Right Wing Nut House

10/10/2006

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL FOR GOP - FOR 2008

Filed under: Politics — Rick Moran @ 2:47 pm

One can imagine the almost unrestrained glee being exhibited at the editorial meetings of the WaPo, the Times, and other more liberal newspapers as the various in-house organs for the Democratic party gear up for the final push that will guarantee victory for their clients in November.

The Republicans in the meantime, celebrating Christmas early by bearing gifts for their foes of scandal and stupidity, careen toward a disaster of mid-epic proportions:

Republican campaign officials said yesterday that they expect to lose at least seven House seats and as many as 30 in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, as a result of sustained violence in Iraq and the page scandal involving former GOP representative Mark Foley.

Democrats need to pick up 15 seats in the election to take back control of the House after more than a decade of GOP leadership. Two weeks of virtually nonstop controversy over President Bush’s war policy and House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert’s handling of the page scandal have forced party leaders to recalculate their vulnerability and placed a growing number of Republican incumbents and open seats at much greater risk.

GOP officials are urging lawmakers to focus exclusively on local issues and leave it to party leaders to mitigate the Foley controversy by accusing Democrats of trying to politicize it. At the same time, the White House plans to amplify national security issues, especially the threat of terrorism, after North Korea’s reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy during the final month of the campaign. These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease.

Even 30 seats wouldn’t be a cataclysmic loss. Give the GOP a chance to pick up one or two seats themselves and the Dems would settle for a majority in the House of a dozen or so. And most of those will be in GOP leaning districts making those freshmen congressmen ripe pickings for 2008.

The only problem is that if the worst case number is 30 seats today, what will it be in a month? I’ll go with political prognosticator Charlie Cook who said a while back that if second tier GOP targets are in play - Republicans who won with 57% of the vote or less in the last off year election - then the number of vulnerable congressmen could reach into the 70’s. Needless to say, a loss of 50-70 seats would pretty much indicate a complete repudiation of the Republican party and a probable decade long slog for the GOP back to the top.

But even a blowout like the one scenarioed above could be squandered by a Democratic leadership and, more importantly, a net community absolutely ravenous for Republican skin and scalp. And while I hope they do go after the corruption, the cronyism, the political favoritism, and the who venial mess on the Hill, the way they do it will determine whether or not the American people will turn on them in disgust and put a severely chastened Republican party back on top in 2008.

Blowback from the culture of investigation on Clinton the late 1990’s almost cost the GOP in ‘98 and 2000 the gains they made in 1994. And the Special Prosecutor binge that Republicans went on got to be expensive, tiresome, and an easy political mark for the Democrats to charge the GOP with frivolity.

Special Prosecutors are one thing. John Conyers armed with every conspiracy theory this side of Area 51 is something totally different.

While there is little doubt that Democrats will seek to impeach the President, having the Congressman from Michigan (who claims to have already conducted his own “investigation” and found Bush guilty) trot out the “Bush lied, people died” battle cry may satisfy the rabid netsharks who seek the feeding frenzy a grand old Bush bashing party that would publicize most of their more outrageously ignorant and exaggerated charges. But it won’t sway any Republicans whatsoever. This would doom impeachment to the same kind of partisan show that the Clinton extravaganza ended up being.

A word of advice to my friends on the left; settle for the truth. In many investigations, that will probably be bad enough to shame the Administration but fall short of impeachable actions. To cheer on the Conyers wing of the party whose conspiratorial mind set will embarrass the Democrats could end up biting the Democrats in the behind in 2008.

I plan on watching the whole thing - the whole bloody mess - with one eye on history and another on 2008. And since there is little doubt that the netnuts will claim full credit for the Democratic victory and be the driving force behind the whole investigatory side show, I have little doubt that Democrats will give GOP and independent voters ample reason to kick the kooks out of office in 2008.

9 Comments

  1. Yes, it looks good for us Democratics. Two things might screw it up though: 1) an October Surprise attack on Iran and 2) massive election fraud. Neither can be ruled out but I am cautiously optimistic.

    Comment by Gary Buell — 10/10/2006 @ 3:01 pm

  2. I still see GOP control of both house and senate–modest losses in both. The American public is not stupid.

    Comment by nikkolai — 10/10/2006 @ 3:40 pm

  3. Nikkolai can I have some of whatever you’re smoking?

    Comment by Gary Buell — 10/10/2006 @ 3:59 pm

  4. Democrats will not impeach Bush. Pelosi has stated this. What will happen is Democrats will use subpoenas to get to bottom of the Abramoff scandal, Iraq contracts, etc. Oversight will be job one. And good riddance to this House of inept and corrupt leaders.

    Comment by scottf — 10/10/2006 @ 5:06 pm

  5. If Republican RINOism and ineptitude have made a big year for Dems inevitable, better 2006 than 2008.

    Comment by Van Helsing — 10/10/2006 @ 9:26 pm

  6. Denny ‘The Coach’ Hastert and his bunch of cronies deserve to lose their jobs and kicked out of Congress immediately. Watching this XXL bumbling idiot is an embarrassment. How he came to be second in line to the President is a national disgrace.

    Comment by scottf — 10/10/2006 @ 10:29 pm

  7. Rick-this is an overly gloomy scenario. The Republicans may lose the House but the losses will be modest. I actually hope the Republicans lose the Senate. I am a supporter of John Bolten and watched the hearings on his confirmation a year ago. The Republicans put on a sorry performance that convinced me they prefer and feel more comfortable being in the minority.

    However, I detest the media, absolutely detest them. The international left has merely subcontracted out their agenda to the inept Democrats. Others will too. So when I vote on November 7 I will be voting to deny the sneering, anti-American international left a victory. That’s who I am voting against. The AP is particulary disgusting, they are more a cheerleading squad than a respectable, objective newswire service.

    Comment by Kate — 10/11/2006 @ 4:15 am

  8. There is an age-old axiom in sales (and politics) of “Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.” The MSM is hell bent to annoint the Dems as having already won. The Dem’s beleive that as well. But, the actual election is a month away. They’re already finding that the Foley thing will make the GOP base come out more, instead of keeping them home as was the plan. Polls on individual GOP candidates show gains or gaps closing. The “November Surprise” may even find the GOP EXTENDING their majority. I would not be surprised to find a MSM story in the next few weeks about how the Dem’s may not win, but are closing the gap; that even tho they won’t win either house, they’ll pick up a few more seats, and better to lose now to trumpet more “GOP failues” in 2008. So, don’t uncork the champagne yet, cuz the Fat Lady hasn’t sung!

    Comment by Bruce — 10/11/2006 @ 4:07 pm

  9. It may be a good thing for us to lose in 06 cuz you can bet your ass we’ll get em all back and some in 08.
    Just close your eyes, nancy polosi, john conyers, henry waxmann, charlie rangle, its enough to make you have more than a NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET. Thank God the tax cuts are good for 10 more years and the moonbats will show all just what their leadership style will be like …. osama is lying in his cave on his prayer rug laughing it up while watching cnn and keith olbermann.

    Comment by Drewsmom — 10/11/2006 @ 5:10 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Powered by WordPress