The special election to fill the remainder of convicted felon Rep. Duke Cunningham’s term ended up a little closer than some Republicans would have liked but failed to reveal any hints that they are in any more trouble than they already are. In short, the Democrats still appear to have a better than 50-50 chance of taking the House in November.
The California Congressional seat vacated by jailed former representative Randy “Duke” Cunningham will remain in Republican hands after a special election Tuesday in which a lobbyist narrowly defeated a Democratic school board member.
Republican Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby after an combative and expensive race that centered on issues of government corruption and illegal immigration. With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Bilbray had 56,016 votes or 49.5 percent, the Associated Press reported, and Busby trailed with 51,202 votes or 45 percent.
While it is true that Bilbray failed to crack the 50% mark (in a district that former Rep. Cunningham garnered 64% of the vote in 2002), Democrats would be hard pressed to claim much of a victory. In the 2002 contest, the Democratic challenger received a little less than 51,000 votes - about the same number of votes as Busby received yesterday. Despite a heinous corruption scandal, general discontent with Republicans nationwide, and President Bush’s low approval numbers, Democrats got about the same number of votes as they did in the last off year election. And despite the reduced turnout, it can be argued that Democratic voters, smelling blood in the water, were much more likely to turn out than Republicans.
And by removing the incumbency factor as well as a recognizing that most Republican voters stayed home yesterday, Bilbray’s totals, while nothing to crow about, are close to what one could reasonably expect. I might add that five months is not enough time for Bilbray to do much fence mending or to establish himself in the district. But unless something truly horrible happens between now and November or the economy tanks, Bilbray should win comfortably.
Elsewhere in California, the Democratic primary race in the 11th district to see who takes on House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo took a somewhat unexpected turn when a moderate Navy Vet Steve Filson was outpolled by Jerry McNerney, an establishment Democrat of a definitely more liberal stripe.
Why the national Democrats thought Pombo was vulnerable is an interesting case study in wishful thinking. In order for any challenger - Republican or Democrat - to win (barring scandal), they must have a rock solid base from which at least 25% of the challenger’s total vote can be relied upon. This is usually a state house or senate seat. Neither McNerney or Filson filled that bill which makes the national Democrat’s interest in this seat puzzling. I suppose their internal numbers showed Pombo was having some problems. But for an incumbent who received 60% of the vote in the last off year election to be considered vulnerable seems to be a stretch. Pombo should make short work of McNerney in November.
The Republicans didn’t help themselves any in the Busby-Bilbray dust-up but neither did they shoot themselves in the foot. All things considered, that’s about the best news the Republicans have had in quite a while.
UPDATE
Allah rounds up some react from the usual suspects and highlights a few other races as well.
Happy Father’s Day, oh Deity of Deities! Actually, I was thinking of giving you one of these but since you’re content with bumping up your ecosysem stats, I will grant your request.
8:48 am
[...] Moran’s underwhelmed by the nutroots’ moral victory, too. I’ve linked to pretty much everything he’s written over the past month, so there’s no sense stopping now. [...]
10:26 am
Republican Wins California Congressional Race
Here’s the Washington Post story:The California Congressional seat vacated by jailed former representative Randy Duke Cunningham will remain in Republican hands after a special election Tuesday in which a lobbyist narrowly defeated a Democratic school…
11:36 am
All i’ve saw on the internet the past 30 days was, the way the 50th in Ca. goes, the way the country goes in Nov. This was supposed to be the final nail in the coffin of the republican party, what happened, and is KOS now 0 for 500? A blind hog finds an acorn once in a while but KOS can’t find his a** with both hands or one winner out of thousands of chances. Yep, the dim-wits need his leadership. LMAO
11:51 am
[...] Hell, you would think after the Republican was put in jail for corruption that a Democrat would win easily since their WHOLE strategy is to run on the "culture of corruption" mantra and they lost. Does this really give them a "moral victory"? Don't think so. Plus they couldn't get anymore voters out as Rick at Right Wing Nut House noticed: Democrats would be hard pressed to claim much of a victory. In the 2002 contest, the Democratic challenger received a little less than 51,000 votes – about the same number of votes as Busby received yesterday. Despite a heinous corruption scandal, general discontent with Republicans nationwide, and President Bush’s low approval numbers, Democrats got about the same number of votes as they did in the last off year election. And despite the reduced turnout, it can be argued that Democratic voters, smelling blood in the water, were much more likely to turn out than Republicans. [...]
12:35 pm
I’m not sure what you are saying in this piece. What about this election tells you that the Demos still have a 50-50 chance? You never really told us. You did link that bastion of free speech, the Post. They didn’t really know either. Ms Busby got the normal %45 for a Demo. Mr. Belray got %50 plus the anti-immigration candidate got the other %5. I wonder who that %5 would vote for in Nov? Even running to replace a disgraced Repub. didn’t seem to make a difference. What about this race tells us how this country will vote in Nov? It seems we are going through the “exit poll” syndrome. You are getting false positives and will be surprised when the fall rolls around. I’m sure you have picked up a few new moonbat friends the last few days.
12:42 pm
GW:
You’re right - I didn’t make it clear about the Dems chances for taking control of the House in November.
The inside the beltway politicos like Evans and Novak, Charlie Cook, and others that I’ve read have all said in the last month that the Dems are close enough in about 25 races to score a takeover.
The reason the magic number is 25 rather than 15 (Rep. margin in the House) is that the Republicans are set to take between 7-10 open seats themselves. So in order for the Dems to win, they need a net gain of 15 seats or 22-25 margin of victory in November.
That number of very vulnerable Republicans could go as high as 35. But no one is expecting the Dems to sweep them all.
1:31 pm
Premature Celebration
Though the Republican candidate narrowly prevailed in the election to fill the House seat of convicted felon Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA-50), Rick Moran thinks that The Democrats still have a good chance of regaining the House in November….
3:26 pm
It goes to show that attacks on the “culture of corrpution” won’t work. Voters believe, with good reason, that BOTH parties are corrupt. To win Dems need to focus on the economy, heatlh care, Bush’s incompetence, and the catastrophe known as the War in Iraq.
5:26 am
Thursday Morning Links
The return of Patches generates hate mail against RI GOP. Surely that makes good sense.The science behind the swerve of the Adidas World Cup ball. BBCLouis Gottschalk. From a book review in the NYSun: "When he died in 1868, Louis Moreau Gottschalk wa