Right Wing Nut House

How is it possible that in the greatest age of scientific discovery in human history, millions of people believe that something horrible is going to happen to the world on December 21,2012?

I suppose nothing should surprise me given the widespread belief in astrology, the New Age nonsense related to the mystical power of pyramids, and the continued idiotic acceptance of Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, and other wackos as having knowledge of what is to come.

Otherwise normal, educated people will let drop in casual conversation the most inane stupidities regarding the occult, or the anti-rational rantings of long dead “prophets” whose vague, elliptical “predictions” are accepted as proof of their genius.

In fact, when it comes to believing in the paranormal or psuedoscientific theories, we Americans are spectacularly inept at being able to tell the difference between science, and psuedoscience, and are thus unable to distinguish between fact and fiction.

The last Gallup poll on the subject of belief in the paranormal in 2005 showed that beliefs in such things as ESP, ghosts, astrology, and clairvoyance, had changed little since a similar survey done in 2001.

Here’s are some results from the 2005 poll:

% Believe in

Extrasensory perception, or ESP - 41

That houses can be haunted - 37

Ghosts/that spirits of dead people can come back in certain places/situations - 32

Telepathy/communication between minds without using traditional senses - 31

Clairvoyance/the power of the mind to know the past and predict the future - 26

Astrology, or that the position of the stars and planets can affect people’s lives - 25

That people can communicate mentally with someone who has died - 21

Witches - 21

Reincarnation, that is, the rebirth of the soul in a new body after death - 20

Channeling/allowing a ’spirit-being’ to temporarily assume control of body - 9

Not all those surveyed believed in all 10 of this paranormal nonsense. But you may take no comfort from that.

A special analysis of the data shows that 73% of Americans believe in at least one of the 10 items listed above, while 27% believe in none of them. A Gallup survey in 2001 provided similar results — 76% professed belief in at least one of the 10 items.

The “cumulative percent” column shows that more than one-fifth of all Americans, 22%, believe in five or more items, 32% believe in at least four items, and more than half, 57%, believe in at least two paranormal items. Only 1% believe in all 10 items.

Further breaking down the data another study used the Gallop poll as a baseline to examine what college educated people believed about the paranormal. The results are pretty shocking:

Even though researchers Bryan Farha at Oklahoma City University and Gary Steward of University of Central Oklahoma admitted that they had expectations of finding contrary results, their poll of college students found that seniors and graduate students were more likely to believe in haunted houses, ghosts, telepathy, spirit channeling and other paranormal phenomena than were freshmen.

[...]

Farha’s and Steward’s survey was based on a nationwide Gallup Poll in 2001 that found younger Americans more likely to believe in the paranormal than older respondents. The results of the Farha/Steward poll discovered that gaining more education was not a guarantee of skepticism or disbelief toward the paranormal. While only 23% of the freshman quizzed professed a belief toward paranormal concepts, the figures rose to 31% for college seniors and 34% for graduate students.

Why is it important that belief in the paranormal be attacked, and efforts made to constantly debunk these beliefs? Here’s famous psychic paranormal debunker James Randi who has offered $1,000,000 to anyone who can prove that ESP is real:

According to J. Randi, “acceptance of nonsense as mere harmless aberrations can be dangerous to us. We live in an international society that is enlarging the boundaries of knowledge at an unprecedented rate, and we cannot keep up with much more than a small portion of what is made available to us. To mix our data input with childish notions of magic and fantasy is to cripple our perception of the world around us. We must reach for the truth, not for the ghosts of dead absurdities”

Experts refer to this as “information pollution” where outrageous ideas are interlaced with facts and what emerges is a wholly distorted view of reality.

This leads us directly to the latest manifestation of dangerous thinking with regard to the paranormal; the “End of the World” meme that is starting to really pick up steam and will only become more pronounced the closer we get to 2012.

I love the History Channel, but they seem to have made the decision to be one of the leading promoters of this nonsense, with a weekly series on Nostradamus and predictions about the end of the world from several cultures. For a network that features two of the best science programs on today - The Universe and How the Earth was Made - I find it preposterous that The Nostradamus Effect could be part of its general programming.

What is the show about?

The end is near. At least that’s what the doomsday predictions from Nostradamus, the Book of Revelation, the Mayan “long count” calendar and others would have us believe. Many unsettling forecasts of global destruction even pinpoint the year: 2012. How worried should we be? If these prophecies are accurate and inevitable, is there any way to avoid or at least postpone them from coming true? Michel de Nostradamus was a 16th-century French physician and astrologer whose very name is synonymous with apocalyptic visions of the near and distant future. His ominous writings appear to have accurately anticipated numerous natural disasters, plagues and wars. Nostradamus Effect examines these and other end-of-time predictions from cultures across the globe, from centuries ago, and connects the dots with current global events to separate the prophecies that appear to be inspired visions from those that are merely crackpot conspiracy theory.

By purporting to “separate prophecies” that are “inspired visions (could be true?) from “crackpot conspiracy theories,” the show does an enormous disservice to the truth. A skeptic would immediately identify all of this nonsense as the work of crackpots - as indeed it is. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that “inspired visions” throughout history have been anything but wishful thinking on the part of those who are unwilling to examine such claims with a critical eye. Anyone who believes Nostradamus was anything but a kook needs to look within to find the objectivity to realize that his elliptical and nebulous “quatrains” that supposedly predict the future are nothing more than gibberish.

The History Channel also has broadcast several “specials” on the Mayan Doomsday prophecy that are, if anything, more dishonest than The Nostradamus Effect. They cleverly mix little sprinkles of scientific “fact” about the Mayans and their extraordinary culture in with the false notion that the end of their calendar meant the end of the world, a ridiculous notion long ago debunked by experts in Mayan culture:

But scholars are bristling at attempts to link the ancient Maya with trends in contemporary spirituality. Maya civilization, known for advanced writing, mathematics and astronomy, flourished for centuries in Mesoamerica, especially between A.D. 300 and 900. Its Long Count calendar, which was discontinued under Spanish colonization, tracks more than 5,000 years, then resets at year zero.

“For the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle,” says Sandra Noble, executive director of the Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies in Crystal River, Fla. To render Dec. 21, 2012, as a doomsday or moment of cosmic shifting, she says, is “a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in.”

“Cash in” - as the History Channel is doing with both fists.

It should be noted that in each of these broadcasts, the producer has included one or more skeptics to provide “balance.” The Skeptic Foundation’s Robert Shermer has been a frequent voice of reason on these shows, but their commentary is far outweighed by “evidence” that points to the destruction of our planet 3 years hence.

Harmless fun? Not hardly:

Specific harms caused by paranormal beliefs have been summarized as:

* a decline in scientific literacy and critical thinking;

* the inability of citizens to make well-informed decisions;

* monetary losses (psychic hotlines, for example, offer little value for the money spent);

* a diversion of resources that might have been spent on more productive and worthwhile activities (for example, solving society’s serious problems);

* the encouragement of a something-for-nothing mentality and that there are easy answers to serious problems, for example, that positive thinking can replace hard work; and

* false hopes and unrealistic expectations

(Beyerstein 1998: “The Sorry State of Scientific Literacy in the Industrialized Democracies.” The Learning Quarterly 2, No. 2:5-11. ).

Also looking to cash in are hucksters who know exactly how to appeal to the sizable segment of our population who finds believing in these end of the world scenarios to be almost like riding a roller coaster - it’s the fun of being scared that is addicting to some. They find the idea of the world suddenly ending both terrifying and exciting. Not knowing how to judge the efficacy of such claims, they veer between acceptance and rejection with their level of acceptance rising the more they watch or read about the subject.

And if it’s reading they want, there are books galore already, not to mention an endless number of websites devoted to the topic. This one takes itself too seriously:

As 2012 approaches we have a growing list of what “experts” feel might occur. Despite the sincerity and long-winded explanations, it’s all just guesswork. There is no scientific evidence that anything untoward will happen in 2012. All we have to suggest that 2012 will be any different to 2011 or 2013 is that the Mayan Long Count calendar ends on Dec 21, 2012. The Mayans themselves had almost nothing to say about what the end of the calendar held for humankind, and this suggests that they merely inherited the calendar from an earlier culture. In deciding which of the many possible calamities are more likely to wipe us out in 2012, the possibility of an ancient culture predicting such for 2012 must be taken into consideration.

The gentleman then goes on to posit 10 calamaties - including a “Religious Apocalypse,” rapture and all, and - one that I’ve never heard of - “Explosion from the black hole at the center of our galaxy.” He repeats speculation that such a “gravity wave” caused the 2005 tsunami and not the massive Pacific Ocean earthquake scientists know was responsible for the disaster.

The site is actually quite reasonable compared to others. But his benchmark that asks if “Ancients could predict” any one of his scenarios is an indicator that the fellow is a couple of shakes short of a good martini.

The ever present danger of cults arising out of this craziness should not be underestimated. Some experts believe that the madness will not be quite as bad as what occurred during the Y2K hysteria:

The buildup to 2012 echoes excitement and fear expressed on the eve of the new millennium, popularly known as Y2K, though on a smaller scale, says Lynn Garrett, senior religion editor at Publishers Weekly. She says publishers seem to be courting readers who believe humanity is creating its own ecological disasters and desperately needs ancient indigenous wisdom.

“The convergence I see here is the apocalyptic expectations, if you will, along with the fact that the environment is in the front of many people’s minds these days,” Garrett says. “Part of the appeal of these earth religions is that notion that we need to reconnect with the Earth in order to save ourselves.”

Scare stories about global warming - exaggerating for effect - as well as the usual environmental disaster predictions play very well to the non-skeptical among us who, if they read it in the newspaper, hear it on the news, or even just read it on the internet, it must be true.

I wrote about this attitude when a study came out showing only Turkey had a higher percentage of citizens who believed evolution was false:

What is it that the rest of the enlightened world knows and we don’t? Are all the technologically advanced peoples on this planet under some magic spell of the evil Darwinists? What are the real world consequences of this kind of scientific ignorance?

There is little doubt that science education in this country is a joke. While American 4th graders score very well on international standardized tests, finishing 3rd in the most recent TIMSS Report (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study), it’s all downhill from there. Our 8th graders finish in the middle of the pack while our seniors in high school are almost dead last.

We have a lack of good science programs in middle and senior high school as well as a dearth of good science teachers. But beyond that, it is the very process of learning that is at fault.

Too much rote learning, too much emphasis on being able to regurgitate facts, and not enough problem solving, or learning the basics of critical thinking. Exercising the mind in this way while developing good habits regarding the process of weighing facts and evidence has never been a strong part of the curriculum in public schools and is even weaker today.

I’m not sure if it is possible to reintegrate these concepts into learning. My understanding of current education theory is that the very idea of critical thinking is seen as perpetrating the white power structure by brainwashing children to think only one way and not put “context” into their thinking. That “context” includes placing witch doctors on the same scientific level with western medical doctors. They aren’t superstitious practioners of pseudo medicine (despite the salutary effects of some herbal applications whose effects they ascribe to the supernatural), but rather they should be viewed as objectively on par with real doctors.

And we wonder why so many believe in ghosts?

The candle flame gutters. Its little pool of light trembles. Darkness gathers. The demons begin to stir. [Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science As a Candle in the Dark]