Right Wing Nut House

The leading Lebanese Arab language daily newspaper, An Nahar, is reporting that Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah will send his supporters into the streets on Thursday in order to “bring down this unconstitutional and illegal government:”

Druze leader Walid Jumblat has warned that Lebanon was on the verge of a coup d’état as Hizbullah supporters were allegedly geared up for mass street protests on Thursday.

The leading daily An Nahar said Monday that the demonstrations would most likely take place on Thursday, the day Premier Fouad Saniora’s cabinet is to convene.

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah urged his followers and pro-Syrian allies to be “psychologically” ready for mass demonstrations to topple Saniora’s anti-Syrian government.

Jumblat, in turn, warned that “we are on the verge of a coup … through gradual street protests and possible collective resignations from (public) administrations and from parliament … then riots and civil disobedience.”

Nasrallah says that the protests will be peaceful and that even if government security forces seek to provoke a violent confrontation, Hizbullah will not fight back:

He also indicated that no matter what happened, even if security forces attacked the demonstrators, his militia would not be goaded into fighting a domestic battle.

“When we take to the streets we hope that they don’t mobilize their forces in front of ours,” he said. “If they insult us we will tell them, ‘God forgive you.’ If they beat us we will tell them, ‘God forgive you.’ ”

His speech was punctuated by chants from the crowd: “Labbeik ya Nasrallah” or “We follow you, O Nasrallah.”

Indeed, Nasrallah has no need to fight back or initiate a civil war. It is quite possible that he will get everything he desires without firing a shot or fomenting a single riot. This is because pressure is beginning to build on the March 14th Forces to come to some kind of agreement with Nasrallah on a reconstituted cabinet. Since Nasrallah begins from the premise that the cabinet must contain a sufficient number of Hizbullah allies so that he will have veto power over most cabinet decisions, any “national unity government” will, by definition, be the virtual end of the ruling coalition of democrats.

That pressure is taking many different forms, including regional diplomats offering competing compromise plans (all envision either a new cabinet or new elections) and the meddling by the United Nations who has been huddled with Hizbullah patrons Iran and Syria, basically plotting the downfall of Prime Minister Siniora’s government.

Nasrallah himself is playing his role as statesman to the hilt. He doesn’t want a coup, he claims, just “balance:”

Nasrallah rejected suggestions that Hezbollah was taking orders from Iran and denied that he intended to block the tribunal, but he implied that he saw formation of a new government as a way to counterbalance U.S. influence by giving a greater say to pro-Syrian groups.

“Let’s assume we do want to bring back the Syrians. We also accuse them [the government] of representing the Americans and other forces which I will not name,” he said. “If we form a national unity government, their presence will hold back the Syrians and we would keep the Americans at bay. We would achieve a balance.”

That kind of rhetoric resonates with many, many Lebanese from all sects and parties. There is much anger against the United States government for their decision last summer to delay a cease fire in the Israel-Hizbullah war in order to give the IDF more time to degrade Hizbullah’s ability to harm the Jewish state. Nasrallah has played upon US support for Siniora’s government skillfully while dismissing claims that his armed militia is beholden to Iran and Syria.

For their part, the government, besieged by both domestic and international forces, is standing firm. They maintain that while open to compromise, there are two non-negotiable items; the International Tribunal that will hear evidence of Syrian complicity in the murder of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri must go forward and the election returns of last year will not be overturned by giving Hizbullah the ability to paralyze the government:

Future TV quoted sources close to Saniora as saying the premier rejected Nasralla’s accusations, saying “they lead to more tension and strain.”

Jumblat, however, in a speech published by Lebanese newspapers on Monday, said the ruling March 14 coalition welcomes an “honorable compromise” that would break the political impasse paralyzing Lebanon.

“March 14 Forces are ready for an honorable compromise that would not affect the international tribunal,” Jumblat said at the general assembly meeting of his Progressive Socialist Party.

The ruling majority has viewed Nasrallah’s campaign to overthrow Saniora as a coup aimed at devastating the international tribunal.

Jumblat said that the “compromise should start by endorsing the international court” to prosecute the suspected killers of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The U.N. Security Council is expected to discuss the draft on Monday.

Saad Hariri, son of the slain Prime Minister and Parliamentary leader of the March 14th Forces, dismissed Nasrallah’s sincerity with a scathing insult:

“We approve of the formation of a national unity government, but the mentality required for its creation is missing.”

What does the future hold? Walid Jumblat offered this chilling scenario:

“The opposition groups are on the verge of announcing a coup in the country,” Mr. Jumblatt said Sunday at a televised news conference. “They will start with gradual street protests, then mass demonstrations, then riots and resignation from Parliament. We are until this moment still calling for a compromise.”

There is little doubt that Nasrallah has the ability to create such an outcome. The fact is, however, that a civil war would not be in his interest. He wants Lebanon intact, not destroyed by conflict. But once he sends his bully boys into the streets, all bets are off. This is because there may be counter demonstrations carried out by coalition parties that could lead to violent clashes. And the security services, thought to be loyal to the government, may lose control (or be goaded into violence) by Hizbullah rowdies.

There is also the very real possibility that Syria could foment violence as a way to destabilize the country. It has become apparent in this crisis that President Assad never viewed Syria’s exit from Lebanon as a permanent state of affairs, only a temporary set back. Infiltrating agent provocateurs into the demonstrations for the explicit purpose of fomenting civil strife is a very real possibility.

Nasrallah is about ready to ratchet up the tensions in Lebanon to unbearable levels. Whether the democrats can resist remains to be seen.