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11/21/2006
THINGS AREN’T SO PEACHY FOR OUR ENEMIES EITHER

This article originally appears in The American Thinker

Americans have been in a foul mood recently.

One would think that taking satisfaction from giving the Republicans the heave ho and depositing them in the minority would lift the spirits of our citizenry and buoy their confidence so that we could face the future with that good old fashioned American optimism that has carried the nation through difficult times in the past.

Alas, such is not the case. America awoke the day after the election and realized that kicking the GOP out of power was only part of the problem. The other half of the electoral bargain - passing the baton to the Democrats - has so far, proven to be something of a disappointment. Rarely has a party come to power as the Democrats have with such a paucity of ideas on how to cure what ails us. You can hardly blame them. Their electoral strategy involved keeping their mouths shut while the Republicans self-destructed and events in Iraq played out to their advantage. Not a brilliant battle plan but it worked to perfection - with the help of Mark Foley and the media-savvy insurgents and terrorists who have made Baghdad and its environs a hell on earth.

Unfortunately, now that they are poised to run the legislative branch of government, the lack of specificity about what they intend to do about Iraq, about Iranian nukes, about a slowly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan is coming back to haunt them. This has further soured the mood of our fellow citizens and we approach the holiday season with some trepidation and many questions unanswered.

Events the world over seem to be spinning out of our control as conflicts and crisis in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Iran, Darfur, Somalia, and several other hot spots have proved themselves resistant to any solutions we have been able to offer. Whether our efforts have been unilateral, acting in concert with our allies, or even undertaken via the questionable auspices of the United Nations, it seems that the enemies of freedom have it all going their way.

Not so fast, my dejected countrymen. In a surprising number of conflicts and crisis where it appears the enemy has a singular advantage, the fact is that any “victory” they might achieve at our expense will almost certainly come with enormous problems for them as well. And given that their legitimacy is not based on popular sovereignty but rather comes from the barrel of a gun, this makes any domestic problems that may crop up as a result of an American “defeat” a threat to their very existence.

Take the Iranians, for example. As long as we’re in Iraq, the mullahs will continue to do their best to destabilize the government by supporting insurgents and the various Shia militias that are gleefully slaughtering their fellow countrymen who happen to belong to the Sunni branch of Islam. But something has happened in the last few months that even the Iranians didn’t count on. The militias appear to have splintered, many members breaking away from any kind of central command structure and are now operating as independent death squads. Even Muqtada al-Sadr, head of the extremist Mahdi Militia has admitted he no longer controls large numbers of armed men who are roaming the streets of Baghdad looking for victims.

Losing control of their proxies is not the worst of it for the Iranians. The Democratic electoral victory has them even more nervous. Not because they think the Democrats are interested in victory in Iraq but rather because they know that the Democrats want as quick an exit for our troops as can be done without exposing themselves to political charges of cutting and running. The obvious corollary to an American withdrawal is utter and complete chaos in Iraq with not only Shia slaughtering Sunni but also rival Shia militias - the Mahdi Army and Badr Brigades - slaughtering each other in a quest for power.

Ahmadinejad may be a loon, but he’s not crazy enough to tolerate a failed state on his border. The Iranians may be forced to send their own troops into the resulting chaos and quagmire to restore some semblance of order. And wouldn’t that be the irony of ironies as it would be payback time for Iraqis who would gladly transfer their hate from occupying Americans to the Iranians who they fought for 10 long years in one of the more brutal wars of the 20th century.

The collapse of the Iraqi government would also give greater independence to the Kurds in the north who already enjoy a large degree of autonomy from Baghdad. With Kurdish Iranians over the border already seething over their perceived second class citizenship and yearning to be united with their ethnic brothers and sisters not only in Iraq but also Turkey and elsewhere, the Persian nightmare of restless minorities causing trouble within the Iranian border may become an uncomfortable reality. And once a few groups start to rebel, anything is possible including a general uprising against the rule of the theocrats.

Also, any success that the Iranians may have with their nuclear program is a double edged sword. While the chances of an American strike against Iranian nuclear facilities may be fading, the fact is that most of the world is united against the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. The closer the mullahs get to their goal of manufacturing a weapon, the more pressure will result from countries like Russia and China that today seem to be hanging back, reluctant to impose even minimal sanctions.

As the Iranian program progresses, they may find those who have been running interference for them at the United Nations less and less sanguine about radical fundamentalist Muslims having the ultimate weapon. And with their economy in the toilet and nearly 50% of the population under the age of 25 (26% under the age of 14), tough sanctions and the resulting international isolation could create the perfect conditions for a revolutionary overthrow of the government.

Meanwhile, Syria is, if anything, in even more trouble than Iran. Just next door, Israel has been making noises about going after Hezb’allah’s patron and supporter in order to keep the terrorists from re-arming. And while Syrian President Bashir Assad continues to meddle in the affairs of his Lebanese neighbors, his support and encouragement of Hezb’allah may be about to yield the unintended consequence of a civil war. Nasrallah is no Syrian toady and is now following his own agenda that he hopes will bring him to power either directly through new elections or indirectly by giving him veto power in a new “government of national unity.”

Resistance to Nasrallah’s plans may erupt into street violence within the week. And while most observers believe that Hezb’allah would emerge victorious, the resulting fractured society would be almost as hard to govern as next door Iraq. Besides, Assad needs Lebanon virtually intact. The little country has been a cash cow for the Syrian Alawi ruling class as they milked and skimmed the economy in the past for every farthing they could.

It is Iraq where Assad faces the most danger. A precipitous American withdrawal would present the Syrians with many of the same problems faced by Iran with a few extra headaches thrown in for good measure. The 90% of Sunni Muslims who make up Syria’s population would not look kindly on the slaughter of their co-religionists in Iraq. Refugees would pour across the border, straining the government’s resources. And the nightmare prospect of a potential radical Shia state ensconced on his border has been one reason that Assad has cooperated - however minimally - with American efforts to staunch the flow of fighters coming into Iraq via Syria.

Even Russia and China, who would seem to gain from American setbacks in the Middle East, would be facing problems that may, in the long run, actually draw them closer to the United States on some issues.

The nuclear non-proliferation problem doesn’t end with Iran. Both nations realize that it is in their vital interest to keep a lid on the bottle containing the nuclear genie if only to forestall a nightmare future with dozens of nuclear powers, any one of which capable of igniting World War III. This is why eventually, both nations will work with us to keep Iran from getting the bomb. The alternative is just too gruesome to contemplate.

In the Middle East, both nations realize the need for peace and stability - especially China who in a few years will surpass Japan as the second largest importer of oil behind the United States. Russia, with its restless Muslim minorities, also sees peace in the Middle East as a key to its future internal security. Both nations may temporarily profit by US missteps in the region. But ultimately, both realize that it is the United States and our special relationship with Israel that is the key to peace. Anything that reduces American influence in the region also potentially diminishes the chances for stability, something both countries can ill afford.

The bottom line is that as bad as things may seem to us, the fact that our enemies will be limited in taking advantage of our blunders due to consequences beyond their control should, if not make us feel better, at least lift the pall of gloom and doom that emanates from the punditocracy on a daily basis. And it should also remind us that we’re in this war for the long haul. Temporary set backs in Iraq or anywhere else should not deter us from continuing the fight to rid the world of Islamic extremists and the putrid ideology they wish to impose on the rest of us.

By: Rick Moran at 9:04 am
12 Responses to “THINGS AREN’T SO PEACHY FOR OUR ENEMIES EITHER”
  1. 1
    gregdn Said:
    9:45 am 

    Well, that’s certainly an interesting interpretation of events in the ME. I’m not sure that having a nuclear Iran would be a bad thing for Russia and China though, since that would blunt our influence in the region.

  2. 2
    John Said:
    11:22 am 

    Enjoyed the article, but must disagree about China helping the U.S. to keep the genie in the bottle.

    As each month passes, it becomes more clear that China is in league with Iran by running cover for them at the U.N. and turning a blind eye to N. Korea and others helping Iran develop a nuke and delivery system.

    I imagine that China is doing so to insure a steady and increasing supply of oil. Plus, if an Iranian ally controls a Persian “Lake” and 40% of the world’s oil, China can call on Iran to cut off (or threaten to) the supply of oil to the U.S. and the West when China decides to go for Taiwan.

    Apparently, China’s insular view of Islam’s desire to subjegate the entire world keeps China from realizing that one day Iran will come for them.

  3. 3
    Burkee Said:
    1:15 pm 

    Great analysis, Rick. Right to the point. I just hope this kind of clear thinking does not work its way into the “cut and run” crowd logic. They will use any argument they can to throw against the wall to see if it will stick. It’s so easy to be a critic, as they will soon find out.

    What I will be watching as close as I can is how the MSM starts spinning all of these events as they unfold. Do you think they will ever admit their ignorance to what’s really happening over there as you so succinctly laid out? Thanks, and keep up the good work.

    Stuck in LA-LA land…

  4. 4
    Larry in L.A. Said:
    3:47 pm 

    How dense (or conniving) can the Right be? The Democrats haven’t even taken power yet and our Right Wing Media is already labeling them as failures without a plan. But that’s typical of how our screwed up Conservative Media works. Here’s a little news for you. Democrats don’t do “Group Think” well. That is the domain of the Republicans (“stay the course”). The Democrats have a variety of plans but our media loves to pick out the fringe single advocate oddities (bring back the draft or pull out of Iraq NOW) to highlight as the Democrat’s solutions. Democrats debate to reach a consensus. Republicans, without media scrutiny, listen to and follow their leaders (”Group Think”, that is how we got into Iraq). The result is the disgraced Trent Lott is quietly in and Mertha is loudly out. The Democrats reached a sound decision and the Republicans are back to business as usual. For anyone who thinks that our media is liberal just continue to watch how they go after these Democrats as they give the Republicans a pass. Remember how they went after Clinton? You ain’t seen nothing yet! Republican incompetence, corruption and ineptness was years in the making and the Right Wing Media gave them a pass until this last twelve months. In contrast the Media spotlight is on every move these Democrat Elects make. This media will continue to pummel Hillary, Nancy and the rest of the Democrats. Double standard? Par for the course.
    The one thing that our enemies love more than the United States being incompetently (suicidal) of one mind is they themselves being proven right. Our enemies get satisfaction out of anything that appears to be a setback for the “War Criminal” Bush even if that set back will help the America that they hate. The desire to be right burns inside of all of us. Our enemies see the Democrats’ victory as proof that Americans have finally awakened to the fact that Muslims were right about America and Bush. Republicans have tried to twist this into a commonality of results between Democrats and terrorist. Of course this is a sadistic Right Wing lie that is designed only to put the incompetent scandal ridden Republicans back in power. The fact that China may relish the predicament we find ourselves in is the result of Republican incompetence. Anyone who voted for an American candidate because of what foreign terrorist think gave the power of their vote to the terrorist. Anyone who senses that things are now going the way of the enemies of freedom due to the Democrats victory is utterly clueless. Things started going the terrorist way when Bush was inserted into the White House in 2000. His bubble headed humble foreign policy attitude coupled with our going it alone made antagonists of our traditional friends. “Group think” and American incompetence are allies of our enemies. They breed over confidence, minor terrorist victories and in the end led to chaos. Bush incompetently took our enemies lightly in 2000 and gave the terrorist a victory on 911. He confidently went into Iraq with virtually every Republican in lock step, and thus is in the process of possibly giving our enemies another victory. This Iraq War has been waged exactly the way Bush wanted. The Republican Congress was a rubberstamp. This is as close to American totalitarianism that I’ve seen in my lifetime. According to Joe Scarborough, 94% of Republicans voted for republicans in the last election. These are true believers. They don’t think they follow. Republican incompetence, scandal and ineptness means nothing to them it’s all about power.
    The terrorist States where our enemies dwell have the same problems that all totalitarians have- an absence of real debate. They are unlikely to hit upon good solutions to any problems. Because of this flaw when they win minor clashes their people lose major advantages. This is why they are ultimately doomed to failure despite what Pyrrhic victories they may achieve. Just as Bush foolishly rushed into Iraq and deposed Saddam the Iranians have foolishly backed uncontrollable chaos. Both Bush and our enemies concerns should always be on the big picture instead of the ill-advised goals and small victories that temporary lay before them. The Democrats were irrelevant to what both saw and see before them. Competence leads to success. The terrorists are rooting for the same thing that we are rooting for, incompetence by their respective enemies.
    Some of those who originally backed Bush’s move into Iraq still cling to hope that the WMDs were moved to Syria. Some still believe in the “stay the course” slogan as a sound plan. They are willing to put our young troopers’ lives on the line for the continued power of the Republican Party. They hate the Democrats refusal to incompetently wait twenty years to prove Bush right. They want Republicans to win elections during this waiting period of not holding Conservatives accountable. They are now trying to hold Democrats accountable for what the Dems might do. The more incompetence that is added to the World mix the more chaos created. Everybody loses. By bringing Democrats into power true debate can bring better solutions that will benefit all of mankind. These solutions will not come from “Group think”. At the very least the number of blunders will diminish.

    Banned but not out.

  5. 5
    Burkee Said:
    5:05 pm 

    To Larry from L.A.:

    What the hell are you responding to? Did you even read the article before this rant of yours? You just want to play politics all the time, and create every bizarre conclusion within that construct. Go and paste this dribble at some other location where other BDS junkies like you can all get off on it. It’s really sad that you can’t even get, much less stay, on topic for one brief moment. That’s why nobody listens to you.

  6. 6
    Rick Moran Said:
    5:47 pm 

    Nick:

    Your comment was deleted for being non germane and incoherent to boot.

    My patience wears thin…

  7. 7
    Rick Moran Said:
    6:36 pm 

    Larry:

    Your relentless partisanship is tiring. Your insulting tone makes me want to puke.

    The comment is deleted and you are banned…AND OUT!

  8. 8
    Larry in L.A. Said:
    6:46 pm 

    To:Rick

    If I am part of the solution then I am obviously…

    banned and out!

  9. 9
    Burkee Said:
    6:58 pm 

    Thanks, Rick. Good decision.

    I’m a regular reader here, and I’ll be back.

  10. 10
    John Said:
    9:54 am 

    To Larry in LA:

    The dems have a variety of plans to protect us from terrorist attacks? For five years I’ve asked my liberal friends to tell me what the dem plan is. I’ve recieved no answer.

    The Pentagon plane flew so low over my head on 9/11 I could read American on the side of the plane, so PLEASE, take this opportunity to tell me what the dem plan is to defeat the terorists. Forgive me while I don’t hold my breath until you “reach consensus.”

  11. 11
    Right Wing Nut House » THE SYRIAN CONUNDRUM Pinged With:
    9:24 am 

    [...] PUNDIT VINCE AUT MORIRE VODKAPUNDIT WALLO WORLD WIDE AWAKES WIZBANG WUZZADEM ZERO POINT BLOG THE SYRIAN CONUNDRUM LEBANON UPDATE (PICTURES, LINK TO VIDEO BELOW) THE COUNCIL HAS SPOKEN HAPPY THANKSGIVING THE Admin Login Register Valid XHTML XFN Design by: Hosted by: Powered by: 11/24/2006 THE SYRIAN CONUNDRUM CATEGORY: War on Terror, MiddleEast [...]

  12. 12
    Larry in L.A. Said:
    12:24 pm 

    To: John

    I find it hard to believe that you have not gotten an answer. If you are like our “Liberal Media” you have ignored the answers the liberals have given and then proclaimed that the Dems have no plan(s). The “Liberal Media” works in strange ways. If you were looking for the “Dem Plan” I have already written that the Dems don’t do “Group Think”. I will assume the former as I respond.
    After 911 both Dems and Republicans were almost without exception on the same page regarding going into Afghanistan and fighting the bad guys. Bush had a 90% approval rating among all Americans. When George started rewriting the plan the Dems were vocal about making sure that we get Ben Laden and not rush into Iraq. Still, they showed solidarity and voted for the use of force in Iraq AS NECESSARY if Saddam did not allow the inspectors in. Saddam reluctantly and arguably fully complied. This was around the time when Bush said “I truly am not that concerned about him” (Bush-2002), referring to Ben Laden. But Bush was concerned about Saddam. Back then the Republican plan was to use Iraqi oil to pay for the war on terror. The Tom Daschle Democrat plan was to go after the terrorist that killed three thousand Americans while simultaneously allowing the inspectors (that Bush and the congress had forced on Saddam) to do their thing. They consistently and repeatedly stated this. With our embedded “Liberal Media” standing on the sidelines the Right viciously attacked Tom Daschle during his opposition to Bush’s apparent Iraq War plan, for his looking out for America, our young troopers and what was right. Daschle lost his bid for reelection. Almost immediately after we went into Iraq it was clear that we had done a bad thing. The Bush plan was implemented. We would run Iraq. We fired the Iraqi army and protected the oil fields. Meanwhile in a different area of the world the Democrats wanted Bush to have direct talks with North Korea. Republicans said stay the course. The result is North Korea conducted a nuke test. Democrats want Bush to have direct talks with Iran. Republicans say stay the course. The result is- stay tuned.
    There were no WMDs. Arabs saw all of the false Bush statements as blatant lies by the Great Satan, designed to steal their oil. We had a problem. The Democrats plan was to show good faith, fix what we broke by bringing in more troops (and most importantly Arab participation) to restore order. We would return control of Iraq to the Iraqis. We would have elections. Rehire the army to get all of those out of work young males off the street, bring the UN in and get the World Community involved in rebuilding Iraq. They wanted to provide more support to Afghanistan. Joe Biden and John Kerry preached all of this. The Republicans plan was to start pumping Iraqi oil and according to Richard Pearle, turn Iraq into a Monarchy. We would do this on the cheep with a minimum number of troops as we were being greeted with kisses and flowers. Any country that was not with us could not participate in the lucrative rebuilding contracts. It was a simple plan. Troop levels were brought down and others were placed in safer areas in Iraq to limit American deaths as the 2004 election drew near. When that failed and as violence increased Bush stole the Democrats’ plan and half implemented it and proclaimed that Kerry wouldn’t do anything that we are not already doing. The “Liberal Media” jumped on the Right Wing “values issues” bandwagon. Kerry lost the election.
    There have been so many blunders since then there may not be a victorious way out of the mess that Bush has created. The one thing that I am sure of is the simpleminded people that made the mess are not capable of attending to the now greater complexities that exist today. They are not honest enough to truthfully identify the many problems. The best scenario looking forward may be just hopefully managing the disaster so that it does not turn into a Regional or World catastrophe. Still, the Democrats have plans. Go to their web sites and get a broader view. I have given you some of the pieces of past Dem plans. If you have been paying attention to the news over the past five years you will recognize that these things did occur. I will not do all of the work for you. Seek and you shall find. I am glad that you did not try to hold your breath for I took a holiday break. Proof that the Dems do have plans is the Republicans and some in the “Liberal Media” relabeled all of them “cut and run” plans. I’m sure you’ve heard of those plans.

    Banned but not out.

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