Can you stand one more “Where we stand” post on Iraq?

Your humble host almost decided not to do such a post for several reasons. After all, it is the height of hubris to believe that lil’ ole me would have anything original or insightful to say about matters of war and peace. And why should my opinion be more perceptive or matter more than the any other internet pundit?

I am a reasonably intelligent human being who spends 8-10 hours a day on the internet reading for the most part everything I can on the situation in Iraq. My sources are left, right, government, anti-government, Middle East media, American MSM, former government officials, Iraqi bloggers, and dozens of other sites who have proved themselves if not non-partisan then at least honest in their assessment of the situation.

I believe that anyone who says that Iraq is a lost cause is dead wrong. I also believe that anyone who says things are going reasonably well is also incorrect. The situation in Iraq today is balanced on a knife’s edge. There are some signs that are encouraging. Many more are not. In the end, there is little more the US military can do combat wise to materially affect the outcome. From here on out, it’s up to the Iraqis.

The problems with the Iraqi security services are daunting. Not only are most units not ready to take over without American back-up, but there are signs that both the NCO’s and officers are not taking to their responsibilities in such a way as to inspire confidence of either the Americans or the Iraqi soldiers serving under them. The good news is that this is slowly changing for the better as unit cohesion improves and officers gain experience in leading their men in the field. It is impossible to say at this point when these units will be able to stand on their own. The best guess of our military is 2 years.

As for the police, it is an entirely different story. There are disheartening signs that the militias have infiltrated the police and are acting independently of their local commanders, answering instead to either their militia leaders or directly to the Interior Ministry which is controlled by an ex leader of the Badr Brigade Bayan Jabr. There is some anecdotal evidence that these police units that are dominated by one of the many Shia militias are helping in the massacre of Sunni civilians. This could be misinformation being put out by al Qaeda propaganda cadres as was the case in the immediate aftermath of the bombing of the Shrine in Samarra. But such reports are troubling nonetheless.

The good news is that the situation is redeemable. The political factions have just brokered an agreement to create a National Security Council to oversee the army and police. It will be Shia dominated but – and there are going to be a lot of “buts” when talking about Iraq – the Sunnis, the Kurds, and the secular parties will, if they band together, be able to outvote the Shiites.

Something similar is going on in Parliament. One of the reasons for the delay in convening the legislative body is that the Shiite choice for Prime Minister, current interim Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafari, is unacceptable to all the non-Shiite factions and have promised to vote him down if his name is put forward. This is extraordinarily encouraging in that it shows that on the big questions facing the legislature, the Sunnis, Kurds, and secularists are capable of acting together to outvote the Shiites.

The Shiites themselves are fractured with nationalists like Sistani at odds with fundamentalists allied with Iran like Muqtada al-Sadr. But as the violence continues (egged on partly by al-Sadr’s Mehdi militia) Sistani’s influence wanes. The Americans have rightly given Sistani a wide berth trying not to make it appear that he is “our man” as much as we would like him to succeed. But the clock is ticking on Sistani who is old and tired and he may be losing the respect of the very people who Iraq needs to find a way through to peace.

The insurgency is alive but has never been very organized which makes it that much harder to stamp out. Much of the violence directed against Americans comes at the hands of small cells of rebels acting with only the loosest connection to any unified whole. Tribal based rather than ideological or sectarian, there is a chance that the new government could negotiate to bring them into the political process. We probably won’t like the amnesty program that will allow the killers of American soldiers a free ride but it will be one of the costs of a peaceful, stable Iraq.

The militias are the real sticking point. As it stands now, it is still possible to disband them and integrate their members into the army and police with a minimum of friction. But the longer the militias are patrolling the streets, manning checkpoints, carrying out revenge killings, and working to make things worse rather than better, the less likely the country can avoid a bloody civil war. Only time will tell the story here. And no one is looking at their watch.

Of course, all this boils down to improving the security situation. Which won’t happen until the army improves. Which won’t happen until the political situation improves. Which won’t happen until the militias are reigned in. Which won’t happen until the security situation improves.

If it sounds like all depends on improving the safety of people in Baghdad and the Sunni Triangle, you’re correct. That has always been the key. And all the reconstruction and school building and hospital stocking and neighborhood outreach put together will be meaningless unless that one disheartening problem can be dramatically changed.