THE ROAD TO 270
If you’ve been saving old electoral college maps from the 2000 and 2004 election so you can follow the action in 2008, I would suggest you toss them on the rubbish heap of history. While both candidates will enjoy support from many of their base states - the GOP in the south and the Democrats along both coasts - the rest of the nation is literally up for grabs this time around. No less than 17 states by my count will be heavily contested by both candidates as they seek to raid each other’s territory in order to maximize their chances to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes on election day.
It’s hard to see where one candidate or the other has an advantage in this contest but it appears by my calculations that John McCain will have to defend more of his own territory which will necessarily limit his opportunities to raid in blue states. Couple that with a probable huge disparity in cash on hand to spend vis a vis Obama and McCain would, on paper, appear to be at a decided disadvantage.
Not so. McCain’s best chances for a breakthrough blue state win are in the big states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. If McCain can take any one of those two states (while holding on to Ohio) he can afford to lose a couple of the smaller red states Obama has his heart set on and still top 270 electoral votes.
Obama, on the other hand, only need take the state of Ohio to scramble McCain’s chances for the presidency. It is hard to come up with a winning electoral college scenario for the GOP without both Ohio and Florida in the mix. That’s because Obama has a very good chance of breaking through in one or more previously Republican states like Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. With Ohio, McCain can afford to lose one or two of those states by taking Pennsylvania or Michigan. Without Ohio, even those two states put together wouldn’t be enough. The Arizona senator would probably need a breakthrough in two blue states like Minnesota and Wisconsin in order to top 270.
OBAMA’S BEST TARGETS
Most experts agree that Virginia is ripe for the plucking by a Democrat in 2008 - especially an African American Democrat like Obama.
Looking at recent statewide races for governor, it is clear that the Washington, D.C. metro area - filled as it is with federal workers and many dependent on government for their livlihood - probably holds the key to a Democratic win. The area has witnessed explosive growth in the last decade with previously rural, Republican counties like Loudon and Prince William filling up with Democratic voters. Along with the Democratic vote from Richmond, this may be enough to offset Republican strength in the Piedmont region along the border with North Carolina as well as counties bordering Tennessee where the GOP routinely hits 70%.
The loss of Virginia’s 13 electoral votes would not be a catastrophe. But Obama will have his sights set on other targets as well. And his best chance at further breakthroughs appear to me to be out west where radically changing demographics have put in play three states - Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Nevada is probably ready to tip in 2008. Unheard of growth in Las Vegas (Clark County) - 600,000 new residents since 2000 or a 40% increase - will probably mean an end to long time GOP domination in Presidential elections. Consider that in 1980 Ronald Reagan won Nevada with 62% of the vote while George Bush eked out a 21,000 vote win in 2004.
The union vote in Las Vegas and Reno will probably be enough to give the state to Obama this time around. Couple Nevada’s 5 electoral votes with Virginia’s 13 and it forces McCain to win either Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes or Michigan’s 17 to reach 270.
But Obama has two other western states in his cross hairs. New Mexico and Colorado have both experienced rapid growth in the past decade largely made up of an influx of Hispanics. Colorado may be a little more of a long shot for Obama as growth in liberal areas as slacked off in recent years and McCain could get a larger percentage of Hispanic voters than Bush in 2004. But given Obama’s superior organization and his cash on hand, a maximum effort just might pay off in Colorado.
New Mexico would seem to be a more realistic target. George Bush won by barely 6,000 votes in 2004 and with Democratic governor Bill Richardson on board, Obama could very well flip the state blue.
If Obama were to take all four states - CO, NM, VA, and NV - he would take 32 electoral votes away from George Bush’s total of 286 in 2004. You can do the math as well as I can if you take all or a combination of 2 or three of those states away from McCain. Where does he make it up?
McCAIN’S BEST TARGETS
I pointed out earlier that McCain’s best shots appear to be in Pennsylvania and Michigan - for different reasons.
Pennsylvania is ripe for an upset. It’s hard to imagine a Democrat who is less attractive to the voters in that state than Barack Obama - at least according to the primary exit polls where he was slaughtered by Hillary Clinton. Even in a Democratic year, the state sets up nicely for McCain running against Obama. The most recent Rasmussen survey from May 21 shows only a two point lead for Obama, well within the margin for error. Among key groups like older voters and white working class voters, McCain leads comfortably. Among independents, McCain also enjoys an advantage.
This state more than most will be a turnout election: Reagan Democrats versus African Americans. The fault lines will be obvious and dramatic - appeals to race will no doubt play a part in determining Pennsylvania’s fate.
Michigan is an entirely different target of opportunity for McCain. Ordinarily a reliable Democratic state, Michigan Democrats have botched it but good in the last 4 years and as mad as people might be at the GOP in Michigan they are just as angry at the Democrats. McCain has a real chance here, running slightly ahead of Obama at this point. Will McCain have the money to compete with Obama? Will he have the organization? It will be interesting to watch as McCain commits his limited resources to either protecting states like Virginia or gambling for the much bigger prizes in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Other less likely marks for the McCain campaign would be Midwestern states like Minnesota and Wisconsin. Iowa, as always, will be in play and if McCain were to lose there, taking one of the other two Midwestern states would almost become a necessity. Bush lost Wisconsin in 2004 by only 11,000 votes and McCain is up 47-43 in the state according to the last Rasumussen poll. McCain has much broader appeal than Bush in a state chock full of Reagan Democrats and independents. Making prospects for a maximum effort even more likely on McCain’s part is that it is a relatively cheap ad buy - a bigger bang for his ad bucks.
But Wisconsin is a state of ornery voters who love the reformer who challenges orthodoxy. McCain should look long and hard before committing to winning this state.
There are other states that may be in play this fall. The New York Times has a good list of them here. They add Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, and Montana to Obama’s list of targets.
Georgia and Montana are pipe dreams for the Democrat. His thinking in Georgia is that he can win a three way race with Libertarian Bob Barr and McCain splitting the conservative vote while he sweeps the African American vote and ends up with a plurality. He should glance at the polls more often. Barr is a blip in Georgia and he would have to take more than 15% of the vote for Obama to have a chance. That scenario simply isn’t very likely.
Montana is a different story but still a very long shot for Obama. Here, Barr may do very well indeed - he might even hit the 10% threshold. But Democrats are scarce in Montana and McCain should still win easily.
Missouri and North Carolina offer a slightly better battleground for Obama. But unless he can show better with white, working class voters, Missouri is out of reach and North Carolina is a stretch. Look for less of an effort in those two states the closer we get to the election.
In the end, as it has the last two elections and as it has been true many times in the past, the entire kit and caboodle will probably come down to Ohio. Here is where McCain must make a stand and where Obama has the best chance to derail his opponent’s prospects.
All of this is assuming the economy will not get much worse than it is now. If it really goes south, all bets are off and Obama’s landslide scenario comes into play. Perhaps not so much in the popular vote. But winning 400 electoral votes is a mandate any way you look at it and the potential is there if unemployment and inflation begin to bite.
