threatens destruction of the Jewish state.

While the President’s naysayers in Europe and America are almost apoplectic with rage and calls for a cease fire resonate from the United Nations to the Hague, Bush remains stoic in his belief that Israel’s fight against Hizbullah actually has something to do with the War on Terror and thus deserves America’s full and unqualified support. Since many of the President’s critics don’t believe we’re at war in the first place, this lack of American “balance” in dealing with the terrorist aggressors of Hamas and Hizbullah is all the more shocking. It is chalked up to either Bush’s simple minded view of terrorism or his animus toward Muslims in general.

More conspiratorially, hints of the Vast Jewish Conspiracy haunt the thoughts of the borderline anti-Semites who dreamily wonder aloud if Israel has a “right to exist” in the first place. In the past, this kind of filth would have been confined to the poorly mimeographed rants of neo-Nazi mouthbreathers. Now, these thoughts appear on the slick website of the most popular and powerful liberal blog in the world.

Most on the left (and the paleo-right) seem content not to voice their hopes for the destruction of the Jewish state out loud and settle for accusing Bush of being a puppet of the Zionists. Of course, this is a free floating kind of critique in that a few short years ago, the roles of the United States and Israel were transposed in this relationship and it was Israel having its strings pulled by evil capitalists. One would hope that the some day, the inveterate Jew haters of the world would make up their minds and decide once and for all who is Sherri Lewis and who is Lambchop in this relationship.

It doesn’t seem to matter to our George. While expressing the proper amount of regret at civilian casualties, he firmly makes the point that the moral onus for the death of civilians lies heavily on the shoulders of those who use the innocents to shield their military activities and then employ their dead bodies in a macabre propaganda side show, not to mention glorying in the death of civilians they deliberately target themselves. This moral distinction, so brilliantly exposited by James Lewis on these pages last Sunday, is lost on those either too blinded by their hatred of the President (or the United States) or those whose moral cowardice in the face of such evil has made them unable to confront the consequences of their ambivalence.

Perhaps what makes the President’s opponents the most uncomfortable is this uncompromising stance against evil. While it certainly has biblical overtones, it seems to be based more on a faith in something beyond religious conviction - a steadfast belief in the goodness of man. Those whose cynicism towards humanity blinds them to people’s potential to do great and good things as well as savage and terrible things will not ever understand this aspect of the Bush presidency. It goes to Bush’s core beliefs in freedom and the natural rights of man - that all people everywhere are born into liberty.

This belief plays into Bush’s stubborn support of Israel in the face of opposition that perhaps would have cowed a lesser man. He sees Israel much as he sees America. Speaking at the American Jewish Committee’s Centennial Dinner last May, the President spoke of our similarities:

We have so much in common. We’re both young countries born of struggle and sacrifice. We’re both founded by immigrants escaping religious persecution. We have both established vibrant democracies built on the rule of law and open markets. We’re both founded on certain basic beliefs, that God watches over the affairs of men, and that freedom is the Almighty God’s gift to every man and woman on the face of this earth. These ties have made us natural allies, and these ties will never be broken.

Simple but not simple minded. And the unstated ties between Israel and the United States are perhaps the most binding. We are joined at the hip as the result of the unspeakable atrocity of the holocaust. There is only one nation on earth with the ability and yes, the moral authority to see that the Jewish people never suffer such a blow again. The world community has proved itself fickle in its support for a Jewish state. And while the nation of Israel is perfectly capable of defending itself, the steadfast support of the United States in its times of trial over the last 60 years has benefited both countries.

We are morally committed to the survival of the Jewish state, a commitment unlike any other we have made to any other country. Unlike his critics, the President understands this and sees Israel’s war against Hizbullah for what it is; a fight for the tiny state’s right to exist. The terrorists and their sponsors in Damascus and Tehran have made no secret of their desire to see Israel destroyed. One wonders why the President’s numerous critics both here and abroad pretend that such hatred doesn’t exist or that it can be reasoned with or bargained away.

Perhaps seeing the world the way George sees it might not be such a bad thing after all.

Join me this morning from 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Today we’ll look at the worldwide Jihad and how the west may be sleepwalking its way to disaster. We’ll also examine the final report by the IDF on the Qana tragedy. And I’ll have the skinny on the Jane Hamsher/Lieberman blackface kerfluffle and how it might impact next Tuesday’s Connecticut primary.

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Thinking of ice cream cones today - two scoops of double chocolate fudge brownie on a chocolate cone with hot chocolate, nuts, and a cherry on top.

Not that my waistline can afford it but…

Rather, here’s a double scoop of Watchers Councils results for your eating pleasure…

RESULTS FROM W/E 7/21

COUNCIL

1st Place: When History Bites Back by Joshuapundit.

2nd Place: Blogging for Dummies Like Me by The Sundries Shack

NON-COUNCIL

1st Place: Wither the ‘Democratization Strategy’? by Tigerhawk.

2nd Place: Beheading Nations — The Islamization of Europe’s Cities by Dhimmi Watch

RESULTS FROM W/E 7/28

COUNCIL

1st Place: A Perspective on Tribes and Anti-Semitism by Shrinkwrapped

2nd Place: As Old as the Garden of Eden by Gates of Vienna

NON-COUNCIL

1st Place: Mayhem at the Defend Hizballah Rally! by Solomonia

2nd Place: Worst Case Scenario: Hezbollah’s Conventional Forces by Counterterrorism Blog

If you’d like to enter the Watcher’s Council weekly contest, go here and follow instructions.

And, due to the resignation of AJ Strata, a spot has opened up on the Council. If you’re interested in serving, go here and read carefully.

Sad to see AJ go -a great blogger with great insight into several national security issues. He will be sorely missed. And I hope he still finds time to blog about issues he has informed all of us on over these many months.

Alright, I’m being flip and disrespectful about this, but C’mon Mr. Talabani! We’ve had enough pie in the sky pronouncements from our own people. We don’t need it from someone ostensibly charged with the responsibility of working to improve the dire security situation of his people:

President Jalal Talabani said Wednesday that Iraqi forces will assume security duties for the whole country by the end of the year, taking over responsibility from U.S. and other foreign troops now policing all but one of the 18 provinces. The optimistic forecast came during a relative lull in the violence wracking Iraq. Police said nine people were slain Wednesday, a day after a wave of bombings and shootings killed more than 70.

Iraqi leaders had said previously that their goal was to be fully in control of security by the end of 2006, but Talabani’s statement was the most specific.

The president, a Kurd from northern Iraq, said the government is confident it will vanquish extremist groups, calling the recent surge in violence as “the last arrows in their pockets.”

“We are highly optimistic that we will terminate terrorism in this year,” he said.

Nearly a quarter million Iraqis have been displaced by the sectarian violence that rages on a daily basis. Death squads are running rampant in Baghdad and its environs killing more than 100 a day. You still have a Sunni insurgency with upwards of 20,000 hardened fighters setting off car bombs and IED’s. The loyalty of many of your police (not so much the army) is still suspect. And Mookie al-Sadr and his merry band of torturing thugs flips the bird at you and your government every single day.

On top of that, you have forces at work that are tearing the country apart with Kurdish separatism in the north a growing menace and Shia nationalism asserting itself in the south.

The Turks are mad as hornets at Kurdish terrorism and may invade in order to stop it while Iran and Syria laugh in the face of the United States and your government while supplying everyone who is raising a hand against you with arms.

Shall I go on?

Corruption, an inability to compromise, infrastructure problems, an intelligentsia and middle class fleeing for their lives (estimated 500,000 have left the country in the last 2 years), and an economy that is swirling down the proverbial toilet.

And you want to police all of this with what American commanders are telling us is perhaps as few as 6 or 7 brigades of competently trained soldiers?

Gimme whatever you’re smoking, Mr. President ’cause its better’n what I got ’shyear.

Seriously, this statement by the President doesn’t mean diddly. He has very little power, constitutionally speaking although he is a well respected man. He may just be reiterating the mantra chanted by other Iraqi politicians who need to get the Americans out of the country as soon as possible.

And don’t worry. We’re not going anywhere. In fact, in the next couple of weeks, we’re going to start wiping the smile off Mookie al-Sadr’s face - and there will be no one to save him this time. Ditto for the Badr Brigades in the south as well as the Sunni militias not associated with the insurgency who have sprung up in Baghdad in answer to the Shia militia’s death squads.

The kidnappers, the gangs, and other criminals will be a matter for the Iraqi forces to deal with. If Prime Minister Maliki is serious about cracking down - and in many ways his life depends on him being serious - what we are about to witness in the next fortnight is what we should have done two years ago but were prevented by the Ayatollah al-Sistani - kill al-Sadr and destroy his Iranian-loving militia.

My guess is that by the end of the year, the security situation will have improved noticeably but will be no where near what it should be. It will take a long time to rid Iraq of the devils that torment her. But given time and the skills of the United States military, it will be possible.

As long as her leaders don’t act like a bunch of Pollyannas in pigtails, that is…

Join me this morning from 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Today we’ll look at that commando raid in Baalbek that may have netted a relative of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. We’ll also look at the Qana tragedy and how that story is changing almost hourly. And we’ll examine a startling report by political guru Charlie Cook who predicts a Democratic sweep in November.

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I’LL HAVE THE LATEST ON THE ISRAELI-ISLAMIST WAR ON THE RICK MORAN SHOW, 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM CENTRAL ON WIDEAWAKES RADIO. ACCESS THE STREAM HERE.

This could be the best news of the war.

The IDF is carrying out some kind of ground operation with heavy air support in the Bekaa Valley, more than 60 miles north and east of the Litani River (almost 75 miles from the Israeli-Lebanon border). Troops are engaged in heavy fighting with Hizbullah’s best troops near - and get this - the ancient city of Baalbek.

Lebanese army and security officials said a major Israel Defense Forces operation was underway against suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley late Tuesday. IDF troops thrust deep into the area, landing troops by helicopter in the Hezbollah heartland.

Lebanese security sources said IDF soldiers had landed by helicopter near Baalbek as aircraft launched several strikes in the region.

One Lebanese officer saying the Israel Air Force presence in the air above the ancient city was “unprecedented.”

Lebanese army and security officials said a major IDF operation was under way against suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek.

Baalbek just happens to be where the Syrians maintained their headquarters during the occupation of Lebanon. It is also the place where Iranian Revolutionary Guards were quartered during their announced stay in Lebanon during the 80’s.

The Lebanese have accused the Syrians of never entirely leaving Lebanon, maintaining an outpost in the Bekaa Valley and being given cover by Hizbullah. It is also thought that the Iranians never left Lebanon either, handling logistical support for the terrorists also in Bekaa.

Could the Israelis be going after the Syrian and Iranian personnel stationed in the Bekaa?

The bulk of Hizbullah’s best fighters are stationed in the Bekaa Valley, being too valuable to risk in any stand-up fight with the IDF. The small sized operations carried out by the IDF prior to today netted only several hundred of the estimated 3,000 of these crack troops. Most analysts believed that in order for the IDF to really hurt Hizbullah, some kind of Bekaa operation was an absolute necessity.

Is this a raid? Or are these troops the vanguard of a major thrust aimed at the heart of Hizbullah? And what about any stray Syrians or Iranians? What would be the consequences of the IDF busting up any kind of logistical and/or intel operations being carried out by the terrorist’s patrons?

The next 48 hours will be the most crucial in this war. They will probably answer the questions above as well as decide the question of how serious the Israelis are about winning through to a decisive victory.

UPDATE

At the moment, this strike appears to be a Special Forces operation aimed at a hospital in Baalbek:

Hezbollah’s chief spokesman, Hussein Rahal, told The Associated Press that Israeli troops landed near Dar al-Hikma Hospital and that fierce fighting continued to rage for more than one hour.

“A group of Israeli commandos was brought to the hospital by a helicopter. They entered the hospital and are trapped inside as our fighters opened fire on them and fierce fighting is still raging,” Rahal said.

Rahal said Hezbollah guerrillas were using automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenades. He dismissed as “untrue” reports that the Israeli commandos managed to snatch some patients from the hospital and spirit them away in helicopters. He said Israel jets were attacking the surrounding guerrilla force with rockets.

The IDF snatching patients from a hospital? Could it be that those “patients” were none other than the two IDF soldiers kidnapped by Hizbullah on July 12?

Jumping to conclusions is an occupational hazard for a blogger. Patience in this case, will reveal all.

UPDATE II

YNet News is reporting additional strikes against Hemel as well as the bombing of several key border crossings between Syria and Lebanon:

Just hours after the conclusion of the meeting, witnesses reported that Israeli warplanes targeted the Hizbullah stronghold of Hermel deep inside Lebanon early Tuesday, despite Israel’s 48 hours suspension of air strikes. Warplanes fired at least five air-to-surface missiles on the town, witnesses said. Another strike targeted an area near the Syrian border.

The J-Post offers more details:

Earlier, fighter-bombers struck deep inside the country, hitting the Hizbullah stronghold of Hermel, some 120 km. north of the border in the Bekaa Valley, witnesses said. Planes also hit Hizbullah fighters battling with soldiers near the border, as the gunmen fired mortars into Israel.

About six hours later, jets returned to attack Hermel again, hitting a pickup truck loaded with cooking gas canisters, security officials said. The canisters exploded, sending flames shooting up from the vehicle for nearly an hour. The driver had pulled over and exited the vehicle before the attack, and was not hurt, they said.

Another strike at an area near the Syrian border, about 10 km. north of Hermel, targeted the Qaa-Homs road, one of four official crossing points between Lebanon and Syria. Lebanon’s official news agency reported IAF jets also hit early Tuesday near the Masnaa crossing into Syria, which was attacked several times in the last three days.

Tuesday’s air strikes meant that two of the four border crossings are now closed because of damage. Repeated air strikes have made the main Beirut-Damascus highway impassable.

Sure is a lot of air activity for a raid. The IDF has still only committed a fraction of its force of more than 10,000 crack troops along the border with Lebanon, no more than regiment-sized engagements.

Could they be preparing for a lightening quick thrust into Bekaa, bypassing Hez strong points in the south and racing north in an effort to engage the bulk of Nasrallah’s men in the Bekaa Valley?

More rank speculation from an amatuer to be sure. But the IDF clearly needs to do something spectacular in order to turn the tide of perceptions about this war from an Israeli defeat into a smashing victory.

UPDATE III 8/2

Bill Roggio reports that the IDF Special Forces captured several low-level Hizbullah officials - including one with an interesting name:

The commandos were extracted from the scene after a fierce gun battle which included air strikes and strafing runs on Hezbollah positions outside the hospital, The commandos did not leave empty handed, and “took a number of Hizbullah officials captive.” Haaretz reports 3 to 5 “junior Hezbollah militants” were captured, and several more were killed during the raid. “[Lebanese sources] identified the men as Hussein Nasrallah, Hussein al-Burji and Ahmed al-Ghotah and described them as low ranking members of the group,” according to Haaretz, and “The captured Hussein Nasrallah has the same name as a Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”

Coincidence?

Also, check out the excellent map at CTB showing exactly where in the Bekaa Israel hit. It appears the IAF is trying to choke off any Syrian attempt at resupplying their friends in Hizbullah. They could also be trying to forestall any attempt by Syria to assist Hizbullah if the IDF decides to make a major thrust into the Valley.