DOES A BROWN VICTORY POSE A DANGER FOR THE GOP?
My latest at PJ Media is up and it talks about the danger for Republicans if Scott Brown, as expected, wins today.
There were other problems with the health care issue for Democrats, including their arrogance about it, their obsessiveness with getting it passed at all costs, and their failure to address economic issues in lieu of health care reform. But the important thing to remember is that a majority of indies still want some kind of health care reform, and killing Obamacare is only half the equation.
Moderate and Blue Dog Democrats know this which is why they might be tempted to vote for a much more modest, realistic, and — dare I say — conservative version of health care reform. Meanwhile, the GOP base (many of whom see nothing wrong with our health care system at all), will settle for simply blocking the Democrats from accomplishing anything.
Is that a viable strategy for going into the 2010 mid-terms? I suppose it’s going to have to be since the chances of Boehner or McConnell lifting a finger to address any problem facing the country are just about nil. And that brings me to the danger posed by Brown’s victory raising expectations among independents nationwide.
On the one hand, there is the danger that if the GOP were actually to cooperate with Democrats on issues of mutual concern, they wouldn’t get any credit for their efforts from the voters. On the other hand, there is the real danger that the charge of “obstructionism” by Democrats may carry a little more weight given the circumstances of Brown’s victory.
Threading the needle on expectations is going to be an interesting problem for the Republican leadership, one made more complex by the activism of the tea party movement. Paralysis may be the only viable option when so many are so angry at so much of the inside the beltway elite. “Responsible” governance might require that the GOP work with the Democrats to at least, bring the economy out of its horrible doldrums. But anything proposed beyond tax cuts would probably be met by fierce resistance from those who see any government spending to stimulate the economy as worse than useless; an actual betrayal of conservative principles.
With the economy in such horrible shape, voters are demanding action. It may be good politics to block a second stimulus bill but with Brown in the picture, it may force the Democrats to be a little less grouchy about targeted, temporary tax cuts as a way to move the economy off the schniede.
Who would be blamed for failure on this and other issues? Do the Republicans want to find out?
Spin all you want but there is no way to turn this into a Republican loss–no matter how much that may contradict your faith-based belief a majority wants bigger government. The Democrats already have lost as they have been exposed as electoral paper tigers, and what awaits them in November and 2012 will make this special election a mere footnote.
The Democratic Party slowly was dying from 1980 until 2006. The last four years it has been on life support but that plug is about to be pulled. The myth of “moderate” Democrats has imploded and, along with it, the party.
Comment by jackson1234 — 1/19/2010 @ 12:04 pm
You still don’t realize the R’s are dead as a political party.
Doesn’t matter if they win today or in November, the two parties are the D’s and the NotD’s. The people support Obama or oppose Obama, R’s aren’t even part of the question.
Comment by TomD — 1/19/2010 @ 12:18 pm
ahhh… metamorphism, slowly but surely, why is it so hard… i mean really almost everyone of us has there balls scratching the fence at some point/issue or the other… oh well
Comment by michael — 1/19/2010 @ 12:24 pm
The winning of a single seat in the Senate may upset the fillibuster-proof power of the Dems but will not put the Republicans in the Driver’s seat. They are still the minority party and will have to continue to react to the majority party in dealing with any upcoming legislation. It will still be dependent upon the Dem’s approach to governing that will drive the debate.
I believe Obama will see that one vote as a challenge to his intellect and charge ahead with his agenda. Obama has never dealt with true adversity in his entire life. He has always been on the side of the majority and his only adversaries of note have been within his own party until McCain showed up and that was not much of a contest. One vote will not deter him. He will approach the problem as he has with all other problems - the power of his will and intellect will prevail over all. He will try to get another vote - a Voinovich or a Snow or a “Fill in the blank” to bend to his will and continue his agenda.
Obama is deep rooted in the left and will never be the politician Clinton was. Clinton never had a deep anchor in the left and could about face in a heartbeat. Clinton, after ‘94, represented the minority position. He, with guidance from Dick Morris, learned to rule from the Center and did a farly good job of it. Obama does not have the advantage of having a
Dick Morris. He has surrounded himself with Chicago tuffs and Far Left ideologues. For Obama to do so would be paramount to a leopard changing his spots.
Ain’t. Gonna. Happen. Unlike those Roman leaders from days gone by, Obama is more like Napoleon - placing the crown upon his own head.
Don’t expect a change in his agenda. At least not until after the November midterms.
Comment by SShiell — 1/19/2010 @ 12:40 pm
The real danger is that the Brown victory will wake Democrats up from their complacency and make them realize that they need to put together a political strategy for 2010 better than running against George W. Bush — with the result being that their majority will not erode in November as much as it would have had they not been given this wake-up call.
Comment by Transplanted Lawyer — 1/19/2010 @ 1:29 pm
Brown winning in MA isn’t going to fix the Republican party’s problems, but it will prevent a lot of problems for America in the meantime.
The Republican party will still have to contend with the fact that they are becoming a watered-down, moderate party that has lost its base of conservatism, and Brown’s victory certainly isn’t going to help that at all. But it would still be a small victory coming during a time of major weakness.
Comment by Scott — 1/19/2010 @ 1:39 pm
I thought about that aspect, Transplanted. These people are so arrogant and clueless, though, that they thought they would win every election cycle from 1994 until 2006, and only woh then because of two unpopular wars. They will press full steam ahead, and then decry the ignorance of the American people when they don’t see how wise the left-wing truly and secretly is.
Again, the last four years will be seen as a hiccup that dragged out the Democratic Party’s slow arc downward. That is why I have laughed my ass off at the suggestions the GOP was dead.
Comment by jackson1234 — 1/19/2010 @ 1:41 pm
I’m not sure what breaking up the filibuster-proof majority accomplishes.
The Blues didn’t seem to be able to accomplish anything WITH a fil-proof majority. What — are they going to accomplish LESS than nothing now? Sure this makes HCR more unlikely, but it was pretty rocky at 60 Dems too for some inexplicable reason.
Trying to paint a positive spin on Brown wining for a liberal, now the Dems can blame their incompetence on Brown, rather than own up to the fact that they are pathetically spineless. “Oh, we were sooooo totally going to pass great HCR. Darn! We were really going to.”
Comment by busboy33 — 1/19/2010 @ 1:55 pm
busboy33 said:
The opposition is basically handing them one of the best excuses ever for accomplishing nothing.
Comment by Chuck Tucson — 1/19/2010 @ 5:28 pm
Chuck Tucson said:
Do you really think the voters will excuse them for accomplishing nothing this November? I think they will work their asses off to make something worthwhile happen. Being in survival mode produces amazing results.
Comment by lionheart — 1/19/2010 @ 6:05 pm
And that’s not a bad thing.
Comment by lionheart — 1/19/2010 @ 6:06 pm
Totally on track with your column this time, Rick. Were the 2010 GOP really serious about governance and compromise, the USA could have a new chance at a much better health care bill with a Brown victory. Sadly, thats unlikely to happen. (Over at PJM, I see your post has attracted the usual vile spittle from the drool cases; which actually isn’t much different from the thinking emerging from much of the GOP leadership!) Then again, had the GOP been interested in helping America solve it’s problems by moderately cooperating with Obama, we all wouldn’t be making much if a fuss over Cloakly’s political tailspin.
Comment by Surabaya Stew — 1/19/2010 @ 7:38 pm
Holy Christ! What an ass-kicking! Mass-a-fucking-chusetts!
Or should I spell that with an extra “e”?
I just pray that Obama will campaign for all of the Democratic candidates running for office in November!
This is a good night! Good luck blaming this on Bush, you asshole liberals!
Comment by lionheart — 1/19/2010 @ 8:31 pm
To you asshole liberals: I offer up my sincere apology for gloating.
Comment by lionheart — 1/19/2010 @ 9:07 pm
And to all you selfish, mean spirited Republicans I say: reconciliation.
Comment by Richard bottoms — 1/19/2010 @ 10:17 pm
I think the Republican Brand is about to change. It’s called Tea Party. Despite not having a major name or a billion dollar benefactor it’s working. I, like many of the Founders, have faith in the common man.
What was that article you wrote about the Tea Party, Rick? You’d join it when?
Comment by Quilly Mammoth — 1/19/2010 @ 10:34 pm
This seems to be most of our problem in our government. To much time wasted trying to best each other rather then joining forces and making our government truly work for the people. It’s sicking watching and listening to grown men and women squabbling over so many small details, because the money men think there big issues. Every successful enterprise is because the men and women operating it, worked together to make it
successful.not by undercutting each other
Comment by just an american — 1/19/2010 @ 11:18 pm
No doubt this Republican win in Boston, of all places, spells certain defeat for conservatism. Oh my God, how much we could have won with a loss!! Grip my hand, Rick, and assure me you are right!!
Comment by obamathered — 1/20/2010 @ 1:25 am
More bullshit, little difference. A single seat change in the Senate, which neither party has a clue to what it means, voila!
We surrender, the political class, and their attendant squires can describe it for us later.
Oh by the way, you can all kiss our ass. Our vote is not your right.
Comment by Allen — 1/20/2010 @ 2:11 am
[...] the Republicans would be wise to apply that lesson to their own candidates, and listen to Rick Moran, On the one hand, there is the danger that if the GOP were actually to cooperate with [...]
Pingback by Fausta’s Blog » Blog Archive » Brown wins: Let me rain on your parade, Republicans — 1/20/2010 @ 7:18 am
“. . I say: reconciliation.”
Spoken like someone bound and determined to complete their “lemmings” death march as they kamikaze their way into the history books.
Comment by SShiell — 1/20/2010 @ 8:21 am
Surabaya #12
Blaming the GOP, because the Dems - who hold all the cards - decided to push their plans through with no input from the GOP, because they didn’t need the GOP.
Typical.
Comment by Mike Giles — 1/20/2010 @ 8:45 am
I believe you can put me in the class of stupid, It’s not to blame either party if on the right you believe that what your position is ,is right please roll-up your sleeves and jump-in and make what we have working work better that whats not working work if your not please don’t stop those that are at least trying to contribute to the cause of a better society you weren’t elected to do nothing
Comment by just an american — 1/20/2010 @ 11:11 am