Right Wing Nut House

As Hizbullah fighters fanatically try and hold their ground in the small villages and towns of southern Lebanon, all the while being slaughtered systematically by the IDF, the makings of Israel’s “defeat” is being spun unmercifully in some corners of the media and on the left.

To date, more than 50 members of the IDF have been killed in the 25 day war. And while information on the numbers of Hizbullah fighters killed in action has been sketchy to say the least, the IDF estimates put the number at 300 on August 1, almost certainly an inflated estimate but one at least more trustworthy than Hizbullah’s laughable figure of 43 given on the same day.

There is every reason to believe that the figure of 300 is closer to being accurate as of today given what’s been happening the last 72 hours in southern Lebanon. Wherever Hizbullah fighters have stood toe to toe with the IDF, they have died. The terrorists perform the best in small unit ambushes where they put the Israelis on the defensive. The IDF then must call in helicopters and fighters to pound Hiz positions in order to extract their men.

But in the last few days, the Israelis have attacked in much larger formations, overwhelming the pockets of Hizbullah fighters and causing them to either flee or be killed. The J-Post reports:

At least ten Hizbullah operatives were killed and three were captured overnight.

Meanwhile, it was released on Sunday that in the past 48 hours, special forces operated south of Tyre. The troops destroyed 3 rocket launchers, a bunker, three weapons warehouses, and three cars used to transport rockets.

Two reserve soldiers were killed in clashes with Hizbullah in southern Lebanon on Saturday. Army forces killed at least 50 Hizbullah guerillas over the weekend, the IDF said.

The raid at Baalbek and the most recent Special Forces op south of Tyre killed dozens more. And given the amount of ordinance expended by the IAF, one has to assume that many Hizbullah fighters have died as the result of bombings.

The point is very simple; Hizbullah fighters are dying in droves, their infrastructure is being smashed to pieces, they are being thrown out of positions in southern Lebanon they’ve occupied since Israel left in 2000, and conversely, they have failed to inflict significant casualties on the IAF although they do very well killing unarmed civilians by launching barrages of rockets indiscriminately into the towns and villages of northern Israel.

Would someone please explain how Hizbullah is “winning” anything except perhaps the race to have the most martyrs claim those 72 virgins in the afterlife?

Where the Hiz are successful, it is in the battle of perceptions. And in this conflict, the IDF is at a huge disadvantage in that the overwhelming majority of the world’s press is openly cheering for Hizbullah to give the Israelis a bloody nose. Tom Gross of the J-Post points to the piss poor job being done by the Israelis in the media war:

Hizbullah and the Palestinians know the value of propaganda. They often fight their media battles by the dirtiest possible means. An expose in these pages on Thursday by former Sunday Telegraph correspondent Tom Gross revealed that Hizbullah officers supervise CNN reports, that a CBS reporter admitted Hizbullah overseers determine what’s filmed, that repeated shots of several downed buildings lend Beirut the erroneous image of devastated WWII Dresden, that journalists are threatened, that Hizbullah holds their passports for ransom, that their analyses are skewed to curry favor, and so on.

Not only doesn’t Israel engage in significant preemptive damage control, it often seems resigned to lose by default. The axiomatic official Israeli attitude often seems to be that “the world hates us.”

It may indeed deny us a fair shake, but there’s a difference between giving up a priori and trying to do something about it. To forfeit without a fight is reckless neglect. It can only impact on Israel’s image, its standing abroad, and the pressure on international politicians to take unsympathetic positions, and thus directly on Israel’s future well-being.

The pathetic nature of Hizbullah’s “success” - the fact that they aren’t running away in terror or surrendering as other, less fanatical Arab armies have done in the past - says much more about those who are lionizing the terrorists than it does about whether they are “winning” the war in any real sense of the word. Because when the dust settles and hostilities end, Israel will have a buffer zone of one kind of another, Hizbullah will be prevented from re-occupying positions they held for nearly 6 years prior to the war, and given Israeli-American insistence, Nasrallah’s fanatics will be disarmed probably by having his militia folded into the Lebanese army.

And this is a Hizbullah “victory?”

Ah, but the Hiz are heroes in the Arab street you say! Nasrallah will be more powerful in Lebanese politics, you crow! As for the former, my aunt Mabel would be popular in the Arab street if she was the beneficiary of the dizzying spin being put on this conflict in the Arab and western press.

As for the latter, someone please give me the crystal ball making that prediction so that I can pick some stocks. No one knows what shape post war Lebanese politics will take., what the impact of Nasrallah’s bellicosity that started the war and now his intransigence that is prolonging it will have on his standing among the other factions. My guess is that the Future Party of Prime Minister Siniora, Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt will do a little anti-Nasrallah spinning of their own in the aftermath of this war. And how that will turn out is anyone’s guess.

The western press always seems able to find present or former State Department officials or analysts of one kind or another who will wail on cue about how badly the war has gone for Israel and how the conflict has “empowered” Hizbullah. These doomsayers have made their prognostications based not what has been happening on the battlefield but what they perceive to be Israel’s weakness in not vanquishing Hizbullah in 6 days - that being the standard set by the international punditariat for a clear Israeli victory. Anything more and either the IDF is losing its edge or they have met their match on the battlefield in Hizbullah. This is so clearly tommyrot. Just look at a map of Israeli positions today and see that they have trapped Hizbullah’s remaining fighters in a kill zone from the border to the Litani River. With roads and bridges impassable, those Hiz fighters are doomed unless they surrender.

Given the fact that Nasrallah has rejected out of hand the provisions in the cease fire resolution that will probably be passed Tuesday or Wednesday, Israel will have a free hand to continue to kill his fighters, bust up his remaining infrastructure, and weaken his organization where it counts - its ability to harm the Jewish state.

Will that matter to those who are busy spinning Israel’s inevitable defeat? Probably not. But then, I doubt the Israelis care very much just as long as they can prevent Hizbullah from harming their citizens whenever they feel like it.

Now that smells like victory…

UPDATE

Judith Klinghoffer has more evidence of a Hizbullah “victory.” Nasrallah begging for help in arranging a cease fire from the very same Arab states he dismissed so cavailerly just 3 weeks ago:

Get out of my way, he told Arab leaders at the start of the conflict. Now he changed his tune:

For your own sake, for the sake of your thrones, I say to you: Combine your humanity with your thrones, and act - even for a single day - to stop this aggression against Lebanon. From the first day, I said that I do not ask or call upon you to do anything. I still do not, but I want to protect you, our country, and our homeland. This is how those who want can help Lebanon.”

Although the US and France have agreed on the outline of a “cessation of hostilities” between Israel and Hizbullah, the terrorist group has indicated it will not abide by its provisions:

The United States and France agreed Saturday on a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that calls for a halt to the fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, but would allow Israel to defend itself if attacked.

The draft, sent to the entire Security Council for consideration, “calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations.”

Israel, backed by the U.S., has insisted it must have the right to respond if Hezbollah launches missiles against it. France and many other nations had demanded an immediate halt to the fighting without conditions as a way to push the region back toward stability.

[snip]

Illustrating the difficulty ahead in getting the sides to agree to a cease-fire, Mohammed Fneish, a Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Cabinet, said after the announcement that his group would stop fighting, but only if Israel removed all its troops from Lebanon. The draft resolution makes no such demand.

“If they stay, we will not abide by it,” he told reporters.

Israel has said it wants to continue fighting for up to two more weeks to seriously diminish Hezbollah’s military capability.

Two points to keep in mind. First, apparently Nasrallah is not much of a gambler. He doesn’t know when to quit while he’s ahead (at least in the eyes of the Arab street). The fact that his fighters are now trapped behind the barrier of the Litani River facing 10,000 Israeli soldiers means that if he wants to keep fighting, his men will keep dying.

Second, this will put the onus for the fighting even more on Hizbullah. No more nonsense from Siniora about his noble “resistance” fighting the invader. Nasrallah could have taken the deal and Israel would have quit. Instead, if the Hiz start throwing more rockets into Israel, the IAF will have a green light to continue their own destruction of Hizbullah infrastructure.

Don’t expect that second resolution anytime soon. In fact, if Nasrallah keeps fighting and Israel keeps bombing, there’s no reason to believe the international force will materialize in the near future. No one wants their soldiers walking into a free fire zone.

One other interesting provision of the resolution is an arms embargo against Lebanon which prevents Syria and Iran from resupplying their Hizbullah stooges. Not that it will matter much as far as Hizbullah’s rockets are concerned since it is estimated they still have about half of the 10,000 they started the war with. But in small arms like anti-tank weapons and the like? If the war goes much longer with no way to resupply the Hiz fighters trapped in the south, it may mean that this last phase of the war will go much more swiftly for the IDF.

The rest of the resolution is a rehash of 1559:

Other principles spelled out in the resolution include the disarmament of Hezbollah; the creation of a buffer zone from the U.N.-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon up to the Litani River, which is about 20 miles north of the frontier; and the delineation of Lebanon’s borders, especially in the disputed Chebaa Farms area.

The resolution would call for the current U.N. force in Lebanon, known by its acronym UNIFIL, to monitor the cessation in fighting. Once Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the series of principles, the Security Council would then authorize a new peacekeeping force for the region.

Does the UN believe that the more times it passes the same resolution, the greater the chance that the thugs of the world will finally abide by it?

How many similar resolutions did this useless collection of testosteroneless diplomats pass telling Saddam to disarm, to obey other resolutions, to stop firing on our planes, to act like a responsible member of the world community?

What good does it do to continue to tell these thugs the same thing over and over and then watch as they thumb their nose at you and continue on their merry way? It is not just an exercise in futility, it is an exercise in fantasy. The diplomats at the UN and those who actually believe they have any relevance whatsoever in the real world are not serious people. They are fantasists. Only when the great powers put their might and prestige behind anything the UN decides does the rest of the world actually take what that body does with any seriousness at all.

The war will go on. And before it’s over, Nasrallah will be wishing he took what the UN is offering today.

ROUNDUP

Ed Morrissey agrees that the onus for the fighting now devolves to Hizbullah if the war continues.

Pamela is not optimistic in the slightest and is mad as a hornet.

Richard Fernandez points out the nuance that I did yesterday; the difference between a “full cessation of hostilities” and “immediate cessation ” of the fighting. We win. France loses.

Mac points out that Bolton triumphed at the UN and makes his critics look silly.

Dave Shuler gives us a tour d’horizon of the Middle East.

Dan Riehl:

Pardon me if I don’t watch it, I believe I’ve seen this movie before. The UN couldn’t stop arms sales into Iraq and there was even more support for those resolutions. All this is is a simple re-hash of previously passed resolutions. If the UN had enforced those in the first place, this war would never have taken place.

James Joyner:

It’s far from clear how meaningful this will be, presuming it passes the full Council. Hezbollah will certainly continue to continue firing rockets into Israel and allow Israel to continue to kill Lebanese civilians so long as it is to their operational advantage.

There are times when my pessimism about what is happening in the world gets the better of me and I sink into one of two states of consciousness; blissful ignorance as I just ignore what is really going on until my curiosity gets the better of me or a simmering anger that usually explodes in some towering rant against those who would lead us (the West) to disaster because of the deliberate self delusion or ignorance of a large and influential segment of our political class.

As for the latter, while emotionally satisfying on one level, there are many times that I wish I had not hit that “publish” button. This is an occupational hazard for any blogger who becomes a slave to content and feels it necessary at times to let loose an ill favored rhetorical barrage at whatever current object of scorn, or derision, or humor that wanders into my gunsights. I realize that is part of the appeal of this site to many of you but there really are times when such writing is ill advised. Better the reasoned riposte than a heaping of calumny directed toward the wayward, the clueless, or the downright dumb.

However, there is something to be said for the former. Existing in one’s own little cocoon of information and opinion is certainly comforting. Reading only people and ideas that you agree with is not only good for one’s blood pressure, but also allows for a smug, self satisfaction to settle over one’s writing. The idea of the Revealed Truth From Rick is reinforced by many of you who leave nice comments and verbally pat me on the back for my perspicacity.

All goes swimmingly until I happen to read what I’ve written after a few weeks time and realize the trap I’ve fallen into. That’s when you must force yourself once again to examine the issues and events of the day from every possible angle so that even in disagreement, you find nuggets of truth, shades of meaning that can alter your perceptions and give a sense of wholeness to your beliefs.

In the end, that’s what this blog is all about; my beliefs. And the sooner you find out that it is silly and dangerous to believe that you have a corner on what is right or what is true, the more intellectually satisfying your search for knowledge will become.

Aristotle wrote:

“The search for truth is in one way hard and in another way easy, for it is evident that no one can master it fully or miss it wholly. But each adds a little to our knowledge of nature, and from all the facts assembled there arises a certain grandeur.”

“All the facts assembled” means that you must humble yourself in order to achieve that “grandeur” by searching out contrary interpretations of the facts. It isn’t just a matter of buttressing your own opinions by finding flaws in another’s arguments. It sometimes comes down to actually trying to wear the shoes of those with whom you disagree, seeing the issue from their perspective. Only then can you truly embrace your own conceits with the confidence that you’ve done all that is required to satisfy those pesky muses who bedevil your unconscious, whispering in your ear that “thou art but mortal” and must work like the dickens to overcome your own arrogance.

But in the face of this kind of evil, this monstrous darkness that is descending over the west largely as a result of our own stupidity and reckless disregard for our own safety, I’m tempted to gather all the Juan Coles, the Billmons, the Kossacks, and the whole lot of morally timid, incredibly myopic liberals who cannot see the horrific danger we are in from the scourge if Islamic fundamentalism and send them packing to Iran so that they can glimpse our future. It is mindboggling. And for someone brought up in a western, liberal, democratic, (small “d”) tradition, really quite perplexing.

Is there nothing in the west worth defending? Are there no values, no artistic or cultural traditions worth standing up for? Is the warm and comfortable embrace of western freedoms to be given up so cavalierly, without a fight and in some cases, even willingly?

On Thursday, the President of Iran said for the umpteenth time that the State of Israel should be eliminated. Previous incarnations of this rhetoric has been the disputed phrase about wiping Israel “off the map” and variations on the theme that the Jewish state will disappear in fire and smoke. Ahmadinejad has also suggested that the Europeans carve out some of their own territory and uproot more than 6 million Jews in order to move them “back” to Europe (the overwhelming majority of Israelis having been born in their own land, given to them by the United Nations and fought for by their fathers and grandfathers).

And yet, despite the clearly stated goals of the Islamic regime in Iran now growing bolder and more open about its intent to use proxies like Hizbullah to carry the fight to all “infidels,” all we hear from most of the left is a combination of nauseating anti-Semitism and a curious moral indistinctness between the Israelis and Hizbullah.

Hizbullah launches hundreds of rockets into Israel with the expressed intent of killing as many non-combatants as possible and the reaction on the left is, after (perhaps) a desultory condemnation of these purely terror tactics, gleeful commentary on how Israel is losing the war. On the other hand, when Israel mistakenly targets a house in Qana, apologizes profusely, and actually alters their targeting regime to try and prevent further mistakes, the moral outrage is without limit. Juan Cole:

There had been some question about whether Hizbullah’s ability to hit Israel with rockets had been degraded, or whether it was just observing the 48 hour air cease fire. On Wednesday it cleared the mystery up. The indiscriminate firing of rockets on civilian targets wounded 21 persons and one hit the Palestinian West Bank. Among the rockets fired was a long-distance Khaybar II. Targeting civilians or unnecessarily endangering them is a war crime.

Please note Professor Cole’s pro-forma recognition that Hizbullah has committed an atrocity is disconnected, unemotional, and matter of fact. He doesn’t even directly accuse Hizbullah of a war crime despite the fact that Hizbullah has now launched thousands of rockets into northern Israel trying desperately to kill as many civilians as they can.

What kind of mind can make that disconnect? The kind that can write this about Qana:

Note how by calling it a “tragedy,” Blair takes the onus off Israel for launching a total war on the Lebanese infrastructure and population. A hurricane is a tragedy, Mr. Prime Minister. This is a war. It is a war launched by specific persons, including especially Ehud Olmert and Gen. Halutz. It isn’t something that can be put into the passive voice.

Even most of the Arab world agrees that Hizbullah “launched” this war, not Prime Minister Olmert. And Cole’s blindness, comforting as it might be for him, extends to his swallowing hook, line, and sinker, this kind of Arab propaganda:

The Israelis appear to be engaged in a concerted campaign of ethnic cleansing in the Shiite towns and villages of southern Lebanon, and are indiscriminately bombing all buildings in the area south of the Litani River. They have chased hundreds of thousands of residents out, and are destroying the property they left behind in a systematic way, rather as they destroy the houses belonging to the family members related to suicide bombers. In other words, the Israelis are engaged in collective punishment on a vast scale. They maintain that rocket launching sites are embedded in these villages. But since Hizbullah keeps firing large numbers of rockets, it does not actually appear to be the case that the Israelis are hitting the rocket launchers. They are demonstrably hitting civilian houses and apartment buildings in a methodical way.

“Ethnic cleansing?” “Collective punishment?” Cole and I share a passion for reading the Daily Star of Lebanon and the individuals making claims such as he is reprinting here are Hizbullah spokesmen. There is no talk from Prime Minister Siniora of “ethnic cleansing” nor of any “methodical” razing of buildings. Cole regurgitates Hizbullah propaganda without batting an eyelash.

And herein lies the cause of my pessimism. Cole is an intelligent man, a font of information on the Middle East and its history (if you can stomach his biases). But last May, he wrote this regarding any confrontation between the west and Iran:

So sit down and shut up, American Enterprise Institute, and Hudson Institute, and Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and American Heritage Foundation, and this institute and that institute, and cable “news”, and government “spokesmen”, and all the pundit-ferrets you pay millions to make business for the American military-industrial complex and Big Oil.

We don’t give a rat’s ass what Ahmadinejad thinks about European history or what pissant speech the little shit gives.

Despite his hatred for the Iranian regime, Cole believes that we should not take Ahmadinejad at his word. If the Iranian President says that Israel will be eliminated, it is rhetoric that we can safely ignore. And when Ahmadinejad uses proxies like Hizbullah to make war on Israel and the west, I suppose we should bury our heads in the ground and pretend we shouldn’t do anything about it because the entire rationale for looking at Iran as an enemy has to do with the military industrial complex in America and has nothing to do with our own survival.

Cole, of course, is not alone. Not by a long shot. And it is legitimate to ask if Cole and his ilk would do anything to defend themselves against this kind of threat. Time and time again over the last 27 years Islamic fundamentalists have attacked us, eliciting a “proportional” response - a bombing run or lobbing a few cruise missiles at targets of opportunity. All this has gotten us is more attacks.

And Israel, trying to play by the rules laid out by the international community for the last 60 years that prevent it from removing threats to its existence so that the sensibilities of those who refuse to recognize the Jewish state as a legitimate national entity won’t be ruffled, finds itself on the frontline of this most recent war against the west. And once again, an international community more in love with “process” than with actually solving Israel’s dilemma is calling for the Jewish state to halt before it feels the job is done. No wonder the United States wants to change the failed diplomatic framework of the past that did nothing to make Israel safe and only made western politicians look good to the homefolks.

The world is becoming too dangerous to play these kinds of games anymore. Hizbullah must be disarmed. Syria must be be held to account for their meddling in Lebanon which included the brazen assassination of the beloved Hariri. And Iran must be isolated from the community of nations until they rid themselves of those who seek to lead a wordlwide crusade whose goal is the subjugation or destruction of everything we in the west find worth living for.

It is getting very late in the day not to have the left on board for this fight. And perhaps it will take a liberal leader somewhere else to explain it to them. They seem to have turned a deaf ear to anything coming from the United States and especially George Bush.

But wherever the wake-up call comes from - and it will come - the only question is will it come too late so that the west can face this latest challenge to its existence reasonably united.

The alternative is simply unthinkable.

There are so many “plans” to stop the violence in the Israeli-Islamist War that I thought I’d lay them out in one post so that you can see how hard it is going to be to achieve a halt anytime soon.

The major players at the UN - France vs. Britain and the US - and the Middle East - US/Israel vs. Lebanon/Hizbullah - all have their own ideas on how to stop the war. And the differences are not insignificant, not by any means. Let’s look at the US-Israeli positions first.

US/ISRAEL

1. No “cease fire” (an important word choice) until an international force is “in place.”

2. International force would occupy a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon (size to be determined)

3. International force must have rules of engagement that allow it to shoot back in order to keep Hizbullah from re-occupying the south.

4. Hizbullah must be disarmed - either by the Lebanese themselves or by the International force.

5. Immediate release of Israeli prisoners.

6. Lebanese Army will take over from the International force once they are trained and deployed.

7. Lebanese government will have sovereignty over all of Lebanon.

Now here’s the Lebanese government/Hizbullah formulation:

LEBANON/HIZBULLAH

1. Immediate cease fire along with an immediate withdrawal of IDF forces.

2. No international force - only an augment to the UNIFIL force already there.

3. No buffer zone and Hizbullah gets to re-occupy positions in the south.

4. Lebanese government will disarm Hizbullah following discussions carried out in the context of the National Dialogue.

5. Release of all Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails in return for the two captured IDF soldiers.

6. Resolution of the Shebaa Farms issue with the UN turning over the tiny slice of land to Lebanon.

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah (who is temporarily calling the negotiating shots) has made it clear that any international force not connected to UNIFIL will be considered invaders. And the Israelis have agreed to release 3 Lebanese prisoners in exchange for their two captured soldiers.

Now, what’s going on at the UN?

UNITED NATIONS

Roughly speaking, France has taken the Lebanese positions while Condi Rice has modified the American position marginally in order to come a little closer to what the French are asking:

Efforts are under way at the United Nations to set up a mechanism that would facilitate “direct or indirect” Israeli-Lebanese discussions, senior Israeli diplomatic officials said Thursday.

According to the officials, under this proposal “everything would be discussed: a cease-fire, the Shaba Farms issue, the prisoner exchange, and deployment of the multinational force.”

According to UN and American officials, an arrangement of this kind, which would include a pair of Security Council resolutions, is now within reach.

Here is the French proposal:

FRANCE

1. Immediate cease fire.

2. No discussion of other issues until the guns stop.

3. All “political issues” like the disarming of Hizbullah and deployment of the Lebanese army to be worked out before France or any international troops occupy the buffer zone.

4. Weak rules of engagement for the international force.

How close can Condi come to that position? Here’s what she and the Brits have come up with:

The solution to these divergent positions has come in the form of two resolutions. The first, to be voted on in the coming days, will establish a “cessation of hostilities” and articulate a political framework for the future.

Israeli officials said that this document would likely be similar to a statement issued by the G-8 soon after the crisis began last moth, and include a call to release the captive Israeli soldiers, for a cessation of hostilities, and for beefing up the Lebanese army.

The first resolution would be window dressing. It would call for “a cessation of hostilities” rather than a “cease fire.” In the cuckoo land of diplomacy, this makes everyone happy. It is immediate which pleases the French but it doesn’t use the words “cease fire” which pleases us and the Israelis.

We also want to append a call for sanctions against any nation that resupply’s Hizbullah. France is frowning on that because they want to engage the Syrians to help rein in Hizbullah. But as we’ve seen with sanctions elsewhere, there are ways around them so in the end, France will probably give in.

This resolution will be trumpeted by the media but will mean little. It is the second resolution that will have teeth (if any) and that will tell the tale as to whether or not any cease fire will mean a pause of a couple of weeks or a genuine solution:

The second resolution, which would follow after an as yet determined amount of time, would set the composition and mandate of a multinational force and the contours of a new buffer zone in southern Lebanon. It would also assert the authority of the Lebanese government and propose help to the Lebanese Army to gain control of its borders.

Israel’s position is that the IDF first needs to clear the buffer zone, one currently being carved out by the IDF, in order for the multinational force to move in. Israel wants this force to be “an international army,” not an observer force like UNIFIL, but rather one strong enough that it can impose its will.

The real sticking point here is what happens to the buffer zone in the meantime? France wants Israel to withdraw and the UNIFIL force occupy the buffer zone until the International force can be constituted. Israel and the US naturally are balking at that idea.

The solution may involve a token international “rapid response” force that could be flown in immediately and buttress UNIFIL’s efforts. Israel quite naturally is very wary of this and may put the kibosh on the entire idea - unless Washington insists:

There are two possibilities for solving this remaining problem. The IDF could maintain its position until the arrival of an international force, a position clearly favored by the Israeli government and opposed by Lebanon, among other countries. The other option is for the current UNIFIL mission to be beefed up. Its troops could then be integrated into whatever larger, more robust force arrives. Israel, considering UNIFIL to be weak, opposes this solution.

This remains a major point of contention between the American and French. As French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told France-Inter radio on Thursday, “We are working well with the Americans, working night and day. We are advancing toward a common resolution, but we’re not yet there. There is still work to do.”

That actually sounds more hopeful than is realistic. After spilling all that blood (and having Washington stick its neck out in support of Israel’s offensive) it is doubtful that we will compromise when it comes to Israeli forces in the buffer zone leaving until a sizable force of International soldiers who can enforce their will by having “robust” rules of engagement is in place. This will probably be a sticking point that takes another 10 days to 2 weeks to resolve.

In the meantime, here’s my speculation.

The first resolution calling for a “cessation of hostilities” will pass easily. Israel will probably stop bombing outside the buffer zone in Lebanon (or perhaps stop bombing all together). This will put pressure on Nasrallah to make good on his promise to stop launching rockets into northern Israel. It will not stop the IDF from carrying out “mop-up” operations in whatever buffer zone they can carve out between now and the passage of that first resolution.

The Security Council will have a devil of a time coming to an agreement on the second resolution. In the end, Hizbullah will probably be kicked out of southern Lebanon but still get to keep their guns. The Lebanese government will be just as weak as it was before the conflict started but will perhaps have assistance from the international community in training its army (which I predict will include Hizbullah as an independent command thus making them part of the army rather than a militia that needs to be disarmed) and rebuilding its devastated infrastructure.

And then both sides will lick their wounds, re-arm, and get ready for the next go around.

Alright, I’m being flip and disrespectful about this, but C’mon Mr. Talabani! We’ve had enough pie in the sky pronouncements from our own people. We don’t need it from someone ostensibly charged with the responsibility of working to improve the dire security situation of his people:

President Jalal Talabani said Wednesday that Iraqi forces will assume security duties for the whole country by the end of the year, taking over responsibility from U.S. and other foreign troops now policing all but one of the 18 provinces. The optimistic forecast came during a relative lull in the violence wracking Iraq. Police said nine people were slain Wednesday, a day after a wave of bombings and shootings killed more than 70.

Iraqi leaders had said previously that their goal was to be fully in control of security by the end of 2006, but Talabani’s statement was the most specific.

The president, a Kurd from northern Iraq, said the government is confident it will vanquish extremist groups, calling the recent surge in violence as “the last arrows in their pockets.”

“We are highly optimistic that we will terminate terrorism in this year,” he said.

Nearly a quarter million Iraqis have been displaced by the sectarian violence that rages on a daily basis. Death squads are running rampant in Baghdad and its environs killing more than 100 a day. You still have a Sunni insurgency with upwards of 20,000 hardened fighters setting off car bombs and IED’s. The loyalty of many of your police (not so much the army) is still suspect. And Mookie al-Sadr and his merry band of torturing thugs flips the bird at you and your government every single day.

On top of that, you have forces at work that are tearing the country apart with Kurdish separatism in the north a growing menace and Shia nationalism asserting itself in the south.

The Turks are mad as hornets at Kurdish terrorism and may invade in order to stop it while Iran and Syria laugh in the face of the United States and your government while supplying everyone who is raising a hand against you with arms.

Shall I go on?

Corruption, an inability to compromise, infrastructure problems, an intelligentsia and middle class fleeing for their lives (estimated 500,000 have left the country in the last 2 years), and an economy that is swirling down the proverbial toilet.

And you want to police all of this with what American commanders are telling us is perhaps as few as 6 or 7 brigades of competently trained soldiers?

Gimme whatever you’re smoking, Mr. President ’cause its better’n what I got ’shyear.

Seriously, this statement by the President doesn’t mean diddly. He has very little power, constitutionally speaking although he is a well respected man. He may just be reiterating the mantra chanted by other Iraqi politicians who need to get the Americans out of the country as soon as possible.

And don’t worry. We’re not going anywhere. In fact, in the next couple of weeks, we’re going to start wiping the smile off Mookie al-Sadr’s face - and there will be no one to save him this time. Ditto for the Badr Brigades in the south as well as the Sunni militias not associated with the insurgency who have sprung up in Baghdad in answer to the Shia militia’s death squads.

The kidnappers, the gangs, and other criminals will be a matter for the Iraqi forces to deal with. If Prime Minister Maliki is serious about cracking down - and in many ways his life depends on him being serious - what we are about to witness in the next fortnight is what we should have done two years ago but were prevented by the Ayatollah al-Sistani - kill al-Sadr and destroy his Iranian-loving militia.

My guess is that by the end of the year, the security situation will have improved noticeably but will be no where near what it should be. It will take a long time to rid Iraq of the devils that torment her. But given time and the skills of the United States military, it will be possible.

As long as her leaders don’t act like a bunch of Pollyannas in pigtails, that is…

I’LL HAVE THE LATEST ON THE ISRAELI-ISLAMIST WAR ON THE RICK MORAN SHOW, 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM CENTRAL ON WIDEAWAKES RADIO. ACCESS THE STREAM HERE.

This could be the best news of the war.

The IDF is carrying out some kind of ground operation with heavy air support in the Bekaa Valley, more than 60 miles north and east of the Litani River (almost 75 miles from the Israeli-Lebanon border). Troops are engaged in heavy fighting with Hizbullah’s best troops near - and get this - the ancient city of Baalbek.

Lebanese army and security officials said a major Israel Defense Forces operation was underway against suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley late Tuesday. IDF troops thrust deep into the area, landing troops by helicopter in the Hezbollah heartland.

Lebanese security sources said IDF soldiers had landed by helicopter near Baalbek as aircraft launched several strikes in the region.

One Lebanese officer saying the Israel Air Force presence in the air above the ancient city was “unprecedented.”

Lebanese army and security officials said a major IDF operation was under way against suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek.

Baalbek just happens to be where the Syrians maintained their headquarters during the occupation of Lebanon. It is also the place where Iranian Revolutionary Guards were quartered during their announced stay in Lebanon during the 80’s.

The Lebanese have accused the Syrians of never entirely leaving Lebanon, maintaining an outpost in the Bekaa Valley and being given cover by Hizbullah. It is also thought that the Iranians never left Lebanon either, handling logistical support for the terrorists also in Bekaa.

Could the Israelis be going after the Syrian and Iranian personnel stationed in the Bekaa?

The bulk of Hizbullah’s best fighters are stationed in the Bekaa Valley, being too valuable to risk in any stand-up fight with the IDF. The small sized operations carried out by the IDF prior to today netted only several hundred of the estimated 3,000 of these crack troops. Most analysts believed that in order for the IDF to really hurt Hizbullah, some kind of Bekaa operation was an absolute necessity.

Is this a raid? Or are these troops the vanguard of a major thrust aimed at the heart of Hizbullah? And what about any stray Syrians or Iranians? What would be the consequences of the IDF busting up any kind of logistical and/or intel operations being carried out by the terrorist’s patrons?

The next 48 hours will be the most crucial in this war. They will probably answer the questions above as well as decide the question of how serious the Israelis are about winning through to a decisive victory.

UPDATE

At the moment, this strike appears to be a Special Forces operation aimed at a hospital in Baalbek:

Hezbollah’s chief spokesman, Hussein Rahal, told The Associated Press that Israeli troops landed near Dar al-Hikma Hospital and that fierce fighting continued to rage for more than one hour.

“A group of Israeli commandos was brought to the hospital by a helicopter. They entered the hospital and are trapped inside as our fighters opened fire on them and fierce fighting is still raging,” Rahal said.

Rahal said Hezbollah guerrillas were using automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenades. He dismissed as “untrue” reports that the Israeli commandos managed to snatch some patients from the hospital and spirit them away in helicopters. He said Israel jets were attacking the surrounding guerrilla force with rockets.

The IDF snatching patients from a hospital? Could it be that those “patients” were none other than the two IDF soldiers kidnapped by Hizbullah on July 12?

Jumping to conclusions is an occupational hazard for a blogger. Patience in this case, will reveal all.

UPDATE II

YNet News is reporting additional strikes against Hemel as well as the bombing of several key border crossings between Syria and Lebanon:

Just hours after the conclusion of the meeting, witnesses reported that Israeli warplanes targeted the Hizbullah stronghold of Hermel deep inside Lebanon early Tuesday, despite Israel’s 48 hours suspension of air strikes. Warplanes fired at least five air-to-surface missiles on the town, witnesses said. Another strike targeted an area near the Syrian border.

The J-Post offers more details:

Earlier, fighter-bombers struck deep inside the country, hitting the Hizbullah stronghold of Hermel, some 120 km. north of the border in the Bekaa Valley, witnesses said. Planes also hit Hizbullah fighters battling with soldiers near the border, as the gunmen fired mortars into Israel.

About six hours later, jets returned to attack Hermel again, hitting a pickup truck loaded with cooking gas canisters, security officials said. The canisters exploded, sending flames shooting up from the vehicle for nearly an hour. The driver had pulled over and exited the vehicle before the attack, and was not hurt, they said.

Another strike at an area near the Syrian border, about 10 km. north of Hermel, targeted the Qaa-Homs road, one of four official crossing points between Lebanon and Syria. Lebanon’s official news agency reported IAF jets also hit early Tuesday near the Masnaa crossing into Syria, which was attacked several times in the last three days.

Tuesday’s air strikes meant that two of the four border crossings are now closed because of damage. Repeated air strikes have made the main Beirut-Damascus highway impassable.

Sure is a lot of air activity for a raid. The IDF has still only committed a fraction of its force of more than 10,000 crack troops along the border with Lebanon, no more than regiment-sized engagements.

Could they be preparing for a lightening quick thrust into Bekaa, bypassing Hez strong points in the south and racing north in an effort to engage the bulk of Nasrallah’s men in the Bekaa Valley?

More rank speculation from an amatuer to be sure. But the IDF clearly needs to do something spectacular in order to turn the tide of perceptions about this war from an Israeli defeat into a smashing victory.

UPDATE III 8/2

Bill Roggio reports that the IDF Special Forces captured several low-level Hizbullah officials - including one with an interesting name:

The commandos were extracted from the scene after a fierce gun battle which included air strikes and strafing runs on Hezbollah positions outside the hospital, The commandos did not leave empty handed, and “took a number of Hizbullah officials captive.” Haaretz reports 3 to 5 “junior Hezbollah militants” were captured, and several more were killed during the raid. “[Lebanese sources] identified the men as Hussein Nasrallah, Hussein al-Burji and Ahmed al-Ghotah and described them as low ranking members of the group,” according to Haaretz, and “The captured Hussein Nasrallah has the same name as a Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”

Coincidence?

Also, check out the excellent map at CTB showing exactly where in the Bekaa Israel hit. It appears the IAF is trying to choke off any Syrian attempt at resupplying their friends in Hizbullah. They could also be trying to forestall any attempt by Syria to assist Hizbullah if the IDF decides to make a major thrust into the Valley.

The Israeli Air Force has changed its story on how and why the ancient village of Qana was bombed, raising questions about a host of military/civilian issues that demand answers.:

It now appears that the military had no information on rockets launched from the site of the building, or the presence of Hezbollah men at the time.

The Israel Defense Forces had said after the deadly air-strike that many rockets had been launched from Qana. However, it changed its version on Monday.

The site was included in an IAF plan to strike at several buildings in proximity to a previous launching site. Similar strikes were carried out in the past. However, there were no rocket launches from Qana on the day of the strike.

To sum up; no Hizbullah rockets launched from the building or in the vicinity, none apparently even launched from Qana that day, it was not in retaliation for a rocket launch but rather part of a “plan” to strike the building, and that “mysterious” 8 hour gap could very well not even exist:

The IDF account and those of survivors present contradictory versions of the Qana deaths. The IDF said that there is an unexplained gap of about seven hours between the IAF strike and the first report that the building had collapsed. Residents’ accounts say only 10 minutes went by between the strike and the collapse.

The survivors say rescue teams arrived only in the morning, as night conditions made the rescue mission difficult. The Red Cross in Tyre received a call for help only in the morning, explaining their late arrival.

First and foremost, those who are blogging this story should step back for a while and wait for the IDF report on the tragedy which should be forthcoming in the next couple of days. This appears to be one of those stories where the bloggers got ahead of the curve of information so far that speculation took on a life of its own and ended up making some wish they had held their fire.

The immediacy and impact of blogs makes delving into stories like the Qana bombing a treacherous undertaking. It is one thing to relay media reports like those from Qana that suggested there was an 8 hour lag time in the building’s demolition as well as IAF statements that have now turned out to be false. But it is quite another to engage in the kind of rank speculation that posited the notion that the collapse of the building was due to the enemy bringing down the building on top of those civilians instead of an Israeli bomb.

This in no way should give Hizbullah a free pass for their shameful dog and pony show with the dead bodies of children found in the rubble. Nor does it excuse the AP, Reuters, and other news organizations who always seem to be there to act as Hizbullah’s private PR team.

And while there are still legitimate questions that need to be answered about several issues surrounding the bombing, what the IAF is admitting here does not reflect well on their targeting policies. Based on the best intelligence available to them, it nevertheless appears that the IAF made a tragic and perhaps avoidable mistake.

Given the professionalism and yes, the humanity of the IDF, I fully expect an investigation into the incident to include the decision making process that led to authorizing the mission to bomb the building.

Meanwhile, Hizbullah gets a free pass from most of the world for firing missiles at Israeli cities, probably praying to Allah before launch that the rockets hit a building and kill as many Israeli civilians as possible. The contrast between the two sides should be highlighted at every possible opportunity; when Israel hits a civilian target, it is a mistake, cause for mourning and a re-examination of military protocols. When Hizbullah hits a civilian target, it is a cause for celebration and probably rates a pat on the back to those who launched the rocket.

UPDATE

Confederate Yankee makes two excellent points:

1. That the building was used to store munitions.

2. Evidence for the almost immediate collapse comes via an “eyewitness” who may or may not be telling the truth.

He also links to The Left Coaster who thinks piles on Israel’s supporters for daring to speculate that Hizbullah could have engineered the entire incident. This from a moonbat who wrote this measured, thoughtful piece on the day of the tragedy at Qana:

God damn you Mr. President for what you, yes you have done to this country. You, your satanic Vice President and Secretary of Defense, and your inept Secretary of State have besmirched the integrity and dignity of this country for far too long. I fear that we will all now pay a price for it. With his green light and wink and a nod relationship with Israel, Bush has blood on his hands tonight just as much as the Israelis. …

Burn in hell Mr. Bush. Your foreign policy team is waiting for you there. No matter how quickly you try and weasel your way away from this and towards a face-saving call for a cease fire, this hangs around your neck, and there is nothing you can do to change that.

This is what passes for rational thought on the left.

It appears that Prime Minister Olmert is going to shoot for an outright victory against Hizbullah (if that is possible) by authorizing the IDF to begin a massive incursion into southern Lebanon:

Israel’s Security Cabinet approved early Tuesday widening the ground offensive in Lebanon and rejected a cease-fire until an international force is in place, a participant in the meeting said.

Airstrikes in Lebanon would resume “in full force” after the 48-hour suspension expires in another day, said the participant, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters. He said there was no deadline for the offensive, though the United Nations Security Council is expected to debate a resolution this week about a cease-fire.

Thousands of army reserves have been called up in recent days in advance of the decision, which is expected to lead to sending more troops into the border area. Israeli leaders have said they want to carve out a zone about 1 mile wide that would be free of Hezbollah emplacements.

Israeli forces have been operating in two segments of south Lebanon, sweeping through villages, fighting Hezbollah gunmen and leaving considerable destruction behind.

The participant said the international force must have the ability to intervene with force if necessary to keep Hezbollah guerrillas from returning to the border area.

And there is a definite outline of what it will take before the Israelis are willing to agree to a cease fire:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday told British Prime Minister Tony Blair that as soon as an international force deploys along the Israel-Lebanon and Lebanon-Syria borders, “it will be possible to implement a cease-fire.”

Also Monday, government and defense officials said that Israel will release two Lebanese prisoners in return for the two soldiers abducted by Hezbollah as part of a cease-fire agreement.

The sources added that the UN Security Council would call for a cease-fire in Lebanon on Friday, and it could take effect as early as Saturday.

Alternatively, the fighting might continue for a few more days.

In essence, here are Israel’s terms:

* No immediate cease fire.

* Israel will carry out offensive operations until an international force is in place to act as a buffer between Israel and both Hizbullah and Syria.

* Israel will exchange two Lebanese for the two IDF men being held by Hizbullah. No mass release of Lebanese prisoners thus denying Nasrallah a propaganda victory.

* The international force must be able to fire back if Hizbullah resists being disarmed or if they try to infiltrate back into southern Lebanon.

* No wide ranging political settlement with Lebanon that takes into account the “return” of the Shebaa Farms. No discussion of war compensation to Lebanon prior to the cease fire.

In short, Olmert and his cabinet are rejecting every single point made by Hassan Nasrallah who has demanded an immediate cease fire by Israel, a release of thousands of Lebanese being held in Israeli prisons, no international force (only an augment to UNIFIL), and the Lebanese government will be in charge of disarming Hizbullah only after a complete settlement between Israel and Lebanon is reached including the return of Shebaa.

The two sides couldn’t be farther apart.

Never fear. France is coming to the rescue of the Iranians, Syrians, and Hizbullah. If it wasn’t so goddamned predictable and serious, it might be fodder for a stand up comedy routine. France wants no part of any international force that has the slightest chance of incurring any casualties whatsoever. In fact, like Nasrallah, the French want all the “i’s” crossed and “t’s” dotted before they step foot one in Lebanon:

Yet as her plane made its way across the Atlantic, the fissures between the United States and its allies widened at the United Nations, where a meeting to craft plans for the international force was postponed after France declared it pointless without a political settlement between Israel and Lebanon.

“You know, France is in favor of setting up an international force to implement . . . a political settlement,” Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sablière said at the United Nations on Monday. “So it is important to have this political settlement before having the force deployed. And it is very difficult, we think — premature at least — to have such a meeting.”

And Rice may have scored something of a coup as she apparently has bypassed the French and forged a shaky consensus on the outlines of a cease fire with other Security Council members:

The United States will move for a resolution centered on three parts. The first is a cease-fire. The second is a set of political principles or framework for a long-term settlement to ensure that the flashpoints are eliminated so that fighting does not erupt in the weeks, months or years ahead, Rice said. The third will outline the sensitive mandate for the new “international stabilization force,” which will back up the Lebanese army as it spreads government authority throughout Lebanon, prevents the import of any new weapons to rearm Hezbollah, and keeps the peace.

The emerging consensus includes agreement on several points, Rice said. All armed groups would be prohibited in the zone where the international force is deployed. An international arms embargo, she said, must ensure that the only weapons allowed into Lebanon must be for the Lebanese government or the stabilization force.

No foreign troops except the stabilization force would be allowed in Lebanon. The Lebanese government and army would assume responsibility for disarming militias, with the “appropriate” assistance by the stabilization force, Rice said. Israel and Lebanon would fully accept the border as defined by the so-called Blue Line — a potentially contentious issue that involves the disputed Shebaa Farms area.

Meanwhile, Olmert gets another chance. The bombing pause may turn out to have been a godsend for the Israelis in that it has allowed international tempers to cool slightly while giving civilians in the south a chance to flee - something Hizbullah was preventing by setting up roadblocks:

Taking advantage of the abatement in bombing, Lebanese fled north Monday, and U.N. and other relief organizations accelerated the delivery of humanitarian supplies to the south Lebanon hills, where an estimated 750,000 people have been displaced by Israeli bombing over the last three weeks.

Fewer civilians means fewer propaganda points scored by Hizbullah once the Israelis begin to move. Those civilians are being evacuated by UN agencies and the Red Cross so Hizbullah can’t interfere:

Intense clashes continued well into Tuesday afternoon between IDF troops and Hizbullah guerrillas in the southern Lebanese town of Ayta a-Shab.

A total of five brigades were operating in the region and heavy gunfights were reported involving light machine guns and rockets.

The IDF said that the guerrillas fired anti-tank rockets at troops from a house in the town.

Meanwhile, the IDF distributed flyers, urging residents in the region north of the Litani River to leave their homes and head northward.

It is uncertain how far this incursion will go. If the IAF is dropping leaflets telling residents north of the Litani River to flee, that would mean a penetration of at least 15 miles - a good start but hardly what is needed.

If, as expected, Hizbullah’s crack military cadres stand and fight, there is every reason to believe that the Israelis will kill anyone who doesn’t run. Indeed, at this point, the “legend” of Hizbullah that has been advanced in this country regarding their “fighting abilities” would mean that any retreat by the terrorists would diminish their standing in the eyes of the world. For when you think about it, the “heroic” nature of Hizbullah is pretty pathetic. They are being lionized not because they are defeating the Israelis on the battlefield (in fact, they are getting slaughtered) but because they are not wetting their pants and running or immediately surrendering as other Arab armies have done.

Truly nauseating. The Israelis believe they have killed at least 200 of these crack Hizbullah troops while losing 25 soldiers themselves. Some estimates place the number closer to 400 Hizbullah fighters killed. If so, there is at least an 8-1 and perhaps as much as a 16-1 Israeli advantage - hardly the stuff of legend except for those desperate to build up the terrorists into something they aren’t; a match for the IDF on the battlefield.

This piece in today’s Haaretz sums up Olmert’s second chance at getting it right and committing more ground troops to do the job:

Olmert wants to take another stab at a decisive conclusion before the UN Security Council blows the final whistle. That’s why he convened the cabinet on Monday to approve a wide-scale ground operation targeting villages used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Olmert is fighting the battle over public opinion, both at home and abroad. He wants people to see the war as a victory, not a draw. It was this attitude that led Olmert to tell a conference of mayors on Monday that the operation is continuing despite the unfortunate deaths of dozens of Lebanese civilians in Qana Sunday.

“Israel is continuing to fight,” the prime minister said. One can imagine the slogan as part of a commercial for a bank, on billboards or car bumpers. “There is no cease-fire, and there will be no cease-fire in the upcoming days,” Olmert promised to the cheers of mayors in attendance. Conference participants made it clear they want the operation to continue.

With the people behind him for the moment, Olmert is rolling the dice once again, hoping he can roll up Hizbullah and punish them enough before the international community moves forcefully to stop him.

It is imperative that he succeed. Any other outcome is unthinkable.

UPDATE:

LFG reports that in Qana, they have pulled 28 bodies from the rubble of the building. The Lebanese government said 57 were killed, 36 children. Some published reports had the number as high as 60.

Even if it is “only” 28, that is still a tragic and significant loss of life. But I’m sure you’d agree it doesn’t sound as awful as 57 nor does has there been any explanation yet from anyone why the building collapsed 8 hours after the bomb hit.

Maybe instead of swallowing all the Hizbullah propaganda, our media could like, you know, confirm the facts before publishing?

Fat chance…

Following the tragic loss of 60 civilians in Qana as a result of an Israeli air strike on Hizbullah rocket launching positions, Prime Minister Olmert has declared a 48 hour halt to “aerial activity” over Lebanon:

Israel agreed to a 48-hour suspension of aerial activity over southern Lebanon after it bombed a Lebanese village on Sunday and a number of children died, a US official said.

The attack marred US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s weeklong mission to halt the fighting between Israel and Hizbullah.

The suspension of over-flights was announced by US State Department spokesman Adam Ereli. He said Israel has reserved the right to attack targets if it learns that attacks are being prepared against them.

It’s probable that the Israeli government announced this de facto bombing halt at the urging of US Secretary of State Condi Rice who just completed a round of talks with Olmert. Her trip back to Lebanon, however, has been cancelled by Prime Minister Siniora:

Saniora said Lebanon would be open only to an immediate cease-fire. “There is no place at this sad moment for any discussions other than an immediate and unconditional cease-fire as well as international investigation of the Israeli massacres in Lebanon now,” he told reporters Sunday.

The halt will be a godsend to Hizbullah who brought the bombing of Qana - the ancient city where it is said Christ performed the miracle of turning water into wine - on the civilians of that tragic town by using the streets and buildings as cover for their rocket launchers:

This morning, July 30, 2006, the IAF attacked missile launch sites in the area of the village of Qana, an area from which hundreds of missiles were launched towards the city of Nahariya and the communities in the western Galilee.

The IDF will defend the citizens of Israel from attacks by the Hizbullah and the responsibility for any civilian casualties rests with the Hizbullah who have turned the suburbs of Lebanon into a war front by firing missiles from within civilian areas.

Residents in this region and specifically the residents of Qana were warned several days in advance to leave the village. Eighteen Israeli civilians have been killed and over 400 have been wounded by these rocket attacks which have disrupted the lives of tens of thousands of Israeli citizens.

The IDF regrets any harm to uninvolved civilians, but this is the result of Hizbullah terrorist organization’s contemptible use of Lebanese civilians as human shields.

In addition to the statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has some eye opening video that clearly shows rockets being launched from between buildings in Qana.

In other words, the malicious bastards in Hizbullah, knowing that the rocket launches would draw immediate retaliation by the IAF, positioned their equipment so that maximum damage to civilian structures would ensue.

And it appears that this kind of cynicism is going to be rewarded as the nation’s of the world (including the United States) as well as the world press, and most of the left (who have been cheering on Hizbullah anyway) have gotten their way and Israel will now stop short of their stated goals of altering the situation on their northern border and trying to disarm Hizbullah.

For Hizbullah, it is a second Miracle at Qana.

The Hizbullah Hallelujah Chorus in the media and on the left has spent the last 24 hours ecstatically rolling in the blood of the civilians killed in Qana, dropping condemnatory bombs on the Israelis while being unable to display one iota of moral discrimination about the conflict. James Lewis at The American Thinker brilliantly elucidates this point:

We have lost elementary moral distinctions over the last century. As a culture, we pretend we cannot tell the difference between accidental shootings by police in pursuit of killers, and deliberate killing by those intent on destroying innocents. This is not, as the Left likes to boast, a reflection of our higher morality. It is a loss of elementary moral discrimination. We are much less moral than our ancestors of a hundred or two hundred years ago.

One role of the New Media must be to restore that common sense morality which says that hiding behind women and children in war is murder, plain and simple. The onus for murder is on the terrorist, not the cop.

There is a solution: It is for the media and the United Nations to rediscover the elementary moral distinctions of the original Geneva Conventions. Killing innocents is murder. Drawing enemy fire on children is evil. It’s not hard.

Any recognition of Mr. Lewis’ argument will come too late for Israel who will be enjoined from restarting the bombing probably by the United States who sees the diplomatic writing on the wall. It is simply unsustainable to furnish any more support for Israel’s bombing campaign against Hizbullah and their rocket launching sites. Indeed, judging by the reaction by the world community, it would be a dead certainty that Hizbullah would move their military activities even closer to residences in order to maximize civilian casualties.

I hope otherwise but world public opinion is so outraged at this point that it appears that unless Israel is willing to go it alone, the war may be over. Does George Bush have it within himself to continue to commit the US to standing with Israel against Hizbullah? I would hope that he would but at this point, I wouldn’t be too harsh on him if he urged Olmert to fold his cards and trust that the international community can summon the strength to force Hizbullah to accede to UN Resolution 1559 that mandates their disarming.

One final point: The unexplained gap of 8 hours between the time the building where 56 civilians lost their lives and its collapse will go mostly unnoticed in the media. It doesn’t fit the narrative of bloodthirsty Jews killing innocent babies for no reason. Also unnoticed will be the definitive proof that shows Hizbullah carrying out combat operations smack in the middle of suburban Beirut, giving the lie to idiotic imbeciles like Mitch Prothero of Slate.com who said that Hizbullah using civilians as human shields was a “myth.”

Israel is in a box. If they stop now, Hizbullah is a clear winner despite being pulverized by both the Israeli army and air force. Their simple survival will be spun by the media and the left as a great victory against those horrid Jews. But if they continue the war following this 48 hour bombing halt, they may have to do it without the support of the United States as Bush is coming under increasing domestic and international pressure to rein in the Israelis and force them agree to a cease fire while they are still short of their military goals.

Bush is going to earn his salary this week.

UPDATE

Ed Morrissey believes Hizbullah will honor the unilateral cease fire by the Israelis in the breach:

A suspension puts more pressure on Hezbollah than it does Israel. The world has screamed for a cease-fire, and Israel has conditionally agreed, at least for a short period. If Hezbollah quits firing over the border, the Israelis may extend it, allowing the conflict to settle. However, no one really believes that Hezbollah will honor this — after all, they started the war, and they obviously believe this plays to their benefit. Once they launch another rocket, all bets are off, and Israel will get at least another two weeks before the ADD-addled global diplomats again forget that Hezbollah started the war.

I predict that the suspension will not last; Hezbollah will continue its operations, providing yet another point of clarity in this conflict.

Okay, Captain, pass me some of that kool aid. I’ll take a sip…

Any rockets launched by Hizbullah in this cease fire period will be blamed on Israel because, although it wasn’t specifically mentioned, the cessation of air attacks will not preclude the IDF from attacking Hez positions in southern Lebanon on the ground.

But let’s explore your thesis further. Any “point in clarity” with regards to this conflict will not be recognized by the overwhelming majority of nations (including the EU) as well as most of the media and certainly the left in this country. For them, there is no moral clarity to be gleaned. Israel is at fault. Israel is using “disproportionate” force to protect themselves. Israel is bombing Lebanese civilians deliberately (”Hizbullah? Hiding among civilians?” It’s a myth.)

In short, those most in need of moral clarity are wearing blinders in the first place. It is left to you and me and those of us who recognize that Israel’s fight is our fight to delineate any moral distinctions to be had in this war.

TUNE INTO THE RICK MORAN SHOW FROM 7:00 AM - 9: AM CENTRAL TIME TODAYM 7/31 BY CLICKING THE “LISTEN LIVE” BUTTON IN THE LEFT SIDEBAR

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Wuzzat spell? HIZBULLAH! Louder! HIZBULLAH! I Can’t Hear You! HIZZZZZZBULLAH!
(Billmon of Whiskey Bar)

The Hizbullah cheerleading competition on the left has become a fierce battle between those who have become doe-eyed worshippers of the terrorist leader Nasty Nasrallah (currently in hiding from his rabid and overly demonstrative fans in the IDF) and his cadre of happy-go-lucky rocketeers and those who simply want to see Israel destroyed.

For the judges of the contest, this presents something of a dilemma. Do they deduct points for virulent hatred directed against Jews that blinds contestants to the finer points of cheerleading? Or do they penalize participants for their utter stupidity in cheering on their own potential beheaders thus demonstrating a third grader’s understanding of Pep Squad etiquette and self preservation instincts?

A close call, that. In desperation, the judges were forced to go to the videotape.

Billmon:

It seems more likely that the Israeli cabinet’s decision not to endorse the IDF’s plan for a major invasion was the proverbial blink in this eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation. I don’t even know if Olmert still has hopes of carving out a notional two-kilometer-wide DMZ along the border. I mean, it’s easy enough to say such a buffer zone exists, but if the Israelis really want one they’re going to have to fight Hizbullah for every inch of it. And as I said, it’s pretty clear the Israelis don’t have much of an appetite for that kind of fighting.

At this point, and until they show me otherwise, I have to assume the Israelis now would be very happy just to get back to the status quo ante.

There remains, however, the little problem of the steady steam (100 a day, give or take) of rockets falling on northern Israel, plus Hizbullah’s still-unused long-range “Tel Aviv” rockets. Yesterday’s strike on Afula (east and about 30 miles south of Haifa) was a reminder from Sheikh Nasrallah that he still has a few rungs left on his escalation ladder, and that the IDF hasn’t been any more successful at missile “plinking” than the U.S. Air Force was in Gulf War I.

The judges deducted 5 points immediately for Billmon’s disconnect from reality. One judge protested that in this kind of competition, the deduction was unfair because the same could be said for every single contestant, the competition being confined to leftist twits with no more grasp of strategy than a marmoset. However this judge summed it up nicely:

Only a true fool like this dolt (who is worshipped by the ‘progressive’ left) could look at a military operation and say that, because in less than three weeks Hezbollah can still fire off some completely ineffective rocket barrages that have no military impact whatsoever, and because they managed to kill a couple of dozen Israeli soldiers, that the action has been a ‘debacle’ for Israel. Last time I checked, Olmert was still in Israel, and Nasrallah was hiding behind his puppetmasters in Damascus. I guess the fact that he hasn’t been scared all the way to Tehran means that’s a defeat for Israel, too.

On the other hand, Billmon scored well in “Anti-Israeli Fundamentals” and in “Overall Appeal” to Hizbullah sympathizers. And while the judges felt his laughable ignorance of what was actually happening on the battlefield should be cause for a major deduction, Billmon made up for that negative by projecting typical leftist admiration for the tactics of terrorists. Slight deduction for not smiling enough and for the inadvertent showing his panties on the “basket toss.”

Next up, The Next Hurrah:

Hezbollah right now is operating in bunkers. All the news that comes out comes when one or another IDF soldier admits that they’re discovering Hezbollah to have well-disciplined, courageous fighters–which sends a more powerful message than all the Shock and Awe! you can muster. Meanwhile, Israel is very publicly bombing the sh*t out of Lebanon, yet it’s winning no apparent advantage from the bombing. The same, I suspect, will happen with this. Oh, I’m sure there’s pro-Hezbollah astroturf out there. But mostly, there’s just effective propaganda, winning the hearts and minds of other Arabs. Whereas Israel is conducting a very public campaign, but it appears to be dropping nothing but duds.

There was an immediate uproar from the judges following the viewing of this segment of the videotape. One judge asked if he could award a score lower than “zero” just for having to view such a nauseating routine. Another said it wasn’t so bad if you pretended “emptywheel,” the Captain of the squad, was mentally challenged and unable to differentiate between good and evil, right and wrong, friend and foe.

In the end, the judges awarded hefty style points for the way that the contestants marched in lockstep with other lefties as well as extra credit for adding inadvertent humor to the routine. Minor deduction for poorly disguising their obvious anti-semtism as well as turning too many handsprings in logic.

Finally, Cecilia Lucas (Common Dreams):

But I am making progress, seeking and finding new information, clearing some of the smoke. I am coming to terms with something that I’ve tried to deny, something I’ve been taught to deny. And so I have written a love poem. For Hizbullah. Like love that inspires poems often is, this love is not all rosy and sweet. It is complicated, tortured, frustrated, somewhat inappropriate, certainly scandalous, sometimes hesitant. It is irrational and overly rational. But still, it is love. A dear friend told me today, “Nobody ever really learns something without feeling something.” So, to Hizbullah, I offer this poem.

I Don’t Want to Love You, But I Do

You were born out of death to a life in a cage
Where bombs are not the only reason people die
Fed by the violence of hunger and homelessness
Raised by colonialism
Your heart and your will still grew strong

You scare me
Not just because they tell me to be scared
Not just because they repeat, repeat, repeat
The story of 1983
Begging me to understand
Americans are worth more than Lebanese

Why do they never tell me about Jihad al Bina
That you have created so much
Saved so many lives
Improved so many more…

After picking their jaws up off the floor, the judges went to work. Two judges wanted the contestant thrown out of the competition for making a mockery of the event. It simply wasn’t possible that Cecilia’s rank anti-Semitism and spectacularly ignorant views on Hizbullah could be taken seriously. It had to be parody. Or at the very least, a sick attempt to win the judges favor by being “too creative.”

Another judge pointed out that the contestant’s not disguising her disgusting Jew hatred was also cause for her being dismissed from the competition. It went against the tactics of the other contestants on the left who chose to hide their anti-Semitism by wishing for a Hizbullah victory all the while claiming they supported the existence of the Jewish state (most of the time).

But the majority of the judges decided to rate her team’s performance anyway. She actually got excellent marks for some of the routine, like when she performed her “Deadman” and the way in which she “attacked the crowd.”

But Cecelia received major deductions for sloppy thinking and a disconcerting lack of moral clarity. She received her biggest deduction for writing bad poetry, an unforgivable faux pas common among the left but largely absent from this particular competition. Slight deductions for a horrible costume (difficult to do jumps and splits in a burkha) and for rhetorically stumbling all over the place like a drunken sailor.

Who won? Perhaps I should open the comments up and let my readers vote. Have at it! And may the best leftist loon win…