I can’t tell you the number of slings and arrows that have been flung my way for advocating dialogue with Syria and Iran in the context of a regional conference on Iraq. When I give the reason for my advocacy - a burgeoning refugee problem that threatens to overwhelm those two Iraqi neighbors which might make them more amendable to helping us stem the violence - I have been pilloried as a tool of the enemy or worse, a closet lefty.
For those who don’t think that there’s trouble a’brewing in both Iran and Syria as a result of the uncontrolled flight of Shias and Sunnis from Iraq due to the violence,think again. Here is a map published in the New York Times based on figures compiled by the UN:
(HT: American Footprints)
Talking to both Iran and Syria the same way we dealt with North Korea in the 6 party negotiations would be different than carrying on bi-lateral discussions - something I vigorously oppose. The violence in Iraq is causing enormous problems for Syria and soon will become a very big problem for Iran. Neither wants a failed state on their borders where the refugee problem - already at crisis levels - would spiral out of control and begin to affect the internal politics of both countries.
This has been the basis for my advocacy of dealing with Iran and Syria in the multi-party context of regional security and stability. And Syria especially, may be willing to discuss measures to assist in tamping down the violence in Iraq:
[Syria] can’t maintain its open-door policy without international support. Refugees already strain social services. Yet, the international response to the Iraqi refugee crisis has been dismal. Despite numbers that rival the displacement in Darfur, there has been scant media attention and even less political concern. The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees is doing little.
An increase in resources for UNHCR could make a huge difference. As winter approaches, the need is growing for portable heaters, warm clothing and help in paying electric bills and warm clothing. Mental health services for traumatized Iraqis are equally needed. And legal and financial help to maintain their visa status would prevent deportations back to a precarious life in Iraq.
One thing these refugees bring to the countries where they flee is instability. And authoritarian regimes like Syria and Iran detest instability. The question is do they fear it enough to stop stirring the pot in Iraq?
Obviously we won’t find out unless we join with other countries affected like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to find solutions. And that can only be accomplished via some kind of regional dialogue.
And what of the tens of thousands of Iraqi “collaborators” who have so bravely assisted us for the last 4 years? Are we to abandon them to the tender mercies of whatever forces emerge in the wake of our withdrawal as we did our South Vietnamese allies 30 years ago?
We should start issuing visas in Baghdad, as well as in the regional embassies in Mosul, Kirkuk, Hilla, and Basra. We should issue them liberally, which means that we should vastly increase our quota for Iraqi refugees. (Last year, it was fewer than 200.) We should prepare contingency plans for massive airlifts and ground escorts. We should be ready for desperate and angry crowds at the gates of the Green Zone and U.S. bases. We should not allow wishful thinking to put off these decisions until it’s too late. We should not compound our betrayals of Iraqis who put their hopes in our hands.
I honestly don’t think that kind of effort will be necessary - at least I hope not. If it is then it will mean that we’re being run out of Iraq on a rail - something I doubt will materialize. We will not abandon our embassy regardless of when our troops leave. And I suspect that no matter who is in power in Iraq, we will maintain relations with them.
But it does open the question of not abandoning those who might suffer in a post-occupation Iraq as a result of their cooperation with us. The idea that we are only allowing 200 Iraqis a year to enter the US is absurd. It should be at least 10 times that number. The author of that article has the right idea; no betrayals of those who risked their lives to help us.
Those refugee numbers will only start to get worse as Sunnis continue to leave Iraq for good. An estimated 15% have left in the last 3 years alone. And with so many internally displaced by the violence directed against them, it may be only a matter of time before they leave the country for good.
The refugee problem in Iraq is a symptom. And since it involves all of Iraq’s neighbors, a regional solution would logically seem to be the answer. That, and a brake on Iran and Syria’s efforts to keep the violence at a high level.
Whatever we do, we better start doing it sooner rather than later.
9:33 am
Although we generally are in a weak position to negotiate with Syria and Iran, the refugee issue gives us a little leverage- and should be pursued.
10:25 am
Web Reconnaissance for 12/15/2006
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
10:36 am
Apparently the answer to that question in no, on account of the fact that recently manufactured Iranian made mines(IEDs), ammunition and assault rifles continue to turn up in the hands of the so-called insurgents.
BTW, I don’t think you’re a tool or a closet lefty. If what you claim is true, then Iran has overplayed its hand by meddling in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the MSM should be investigating it more thoroughly. But if you’re wrong, then Iran is positioning itself to be the last man standing, so to speak.
11:32 am
One thing which should also be emphasized re this refuge problem is that the people who are leaving Iraq are largely the people Iraq desperately needs if it is ever to become a civil society. Because the runs who are fleeing are those who can afford to–the educated, middle class professionals. It is also worth mentioning that these people tend to be more secular and moderate. They don’t have any interest in the various religious factions, many of them are “intermarried” (in the middle class, Sunni-Shia marriages have been common for quite some time).
The other thing worth mentioning is that this diagram doesn’t deal with those who have been internally displaced due to little ethnic cleansing operations. If those people begin to flood over the borders, then all hell could break loose, particularly in Jordan in Syria, because many of these people are not so moderate or well educated.
The whole situation is a time-bomb, and it is ticking away.
And I agree that the US policy of only accepting 200 per year is outrageous. As is the fact that these people have not been given refugee status by the UN (due to US pressure) which would make them eligible for assistance which would in turn take some of the pressure off of host countries–particularly Jordan.
12:12 pm
I probably should drop this comment over on Nadezhda’s post, too.
I wish the NYT article had done a little finer breakdown on just who is fleeing Iraq. Their statistics are only raw immigration not net immigration.
Under Saddam thousands (I don’t know how many) of Iraqis left Iraq, too. Assyrians, Chaldeans, Shi’a Arabs from the south of Iraq, many of those fleeing to Iran. Nearly a million Iraqis left the country fleeing Gulf War I. Was there immigration into Iraq as well under Saddam?
Note the small number emigrating to Shi’a Iran. What I suspect we’re seeing is Sunni Arabs leaving Iraq and Kurds and Shi’a Arabs returning. This is apocalyptic if you’re a Sunni Arab but probably somewhat less so if you’re not.
I’m not saying that the situation in Iraq is not serious nor am I saying that this level of dislocation isn’t sad. I’m just saying that it’s difficult to tell much with what we’re being given. It’s a narrative rather than a report.
9:13 pm
Karzai: Courage in the Middle East
And with all the merging violence in the Middle East, we forget that this is changing History, and while they are displaced, they are “detaching” from years of lack of civility.” Patience and perseverance is needed. VIDEO: Karzai speaks of what REAL…
8:39 am
Intriguingly enough, the refugee problem might be what it takes to foster nationalistic, secessionist movements by the Azeris, Baluchs, Kurds and ethnic minorities being suppressed in Iran right now.
Think of all the chaos! Persia will not be spared.
8:59 am
Silvestre Reyes: your next House Intel Chairman!?!
I’d like to take a moment to introduce you to Nancy Pelosi’s choice for House Intelligence Chairman. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) took a break from his busy schedule to answer a few questions from Congressional Quarterly. Shhhhhhhhh. Let’s listen in…
12:32 am
If Iran and Syria did not want chaos and violence in Iraq, they would stop supporting the combatants and facilitating the immigration of terrorists into the country. I would hope the international community would help neither with the problem they have done so much to cause. I hope our country has more will and more honor than to withdraw from Iraq until order is restored to the country. I know many in the area are waiting for the last helicopter, and that gives hope to the insurgency, al Qaeda and the militias. I trust it will not come.
There are areas of Iraq which are safe for the Iraqis if they must leave their homes. I trust the central government will earn their trust at some point, and they will see less need to leave Iraq.
12:33 am
I must add that I do not trust numbers from the UN or reports from the NYT.