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5:45 PM - Richard Baehr of The American Thinker starts us off (via email):

First Senate exit polls.

Remember these are usually off by at least 5 points in most cases, more early in day.

This tells me Missouri is probably OK, and Montana, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia will be close (virginia closest). Pa. and Ohio gone (no surprise). In 2004, first exit poll showed Kerry up 18% in Pennsylvania, and he won state by 2%. If these were actually accurate, then we need to win Missouri to get to 50-50.

Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)

Republicans leading:

Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)

Also: Exit polls do not include any absentee or early voting, in which GOP tends to lead. National review says add 7 in each case, not 5. No way of knowing. Dangers of exit polling.

6:00 PM - How about a splash of cold water to start off the night? Allah reports:

Fox is reporting that Hastert’s office has warned House Republicans to expect losses of up to 30 seats

EARLY RETURNS IN IN/KY:

Souder and Chocola (IN) ahead. Hostettler (IN) getting creamed. Nothup (KY) and Sodrel(IN) close.

6:30 PM - Polls close in Ohio except 16 polling places in Cayauga County (Cleveland) that will stay open 90 minutes due to problems voting earlier in the day. This is legitimate so no grumbling please.

Souder, Chocola, Sodrel in the lead. Nothup down a couple of hundred votes. Hostettler is heading for the big Hoosier Dome in the sky.

Allen (VA) ahead in early voting. That will tighten considerably.

The Corner reporting that Steele camp worried about low turnout in Prince Georges County - Washington suburb and a place where a lot of blacks were expected to crossover for him.

QUESTION: If the exit polls are off dramatically and the Dems still win, will they try and convince people that Republicans hacked the voting machines but didn’t steal enough votes to win?

6:45 - Here are the Exit Polls posted by CNN - for what its worth.

Pollster.Com is liveblogging the election. Lots of numbers. Good analysis. Too close to call everywhere.

With about 75% of precincts reporting, Anne Nothup is down about 2,00 votes.

Chocola (IN) down 59-41. Don’t panic. Donnelly’s huge surge had to be results coming in from South Bend and Mishawaka - heavily Dem strongholds. Chocola will come back when results from other Rep urban centers come in.

7:00 PM - Ellsworth called in Hostettler race. Dems need 14 for control.

Allen - Webb in virtual dead heat with 25% of precincts reporting. And there it will stay for the rest of the night.

Bass (NH) could be next Republican to be unseated. He’s down big with 25% of the vote counted.

7:15 PM - CNN has a neat page to follow results. I’m going to be using it more as the night goes on because the crawl on Fox News is so damn slow.

Jim Hoft reports turnout extremely high in Missouri. Fox News said earlier that turnout in Montana was “ridiculously” high.

Michael Barone has some very bad news. Chocola is running way, way behind his totals from St. Joseph County (South Bend) and also running worse in two other counties he carried 2 years ago. Prediction: Chocola is toast.

7:30 PM - CBS has called PA for Casey and Ohio for Brown. It’s going to be a long night.

Pollster.Com:

Ok, here’s another one. Extrapolate from the vote by gender tabulation now available on CNN and you get a 16 point lead for Democrat Bob Casey (58% to 42%). CBS has apparently called both Pennsylvania and Ohio for the Democrats, although the other networks I’ve been monitoring have not. This should tell us something important: The analysts are being very cautious about calling the result on exit polls alone. And these are states with candidates with double digit leads in the estimates applied to the CNN crosstabulations. For the states with closer margins, those exit polls aren’t telling us much.

Fox calls Menendez in NJ.

7:45 PM - How about a little good news? Mac Collins in GA 8 is in a dead heat with Dem incumbent Jim Marshall with about 20% counted.

Looks like an uphill battle for Anne Nothup in KY. She’s down about 3,000 votes with 88% reporting.

Hey! “Foley” (Joe Negron) is ahead in Florida with 25% of the vote counted.

8:00 PM - Here’s where we stand…

Senate - +2 Dems
House - +1 Dems

IN - Hostettler gone. Chocola coming back but still trailing by 4. Sodrel locked in tight race.

KY - Nothup almost out of votes and trailing by about 3,000.

NC - Charlie Taylor trailing slightly to Heath Schuler.

NH - Bass coming back but still behind

TN - Corker looks solid. Will be called in the next half hour.

CT- Lieberman ahead by 5

VA - Allen still slightly ahead

Taking a dinner break - back at 8:30.

FOX CALLS MD FOR CARDIN! WITH THREE FRICKING PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN? OH WELL, IT’S THEIR ASS…

And that sound you just heard? That was the collective thud of the netnuts as their heads hit the floor after hearing the news that Fox has called CT for Lieberman.

CHOCOLA OUT IN INDIANA. NOTHUP IN KY. DEMS NOW +3 IN THE HOUSE.

LINCOLN CHAFFEE WILL NOT HAVE TO PRETEND TO BE A REPUBLICAN ANYMORE. IT’S WHITEHOUSE IN RHODE ISLAND. DEMS +3 IN THE SENATE.

Not looking good for the House at this point. Charlie Taylor in NC appears to be going down to defeat. And The Corner is reporting that Rep Jeb Bradley in NH may be in trouble with an anti-war candidate. Bradley wasn’t even considered in danger.

8:45 pm - Pollster.Com:

Gary Kilbride has a very good catch in the comments. The Missouri exit poll is up on CNN. Those who decided in the last three days (who were 10% of all voters) went for McCaskill 57% to 38%. Earlier decideds split nearly evenly with 50% for McCaskill, 49% for Talent. The overall margin in the tabulation is far, far too close to tell us who will win, but given how close the pre-election poll looked, a late break if real would be decisive for McCaskill.

This is in line what these fellows had been saying for the last 48 hours - that there was a slight Dem surge in the last 48 hours and the Rep surge stopped on Sat-Sun.

INTERESTING AND POSSIBLY GREAT NEWS: THE TWO COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS IN GEORGIA WHERE THE GOP HAD A CHANCE TO UNSEAT DEMS ARE BOTH LOOKING VERY GOOD. MAX BURNS IS WINNING HANDILY, UP 12 WITH 40% REPORTING WHILE COLLINS AND MARSHALL ARE IN A DEAD HEAT IN GA 8.

Weldon in PA looks like he’s going down to defeat. Trailing by 12 with 45% of the vote counted.

9:00 PM - Allen maintaining 30,000 vote lead with 84% reporting. Talent maintaining slim lead with 12% reporting.

NANCY JOHNSON OF CT GOES DOWN. FIRST OF PERHAPS 3 CT GOP’ERS. DEMS +4.

Where we stand at 9:00 central:

IN - Sodrel hanging in there but running out of votes and still trailing.

OH - Pryce locked in death struggle is dead even. Ney’s revenge in OH 18 will be a Dem win. Padgett is way down.

NH - Bass is toast. Bradley still trails by 500 votes.

FL - “Foley” close. Buchanan wins. Clay Shaw in big trouble.

Weldon out. Sodrel out. Dems +6. Jesus. And New York isn’t even in yet.

9:15 PM - Sherwood bites the dust. Dems +7.

I want to get mad at all the Pollyannas who were telling me I was an idiot for talking about the Republicans losing the House. But I’ve come to realize that writing everyday and exposing yourself to criticism is part of the game. Instead, I’ll do the mature, adult, thing and just stick out my tongue and go NYAH, NYAH, NYAH.

Getting incredibly tired. Been up since 2:00 AM this morning.

It’s already a foregone conclusion that the Republicans will lose the House. And it looks like they’ll hang on to the Senate. The only question is the margin of victory for the Dems.

I think what we’re seeing is the reason the Karl Rove strategy is limited. The GOP is going to get slaughtered in blue states tonight because GOTV only takes you so far, especially when the other side has a stronger operation than you do. This happened in New York, CT, NH, PA, NJ, and probably OH. It works well in statewide races like Senator, Governor, or for the electoral college. But it spells trouble for House members.

When all is said and done, it looks like the Republicans will lose perhaps 22 seats - more if things go south out west. I’ll have more on this tommorrow but for now, must get sleep.