THE GOP RACE IS A MESS
My latest PJ Media column is up. It’s on the Michigan primary and the mess that is the GOP race for president.
Each successive contest in the Republican primary gauntlet has shown that GOP voters are dissatisfied with their choices and have very little idea of who should lead them. They tried on the center-left populism of Mike Huckabee’s religious crusade of a candidacy and didn’t like the fit. They decisively rejected the maverick McCain in Michigan. Now they’re tasting Romney a la King and will decide whether to enjoy the repast or send it back to the chef for being overdone.
Meanwhile, the Democrats watch the Republicans deflating and are rubbing their hands together in anticipation of running against a GOP candidate that elicits little enthusiasm among the rank and file. And while the Democrats have their own problems with trying to resist the temptation to play identity politics with their African American and female candidates, they will have no difficulty energizing their own base whoever the nominee might be.
The aimlessness of Republicans as they continue to search for a leader is not a catastrophe – at the moment. But if the GOP can’t make up its mind prior to the end of the primaries, the small but not impossible chance that they would enter their convention in September without a nominee stares them in the face.
No, actually, it’s not.
Support for McCain will collapse this week to pre-”Mac Attack” levels. Face it, McCain is getting slaughtered with the base. Not just beat but slaughtered.
The fact that pundits have McCain actually winning the most conservative state of all when he is the least conservative candidate, to me, is laughable. Expect Romney, Thompson and yes, even the gentle Mr (slash-their-tires-if-they-don’t-vote-for-me) Huckabee to attack McCain hard this week.
McCain will place 3rd or 4th in SC. His campaign is over. Romney will place 1st or 2nd, win in Nevada and win Florida (old people like Romney and there are LOTS of them in Florida).
After Florida is done, this race will be OVER with Romney the nominee.
P.S., Rick, after your McCain the “Mr Inevitable” thread I am starting to doubt your political instincts.
Comment by Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC — 1/16/2008 @ 9:34 am
I think I made it pretty clear that it was the MSM who had crowned McCain “Mr. inevitable.”
As for McCain, he has tremendous support among vets of which South Carolina has the most in the nation. I agree though about the base. He only got 25% of the Republican vote in Michigan - pitiful.
Huckabee has self destructed with his stupid remark about amending the constitution based on “God’s principles.” Those votes go to Fred who fights it out with McCain and Romney for 1st.
Don’t count Rudy out in Florida.
Comment by Rick Moran — 1/16/2008 @ 9:38 am
It’s NOT a mess! Let’s not have the short attention span of a liberal here. We’ve had 3 distinctly different primaries so far…..out of 50? And you’re joining the MSM in whining and moaning? Buck up! It’s not over till it’s over. The MSM has been in a feeding frenzy over this election for the last 12 months. Elephants are supposed to have cooler heads; let’s show it.
The trouble is that none of the GOP candidates are impressing the voters as being “true conservatives”, and GOP voters are waiting for one to show up. The FL primary is in a few weeks and I still haven’t made up my mind, and probably won’t until the day I go vote.
Let’s not sound the “gloom and doom” for the elephant herd just yet…..that’t the job of the MSM!
Comment by Bruce — 1/16/2008 @ 9:52 am
Brilliant piece, Rick, as usual. Unless someone gains breakout momentum in SC (unlikely), FL will likely split relatively evenly between 4 candidates. With no breakout candidate on Super Tuesday, it’ll likely be muddled. And here’s what few are mentioning- except for Mitt, everybody’s broke. Who but Mitt can afford CA statewide advertising, much less nationwide ads? I don’t think that Mitt’s the preemptive favorite because of this, but being cash poor on Super T isn’t a great place to be.
Comment by kreiz — 1/16/2008 @ 10:09 am
I think so far so good. At least this is much better than the Dems who are down to 2 candidates before most everyone has even had a chance to vote. With one of them being Hillary.
On their side they have many people with very strong feelings already, certain that their candidate will win. The left will be already damaged well before the general election, especially if Obama loses to Clinton. She will be blamed regarless of it being her fault or not. The potention for a real party meltdown is all on the left.
On the Republican side, you have people who will hold their noses when voting other than their first choice, but they will be sure to turn up.
Comment by Fred Fry — 1/16/2008 @ 10:11 am
> Meanwhile, the Democrats watch the Republicans deflating …
Deflating? Because the GOP actually has a spectrum of candidates to choose from? The GOP voters are evaluating now. Choosing the best* after a tough winnowing process isn’t something to be ashamed of.
*assuming the best is actually chosen!
Comment by Arthur — 1/16/2008 @ 11:46 am
Sorry but most of you are wrong.
GOP voters are not “deciding” which candidate is best. They are, by every poll out there, disgusted with their choices and can’t make up their minds which candidate they hate the least.
If you think that bodes well for November, you are going to be rudely surprised.
Comment by Rick Moran — 1/16/2008 @ 11:50 am
Bill, you gotta stop listening to Hugh Hewitt. He’s apparently campaigning for White House press secretary (thinks he’s Tony Snow). Pathetic.
Flip wins Florida? A Massachusetts liberal gets 1st or 2nd in SC? That’s pretty funny, Bill.
Comment by zwhite — 1/16/2008 @ 11:58 am
Rick’s right. The difference between the Dems and the GOP is that Dems are thinking, “Can’t we have both Hillary and Obama?” Republicans are thinking, “Oh man, we’re not really stuck with McCain . . . Huckabee . . . Giuliani . . . Romney . . . are we?” As a Democrat I’m happy with 2 of the remaining 3 democrats. How many of you Republicans are happy with two-thirds of your guys?
Comment by michael reynolds — 1/16/2008 @ 1:34 pm
Hey, Rick- it’s par for the course- at least in general elections. Choosing the lesser of two evils is what I’ve done in every election since 1972.
Comment by kreiz — 1/16/2008 @ 3:55 pm
Kreiz:
1972 was my first vote. Turned out I chose evil.
Comment by michael reynolds — 1/16/2008 @ 8:42 pm
If the Democrats pick Obama they’re going to be sorry when the Afrocentric church — read “anti-white” — he belongs to in Chicago gets looked at more closely. The pastor makes Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson look like Uncle Toms.
Comment by Banjo — 1/16/2008 @ 9:02 pm
ANN COULTER ENDORSES ROMNEY!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucac/20080116/cm_ucac/theelephantintheroom
In her article, Coulter says that based upon her research, the ONLY thing Mitt has “flipped” on is choice.
Comment by Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC — 1/17/2008 @ 8:35 am
Expect Huckabee to start attacking McCain in SC. If Huckabee can’t win SC, his campaign is OVER. If Huckabee can’t beat McCain in “Evangelical Grand Central Station”, he can’t win anywhere.
Expect McCain to start attacking Huckabee. If McCain loses SC after being creamed in Michigan, his campaign is OVER.
These guys will HAVE to go on the attack starting today.
Romney has smartly bowed out and is going for Nevada where he gets to campaign alone. NV has 10 more delegates than SC, BTW.
Comment by Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC — 1/17/2008 @ 8:38 am
Michael at 11: I was worse- I picked McGovern. But I voted absentee- on my way to Saigon. Figured what the hell.
Comment by kreiz — 1/17/2008 @ 9:17 am
Being a Fred! backer, I’m pretty happy with the way things are going on the Republican side. Fred! got off to a really slow start. I look for him to do well in SC and build momentum into Super Tuesday. I’m also not so sure that having the GOP go into its convention without a clear winner would be a bad thing.
The identity politics the Dems have been pushing for so long are now coming back to bite them on their collective asses. No matter who is the candidate, a significant element of the base is going to be hacked off-maybe enough to stay home in November in a fit of pique. Add to that Obama’s comments on Reagan, and I don’t things are nearly as gloomy for the Republicans as you think.
A Hillary candidacy would definitely get the Republican base out on election day if for no other reason than to vote against her. This would also help our chances in the House and Senate races. But that’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.
Comment by irish19 — 1/17/2008 @ 11:39 am