Right Wing Nut House

Chief UN investigator Serge Brammertz has issued a report stating that he has identified “a number of persons” who may have been involved in the murder of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and that motives for the killing have been “significantly narrowed down.”

But Brammertz has refused to echo the suspicions of the first UN investigator to look into Hariri’s killing, Detlev Mehlis, that fingers “top ranked” Syrian and Lebanese officials:

There is probable cause to believe that the decision to assassinate former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri, could not have been taken without the approval of top ranked Syrian security official and could not have been further organized without the collusion of their counterparts in the Lebanese security services.

And who were the assassins? The original Mehlis Report redacted the names of the perpetrators. But before they could do so, a Word document containing the redacted information was disseminated. Below is a quote from the Mehlis Report clearly implicating the highest levels of the Syrian government in the assassination:

One witness of Syrian origin but resident in Lebanon, who claims to have worked for the Syrian intelligence services in Lebanon, has stated that approximately two weeks after the adoption of Security Council resolution 1559, Maher Assad, Assef Shawkat, Hassan Khalil, Bahjat Suleyman and Jamil Al-Sayyed ($$ previous text in boldface omitted in final draft, replaced by following text in parentheses) (senior Lebanese and Syrian officials) decided to assassinate Rafik Hariri. He claimed that Sayyed ($$ previous text in boldface omitted in final draft, replaced by following text in parentheses) (a senior Lebanese security official) went several times to Syria to plan the crime, meeting once at the Meridian Hotel in Damascus and several times at the Presidential Place and the office of Shawkat ($$ previous text in boldface omitted in final draft, replaced by following text in parentheses) (a senior Syrian security official). The last meeting was held in the house of Shawkat ($$ previous text in boldface omitted in final draft, replaced by following text in parentheses) (the same senior Syrian security official) approximately seven to 10 days before the assassination and included Mustapha Hamdan (another senior Lebanese security official). The witness had close contact with high ranked Syrian officers posted in Lebanon.

1. Assef Shawkat, perhaps the second most powerful man in Syria. He’s head of Syrian intelligence and is the brother in law of President Assad.

2. Hassan Khalil, former head of Syrian intelligence. He “retired” 4 days after the Hariri assassination in a government shake up. He was replaced by Shawkat.

3. Maher Assad, the President’s younger brother. A commander in the praetorian Republican Guard, he leads a crack brigade charged with the defense of Damascus. Originally believed to be the logical successor to his father, Bashar evidently got the job because Maher has been known to be a little “unstable.” To wit: In October 1999 he reportedly shot his brother-in-law Assef Shawqat in the stomach after an argument.

4. Bahjat Suleymana. A friend of Shawkat and one of the three members (along with Asad’s brother and Shawkat) of the President’s “National Security Committee.”

5. Jamil Al-Sayyed. One of four high ranking Lebanese generals accused of complicity in the plot. Al-Sayyed headed up the Sûreté Générale, or internal security forces in Lebanon. He along with Mustapha Hamdan, a close confidante of President Lahoud; Ali Hajj, a general in the internal security service who was formerly in charge of Hariri’s security and who was fired by Hariri in 2000 for spying on him for Syria; and Raymond Azar, ex chief of Military intelligence have all been in jail for 20 months, arrested on charges of complicity in the killing of the ex-Prime Minister.

If Mehlis had no qualms about naming Syrian and Lebanese names - if only to the Security Council (the names were leaked inadvertently) - why won’t Brammertz point the finger at Assad’s inner circle?

Mehlis didn’t want to release the names in order to maintain the presumption of innocence and not influence the inquiry for his sucessor. But we are rapidly approaching the sitting of the International Tribunal to try these criminals and Brammertz has said that the investigation is nearly complete. Isn’t it about time we had the names of some defendants?

The first U.N. chief investigator, Germany’s Detlev Mehlis, said the killing’s complexity suggested the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services played a role in Hariri’s assassination. Four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals have been under arrest for 20 months, accused of involvement in Hariri’s murder.

Brammertz has not echoed Mehlis’ suggestion, and did not provide any clues to those who may have been involved. He said Syria and other states have continued to provide “mostly positive responses” to requests for assistance.

In his eighth report to the U.N. Security Council, Brammertz signaled for the first time that the U.N. International Independent Investigation Commission would be wrapping up its work and transferring its files and findings to the international tribunal, which the council unilaterally established on May 30 to prosecute suspects in the killings.

He said the consolidated reports totaling more than 2,400 pages — including a 2,000-page report covering all areas of the Hariri investigation — were prepared to help ensure “a smooth handover at the appropriate time in the near future” to the new tribunal’s prosecutor.

Color me a pessimist but I have a very bad feeling about the tack Brammertz is taking. By steering clear of naming high level Syrians, he may very well have received cooperation from Assad’s government that wasn’t given to Mehlis. But it begs the question; why would Assad play ball with Brammertz if he even suspected his brother, brother in law, and other high ranking officials were going to be put on the dock?

This is not to say that the Syrian government will not be implicated. But there has been speculation for months that Assad will sacrifice one or more lower ranking Syrians - perhaps the deceased Ghazi Kenaan who headed up Syran intelligence in Lebanon for two decades and was found dead of a gunshot wound to the head. He was also implicated in the Mehlis report as was Rustom Ghazaleh, a former intelligence chief in Lebanon who some referred to as the country’s “pro-consul” so powerful he was. Could it be possible that Assad would have made a deal with Brammertz to keep his hands off his inner circle in exchange for giving him a couple of underlings?

I don’t subscribe to conspiracies but if the Tribunal were to name as defendants 3 of the most powerful men in Syria and they were found guilty, the absolute worst thing that could happen from the UN’s point of view would occur.

They would have to do something about it.

And given the reluctance of the UN to fully face up to difficult and thorny issues, it is not beyond imagining that even if Brammertz didn’t make a deal with Assad on defendants for the Tribunal, the prosecutor may have realized that it would be in his own best interests not to rock the boat too precipitously at the UN:

Brammertz, who is also investigating with less intensity 17 other political murders or attempted murders in Lebanon, said Syria’s cooperation remained “generally satisfactory.”

The Belgian has not repeated allegations by his German predecessor, Detlev Mehlis, that Hariri could not have been killed without the complicity of senior Syrian officials, and his relations with Damascus have been better.

Brammertz, whose current mandate expires at the end of this year, is considered a leading candidate to succeed Carla del Ponte of Switzerland as chief prosecutor for the Hague-based tribunal to try war crimes in former Yugoslavia.

Certainly he will need the support of the Security Council to get that posting to the Hague - and a nice feather in his cap to be sure. How would the SC feel if he forced them to deal with the implications of a state that routinely carries out political murders in order to control a tiny neighbor?

In the end, there genuinely may not be enough evidence to charge members of Assad’s inner circle with the crime. But my pessimistic assessment reading between the lines of what Brammertz is saying is that there is a chance that the real perpetrators of Hariri’s assassination may get a pass. And that would not sit well with the people of Lebanon or many in the west.