Right Wing Nut House

As Hizbullah continues to ratchet up the tension in Beirut, frantic behind the scenes efforts by Arab diplomats and others to find a political solution to the crisis are picking up steam:

International and local efforts to contain the rising political tension picked up Monday, after a Shiite protester’s death raised fears that anti-government demonstrations could reignite sectarian clashes. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa warned that the crisis could worsen. Speaking during a 24-hour visit to Beirut, Moussa indicated that he had discussed a possible solution with Lebanese officials.

Moussa, who also met with Hizbullah officials, said that “the whole Arab arena can’t stand by and watch.”

After a visit to pro-opposition President Emile Lahoud, Moussa was asked for details about his efforts to broker a deal, replying: “It is still at the beginning, but I see that it is a start that gives some hope.”

“Yes, I am worried about the situation,” he told reporters. “However, if we all join hands we can save this country.”

Many observers believe that the situation is beyond compromise and that only total capitulation by Siniora’s government or total victory by Hizbullah in some kind of engineered coup will end the standoff:

Lebanon’s army commander warned the government that the daily protests and riots might get out of control, several newspapers reported Tuesday, as the authorities reported another night of unrest in the capital.

The comments of Gen. Michel Suleiman showed that the military was concerned that the political crisis between the pro-Western, Sunni Muslim prime minister and the pro-Syrian, Shi’ite Muslim-led opposition was approaching dangerous levels.

Thousands of troops are deployed across the capital where, since Friday, the Hizbullah-led opposition has been convening daily demonstrations to topple the government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

Large crowds were expected later Tuesday at the funeral of a Shi’ite Muslim youth, Ahmed Mahmoud, 21, who was shot dead in street clashes in the Beirut district of Qasqas on Sunday. Further clashes took place in the nearby neighborhood of Tarik Jedideh on Monday night, when two people were wounded, police said.

“The absence of political solutions, along with the recurrence of security incidents, particularly those with sectarian tinge, drains the army’s resources and weakens its neutrality,” Suleiman was quoted as saying. “This weakness will make the army unable to control the situation in all areas of Lebanon.”

While the diplomats talk, Hizbullah is carrying out what appears to some as a detailed and coordinated plan to overturn the government:

From Saturday late night into the early hours of the morning, more incursions by HizbAllah’s elements were signaled inside the traditional Sunni West Beirut. A battle with rocks took place in many streets leaving a number of wounded and one HizbAllah militiaman dead. The Iranian-backed militants staged their “thrusts” into Sunni areas from their launching pad in the “protest” areas in downtown, commonly described by the opponents as the “coup d’Etat” basis. According to sources in the Lebanese Army, the gradual “coup” is taking place with a minute preparation coordinated by the Iranian embassy in Beirut. A “War room,” including HizbAllah, Syrian intelligence, President Lahoud’s secret services, Baath Party, Syrian National-Socialists and representatives from General Michel Aoun’s group, is directing the campaign.

On the political level, the single most important development is the decision made by the March 14 movement and the Cedars Revolution leaders to “move the headquarters of the Government to Mount Lebanon if the Syro-Iranian militias would overrun the Prime Minister’s office.” Such a decision means that the Seniora cabinet and the leaders of the anti-Syrian majority in Lebanon will resist the onslaught of HizbAllah’s forces and would eventually call on the people to oppose the coup d’Etat. In Washington and Paris, Governmental sources said that bringing down the Government outside the Parliament is a red line. In New York, the Security Council members, particularly the US and French delegations have clearly signified their rejection of a violent crumbling of a democratically elected cabinet. This view is widely shared by the majority of Arab moderate countries, including Egypt, Jordan and Morocco.

Dr. Phares, a very good analyst, leaves the definition of “red line” up in the air. The phrase goes with a question I asked on Sunday: What will the world do to save Lebanon?

Nasrallah is counting on the world (including much of the Arab world) acquiescing in his coup. This is because he plans on observing the Lebanese constitution once he rids himself of the March 14th coalition. He has already designated Former Prime Minister Omar Karami (a Sunni) to succeed Siniora, a move designed to placate world opinion - despite the fact that Karami is a notorious tool of Syria. And it is likely that any faux “Unity Government” he installs will make its first project a reform of the outdated electoral law. Somehow, one can imagine that when bringing the law up to date, Nasrallah will find a way to marginalize the March 14th forces and, when the expected new elections are called for, elevate his pro-Syrian coalition to majority status.

This brings us back to what Washington and Paris mean by a coup being a “red line” that Nasrallah dare not cross. Are the two nations willing to go to war with Hizbullah? Are they willing to go to the United Nations and ask UNIFIL to protect the Siniora government? Do they have something else beside total surrender in mind?

If so, they best get busy. The clashes in the streets are bringing the nation closer to open warfare:

Hundreds of army troops in armored vehicles stepped in, firing warning shots in the air to break up renewed clashes late Monday between government supporters and protesters vowing to topple Premier Fouad Saniora’s cabinet.

About 300 angry protesters also blocked the Beirut airport highway after midnight, but the Lebanese army intervened and opened the road.

Fighting broke out in several predominantly Sunni neighborhoods after nightfall Monday as the body of Ahmed Mahmoud, who was killed in a similar street fight, was brought by ambulance to downtown Beirut, where thousands of Hizbullah-led protesters were camping for the fourth straight night demanding to overthrow Saniora’s government.

On Tuesday, angry mourners buried Mahmoud in the “Two Martyrs” cemetery in Beirut’s Shiite southern suburb, two days after the tragic death by gunfire from a mysterious source.

Hizbullah accused three persons from the predominantly Sunni Mustaqbal movement of shooting Mahmoud, 20, in a clash on Sunday night.

There are so many reports of Syrian intelligence infiltrating these mobs that they can’t all be rumors. Saudi Arabia believes that Syria has taken an active role in fomenting violence. So do many western governments. And the unrest is putting enormous pressure on Siniora to spare the nation a bloody civil war and resign. However, it appears that March 14th will not go without a fight of some kind, although it is difficult to imagine any of their militias standing up in open combat to Hizbullah’s crack troops.

It is equally difficult to see Hizbullah backing away by agreeing to some political settlement that doesn’t give them everything they are asking for; resignation of the government and the establishment of a government of national unity with leaders designated by Nasrallah. Anything less would not be acceptable to President Assad - even if the government agreed to the dropping of the International Tribunal. Both Assad and Nasrallah are committed to playing out their coup scenario to the end. And it is difficult to imagine a sequence of events that would lead to anything accept surrender by Siniora or civil war.

If the west were to attempt to assist Siniora, he would lose support among some of the swing Christians and Sunnis who are already suspicious of America and France’s friendship. Clearly, any help would have to come from Arab states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia - two nations who have made it clear that any move by Hizbullah to overthrow the government would be seen as illegal and unacceptable. How that would translate into anything other than moral support is difficult to see. Neither nation wants to fight Hizbullah either.

And don’t expect any help for Siniora to come from the United Nations - not with Russia ready to play her veto card if things get dicey in the Security Council. The Russians still consider Syria an ally and would not allow the timid diplomats at the UN to get any ideas about rescuing Siniora and democracy in Lebanon.

Would the Lebanese army fight for the government? It is believed that much of that army is pro-Syrian or, at least pro-Hizbullah. So far, General Suleiman has made all the right noises about the army staying above the fray - which means that in the event of an armed coup, they would probably have a good excuse to sit on the sidelines. Siniora may be able to count on several hundred troops and little more. For the rest, he must look to the militias for protection.

So in the end, the government of Prime Minister Siniora finds themselves facing Hizbullah with little prospect of outside help and only the amateurish, untrained sectarian militias to stand against Hizbullah’s well armed, highly trained cadres of fanatics. And as Lebanon rushes toward the abyss, there appears to be little that can be done to prevent a tragedy being engineered by Damascus and Tehran.