LEBANON: HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL
They weren’t expecting a huge crowd in downtown Lebanon yesterday to mark the one year anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The demonstration organizers averred that they would have been pleased if 50,000 Lebanese citizens had marched for democracy and justice - justice for the perpetrators of the assassination who to this day are walking free, beyond the reach of the Lebanese courts or any international tribunal. This was one of the reasons given by the March 14 Forces who organized the demonstration as to why the turnout would probably be so disappointing.
As it played out, nearly 1 million Lebanese poured into Martyr’s Square to both remember the beloved former Prime Minister and show their support for democracy, independence, and bringing Hariri’s killers to justice.
It was spectacular proof that the forces for democratic change who pulled off the astonishing feat of forging a broad based coalition that swept to victory in the Parliamentary elections last summer still have a deep wellspring of support among the people of this tragic, divided land.
But the demonstration also highlighted the monumental problems still facing the country’s leaders as they seek to overcome decades of bloodshed, hate, and suspicion and achieve stable, democratic government free from foreign influence.
Not all of Lebanon was represented at the demonstration in Martyr’s Square. The forces of Hizballah, the Amal Militia, and Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement held their own, separate remembrances honoring Hariri. And herein lie the seeds of Lebanon’s weakness as well as the potential for disaster. Despite all the uplifting rhetoric, Lebanon is still a country divided not just by religion but also by forces with dual loyalties to Beirut and Damascus. It is a country where many if not most of its citizens sees itself at war with the State of Israel. And it is a country where the very idea of nationhood is tied up in a complex web of expectations and dreams that vary from group to group, region to region, and sect to sect.
The number one problem facing Lebanon today is the same problem it has faced for more than a quarter century; the pervasive and pernicious influence of Syria on the everyday affairs of the nation. Like a parasite that feeds off its host, Syria has invaded the nervous system of Lebanon and has spread its tentacles into every corner of society. Simply getting rid of the Syrian army and the outward accoutrements of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s secret police did not solve the problem. Like removing a leech from the body and not removing the head, Syria’s influence on the politics, the economy, and the security services of Lebanon remains to poison the blood and sicken the host.
There are no easy solutions to the problem of Syrian influence. That’s because groups like Hizballah, despite protestations to the contrary by their leader Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, rely on Syria for weapons and as a conduit for aid from their allies in Tehran. On this day honoring the slain former Prime Minister, Nasrallah highlighted what he says Hariri told him; that “Lebanon cannot be ruled from Damascus nor can it be ruled against Damascus.” He further recalled that Hariri had believed that Lebanon was in a state of war with Israel, regardless of whether actual clashes took place.
Those clashes are in fact taking place with Israel as “The Resistance” (as Hizballah insists on calling itself) continues to launch attacks in the disputed Shebaa Farms region. Israel still patrols the Farms, using it as a buffer region to keep the terrorists from killing innocent civilians. It is a major bone of contention between Lebanon and Israel and as long as Hizballah’s 10,000 militiamen are armed with rockets, Israel will refuse to give it up.
In this vicious circle of violence, Hizballah uses Israel’s presence on Lebanese territory as an excuse to keep its weapons despite a UN Resolution (1559) calling for the group to disarm. Recently, the issue of Hizballah’s weapons became a domestic political football as the terrorist group, along with their religious allies, boycotted Lebanese cabinet meetings, demanding that instead of being called a “militia” which would have necessitated their disarmament, they be referred to as “The Resistance.”
For nearly three months, the cabinet was crippled as crucial business had to be deferred. Finally, earlier this month, a compromise was brokered by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and the Shiite parties returned to the table. But the lesson was clear; Hizballah must be reckoned with as a political force as well as a military one. The hard fact is that Hizballah has 26 members who have been elected to parliament. And their influence over large swaths of the country is undeniable. How to separate Hizballah from their weapons without tearing the country apart will be the number one challenge facing the government of Lebanon for the foreseeable future.
For within that issue lies so many of Lebanon’s internal problems. Secularization versus Islamic law. War or peace with Israel. Politics practiced with guns or words. And unity versus a kind of tribalism that would guarantee a weak, divided Lebanon constantly being pulled this way or that by its more powerful neighbors in Damascus and Tel Aviv.
As far as unity is concerned, Hizballah isn’t the only headache facing the country’s political leaders. There is also the out sized personality and political wild card represented by the Free Patriotic Movement’s Michel Aoun.
A former Prime Minister, the charismatic Aoun recently returned from exile and has stirred up a witches brew of political trouble. Initially participating in the coalition of anti-Syrian parties that kicked Assad’s army out of the country, he left the coalition in a huff when it became apparent he would not play a leading role. In what has become a hallmark of his career, he then flipped and joined pro-Syrian parties in a coalition during the round of elections last summer. He has since been angling for the Presidency, campaigning to replace what most observers agree is a Syrian puppet Emil Lahoud in that office.
The real problem is the Maronite Auon’s unnatural alliance with the Shiites in Hizballah. If Aoun had agreed to his reduced role in the March 14 Forces, Hizballah may have been isolated and been forced to accede to both UN Resolutions and a reduced role in politics. As it is, Aoun’s personal ambition for the Presidency has complicated matters enormously and it remains to be seen even if he is named President, whether he will be able to unite the factions and strengthen the country.
Another political problem is the coalition itself. It is under stress from all sides as the peace brokered prior to last summer’s elections is fraying around the edges. There simply is no dominant personality for all sides to rally around and look to for leadership. Rafiq Hariri’s son Saad could emerge as that leader except that President Assad of Syria realizes that also. Hariri’s security in Lebanon has become so problematic that for the last six months he has lived in self-imposed exile.
In a stirring speech at the demonstration yesterday, the young Hariri issued a clear call for unity:
We meet here today in March 14 square, there are no Muslims and there are no Christians, there are only Lebanese screaming ‘Lebanon first.” There is no place amongst us for criminals … there is no place among us for the symbols of the security apparatus.”
One of those symbols was the target of the crowd’s wrath yesterday; President Emil Lahoud. It is widely believed that Lahoud had a hand in the assassination of the elder Hariri as well as other high profile killings that occurred last summer including a popular anti-Syrian journalist. In fact, the UN Commission set up to investigate the Hariri assassination and headed up by prosecutor Detlev Mehlis discovered calls made by a known conspirator in the assassination to Lahoud’s office both immediately before and after the killing. But Lahoud is a powerful politician with his own base of support. His refusal to resign continues to complicate the politics of reconciliation that many observers believe is vitally necessary if Lebanon is to survive and prosper.
Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri has called for a Commission of National Dialog which will bring together all segments of Lebanese society in an effort to come to grips with the numerous problems that weigh so heavily on the future of this divided land. Perhaps the energy and hope contained in the one million beating hearts who demonstrated in the square yesterday will be enough to motivate Lebanon’s leaders to take advantage of that opportunity for dialog and redouble their efforts to achieve unity.
It’s clear that the people haven’t given up hope. It remains to be seen whether the country’s leaders can rise above their differences - both petty and pervasive - in order to fulfill the dream of a Lebanon at peace with itself and the world.