Right Wing Nut House

If the election were held today, I think it likely that both the House and Senate would flip to the Republicans. I have never heard the American people so riled up. And I’m not even including the tea party people. I mean that if you try to talk politics with anyone, the tangible expressions of disgust, anger (even rage), fear, and genuine loathing of Congress and the economic elites that most people feel got us into this mess is evident.

Conventional wisdom - especially on the right - informs us that these attitudes by voters are indicative of a GOP sweep; a can’t miss, ironclad, lock it up and put it in the history books certainty. And if the election were held today, such might be the case.

But the election is still 8 months away. And there are certain factors that could very well work to rob the Republicans of the kind of sea change election that would turn control of one or both chambers over to them.

First, if the Democrats actually get their act together and pass national health insurance, is that automatically the kiss of death, as Howard Dean hinted in remarks earlier this week? Again, conventional wisdom says yes, that the Democrats are toast if national health insurance becomes a reality.

But this fails to take into account a likely rise in premiums by insurance companies that might be used by Democrats to buttress their case that for premiums to come down, the government has to step in. Besides that, polls have shown that individual aspects of health insurance reform - at least as they are explained in the poll questions - are very popular. It should be stressed that the Democrats are not just going to sit idle and do nothing as they watch their majorities slip away. They are going to defend themselves, they have plenty of cash to do it with, and running ads that outline the specifics of Obamacare might change a few people’s minds about it.

And at least some opposition to national health care is because there are those who don’t think it goes far enough. I daresay that this group will not be voting for the GOP anytime soon and will probably - grudgingly - end up accepting Obamacare as passed.

Polls also show that people are almost as mad about the tortuous process used by Democrats to pass reform as they are about the bill in general. Once the bill is passed, the “process” argument disappears and people are free to focus on what the Democrats have done for them. I think the difference between those who support reform and those who don’t will narrow considerably.

This won’t mean that health care reform as an issue will be off the table. It will still play to the GOP’s advantage in that it will drive much of the Republican party to the polls, and anger right leaning independents. But the Democrats have a chance to blunt the worst of the blowback on this and I see no reason why they shouldn’t have some modest success in doing so.

What about the economy as an issue? It is doubtful that employment will rebound much at all between now and November. But as long as things don’t get any worse, there’s a reasonable chance that blame for the bad economy will be a wash between the parties. This CNN poll taken last month reveals 4 times as many people blame Bush for the bad economy than they do Obama.

This is evident if you talk to ordinary people about our economic situation. If you ask someone who is to blame for the bad economy, the overwhelming majority answer “Wall Street” or “the rich.” If you ask specifically which party is at fault, people are apt to get mad at you. They see such a question as a “partisan” question and either say they don’t care, or will split between Obama and Bush. While his positive numbers are down, a surprisingly small number of people I’ve talked to blame Obama.

This is good news for the president because it shows there is still a reservoir of support that he can reclaim if the economy improves a little. We saw something similar in 1982 when the economy was almost as bad as it is today, and Reagan’s approval was hovering around 40%. But few people blamed Reagan for it. The Gipper went on to win 49 states as you recall.

The one area that may really trip up the Democrats is corruption. The recent rash of resignations, retirements, and ethical problems will, if played right by the GOP, undermine the Democrat’s message that they deserve to be kept in the majority in Congress. However, with health care reform and the economy being such significant issues, there’s a decent chance that corruption as an election issue will not resonate quite the same way for Republicans in 2010 as it did for Democrats in 2006.

The one intangible that could make or break the race for both parties is President Obama. His fortunes will rise and fall with the performance of the economy. If the Democrats can manufacture the perception that the country is on the right track, Obama might not be such a drag on local races. The opposite is true, of course, If things are only marginally better, Democrats will suffer.

All of this might be moot anyway and I may be full of it. But I don’t think overconfidence is warranted by Republicans at this point in time. With 8 months to go, there’s a lot of history to be made before Americans go to the polls and figure out which party is more capable of getting us out of this mess.