5 HEALTH CARE REFORM SCENARIOS IF BROWN WINS
The panicked Democrats are thrashing about trying to come up with a way to save health care reform if Republican Scott Brown wins the special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat.
The first scenario involves challenging the results of the election, no matter how much Brown wins by. The Democrats have already deployed their crack team of election law lawyers who will attempt to muck up the process of counting the ballots, challenging machine counts, trying to force a recount if the result is close enough, and generally throwing a monkey wrench into the proceedings.
The Massachusetts Secretary of State must certify the results within 10 days of the election. That means it’s likely that the earliest Brown could be seated would be January 29 - barring challenges to the vote. It would only be earlier if the Democrats in the senate agreed to swearing Brown in before certification - good luck with that one.
If a Brown victory is within the 3-5% margin, it will be days, perhaps weeks before he is sworn in. The watchword will be “Delay” and if it’s close enough, they will probably succeed in keeping the caretaker senator Paul Kirk in his seat until health care reform is safely passed which, according to ABC’s Rick Klein, won’t be until February 2 at the earliest.
But suppose Brown wins by a large margin or the Democrats run out of challenges before reform is passed? Then things can get a little sticky.
Jonathan Chait at TNR:
As the likelihood grows that Republicans could win the special election in Massachusetts, it’s worth thinking again about alternatives for health care reform in case that happens. I see three, in descending order of preference:1. Finish up the House-Senate negotiations quickly and hold a vote before Scott Brown is seated. Republicans will scream, but how could they scream any louder? It’s a process argument of murky merits that will be long forgotten by November.
2. Get the House to pass the Senate bill, and maybe use a reconciliation bill (which only needs a Senate majority to pass) to implement as many House-Senate compromises as possible.
Option #3 is to flip Olympia Snowe. The Maine senator may very well end up voting for the revised package since, according to Chait, all of her concerns about the bill have been met. Her calculation now is purely political; how badly does she want to remain in the Republican party?
Mainer Andrew Ian Dodge insists that Snowe is never likely to bolt the GOP in Maine, even if the national Republicans would strip her of her seniority or punish her in other ways. But former Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords bolted for a lot less than the Dems would offer Snowe to switch parties. It is a distinct possibility given the alternatives.
Obviously, #3 would be the preferred route. The fact that #1 is almost certainly off the table giving the time period I mentioned above, the only other option is to blow up the senate by using reconciliation to pass reform.
If the Democrats were to employ reconciliation in getting health care reform passed, the Republicans would have no choice but to bring the senate to a standstill. If they didn’t, the Democrats would be able to ride roughshod over them for the rest of the year, not to mention destroying the principle of minority rights. It is a scorched earth option that the Democrats use at their own peril.
The only other option the Democrats have is to vote to get rid of the filibuster entirely. This, I don’t see happening. Saner heads in the party realize that they will not always be in the majority and that the filibuster is a useful tool to block legislation. Besides, they would need a supermajority to change the rules of the senate which means several Republicans would have to go along with the scheme - not very likely.
The most likely scenario? If Scott Brown pulls off the upset and is seated before health care reform is passed, I think reform will die. It may not even be able to pass the House as a couple of dozen members take note of what happened in the most Democratic state in the union and resist voting for this unpopular monstrosity of a health care reform measure.
Welcome news, indeed. But first, Brown has to win.
This blog post originally appears in The American Thinker
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I want to see how the lame-stream media helps the dems to explain why the “Nuclear option” (remeber that one) is ok for democrates when they want to shove something through ,but not republicans. I remeber when the media and the dems raised holy hell about the republicans using the “nuclear option” of reconciliation to pass some legislation a few years back ( what it was excapes me now) At the time the spineless republican leadership caved to media pressure as the dems smiled like a possum eating S*^@#T. You have to admit one thing about the dems “they ain`t skeerd” HEY….REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP!!!! whatch how someone with some stones gets things done in washington ,lol
Comment by politics101 — 1/17/2010 @ 1:34 am
It’s impossible to imagine Snowe voting for a health care bill after all that’s happened, including the Dems losing in Mass over voter fury against it! Maine voters probably dislike it even more.
I agree that the most likely option is it dies — slowly perhaps with a lot of pointless action to cover their retreat (see Kausfiles for smart takes on what those mught be). Obama et al. may still be making noises about deadlines and tactics, but they aren’t so stupid as to all commit political suicide. Outside of districts like Jerry Nadler’s and Jesse Jackson, Jr.’s, this bill is toxic. That’s why Brown is going to win, after all.
Comment by John Burke — 1/17/2010 @ 1:59 am
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Mississippi? Without a doubt.
Alabama? Inevitable.
Texas? A foregone conclusion.
Having said that, I refuse to believe that - given all that the GOP has done to this once-great nation in the past decade - the good people of Massachusetts would be stupid enough to send a Republican to Washington at this point in our history.
I’m sorry but I just refuse to believe it.
http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com
Tom Degan
Goshen, NY
Comment by Tom Degan — 1/17/2010 @ 8:19 am
What’s the rush?
- For the 1st time in history, US gov’t buracracies (local, county, state, regional, national) now match private employment!
- So what’s the headlong rush to get all this totalitarian agenda passed, given the obvious backlash? Answer: Brown vs. Coakley.
The Left has planned all along to get as much as possible, at every opportunity, and work from there. The Dems knew Teddy was gonna die; and somewhat untimely as it turns out, according to MA laws for special elections to fill the “peoples’ seat.” If he hadn’t died, they’d be wheeling him in to sign sh*t, using a mechanical device to augment his debility.
And we wouldn’t be having this conversation about this particular Senate seat and super-majority rule, and nuclear options and the processes that work against US.
The Dems had planned, all along thinking they have it covered; but all plans are subject to change, upon meeting the competitive response. Coakley was their best choice; ie, the Party had no better option, intellect and charisma-wise or aside, given the decision time. Coakley seems to be a typical far left pol; ignorant as a stump, tone deaf - gaffwise approaching a Biden; close to that other Kennedy they wanted to crown. Otherwise Coakley’d be starving in private practice. She was AG?
Ergo, and given the total disregard of the accelerating intensity of the protest, that the super-majority needs to get all this “takeover” accomplished de jure rather than de facto now; eg, before a Sen. Brown (or whoever that was potentially going to be) can be seated to possibly disrupt and devalue the current tactics.
Just think, we’re paying the bureaucrats to enslave US using tax. And now their affiliated numbers approach if not exceed half of US. Their half already has all the necessary mandates and accoutrements needed to “put down civil unrest.” Last week Obama issued an Executive Order creating a panel to coordinate all activities, by all gov’t agencies, in event of civil disaster. Down to local sheriffs - including the Fed’s ability to call up the NatGuard in each of the respective States. Unrest works just as well.
At this point Patriots are way out-gunned, no matter their fervor, location, or armament. That observation comes from a never-before forced to be survivalist, or conspiracy theorist.
Beware the next crisis. I get gloomy, dreamin bout a turnaround, and pondering civility. Seems our cause will require the “sweetest talkers” since Lincoln. Along with some of his “temporary” transgressions on individual liberties.
Comment by geoffgo — 1/18/2010 @ 12:24 pm
geoffgo - Allow me to say that I find you quite amusing.
“At this point Patriots are way out-gunned, no matter their fervor, location, or armament. That observation comes from a never-before forced to be survivalist, or conspiracy theorist.”
So is it your view that the number of “non-Patriots” (Whomever imagine them to be) so vastly out number “Patriots” (Whomever you imagine them to be) that the “Patriots” only hope of getting what they want is to ignore that the US is a democracy?
Comment by KenGirard — 1/18/2010 @ 2:06 pm
Ken,
I didn’t say “vastly outnumbered.” I said outgunned.
Comment by geoffgo — 1/19/2010 @ 10:25 am
geoffgo,
So out gunned by… a bunch of liberals who mostly don’t own guns? Or are you including the military in your count of folks who are not what you are referring to as “Patriots”?
And what exactly is it that is now forcing you to be a conspiracy theorist?
Comment by KenGirard — 1/19/2010 @ 2:08 pm