Right Wing Nut House

Facing increasing opposition at home as well as harsh criticism from the army, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will accept a US-French cease fire proposal that includes precious little of what he was demanding just a short week ago.

Until last weekend, Olmert was insisting that any cease fire include a strong international force, independent of UNIFIL with robust rules of engagement, immediate and unconditional return of the captured Israeli soldiers, the disarming of Hizbullah, and no withdrawal of Israeli troops until the international force arrived.

He settled for considerably less:

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, would ask the UN force to monitor a full cessation of hostilities and help Lebanese forces gain control over an area that has previously been under de facto authority of Hizbullah.
It emphasizes the need for the “unconditional release” of the two IDF soldiers captured July 12, but does not make a direct demand for their freedom.

Additionally, it calls on Israel and Lebanon to agree to a long-term solution under which Hizbullah would be disarmed.
The Security Council was expected to vote on the draft at 1 a.m. (IST).

About 2,000 UN troops and observers are now stationed in Lebanon. The draft would authorize an increase to a total of 15,000 troops.

The text of the draft does not specify which chapter of the UN Charter the force would be authorized under. Instead, it says the force’s mandate would include several elements: monitoring the cessation of hostilities, accompanying Lebanese troops as they deploy and as Israel withdraws, and ensuring humanitarian access

Haaretz is reporting that in fact, the expanded UNIFIL force will operate under Chapter 6 rules which are considerably less forceful than Chapter 7:

Britain’s UN Ambassador Emyr Jones-Parry said the resolution would give the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon an enhanced mandate to help coordinate the eventual withdrawal of Israel Defense Forces troops. But it would ultimately be deployed under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter - which Israel has previously opposed.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni spoke Friday morning with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Livni demanded that the international force be under Chapter 7 and not a modified version of chapter 6 as the French representatives offered.

Israeli officials familiar with the negotiations predicted Friday morning that the U.S. will hold firm in regard to this demand and will not compromise on the resolution. An Israeli official told Haaretz that if the resolution will be watered down to an unacceptable level Israel will not halt any military operation.

So Hassan Nassrallah will emerge from his bunker in triumph, probably to massive demonstrations of support in Beirut and elsewhere in the Arab world. The question of Hizbullah “disarming” and the Shebaa Farms will be held over until later along with prisoner exchange. And Olmert?

The long knives are out already and it is doubtful his government can survive this abject surrender. Israeli politics is about to become very interesting. Whoever emerges from the coming scrum will have a monumental job to do. He must rebuild the confidence of the people in their army and their leadership. He must clean house in the IDF. And he must prepare for Round Two of the Israeli-Islamist conflict. Because this isn’t a cease fire as much as it is a battlefield pause. Whether they resume fighting in 6 months or a year doesn’t matter. If nothing else, Iran will see to it that there will be another war. They gained so much from this one, the temptation will be great to follow up their triumph whenever they see an opening.

Lebanon will continue to limp along. The March 14th coalition will hopefully continue in power with a little more sober realization of the dangers of having a terrorist organization in their midst. But Nasrallah is untouchable for the foreseeable future. Any attempt to disarm him will either bring down Siniora’s government or start a civil war. And the democrats should expect no help from the UNIFIL force in disarming the terrorists. That’s not what they’re there for. They are there only until the Lebanese “army” sits down in the south to continue their existence as a barracks army. The real power will still be Nasrallah and his fighters.

The forces of freedom took a huge hit today. But there are defeats in every war and it is up to us to redouble our efforts to confront a now emboldened enemy. I have a terrible feeling that we’ll get a chance to redeem ourselves sooner rather than later.

UPDATE

Allah is on the ball, already rounding up MSM news and react. I expect he’ll have blog reaction as well just as soon as that starts trickling in. Check Hot Air often.

The candle flame gutters. Its little pool of light trembles. Darkness gathers. The demons begin to stir. [Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science As a Candle in the Dark]

More evidence that when it comes to learning about science and technology, Americans are the smartest butter churners, blacksmiths, and wheelwrights in the world:

This is the result of a new survey of people’s attitudes toward evolution, country by country.

What is it that the rest of the enlightened world knows and we don’t? Are all the technologically advanced peoples on this planet under some magic spell of the evil Darwinists? What are the real world consequences of this kind of scientific ignorance?

There is little doubt that science education in this country is a joke. While American 4th graders score very well on international standardized tests, finishing 3rd in the most recent TIMSS Report (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study), it’s all downhill from there. Our 8th graders finish in the middle of the pack while our seniors in high school are almost dead last.

The good news is that we are very big country so that we still have a fairly large pool of scientifically inclined students who get advanced degrees and fill out the ranks in industry, government, and research firms. This Rand study shows that there is no shortage of qualified Americans graduating with degrees in life sciences who go to work for our bio/pharm companies at the moment.

The bad news is also in that Rand study; other countries are graduating many more scientific and engineering students per capita and will begin to seriously press our graduates for jobs in a globalized economy in the coming years.

I disagree with PZ Meyers who was kind enough to reprint the table above. He blames “God and the Republicans:”

Americans are being rolled in large numbers by an ideological ‘elite’ nested in our churches and in the Republican party—the reason we are falling so far behind in our understanding of the biological sciences is that political and religious authority figures are lying to the people and fostering ignorance, and Americans are dumbly falling for it…and the more ignorant they are, the more they depend on those false authorities.

Americans aren’t second to last because they are “famously independent.” They’re failing biology because they’re god-soaked sheep, and the Republican party has exploited that failing.

Nonsense! First of all, the grim figures about science education in America relative to the rest of the world have been trending downward since the early 1970’s, long before the religious right achieved influence in Republican politics. It goes hand in hand with declines in our international rankings in mathematics as well which has nothing to do with God or praying or belief in the supernatural.

PZ’s explanation is simplistic. It fails to take into account the hidden failure of our science education; that poverty and rotten schools have more to do with attitudes toward evolution than “Republican elites” or even God.

It goes without saying that those school systems - mostly located in large cities and the rural south - don’t need a belief in God to keep them from understanding evolution. All they need is local government (run by Democrats for the most part) to run the schools so incompetently that students can graduate while lacking the scientific fundamentals.

This table shows the huge disparities between achievement scores by race. The crisis in science education in the inner city is a direct result of neglect as well as a cultural bias on the part of students where any academic achievement is frowned upon.

And if PZ’s explanation is correct, how do you explain this?

Between 1995 and 2003, U.S. eighth grade students improved their performance on the Trends in International Math and Science Study (TIMSS) assessment, which measures mastery of curriculum-based knowledge and skills. However, scores of fourth graders generally remained flat over the same period. Both U.S. fourth and eighth grade students scored above the international average on the 2003 TIMSS, in which both developed and developing countries participated.

A ray of good news that sort of knocks some of PZ’s argument for a slight loop. During almost the exact period of Republican ascendancy, scores for eighth graders improved relative to the rest of the world. At the very least, this shows that other factors are at work when making judgements about our very real problems with science education.

I know what PZ is saying and I share some of his concerns. But to place the blame solely on a belief in the almighty or one political party is a stretch.

As for the notion that conservatives in government are playing politics with science I might ask why this is news? To the extent that the Bush Administration has injected politics into global warming research or other scientific projects one might better ask why is it that this is news when Republicans are in power and not the other party? The political arm twisting at EPA that has been going on for 25 years over second hand smoke has led to shoddy research, poor methodology, and perhaps even jiggered conclusions. It’s no accident that there were 82 studies funded during the Clinton Administration on second hand smoke effects. The trial lawyers were pleased with this avalanche of studies that they could introduce in their class action suits against the tobacco companies.

Aids research has enjoyed similar political attention from Democratic Administrations in order to pander to one interest group or another. And anyone who can’t see the politics on both sides of the global warming debate when it comes to interpreting data needs to take off their rose colored glasses and start paying attention.

My point is that there is enough politicization of science as it is. Blaming Republicans or “god-soaked sheep” is shallow thinking indeed. Better to address other aspects of the problem as well before the rest of the world surpasses us in scientific fields vital both to our economy and national security.

Join me this morning from 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Today, we’ll have more on the terrorist plot in Great Britain including some information on the kind of explosive that the terrorists were going to use. We’ll also examine the political fall out in Israel as a cease fire may be drawing near. And I’ll examine some of the key races in the House and Senate this fall.

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The votes are in and have been tabulated from the most recent Watchers Council vote. And the winner in the Council category is “They’re Not What You’ve Been Told, They’re Our Neighbors’ Kids” from newcomer AbaGav. Finishing in a three way tie for second (would have been four if I bothered to vote last week) were:

2. “More on Doha” from The Glittering Eye
2. “The Qana Strike… the Making of a Hezbo-wood Production” by Joshuapundit
2. “Guilt versus Shame” from Shrinkwrapped.

In the non Council category, Treppenwitz won with “A Difficult Lesson.”

Let’s all give a big welcome to the excellent blog Soccer Dad who joined the group this week.

And if you’d like to participate in the Watchers Council vote, go here and follow instructions.

Within the last 72 hours, confusion and dissension has racked the IDF as the Israelis suffered their worst day of the war, losing 15 soldiers with an additional 38 wounded.

The situation couldn’t get much worse.

The furious finger pointing within the IDF is one thing. But there is also bitter criticism of Prime Minister Olmert for being too slow, too timid, and not listening to his commanders who have been telling him for three weeks that only a massive ground incursion into Lebanon will win the day by seriously damaging Hizbullah and recreating the buffer zone that will prevent the terrorists from attacking civilians.

What has many officers upset is the sudden elevation of IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz’s deputy, Major General Kaplinsky, as de facto commander in the north. This has angered northern commander General Udi Adam and many officers on his staff who see this move by Halutz as an attempt to deflect criticism from himself to Adam for the slow progress being made by the IDF on the battlefield.

According to the officers, Adam showed “loyalty to the system under the very difficult circumstances that were created. He gets alot of support from us, his subordinates, and for now he will probably stay at his job until the end of the war. But he has a bellyfull against Halutz and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and there’s no doubt that when things calm down, he’ll express his opinions.”

Adam said yesterday to his subordinates, “the important thing now is to win the war. We’ll have time later to deal with this saga.”

The officers added that “a smear campaign” had been directed against Adam over the past few weeks,”to blame him for all the failures of the war.” It was carried out, the officers said, in a way that was “mean and low.” They said the purpose was clear: “to cover all kinds of mistakes that other people made and to turn the GOC into a scapegoat.” According to the officers, “Adam may be accused of all kinds of things. But the claims that he doesn’t understand tactics, that he was lacking in knowledge and is not a real leader, are false.”

Given these circumstances, who should get the blame for the dramatic rise in casualties in the last 24 hours? If Kaplinsky came in thinking he should immediately light a fire under the men and officers under his command, could it be that the increased casualties are the result of more aggressive movement by forces under his command?

We can’t be sure, but it is a telling coincidence.

There has also been fierce, almost unprecedented criticism of Prime Minister Olmert:

According to informed sources, there is an almost total breakdown in trust and confidence between the General Staff and the PM’s office. They have described the situation as “even worse than the crises that followed Ben Gurion’s decision to disband the Palmach, and Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan’s cynical decision to place all the blame for the Yom Kippur fiasco on the IDF’s shoulders.

Senior IDF officers have been saying that the PM bears sole responsibility for the current unfavorable military situation, with Hezbollah still holding out after almost a month of fighting.

According to these officers, Olmert was presented with an assiduously prepared and detailed operational plan for the defeat and destruction of Hezbollah within 10-14 days, which the IDF has been formulating for the past 2-3 years.

In fact, General Adam presented Halutz with “detailed operational plans as early as July 23″ for the massive ground assault into southern Lebanon approved yesterday by the Security Cabinet.

Those plans called for airborne landings south of the Litani River, bypassing the deeply dug in Hizbullah positions near the border as well as seaborne landings of troops north of the river. In effect, the IDF would then have put Hizbullah in a giant pincers, hammering them from the north with the paratroopers in their rear while holding them in place with forces from northern command on the border. The result:

This would have surprised Hezbollah, which would have had to come out of its fortifications and confront the IDF in the open, in order to avoid being isolated, hunted down and eventually starved into a humiliating submission.

This was exactly what the IDF senior command wanted, as Israeli military doctrine, based on the Wehrmacht’s blitzkrieg doctrine, has traditionally been one of rapid mobile warfare, designed to surprise and outflank an enemy.

So what happened? Evidently, Olmert had other plans:

According to senior military sources, who have been extensively quoted in both the Hebrew media and online publications with close ties to the country’s defense establishment, Olmert nixed the second half of the plan, and authorized only air strikes on southern Lebanon, not initially on Beirut.

Although the Premier has yet to admit his decision, let alone provide a satisfactory explanation, it seems that he hoped futilely for a limited war.

[snip]

The decision to cancel the landings on the Litani River and authorize a very limited call up of reserves forced the ground forces to fight under very adverse conditions. Instead of outflanking a heavily fortified area with overwhelming forcers, they had to attack from the direction most expected, with insufficient forces. The result, high casualties and modest achievements.

Whatever his reasons for trying to limit the conflict (Condi Rice supported limited objectives for the Israelis from the beginning of the war), Olmert may be losing the unqualified support he’s been getting from George Bush. Although there’s not much chance, the President evidently wants diplomacy to play out at the UN before Israel commits to the offensive:

The troops were already rolling late Wednesday when they were ordered to halt. It appears heavy US pressure delayed the offensive to allow diplomacy to run its course. A senior minister said Wednesday that Israel might delay the expansion for 2-3 days for that purpose.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is ready to wait with the offensive until the weekend, said a senior government official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss the issue with reporters. The offensive could begin earlier if Hizbullah launches a major attack on Israel, the official said.

Cabinet minister Rafi Eitan confirmed the government’s decision to wait. “There are diplomatic considerations,” he told Israel Radio. “There is still a chance that an international force will arrive in he area. We have no interest in being in south Lebanon. We have an interest in peace on our borders.”

Those diplomatic efforts to end the war appear to be bogged down by French insistence that there be an immediate cease fire followed by the deployment of the Lebanese army into the south, replacing the IDF as guarantors of Israeli security:

The word in New York yesterday was that France had made it clear to the U.S. that unless a new version of the draft proposal was reached that included the revisions it wanted, France would initiate a new resolution of its own. The two countries agree that the first version they formulated needed to be revised.

[snip]

France yesterday offered to redraft UNIFIL’s mandate, devised when the force was deployed in South Lebanon in 1978, to enable the UN to reinforce and authorize the force to exercise a more effective presence. The French also suggested to the Americans that a symbolic multinational force be stationed at Shaba Farms.

The U.S. reiterated its position that it would outright reject any revision to the draft resolution that undermined assurance of keeping Hezbollah from reinfiltrating South Lebanon.

Any cease fire without a strong multinational force to be deployed in southern Lebanon will be rejected by Olmert and probably the Americans as well. Anything less would be a huge defeat for the Israelis as Hizbullah leader Hassan Nassrallah would have his men almost certainly filter back into positions they have abandoned over the last 3 weeks. Getting around the poorly trained and equipped Lebanese army would be a simple matter unless there was a strong international presence to block them. Hence, any resolution offered by France that simply augments UNIFIL will be rejected out of hand by Olmert.

Some analysts think that many of the moves Olmert is making now are being done with an eye toward the post war political battles that are sure to break out as a result of the disappointing performance of the IDF so far. That may be. But unless Olmert wants an unmitigated disaster on his hands, the IDF has to have a clear cut victory in the south following this massive offensive or the war of perceptions will have been won by Hizbullah regardless of what happens at the United Nations.

Join me this morning from 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Today we’ll have breaking news on the thwarted terror plot in London. We’ll also look very closely at counterterrorism efforts here in America and ask, is it enough? We’ll have the latest from Lebanon. And Jim Hoft of the blog Gateway Pundit will join me later to talk about his brilliant expose of a New York Times photo spread that forced the newspaper to issue a “correction.”

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War? What war?

British police say they have disrupted an apparent plot to blow up planes in mid-flight, prompting authorities to raise the nation’s threat level to “critical.”

The highest possible alert level, raised on Thursday by the British Home Office, means “an attack is expected imminently,” and authorities have said no hand luggage would be allowed onto planes from UK airports. (Full story)

Major delays are expected at key airports around the world, with Brussels Airport in Belgium among the first to cancel flights to the UK, news agencies reported.

London’s Heathrow airport was closed to most European flights Thursday morning following a heightened terrorist alert, officials said in a report from The Associated Press.

That’s the problem with this “so called” War on Terror. Just when you’re all comfy, and smug, and self satisfied about how you’ve ferreted out Shrub’s plot to become King by ginning up fear over some guy cowering in a cave who couldn’t hurt a flea, the real world reaches out and bites you in the ass:

The explosives would have been smuggled aboard six airliners as hand luggage - and could have been missed during x-ray screening.

Speaking at Scotland Yard, Deputy Commissioner Paul Stephenson said he was confident the police had disrupted a plot “to cause mass murder on an unimaginable scale”.

He said 21 people arrested in London, Birmingham and the Thames Valley were still being held - the culmination of a covert counter-terrorist operation lasting several months.

As is their wont, the Brit media identifies the culprits only as “British born Asian men.” Even with the Sword of Allah poised above their necks, the British media refuses to help their fellow citizens face up to the threat by identifying the true nature of their would be executioners; radical, fundamentalist Islamists.

Yeah, I know. Timothy McVeigh, right? Put a sock in it. He and Terry Nichols, whose mail order Filipino bride may have introduced him to members of a Philippine offshoot of al-Qaeda, (McVeigh’s attorney hinted as much while no one has bothered to explain Nichols’ trips to the Philippines in the year before the bombing that coincide with the movements of al-Qaeda members ) were amateurs, playing at being revolutionaries. These guys in London are the real deal.

And if the McVeighs of the world worry you more than the fanatics who tried to pull this off, I would like to point out that for every potential Timothy McVeigh there are probably 100 Islamic mass murderer wannabes out there itching for an opportunity to martyr themselves.

No. I am sick to death of tiptoeing around this issue of the true nature of our enemies. That kind of “sensitivity” may be fine when speaking about groups with legitimate grievances against society. I am not necessarily totally against the notion of what we on the right sometimes mis-identify as political correctness.

But the time has come to put away childish things and grow up. Our enemies will not give us much leeway to indulge us our puerile need to universalize this threat lest we offend someone. They have no such problem in identifying who they see as the enemy. Why should we?

I’ll be updating this post as more information becomes available today.

UPDATE

For starters, hit Hot Air. Allah must have been up all night getting every scrap of information available from the MSM. And bloggers are starting to weigh in too.

One of the wisest old heads on Islam and the Middle East is issuing a shocking warning: Beware of August 22:

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to “the farthest mosque,” usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

Bernard Lewis is no tin foil hat nutcase. He is as sober and as realistic as anyone you’re likely to listen to about Islam. Here’s a good backgrounder on Lewis written by Reuel Marc Gerecht.

Lewis also makes a chilling statement about why mutual assured destruction (MAD) may not work with President Ahmadinejad:

There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic worldview of Iran’s present rulers. This worldview and expectation, vividly expressed in speeches, articles and even schoolbooks, clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples.

[snip]

A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Mr. Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran, since one may surely assume that the Israelis have made the necessary arrangements for a counterstrike even after a nuclear holocaust in Israel.

The first of these possible deterrents might well be of concern to the Palestinians–but not apparently to their fanatical champions in the Iranian government. The second deterrent–the threat of direct retaliation on Iran–is, as noted, already weakened by the suicide or martyrdom complex that plagues parts of the Islamic world today, without parallel in other religions, or for that matter in the Islamic past. This complex has become even more important at the present day, because of this new apocalyptic vision.

Lewis has fingered something that most other “experts” either refuse to acknowledge or are simply unable to grasp; the determined fanaticism of our enemy.

This weird and dangerous blind spot in many leading academics, diplomats, and even military and intelligence analysts is something I’ve noted before. By insisting that fanatics like Ahmadinejad can be reasoned with, or bargained with, or deterred in any “traditional” way, the experts are able to rationalize almost any policy or proposal except confronting the madness in an effort to totally marginalize it or destroy it.

We’ve all heard the “explanations.” The Iranian President is “playing to his domestic supporters” with his apocalyptic rhetoric. He really doesn’t mean it. He’s a “rational actor” on the world stage and can be trusted to keep any agreement he reaches because it is in his “interest” to do so. He won’t give nukes to terrorists because he is deterred from doing so by the prospect of a massive retaliatory strike by the US or Israel.

Like colonial Indian negotiators trying to end border predations, the diplomats believe that by offering nice, shiny baubles to the Iranian President - WTO membership, unlimited enrichment of reactor fuel, a place at the table of civilized nations - they can entice him to give up his dream of building a nuclear weapon and destroying the “Great Satan.” This attitude presupposes that the Iranian President is interested in any of those things except as a strategy that would lull the West into somnolence and assuage their fears for a time.

With almost a childlike faith in inspections and monitoring, the experts would then pronounce the fanatic “in a box” and made relatively harmless.

And we all lived happily ever after…

The idea that Ahmadinejad can’t be deterred, or bought off, or deflected in any way from his fanatical, religiously inspired goal is such an anathema to most of our “wise men” that perhaps it is a concept that simply escapes them. Like the theory of quantum mechanics escapes almost everyone, maybe there is nothing in these very smart, very able people’s life experience that would allow them to face up to and recognize that, like Hitler, Ahamadinejad is announcing exactly what he intends to do, so pleased he is with his grand designs that he simply must share them with the world.

It took American soldiers fighting in the Pacific only a few run ins with the Japanese army to understand the kind of fanaticism they were up against. The average GI being a practical sort of fellow and very interested in staying alive, realized very quickly not to trust the Japanese when they surrendered. This led to many incidents where the Japanese (whose martial code saw surrender as the ultimate disgrace) would only pretend to surrender in order to get the Americans to expose themselves. Not a few GI’s were killed as the enemy would reinitiate combat once the Americans were in range.

And the Japanese human wave attacks were enormously disconcerting at first to our men. These “Banzai charges” where the enemy was killed to the last man in what appeared to be a futile gesture but was actually part of the Bushido (”Code of the Warrior”), troubled the GI’s. But they adapted very quickly so that even the psychological impact of the charges were lessened over time.

Perhaps our experts simply have not been able to apply the necessary lessons of history to the present circumstances with Ahmadinejad. Perhaps, like most diplomats, they are so in love with the idea of “process” that the end result of any negotiations aren’t as important as the negotiations themselves. This is a mindset that seems especially prevalent with our Middle East diplomatic community. For 60 years, the “process” has dominated. But what have been the practical, real world benefits accrued over that time? To the United States? To Israel? During the cold war, this “process” kept the lid on the Middle East so that there would be no direct confrontation between the superpowers who might feel obligated to come to the rescue of one of their surrogates if things got too out of control.

We saw this in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War as the Russians, fearing a complete collapse of their Egyptian client, almost sent combat troops to assist Sadat. Nixon responded by going to a high nuclear alert. That disabused the Russians of any idea they may have had of intervening in the conflict and Nixon cancelled the alert within 48 hours.

The Russians, being rational actors, understood Nixon’s message and stood down. Would Ahmadinejad do the same? Bernard Lewis has his doubts. And when an old wise man like Lewis can look fanaticism in the face and speak the truth, we should listen closely. And we should hope that anyone anywhere who has anything to do with any potential negotiations with that dangerous fanatic is listening also.

The French are if nothing else, a consistent bunch. Faced with the choice of standing by the Israelis who are after all, representing the West in this war with Islamists or groveling before the Sheiks of Araby, the French have chosen to diplomatically betray the US and Israel by abandoning the formulation of a “cessation of hostilities” with the IDF remaining in place until an international force was deployed to a position advocated by the Arabs:

The French-American alliance at the United Nations over a Mideast cease-fire agreement is crumbling, sources tell FOX News.

The French U.N. delegation has joined with Arab nations and is now calling for a complete and immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a condition of any cease-fire, the sources said.

In addition, the French have reportedly agreed with Arab demands that the Lebanese force be accompanied only by UNIFIL, with no international force to be deployed.

This is a total and complete surrender to the Arab/Hizbullah position on the resolution. In fact, Hizbullah has stated from the beginning that there will be no cease fire until the Israelis leave Lebanese soil.

Very well, says Prime Minister Olmert. Be careful what you wish for:

Israel’s Security Cabinet on Wednesday approved a wider ground offensive in south Lebanon that was expected to take 30 days as part of a new push to badly damage Hezbollah, Israeli Cabinet minister Eli Yishai said.

The decision was made with nine ministers in favor and three abstaining. The Security Cabinet authorized troops to push to the Litani River some 18 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border. Currently, some 10,000 soldiers are fighting Hezbollah in a four-mile-deep stretch from the Israel-Lebanon border.

Yishai said the proposed operation was expected to take 30 days. However, an internationally backed cease-fire was expected to be imposed well before then.

“The assessment is it will last 30 days. I think it is wrong to make this assessment. I think it will take a lot longer,” he said.

It seems clear that no cease fire resolution will be voted on this week. In fact, I daresay that as long as the French and the rest of the Security Council are insisting that Israel leave Lebanon and that no international force be deployed, any cease fire passed by the Council would not be honored by the Israelis. (It is likely we’d veto any such resolution anyway).

Deploying the Lebanese Army is not enough for either the US or Israel. The fact that their loyalty to the government of Prime Minister Siniora is an open question is one thing. More importantly, they are ill trained, ill equipped, barely better than an armed mob. They could not hope to stand up to Hizbullah if the terrorists sought to reclaim positions in southern Lebanon abandoned as a result of the IDF offensive.

I find it extremely significant that the cabinet believes this operation to the Litani River and beyond will take at least 30 days. One must assume that Olmert would not have even considered combat operations lasting that long without at least getting the US Administration’s opinion on it.

And my guess would be that he’s no longer dealing with Condi but rather the President himself:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has become increasingly dismayed over President Bush’s support for Israel to continue its war with Hezbollah.

State Department sources said Ms. Rice has been repeatedly stymied in her attempts to pressure Israel to end strikes against Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. The sources said the secretary’s trip to the Middle East last week was torpedoed by the Israeli air strike of a Lebanese village in which 25 people were killed.

“I’ve never seen her so angry,” an aide said.

The disagreement between Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice is over the ramifications of U.S. support for Israel’s continued offensive against Lebanon. The sources said Mr. Bush believes that Israel’s failure to defeat Hezbollah would encourage Iranian adventurism in neighboring Iraq. Ms. Rice has argued that the United States would be isolated both in the Middle East and Europe at a time when the administration seeks to build a consensus against Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

In the past, Secretary’s rarely allow this kind of dirty laundry in public. And when it is aired, it is usually done with their blessing. Condi may have been shunted aside in this crisis and the Cheney faction is once again ascendant in foreign policy.

While this will lead to more dreary charges by the left that Cheney runs the government, I think that this is a case where Bush may have already decided that in order to bring the Iranians down a peg or two, Hizbullah must be defanged. And if the UN isn’t going to do it, perhaps Israel is the only bunch that can.

We haven’t heard what Bolton thinks about this yet because the resolution is still being considered by all sides. But I’ll bet he’s steaming at the French for their blatant about face in order to curry favor with the Arabs. So be it. If France wants to end up on the losing side of history once again, let her continue with her fantasies that as a player on the world stage, she actually matters.

Bush better be prepared for some truly nasty invective tossed his way over the next 30 days. I admire his stubbornness in this regard but Condi may have a point of sorts. Will there be anyone standing with us by the time a cease fire is in place?

Only the Anglo-American alliance of Britain, the Aussies, and us. It can get very lonely when you’re the only one in the world who thinks you are doing the right thing.

This article originally appears in The American Thinker

As I recline in my virtual hammock this lovely Midwestern midsomer’s day, feeling the warm, gentle breezes as they waft across my face (”God’s air conditioning” we call it out here), my thoughts turn to the currents and eddies of history that are churning just below the placid surface of the mundane, the day to day happenings in the world. Another war here. Some kind of dust-up in Africa. Is there no end to Asian “economic miracles?” And old man Europe, grown senile and oblivious to all but its ever growing number of pensioners, waits patiently, almost willingly, for the sword of Allah to smite them.

It is what’s happening behind history’s curtain that is actually what matters. Demographers call them “trends.” Historians might refer to them as “underlying forces.” Judging by what these trends or forces are telling us, there is absolutely no reason for an American living at this time in history to be optimistic about much of anything.

It could be that my “black dog” has a hold of me today and that tomorrow I’ll wake up and take a deep breath, ready to go out and face the dragons again with a sneer and a smile. Or it could be the melancholy thought that summer is nearly over and the prospect of facing another Chicago winter depresses me. (I used to wonder why older people in the Midwest moved to Florida and Arizona when they retired. No longer.).

But upon reflection, I think not. This is more than a passing wave of unease, more than a troubling flutter in the pit of my stomach. The world is changing in ways we can barely grasp. We are unable to discern the true nature of our discontent because in a way, it is hard to believe that things could change so quickly that our perceptions about events have become either obsolete or laughably false.

When in doubt, blame Bush. But truthfully, what is happening below history’s radar has been in motion since before the Berlin Wall fell. Some decisions we’ve made in the last decade and a half have exacerbated our dilemma. Others have simply put off the inevitable. All told, where we are today is the result of many things beyond our control - birthrates, political changes in other countries, an aging population in the west, and a flexing of political and military muscle by an emerging reaction to modernity itself. The world in the 21st century is moving too fast, leaving too many behind. And the rush to catch up is going to get very bloody.

We are not just facing Islamic fundamentalism as a foe. We are also fighting the unrealized expectations of most of the planet’s inhabitants. Those expectations have been raised to stratospheric heights largely as a result of the accomplishments of the west. In some quarters, this has bred resentment, a belief that our success has come at the expense of others who are more worthy, more deserving in the eyes of Allah. In many, these expectations have fueled dreams of freedom and a belief that anything is possible if you are brave, work hard, and have faith in the future.

I regret to say there are many, many more of the former than there are of the latter. As I write this, it has becoming enormously hazardous for the freedom seekers to preach their gospel of change and hope.

In Lebanon, the Cedar Revolution is becoming a distant memory. The coalition of well meaning but ultimately weak politicians were unable to face the prospect of confronting the evil in their midst. They thought that they had all the time in the world to deal with Hizbullah, to try and fit them someplace into their crazy quilt patchwork of a confessional society - not realizing that somewhere, a clock was ticking and that their ever vigilant and determined neighbor to the north could only allow so much provocation before taking matters into their own hands in order to insure their own survival.

Now as they survey the wreckage of their country and of their revolution, dark hints from Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah point to a post-war Lebanon where opposition to the terrorists means signing you own death warrant. How that drama will play out is anyone’s guess.

In Iraq, hope has turned to despair as a bloody cycle of revenge killings is spiraling out control, aided and abetted by the anti-American, pro-Iranian zealot Muqtada al-Sadr. The agony of the Iraqi people has been made worse by a strange paralysis that has gripped the government who seem unable and unwilling to disarm the militias and stop the killing.

Both Nasrallah and al-Sadr are being goaded on by the Iranians and their crazed but canny leader President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Caught with his hand in the nuclear cookie jar more than once, the world still seems unwilling to take the steps necessary to keep the most powerful weapon in the world out of the hands of the most irresponsible leader in the world. If ever a recipe for unmitigated disaster was staring us right in the face, it is a nuclear capable Ahmadinejad and his unhinged hatred for Israel and the United States.

In Somalia, where a group calling themselves the Islamic Judges is systematically turning that forlorn and war torn land into a future base for jihad to Darfur where the slaughter continues unmercifully, to Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, - good and decent men everywhere seem to be in the grip of some horrible debilitating disease that saps their strength and steals their hope.

Then there are the deliberately self deluded who are either too stupid or too cowardly to recognize the evil in the first place. With a cognitive dissonance that would be laughable in less serious times, they blame the violence on those who are responding to the violence. Perhaps the apogee of this phenomenon occurred when the Secretary General of the United Nations opined that it appears that the State of Israel had committed a war crime by accidentally bombing a building in Qana, Lebanon killing 28 civilians while never mentioning that Israel’s enemy gleefully launches barrage after barrage of murderous rockets at Israeli cities deliberately trying to kill as many innocents as possible.

Hizbullah and other terrorists are actually being cheered on by people all over the world who view both Israel and the United States through the same darkened prism of hate and envy. Thanks to the wonders of modern media, they see how those who practice the secular religion of western freedom and tolerance live apparently without want, without cares. Their own desperate poverty and hopelessness seems more a product of conspiracy carried out by those so much better off than the result of their own wretched politics and economic choices. In an almost childish way, they seek to graft 21st century western miracles onto the back of their 19th century lifestyle. The inevitable disappointment when the graft doesn’t take only enrages them further.

Just about half of the United States wishes to confront this evil head on. The numbers are much less elsewhere. And we are finding in Iraq and everywhere else that our military sophistication isn’t enough to bring victory. We can vanquish armies. But we can’t snap our fingers and rid the world of hopelessness and envy. It seems the more we do to protect ourselves and try to help others face the threat, the forces arrayed against us gain strength and influence.

The war in the Middle East could be a hinge of history that opens a door to reveal an entirely different world than the one we are living in now. It could be that the confluence of a perceived Israeli defeat at the hands of Hizbullah and the defeat of Republicans in November thanks in no small part to what is happening in Iraq could presage a much more cautious approach to dealing with our enemies.

I can think of nothing more disastrous. Our foes will not vouchsafe us breathing room to try and figure out what to do next. He will in fact redouble his efforts in Iraq and elsewhere, going for the kill, believing quite rightly that he has us on the ropes. What we will congratulate ourselves for - our forbearance and “understanding” - will be seen as weakness and a lack of resolve by the enemy. It will do nothing to deter him and will in fact embolden him in ways we can only dimly perceive.

The crisis in the Middle East has shown us that the enemy is playing for keeps. And if we are to safely cross the threshold of this doorway to a new world, we are going to have to remember that one salient fact. Otherwise, our enemy will remind us of it in ways that are too horrible to contemplate.