Right Wing Nut House

Via Instapundit:

The elder Assad’s untimely death put Bashar in command, but not in control, of Syria. His dad’s cronies control most of the bureaucracy, armed forces and security organizations. There is no agreement among all these chiefs about what to do to stay in power. Thus we have the bizarre contrast of Syrian police turning over Saddam’s half-brother and 30 of his henchmen, while Syrian agents facilitate the assassination of a prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese politician, and a suicide bombing inside Israel. All within two weeks. No senior Syrians will admit that no one is completely in control in Syria. It is feared that there may be a coup, as some of the senior generals and security officials push Bashar Assad aside and take over. Bashar is seen by his father’s old timers as too inexperienced. But the problem is that Syria is simply in a very bad situation. Like Iraq, Syria adopted the Baath Party to run the country decades ago. Like Iraq, the socialist dictatorship of the Baath Party led to corruption and economic decline. This has made enemies of Syria’s neighbors, and the Syrian people. The Syrian Baath Party has run out of credit, and credibility. The bill is now due, and no one wants to pay.

Assad’s father Hafez al Assad was a classic “strongman” controlling the army and intelligence service with an iron fist while using an efficient and deadly secret police to stifle dissent and maintain control of the populace. His Soviet allies sold him modern weaponry while backing him diplomatically in his quest to use Lebanon as both a buffer state against Israel and a foward staging area to precipitate attacks on the Jewish homeland.

Hafez Assad was a player in the sometimes deadly game of middle east politics because he could stay one or two steps ahead of his adversaries in Beirut as well as Washington and Tel Aviv. He was sure handed in his dealings with other Arab states, especially his fellow Ba’athists in Iraq. And he was a survivor, realizing after the first Persian Gulf War that, in order to maintain his position, he would have to at least give the appearance of talking to Israel.

His son Bashar succeeded to the Presidency upon Hafez’s death in 2000. Bashar, an ophthalmologist by training, came to politics late. His older brother Basil, groomed by his father to succeed him, died in a car crash in 1994. Bashar, then, was thrust into the role of putative successor. After 6 years in the military, Bashar was “elected” by the Syrian parliment to the presidency.

Bashar has been caught flat footed by the reaction to what apparently was the Syrian assassination of Rafik Hariri, former Lebanese Prime Minister. First the US and EU and now even the Arab League and Russia are calling on Syrian troops to vacate Lebanon.

What makes this so dangerous for Bashar is that Syria is economically dependent on Lebanon. Nearly 10% of Syrians are employed in Lebanon as guest workers. Couple that with the illicit drug trade that brings much needed hard currency (plus influence bought by Bashar in the army) and you have something of an explosive situation for the Syrian President. In order to stay in power, he’s going to need to keep the army happy. But if Syria is forced to leave Lebanon, not only will this be a humiliating setback for the army, but Bashar will lose the Bekaa valley, the growing and distribution center for the hashish and opium Bashar uses to reward his favorites in the army and secret police. And the fate of Syria’s guest workers could precipitate a full-blown economic crisis that would cripple the country’s ability to support the terrorist networks of Hamas and Hezbollah, both headquartered in Damascus.

It remains to be seen whether Bashar has the experience and the ruthlessness to survive once his troops pull out of Lebanon. If the above excerpt on Syrian politics is accurate-if Bashar in fact has only nominal control of the army and the party-the withdrawal of Syrian troops could mean a death warrant.

Dictators don’t usually retire and get million dollar book contracts.

Cross-posted at Blogger News Network

UPDATE

The Saudi’s just joined the chorus for a Syrian pullout from Lebanon. This is bad news for Assad because Sauid Arabia has been one of Syria’s most reliable allies in the past.

Captain Ed is thinking along the same lines that I am above:

Their [the Saudi's] blunt demand to retreat from Syria only piles the pressure on Damascus, and if enough of it builds up, Assad may have to flee for his life as Syrian power brokers rethink their support for his regime.

Assad may not last the weekend if this keeps up.