According to this fellow, we’ll be at war with China in a few years:

The proposed anti-secession law, read out for the first time before the ceremonial National People’s Congress, does not specify what actions might invite a Chinese attack.

“If possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Wang Zhaoguo, deputy chairman of the congress’ Standing Committee, told the nearly 3,000 members gathered in the Great Hall of the People.

Beijing claims Taiwan, which split from China since 1949, as part of its territory. The communist mainland repeatedly has threatened to invade if Taiwan tries to make its independence permanent, and the new law does not impose any new conditions or make new threats. But it lays out for the first time legal requirements for military action.

(HT: Instapundit)

China has very quietly and without much notice made itself into an economic powerhouse. It will continue to grow as long as the communist party keeps its mitts off the economy, something that by no means is certain to happen. The reason is simple.

In order for China to keep growing, it’s going to need to reform. And the young technocrats running the communist party in China today are as fearful of political reform as the octogenarians who slaughtered thousands of innocents in Tienamien Square in 1989. Communism by its nature brooks no opposition. How can it when it sets itself up as the only authentic voice of the people? If it loses that it loses its legitimacy. Hence, the Chinese are soon to reach a crossroads where one path will necessarily lead to more freedom and the other leads to a crackdown.

Something like 800 million people are not enjoying the benefits of Chinese economic growth. That’s a pretty big cauldron to be bubbling below the surface. There has to be an outlet and the Chinese are betting on nationalistic fervor.

The author of this post, Mr. Dunn, believes that the 2008 Olympics to be held in Beijing may offer a perfect cover for Chinese aggression against Taiwan while whipping up nationalistic feeling at the same time:

The only question is when China will go. I think it will be on the eve of the 2008 Peking summer Olympics. China will have the security issue to cover mobilization and movement of military units. And everybody will assume China is using the attention as a coming out party to highlight their advances and their place in the sun. I think swallowing China under the nose of US and Japanese protection will be even better to demonstrate their power. Why else go on a crash building program for naval units?

Inside Taiwan, the move for independence may be gaining momentum. Like the American colonies of 200 years ago, Taipei is beginning to recognize that they’ve developed a culture and way of life separate and distinct from their cousins across the Straits. Any move by Beijing to annex the tiny island would meet fierce resistance. And that, of course, is where the United States comes in.

Our “one China” policy has allowed the US to walk a tightrope between satisfying our obligations to protect Taipei while not riling Beijing and forcing their hand over the indpendence issue. While we oppose independence for Taiwan, American policy is to sell the tiny country defensive weapons while at the same time giving it assurances that a Chinese military move to reunite with the mainland would be met with force. For more than 30 years, this policy worked well as Beijing was to weak to stand up to the US militarily. But now China has embarked on a crash naval building program that would seem to have one purpose: To give them the capability for amphibious landings necessary to conquer the little island nation.

Would such an invasion trigger a war? Most certainly yes. Not only our treaty obligations would require it but a successful Chinese takeover of Taiwan would massively impact the strategic situation in the entire far east. There’s no telling what an aggressive China would mean for Japan and our relations with Korea and other nations in Asia would be drastically affected. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan then must be prevented; even at the risk of war with another nuclear power.

Mr. Dunn has some suggestions:

The best way to avoid this (nuclear exchange with China) is to make Taiwan strong enough to hold the line while US and Japanese forces rush to repel a Chinese invasion. If China knows this, they may hold off in the hope that the future will change the strategic situation in their favor.

The second best way to avoid the escalation problem is to win quickly, if the Chinese delude themselves into thinking the US and/or Japan will not defend Taiwan and that the Taiwanese cannot resist. Cripple the first wave; crush the paratroopers and infantry that come across the beach; interdict the follow-up waves with naval and air power; and hit the ports of embarkation. Do all this and make sure Taiwan can throw the Chinese back into the sea so the war ends quickly

Taiwan is in trouble. If China is really seeking to resolve it’s problem with Taipei, it may prove to be the most dangerous move since Kruschev sent missiles to Cuba in 1963.

UPDATE:

Glen Anderson has updated his post with this:

Many readers are skeptical of Dunn’s analysis, but reader Jim Satterfield isn’t:

Think on this possible scenario. The Chinese consider it a very minor possibility that we would do anything to defend Taiwan. But just to cover their bases they won’t move until we represent a small enough portion of their foreign trade to where they think they can take the hit by appealing to nationalism. First they will launch a massive distraction by nationalizing every American company in China and simultaneously flooding the world currency markets with their dollar reserves while stopping the acquisition of dollars. The resultant economic crash in the U.S. will pretty much guarantee that there won’t be any military action taken except if America was to be attacked directly. Tyrants full of themselves and desirous of retaking what they view as their wayward territory won’t necessarily stop long enough to think through the long term economic repercussions even to themselves.

I believe this scenario much less likely than a Chinese reaction to a move towards independence by Taipei. Picking up the pieces after a war with the US would be easier if China didn’t burn their bridges as they would with nationalization of American businesses and initiating economic armageddon by dumping their dollars.

A Sino-American war would represent a failure of their policy. Their goal is to achieve unity with Taipei without resorting to force of arms. But, their naval buildup may signal that they’re ready to challenge US-Japanese hegemony in the far east. Having the capability to invade will also change the strategic balance.

Any way you look at it, we’re in for a some rough times with China over the next decade.