Right Wing Nut House

Although the US and France have agreed on the outline of a “cessation of hostilities” between Israel and Hizbullah, the terrorist group has indicated it will not abide by its provisions:

The United States and France agreed Saturday on a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that calls for a halt to the fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, but would allow Israel to defend itself if attacked.

The draft, sent to the entire Security Council for consideration, “calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations.”

Israel, backed by the U.S., has insisted it must have the right to respond if Hezbollah launches missiles against it. France and many other nations had demanded an immediate halt to the fighting without conditions as a way to push the region back toward stability.

[snip]

Illustrating the difficulty ahead in getting the sides to agree to a cease-fire, Mohammed Fneish, a Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Cabinet, said after the announcement that his group would stop fighting, but only if Israel removed all its troops from Lebanon. The draft resolution makes no such demand.

“If they stay, we will not abide by it,” he told reporters.

Israel has said it wants to continue fighting for up to two more weeks to seriously diminish Hezbollah’s military capability.

Two points to keep in mind. First, apparently Nasrallah is not much of a gambler. He doesn’t know when to quit while he’s ahead (at least in the eyes of the Arab street). The fact that his fighters are now trapped behind the barrier of the Litani River facing 10,000 Israeli soldiers means that if he wants to keep fighting, his men will keep dying.

Second, this will put the onus for the fighting even more on Hizbullah. No more nonsense from Siniora about his noble “resistance” fighting the invader. Nasrallah could have taken the deal and Israel would have quit. Instead, if the Hiz start throwing more rockets into Israel, the IAF will have a green light to continue their own destruction of Hizbullah infrastructure.

Don’t expect that second resolution anytime soon. In fact, if Nasrallah keeps fighting and Israel keeps bombing, there’s no reason to believe the international force will materialize in the near future. No one wants their soldiers walking into a free fire zone.

One other interesting provision of the resolution is an arms embargo against Lebanon which prevents Syria and Iran from resupplying their Hizbullah stooges. Not that it will matter much as far as Hizbullah’s rockets are concerned since it is estimated they still have about half of the 10,000 they started the war with. But in small arms like anti-tank weapons and the like? If the war goes much longer with no way to resupply the Hiz fighters trapped in the south, it may mean that this last phase of the war will go much more swiftly for the IDF.

The rest of the resolution is a rehash of 1559:

Other principles spelled out in the resolution include the disarmament of Hezbollah; the creation of a buffer zone from the U.N.-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon up to the Litani River, which is about 20 miles north of the frontier; and the delineation of Lebanon’s borders, especially in the disputed Chebaa Farms area.

The resolution would call for the current U.N. force in Lebanon, known by its acronym UNIFIL, to monitor the cessation in fighting. Once Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the series of principles, the Security Council would then authorize a new peacekeeping force for the region.

Does the UN believe that the more times it passes the same resolution, the greater the chance that the thugs of the world will finally abide by it?

How many similar resolutions did this useless collection of testosteroneless diplomats pass telling Saddam to disarm, to obey other resolutions, to stop firing on our planes, to act like a responsible member of the world community?

What good does it do to continue to tell these thugs the same thing over and over and then watch as they thumb their nose at you and continue on their merry way? It is not just an exercise in futility, it is an exercise in fantasy. The diplomats at the UN and those who actually believe they have any relevance whatsoever in the real world are not serious people. They are fantasists. Only when the great powers put their might and prestige behind anything the UN decides does the rest of the world actually take what that body does with any seriousness at all.

The war will go on. And before it’s over, Nasrallah will be wishing he took what the UN is offering today.

ROUNDUP

Ed Morrissey agrees that the onus for the fighting now devolves to Hizbullah if the war continues.

Pamela is not optimistic in the slightest and is mad as a hornet.

Richard Fernandez points out the nuance that I did yesterday; the difference between a “full cessation of hostilities” and “immediate cessation ” of the fighting. We win. France loses.

Mac points out that Bolton triumphed at the UN and makes his critics look silly.

Dave Shuler gives us a tour d’horizon of the Middle East.

Dan Riehl:

Pardon me if I don’t watch it, I believe I’ve seen this movie before. The UN couldn’t stop arms sales into Iraq and there was even more support for those resolutions. All this is is a simple re-hash of previously passed resolutions. If the UN had enforced those in the first place, this war would never have taken place.

James Joyner:

It’s far from clear how meaningful this will be, presuming it passes the full Council. Hezbollah will certainly continue to continue firing rockets into Israel and allow Israel to continue to kill Lebanese civilians so long as it is to their operational advantage.