It appears that Prime Minister Olmert is going to shoot for an outright victory against Hizbullah (if that is possible) by authorizing the IDF to begin a massive incursion into southern Lebanon:
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved early Tuesday widening the ground offensive in Lebanon and rejected a cease-fire until an international force is in place, a participant in the meeting said.
Airstrikes in Lebanon would resume “in full force” after the 48-hour suspension expires in another day, said the participant, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters. He said there was no deadline for the offensive, though the United Nations Security Council is expected to debate a resolution this week about a cease-fire.
Thousands of army reserves have been called up in recent days in advance of the decision, which is expected to lead to sending more troops into the border area. Israeli leaders have said they want to carve out a zone about 1 mile wide that would be free of Hezbollah emplacements.
Israeli forces have been operating in two segments of south Lebanon, sweeping through villages, fighting Hezbollah gunmen and leaving considerable destruction behind.
The participant said the international force must have the ability to intervene with force if necessary to keep Hezbollah guerrillas from returning to the border area.
And there is a definite outline of what it will take before the Israelis are willing to agree to a cease fire:
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday told British Prime Minister Tony Blair that as soon as an international force deploys along the Israel-Lebanon and Lebanon-Syria borders, “it will be possible to implement a cease-fire.”
Also Monday, government and defense officials said that Israel will release two Lebanese prisoners in return for the two soldiers abducted by Hezbollah as part of a cease-fire agreement.
The sources added that the UN Security Council would call for a cease-fire in Lebanon on Friday, and it could take effect as early as Saturday.
Alternatively, the fighting might continue for a few more days.
In essence, here are Israel’s terms:
* No immediate cease fire.
* Israel will carry out offensive operations until an international force is in place to act as a buffer between Israel and both Hizbullah and Syria.
* Israel will exchange two Lebanese for the two IDF men being held by Hizbullah. No mass release of Lebanese prisoners thus denying Nasrallah a propaganda victory.
* The international force must be able to fire back if Hizbullah resists being disarmed or if they try to infiltrate back into southern Lebanon.
* No wide ranging political settlement with Lebanon that takes into account the “return” of the Shebaa Farms. No discussion of war compensation to Lebanon prior to the cease fire.
In short, Olmert and his cabinet are rejecting every single point made by Hassan Nasrallah who has demanded an immediate cease fire by Israel, a release of thousands of Lebanese being held in Israeli prisons, no international force (only an augment to UNIFIL), and the Lebanese government will be in charge of disarming Hizbullah only after a complete settlement between Israel and Lebanon is reached including the return of Shebaa.
The two sides couldn’t be farther apart.
Never fear. France is coming to the rescue of the Iranians, Syrians, and Hizbullah. If it wasn’t so goddamned predictable and serious, it might be fodder for a stand up comedy routine. France wants no part of any international force that has the slightest chance of incurring any casualties whatsoever. In fact, like Nasrallah, the French want all the “i’s” crossed and “t’s” dotted before they step foot one in Lebanon:
Yet as her plane made its way across the Atlantic, the fissures between the United States and its allies widened at the United Nations, where a meeting to craft plans for the international force was postponed after France declared it pointless without a political settlement between Israel and Lebanon.
“You know, France is in favor of setting up an international force to implement . . . a political settlement,” Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sablière said at the United Nations on Monday. “So it is important to have this political settlement before having the force deployed. And it is very difficult, we think — premature at least — to have such a meeting.”
And Rice may have scored something of a coup as she apparently has bypassed the French and forged a shaky consensus on the outlines of a cease fire with other Security Council members:
The United States will move for a resolution centered on three parts. The first is a cease-fire. The second is a set of political principles or framework for a long-term settlement to ensure that the flashpoints are eliminated so that fighting does not erupt in the weeks, months or years ahead, Rice said. The third will outline the sensitive mandate for the new “international stabilization force,” which will back up the Lebanese army as it spreads government authority throughout Lebanon, prevents the import of any new weapons to rearm Hezbollah, and keeps the peace.
The emerging consensus includes agreement on several points, Rice said. All armed groups would be prohibited in the zone where the international force is deployed. An international arms embargo, she said, must ensure that the only weapons allowed into Lebanon must be for the Lebanese government or the stabilization force.
No foreign troops except the stabilization force would be allowed in Lebanon. The Lebanese government and army would assume responsibility for disarming militias, with the “appropriate” assistance by the stabilization force, Rice said. Israel and Lebanon would fully accept the border as defined by the so-called Blue Line — a potentially contentious issue that involves the disputed Shebaa Farms area.
Meanwhile, Olmert gets another chance. The bombing pause may turn out to have been a godsend for the Israelis in that it has allowed international tempers to cool slightly while giving civilians in the south a chance to flee - something Hizbullah was preventing by setting up roadblocks:
Taking advantage of the abatement in bombing, Lebanese fled north Monday, and U.N. and other relief organizations accelerated the delivery of humanitarian supplies to the south Lebanon hills, where an estimated 750,000 people have been displaced by Israeli bombing over the last three weeks.
Fewer civilians means fewer propaganda points scored by Hizbullah once the Israelis begin to move. Those civilians are being evacuated by UN agencies and the Red Cross so Hizbullah can’t interfere:
Intense clashes continued well into Tuesday afternoon between IDF troops and Hizbullah guerrillas in the southern Lebanese town of Ayta a-Shab.
A total of five brigades were operating in the region and heavy gunfights were reported involving light machine guns and rockets.
The IDF said that the guerrillas fired anti-tank rockets at troops from a house in the town.
Meanwhile, the IDF distributed flyers, urging residents in the region north of the Litani River to leave their homes and head northward.
It is uncertain how far this incursion will go. If the IAF is dropping leaflets telling residents north of the Litani River to flee, that would mean a penetration of at least 15 miles - a good start but hardly what is needed.
If, as expected, Hizbullah’s crack military cadres stand and fight, there is every reason to believe that the Israelis will kill anyone who doesn’t run. Indeed, at this point, the “legend” of Hizbullah that has been advanced in this country regarding their “fighting abilities” would mean that any retreat by the terrorists would diminish their standing in the eyes of the world. For when you think about it, the “heroic” nature of Hizbullah is pretty pathetic. They are being lionized not because they are defeating the Israelis on the battlefield (in fact, they are getting slaughtered) but because they are not wetting their pants and running or immediately surrendering as other Arab armies have done.
Truly nauseating. The Israelis believe they have killed at least 200 of these crack Hizbullah troops while losing 25 soldiers themselves. Some estimates place the number closer to 400 Hizbullah fighters killed. If so, there is at least an 8-1 and perhaps as much as a 16-1 Israeli advantage - hardly the stuff of legend except for those desperate to build up the terrorists into something they aren’t; a match for the IDF on the battlefield.
This piece in today’s Haaretz sums up Olmert’s second chance at getting it right and committing more ground troops to do the job:
Olmert wants to take another stab at a decisive conclusion before the UN Security Council blows the final whistle. That’s why he convened the cabinet on Monday to approve a wide-scale ground operation targeting villages used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Olmert is fighting the battle over public opinion, both at home and abroad. He wants people to see the war as a victory, not a draw. It was this attitude that led Olmert to tell a conference of mayors on Monday that the operation is continuing despite the unfortunate deaths of dozens of Lebanese civilians in Qana Sunday.
“Israel is continuing to fight,” the prime minister said. One can imagine the slogan as part of a commercial for a bank, on billboards or car bumpers. “There is no cease-fire, and there will be no cease-fire in the upcoming days,” Olmert promised to the cheers of mayors in attendance. Conference participants made it clear they want the operation to continue.
With the people behind him for the moment, Olmert is rolling the dice once again, hoping he can roll up Hizbullah and punish them enough before the international community moves forcefully to stop him.
It is imperative that he succeed. Any other outcome is unthinkable.
UPDATE:
LFG reports that in Qana, they have pulled 28 bodies from the rubble of the building. The Lebanese government said 57 were killed, 36 children. Some published reports had the number as high as 60.
Even if it is “only” 28, that is still a tragic and significant loss of life. But I’m sure you’d agree it doesn’t sound as awful as 57 nor does has there been any explanation yet from anyone why the building collapsed 8 hours after the bomb hit.
Maybe instead of swallowing all the Hizbullah propaganda, our media could like, you know, confirm the facts before publishing?
Fat chance…