Right Wing Nut House

There were more massive opposition protests today in Lebanon as hundreds of thousands of Hizbullah supporters took to the streets to demand the ouster of Prime Minister Sinora’s government.

Meanwhile, in Tripoli, hundreds of thousands more rallied in support of the government.

As Naharnet points out, the opposition has several agendas on display:

The anti-government rally in downtown Beirut, spearheaded by the Shiite Hizbullah, reflected three separate agendas by its main components.

Hizbullah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said the protest, launched on Dec. 1, would continue for as long as 10 months until the anti-government factions achieve veto-powered partnership in the administration to prevent alleged alliance of the country with U.S. President George Bush.

However, parliamentary deputy Michel Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement, pledged that the protesters would “in a few days declare our definite rejection of this government and we would ask for the formation of a transitional cabinet to organize new elections.”

Deputy Ali Hassan Khalil, a ranking leader of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Shiite Amal Movement, stressed on the demand for the formation of a National Unity government to ensure participation in the administration by the various Lebanese factions. He did not call for the resignation of Prime Minister Fouad Saniora.

Aoun’s threat was followed up with this chiller:

He said the Saniora government “does not deserve to stay in power for one hour more … in a few days we will declare our rejection of this government and we will ask for the formation of a transitional government to organize new elections.”

He threatened that the “barbed wire doest not protect government offices. In the coming days the protest will expand.”

Aoun noted that protesters in Ukraine had stormed parliament building to push for regime change “and no one said that was an illegal move.”

As far as storming the Grand Serail where Siniora’s March 14th government is holed up, Naharnet reports that Hizbullah may be preparing for just such an eventuality:

Meanwhile, the leading newspaper An Nahar reported that Hizbullah purchased thousands of army and police uniforms from a local company trading with such items in south Lebanon.

The respected newspaper did not elaborate on its short report, which sparked concern in security circles that Hizbullah’s trained and tested fighters might use the uniforms as disguise to attack the heavily-guarded government offices, which Saniora and his ministers have been using as residence, across the street from the angry protesters taking part in the city center sit-in.

A ranking security official told Naharnet, that a shipment of uniforms similar to what is used by the Lebanese army and police force has been “imported by a local merchant from India and was recently sold to a local faction.”

There would be many nefarious uses for these uniforms in the hands of Hizbullah, not the least of which would be to break into the Serail and either murder or arrest Siniora and his government. At the very least, it shows how determined Hassan Nasrallah is in achieving his goal of ousting Siniora.

Meanwhile in Tripoli, another large demonstration in support of the government called for the resignation of pro-Syrian puppet Emile Lahoud:

In Tripoli, 80 kilometers north of Beirut, hundreds of thousands of government sympathizers cheered as parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri addressed them through a telephone connection stressing that the Saniora “government would not fall. Lahoud would collapse.”

Hariri, the son of ex-premier Rafik Hariri who was assassinated by a huge blast targeting his motorcade in Beirut on February 2005, reminded sympathizers that Lahoud’s mandate in office was extended for three years by an illegal constitutional amendment under Syrian pressure in 2004.

Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April 2005, more than a month after the older Hariri assassination, for which it is blamed by supporters of the Saniora government.

There are many March 14th supporters who want to see Siniora and the government get more aggressive in reining in Hizbullah:

Speaking bluntly and plainly of Hezbollah and its lout-in-chief is what is missing today in Lebanon’s war of words. Calling a hoodlum a Sayyid and referring to his illegal militia as a Resistance is not only mendacious and hypocritical. It is outright dangerous. The March 14 culture is deluding itself thinking flattery and verbal gymnastics will assuage the Hezbollah bogeyman and his frothy mouthpiece. Semantics do matter. And as long as the March 14 jellyfish keep massaging the feelings of thugs and bullies, and as long as they keep spewing jaded rhetorical circumlocutions and euphemisms (to avoid calling a spade a spade), Nasrallah and his goons’ delusions arrogance and jingoist erections will remain on the upswing, until Lebanon is no more!

Siniora has been walking on eggshells when it comes to dealing with Nasrallah and Hizbullah since he came to power. Whether it’s because he fears civil war or simply Hizbullah’s guns doesn’t matter. Nasrallah and Aoun can be as irresponsible as they wish because they know that Siniora will go to great lengths to avoid a direct, armed confrontation.

Neither of those two want a civil war either - at least that’s what they piously proclaim. But as long as they can push Siniora to the wall without fear of any consequences, they will continue to test the Prime Minister’s patience and forbearance. In a way, this is even more dangerous because no one knows what Siniora’s breaking point and just as importantly, the breaking point of the Sunnis might be. At this point, it wouldn’t take much for the streets to erupt.

I can’t shake the feeling that things are moving toward some kind of resolution. With this latest report about the uniforms along with the fact that Nasrallah must know he can’t keep his followers in the streets forever, Hizbullah may feel they have no alternative but to force the issue of Siniora’s resignation by staging some kind of attack on government building. It may appear to be a “spontaneous” outburst by demonstrators. But no one will believe it. And therein lies the seeds of an explosion in violence that would rock the entire Middle East.

This article originally appears in The American Thinker

Despite being under enormous pressure, the March 14th Forces and Prime Minister Siniora are continuing to resist calls for their resignations and the formation of a Hezb’allah dominated “National Unity Government.” Clashes in the streets between Shias and Sunnis have already cost the life of one young protester while the anti-government forces continue to surround the Grand Serail, in effect besieging the government.

Last Friday, it appears that Hezb’allah’s plans for storming the government building where Prime Minister Siniora and his cabinet have taken up residence since the assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel were foiled only by the personal intervention of Saudi King Abdullah and the Lebanese Army who appealed to Speaker Nabih Berri to intercede with Hassan Nasrallah, Hezb’allah’s leader. The group had placed roadblocks all around the Grand Serail and refused to allow any access to the building. Hezb’allah protesters also shut down the vital road to the airport. Following the King’s intercession, some of the roadblocks were lifted but Hezb’allah has made it clear that they can be re-established at any time.

During the week, the crowds of anti-government protesters dwindled to just a few thousand but opposition leaders kept up their barrage of insults and charges directed against Siniora and his government. On Thursday, Nasrallah addressed the nation via the Hezb’allah propaganda arm al-Manar and with the crowd in front of the Grand Serail cheering his image projected onto gigantic TV screens, the Shia leader escalated his anti-government rhetoric, accusing the Siniora government of working with the United States to urge Israel to attack Hezb’allah last summer as well as interdicting arms meant to resupply his militia in the south:

“Some of the March 14 Forces, whom I will not reveal their names, sat with the Americans and urged them to ask Israel to launch war against Hizbullah,” Nasrallah claimed in a speech broadcast by several Lebanese and Arab television stations Thursday evening.
“Those are the ones responsible for the war, not the resistance,” Nasrallah charged.

Nasrallah accused Saniora of ordering the Lebanese army, during the July-August war with Israel, to “confiscate the resistance weapons that are being carried to south Lebanon.”

In separate statements released by Saniora’s office as well as the Lebanese army command, both dismissed Nasrallah’s allegations as untrue.

“It appears that Sayyed Nasrallah …has fallen victim of conspiracy and rumors spread by external intelligence,” Saniora’s statement said.

The Hezb’allah leader also rejected the idea that he was carrying out a coup while vowing not to leave the streets until Siniora’s government gives way to a unity government. He has called for an even more massive demonstration on Sunday, also promising to keep the protests peaceful, saying “We will win with our voices, and not with our arms!”

But interspersed throughout his bombastic address, Nasrallah made it plain that there was going to be a change at the top - one way or another. Addressing the March 14th majority in the cabinet, Nasrallah warned, “But soon, we will not listen anymore and will not want a government headed by any one of you,” a clear threat of a coup given that Parliament is the only body that could remove the Prime Minister and his government.

For their part, the March 14th Forces have begun escalating their rhetoric as well. In a nationally televised address on Friday, Prime Minister Siniora dropped his normally smiling and low-key manner and lashed out at the Hezb’allah leader. He accused Nasrallah of trying to engineer a coup (the first time that the Prime Minister had done so personally) and ridiculed Nasrallah’s rhetoric:

Addressing Nasrallah, Saniora asked: “who gave you the authority to say I am right and who do not agree with me are wrong?”

“You are not our Lord and the party (Hizbullah) is not our Lord … Who appointed you to say I am right and all else is wrong?” Saniora asked Nasrallah.

Siniora also left the door open for negotiations. In fact, the Prime Minister has been pleading with the opposition to come back to the table for talks since the Shia ministers left the cabinet almost two months ago. Nasrallah is having none of it. At the moment, he feels he has the upper hand. And with the prospect of another huge crowd in the streets on Sunday, anything would be possible.

There were two major efforts to resolve the crisis this past week. The first involved a former member of Parliament and Sunni scholar Fathi Yakan, representing the party of former pro-Syrian Prime Minister Omar Karami, who proposed a cabinet made up of 19 members of March 14th, 9 members from the opposition bloc, and 2 “independent” members thus denying a supermajority to March 14th but also veto power to the opposition. Siniora rejected the proposal, feeling quite rightly that any compromise that did not recognize the fact that March 14 won a majority in the election last year would undercut the democratic nature of his government. Not that it mattered. Nasrallah rejected the compromise out of hand.

The second effort is ongoing and shows some promise. The council of Maronite Bishops has called for early Presidential elections, ratification of the International Tribunal, and an “entente” government. Nasrallah professes to be interested and the Prime Minister has not rejected the plan either. The prospect of an early Presidential election would definitely appeal to Nasrallah’s junior partner in the opposition, Michel Aoun, whose Presidential ambitions have become something of a running gag in Lebanon.

Despite this glimmer of hope, the crisis remains. And Nasrallah, who went into the streets two weeks ago, confident that his masses of devotees could bring a quick end to the Siniora government, may, as Michael Young points out, have overplayed his hand:

Hizbullah’s strategy is now clear, its repercussions dangerous. The party is pushing Lebanon into a protracted vacuum, in which low-level violence and economic debilitation become the norm. Hizbullah is calculating that its adversaries will crack first, because they have more at stake than do poor Shiites when it comes to the country’s financial and commercial health. Its leaders know the powerful symbolism associated with dispatching thousands of destitute people into the plush downtown area, which best symbolizes that financial and commercial health - the jewel in late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s reconstruction crown.

Hizbullah’s reckoning is profoundly cynical. Its manipulation of the alleged Shiite ability to withstand more hardship than other Lebanese shows disdain for Shiite aspirations. The fact that everyone will lose out after an economic meltdown, which is coming, seems obvious. But that Hizbullah should take it as a sign of strength that Shiites would lose relatively less because of their poverty is abhorrent. The party has nonetheless made clear to its interlocutors that it will not give up on Syria and Iran. Hence the perilous path it is pursuing, along with Syria’s satellites and the futile Michel Aoun as water carriers.

Young, Opinion Editor of The Daily Star hits upon one of the major divides in Lebanese society; the Shias are very poor and have never shared in the economic life of the country.

It would be a mistake to underestimate the feelings of inferiority and resentment that have built up over the years in the Shia community. Nasrallah has skillfully played upon these feelings, making Hezb’allah not just resistance fighters against Israel but also champions of the Shia underclass. With Iran’s help, Nasrallah has established a separate and distinct social structure for southern Lebanese Shias outside of the government, with health clinics, food banks, schools, and other outward manifestations of government.

It has bred fanatical loyalty and devotion among the Shias toward his militia. As the Shia see it, Nasrallah is not carrying out a coup against the government as much as he’s standing up for the Shia, getting them proper representation in the councils of government. In this respect, most Shias do not see what is happening in front of the Grand Serail as pro-Syrian or pro-Iranian. They feel themselves as much a nationalist party as March 14th and their protests as legitimate as those that helped drive the Syrian army out of Lebanon last spring.

And Michael Young, who likens Hezb’allah’s efforts to those of the Soviet’s successful coup of the Czechoslovakian government in 1948, shows why this dream of Shia dominance of Lebanon will not be realized:

The Syrian and Iranian project can be derailed by a combination of other scenarios as well: Sectarian tension increases to the extent that President Bashar Assad’s regime is threatened by a violent Sunni backlash from Lebanon, and perhaps Iraq; the international community, notably Israel, decides it cannot accept a return to the status quo ante in South Lebanon; and Lebanese leaders in danger of physical or political elimination because of a Syrian return - principally Walid Jumblatt, Saad Hariri, and Samir Geagea - pursue a bitter, existential fight, preventing Hizbullah from controlling the situation on behalf of Damascus and Tehran. The implacable theorems of Lebanon’s formula of national coexistence have demolished far more powerful forces than Hizbullah.

Another flaw in Syrian and Iranian reasoning is hubris. Despite the tactical parallels in the staging of a coup, Lebanon is no Czechoslovakia. Tehran, Damascus, and Hizbullah imagine the country can be conquered, with Hizbullah somehow emerging on top. Only the fundamentally intolerant can fall for such a tidy, straightforward conceit. But that’s not really how things work in Lebanon’s confessional disorder. We may be in the throes of a faltering coup, but the ultimate challenge is to avoid being inadvertently manhandled by Hizbullah into a war nobody wants.

“A war nobody wants” but that may become inevitable unless Nasrallah can climb back from the very long limb he finds himself on at the moment. He has promised to stay in the streets until he gets a unity government acceptable to him. Anything less and his stock goes down with the Shias who have poured into the streets, answering his call for peaceful revolution. In effect, if Nasrallah gives up, he will lose credibility - not just with the Lebanese Shia but with his patrons in Tehran and Damascus as well as the “Arab street” who he claims is with him.

If that happens, he may be a very long time recovering his lost aura of invincibility.

As Hizbullah continues to ratchet up the tension in Beirut, frantic behind the scenes efforts by Arab diplomats and others to find a political solution to the crisis are picking up steam:

International and local efforts to contain the rising political tension picked up Monday, after a Shiite protester’s death raised fears that anti-government demonstrations could reignite sectarian clashes. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa warned that the crisis could worsen. Speaking during a 24-hour visit to Beirut, Moussa indicated that he had discussed a possible solution with Lebanese officials.

Moussa, who also met with Hizbullah officials, said that “the whole Arab arena can’t stand by and watch.”

After a visit to pro-opposition President Emile Lahoud, Moussa was asked for details about his efforts to broker a deal, replying: “It is still at the beginning, but I see that it is a start that gives some hope.”

“Yes, I am worried about the situation,” he told reporters. “However, if we all join hands we can save this country.”

Many observers believe that the situation is beyond compromise and that only total capitulation by Siniora’s government or total victory by Hizbullah in some kind of engineered coup will end the standoff:

Lebanon’s army commander warned the government that the daily protests and riots might get out of control, several newspapers reported Tuesday, as the authorities reported another night of unrest in the capital.

The comments of Gen. Michel Suleiman showed that the military was concerned that the political crisis between the pro-Western, Sunni Muslim prime minister and the pro-Syrian, Shi’ite Muslim-led opposition was approaching dangerous levels.

Thousands of troops are deployed across the capital where, since Friday, the Hizbullah-led opposition has been convening daily demonstrations to topple the government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

Large crowds were expected later Tuesday at the funeral of a Shi’ite Muslim youth, Ahmed Mahmoud, 21, who was shot dead in street clashes in the Beirut district of Qasqas on Sunday. Further clashes took place in the nearby neighborhood of Tarik Jedideh on Monday night, when two people were wounded, police said.

“The absence of political solutions, along with the recurrence of security incidents, particularly those with sectarian tinge, drains the army’s resources and weakens its neutrality,” Suleiman was quoted as saying. “This weakness will make the army unable to control the situation in all areas of Lebanon.”

While the diplomats talk, Hizbullah is carrying out what appears to some as a detailed and coordinated plan to overturn the government:

From Saturday late night into the early hours of the morning, more incursions by HizbAllah’s elements were signaled inside the traditional Sunni West Beirut. A battle with rocks took place in many streets leaving a number of wounded and one HizbAllah militiaman dead. The Iranian-backed militants staged their “thrusts” into Sunni areas from their launching pad in the “protest” areas in downtown, commonly described by the opponents as the “coup d’Etat” basis. According to sources in the Lebanese Army, the gradual “coup” is taking place with a minute preparation coordinated by the Iranian embassy in Beirut. A “War room,” including HizbAllah, Syrian intelligence, President Lahoud’s secret services, Baath Party, Syrian National-Socialists and representatives from General Michel Aoun’s group, is directing the campaign.

On the political level, the single most important development is the decision made by the March 14 movement and the Cedars Revolution leaders to “move the headquarters of the Government to Mount Lebanon if the Syro-Iranian militias would overrun the Prime Minister’s office.” Such a decision means that the Seniora cabinet and the leaders of the anti-Syrian majority in Lebanon will resist the onslaught of HizbAllah’s forces and would eventually call on the people to oppose the coup d’Etat. In Washington and Paris, Governmental sources said that bringing down the Government outside the Parliament is a red line. In New York, the Security Council members, particularly the US and French delegations have clearly signified their rejection of a violent crumbling of a democratically elected cabinet. This view is widely shared by the majority of Arab moderate countries, including Egypt, Jordan and Morocco.

Dr. Phares, a very good analyst, leaves the definition of “red line” up in the air. The phrase goes with a question I asked on Sunday: What will the world do to save Lebanon?

Nasrallah is counting on the world (including much of the Arab world) acquiescing in his coup. This is because he plans on observing the Lebanese constitution once he rids himself of the March 14th coalition. He has already designated Former Prime Minister Omar Karami (a Sunni) to succeed Siniora, a move designed to placate world opinion - despite the fact that Karami is a notorious tool of Syria. And it is likely that any faux “Unity Government” he installs will make its first project a reform of the outdated electoral law. Somehow, one can imagine that when bringing the law up to date, Nasrallah will find a way to marginalize the March 14th forces and, when the expected new elections are called for, elevate his pro-Syrian coalition to majority status.

This brings us back to what Washington and Paris mean by a coup being a “red line” that Nasrallah dare not cross. Are the two nations willing to go to war with Hizbullah? Are they willing to go to the United Nations and ask UNIFIL to protect the Siniora government? Do they have something else beside total surrender in mind?

If so, they best get busy. The clashes in the streets are bringing the nation closer to open warfare:

Hundreds of army troops in armored vehicles stepped in, firing warning shots in the air to break up renewed clashes late Monday between government supporters and protesters vowing to topple Premier Fouad Saniora’s cabinet.

About 300 angry protesters also blocked the Beirut airport highway after midnight, but the Lebanese army intervened and opened the road.

Fighting broke out in several predominantly Sunni neighborhoods after nightfall Monday as the body of Ahmed Mahmoud, who was killed in a similar street fight, was brought by ambulance to downtown Beirut, where thousands of Hizbullah-led protesters were camping for the fourth straight night demanding to overthrow Saniora’s government.

On Tuesday, angry mourners buried Mahmoud in the “Two Martyrs” cemetery in Beirut’s Shiite southern suburb, two days after the tragic death by gunfire from a mysterious source.

Hizbullah accused three persons from the predominantly Sunni Mustaqbal movement of shooting Mahmoud, 20, in a clash on Sunday night.

There are so many reports of Syrian intelligence infiltrating these mobs that they can’t all be rumors. Saudi Arabia believes that Syria has taken an active role in fomenting violence. So do many western governments. And the unrest is putting enormous pressure on Siniora to spare the nation a bloody civil war and resign. However, it appears that March 14th will not go without a fight of some kind, although it is difficult to imagine any of their militias standing up in open combat to Hizbullah’s crack troops.

It is equally difficult to see Hizbullah backing away by agreeing to some political settlement that doesn’t give them everything they are asking for; resignation of the government and the establishment of a government of national unity with leaders designated by Nasrallah. Anything less would not be acceptable to President Assad - even if the government agreed to the dropping of the International Tribunal. Both Assad and Nasrallah are committed to playing out their coup scenario to the end. And it is difficult to imagine a sequence of events that would lead to anything accept surrender by Siniora or civil war.

If the west were to attempt to assist Siniora, he would lose support among some of the swing Christians and Sunnis who are already suspicious of America and France’s friendship. Clearly, any help would have to come from Arab states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia - two nations who have made it clear that any move by Hizbullah to overthrow the government would be seen as illegal and unacceptable. How that would translate into anything other than moral support is difficult to see. Neither nation wants to fight Hizbullah either.

And don’t expect any help for Siniora to come from the United Nations - not with Russia ready to play her veto card if things get dicey in the Security Council. The Russians still consider Syria an ally and would not allow the timid diplomats at the UN to get any ideas about rescuing Siniora and democracy in Lebanon.

Would the Lebanese army fight for the government? It is believed that much of that army is pro-Syrian or, at least pro-Hizbullah. So far, General Suleiman has made all the right noises about the army staying above the fray - which means that in the event of an armed coup, they would probably have a good excuse to sit on the sidelines. Siniora may be able to count on several hundred troops and little more. For the rest, he must look to the militias for protection.

So in the end, the government of Prime Minister Siniora finds themselves facing Hizbullah with little prospect of outside help and only the amateurish, untrained sectarian militias to stand against Hizbullah’s well armed, highly trained cadres of fanatics. And as Lebanon rushes toward the abyss, there appears to be little that can be done to prevent a tragedy being engineered by Damascus and Tehran.

Syrian President Assad has apparently decided to move things along in Lebanon. He is flooding the country with weapons and operatives in order to initiate a coup d’etat against he government of Prime Minister Siniora:

Abu Kais:

According to al-Seyassah, weapons are pouring into the country through the Syrian border, accompanied by terrorist groups run by Syrian intelligence. Fouad Siniora has been advised by world capitals to shut down the border with Syria to prevent a “catastrophe”.

Thousands of Syrian reservists and hundreds of intelligence agents who were naturalized during the Syrian era have entered the country and re-organized themselves. According to a diplomat from the Gulf quoted by the Kuwaiti paper, weapons are being “distributed like candy” and Syrian intelligence has returned to posts it had evacuated in 2005.

Tens of trucks reportedly delivered explosives to Hizbullah warehouses in the southern suburb. Parking lots in Beirut, Tripoli, Sidon and Baalbeck have been transformed into workshops to booby-trap cars, in an apparent preparing for a full scale civil war in the country. (If this is true, the Saudi King’s warning that he will not let Lebanon turn into another Iraq suddenly makes sense). Al-Seyassah claimed that Hizbullah moved some of their rockets to Beirut for possible use against security forces protecting the Grand Serail.

In another report, al-Seyassah detailed the sending of thousands of Syrians and Palestinians into Lebanon by the Assad regime (which, incidentally, has openly declared its support for the efforts to topple the government) to incite the demonstrators and enflame conflicts. The Assad regime also instructed its Lebanese mouthpieces to intensify verbal attacks against the Sunni mufti, Maronite patriarch, and the government. It also ordered Hizbullah to keep its blockade of the Serail.

Syrians have been arrested throwing rocks at Sunnis near where the riots broke out earlier in which at least one man was shot to death. And if any of the above reports are true, it would appear that Assad has decided to plunge Lebanon into a civil war where Hizbullah’s superior firepower and disciplined troops will make a huge difference.

What will the world do? What will the US do? This is the nation that the “realists” want to negotiate with - a country that negotiates with its neighbor by trying to murder its national leaders and initiate a civil war that could possibly kill thousands.

If Assad acts like this while talking to Lebanon, how do you expect him to be when talking to us?

The Syrian President is behaving as if he has some kind of carte blanche to carry out his illegal plans. I’d hate to think he got the idea that the US needs him so much to help facilitate our exit in Iraq that we won’t lift a finger to save our democratic allies in Lebanon. But after recently sending 200 assassins into Lebanon and widely publishing a death list and now this jaw dropping escalation, what else is one to think? The brazenness of these moves are unprecedented. He is not even trying to hide his complicity in Lebanon’s destruction as an independent state.

What will the world do? What the world usually does. Not too damn much.

While the Hizbullah siege of Prime Minister Siniora’s government continues, Sunnis and Shias had a confrontation at two different points in the tense city:

Opposition and government supporters on Sunday were engaged in two separate street fights in Beirut, as opposition leader Talal Arslan pledged to “smash the government under the boots.”

Security sources said four people were wounded in the clashes which took place in the densely-populated Tarik Jedideh neighborhood and on the Badaro-Qasqas highway.

Shiite supporters from the southern suburbs trying to infiltrate into Tarik Jedideh, a low-income Sunni quarter, clashed with pro-government supporters with stones, sticks and knives, witnesses told Naharnet.

They said sporadic bursts of automatic gunfire could be heard in the confrontation which lasted about 45 minutes before army troops and police patrols stepped in to disengage the opponents.

The army threw a security dragnet in Tarik Jedideh in an effort to prevent followers of the pro-Syrian Hizbullah and Amal movement from stirring trouble in the Sunni neighborhood.

Another confrontation was reported between supporters of Hizbullah and Amal and others from the Lebanese Forces, the Christian faction led by Samir Geagea, on the Badaro-Qasqas highway.

It appears to me that by “infiltrating” the Sunni quarter, Hassan Nasrallah’s Hizbullah was seeking to deliberately provoke a confrontation. Perhaps if it is violent enough, it will give him an excuse to deploy his crack militia - perhaps even attack the government building he has now surrounded and, for all practical purposes, holds under siege.

Nasrallah does not appear to want to wait long to force a denouement to this crisis. His provocative move of surrounding the government building on Friday and setting up roadblocks to prevent any assistance from reaching Siniora and his cabinet (who have been holed up in the fortress like building since the funeral of Pierre Gemayel) would seem to indicate that he believes time is not on his side. Only the intervention of the Saudi Ambassador who phoned Speaker Nabih Berri lifted the “blockade: set up by Hizbullah:

Hizbullah protestors, vowing to topple the cabinet, have briefly besieged government headquarters in downtown Beirut, holding up Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and several other ministers inside.

But Saniora, vowing not to “allow any coup against our democratic regime,” stood rock-solid Friday to the blockade, which eventually eased following a flurry of diplomatic activity.

As news of the siege reached New York and Saudi Arabia, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz telephoned Saniora to express support for his government.

French President Jacque Chirac and Jordan’s King Abdullah II were also among the leaders who phoned in their support to Saniora’s government.

A government source said the blockade was lifted late Friday after diplomatic “contacts” had been made with pro-Syrian Speaker Nabih Berri as well as the Lebanese army command.

Youth and Sports Minister Ahmed Fatfat, who was among the ministers holed up with Saniora, said the Saudi ambassador in Beirut called Berri, an ally of Hizbullah, the main opposition group, to help “stop the siege”.

“Berri played a very positive role … especially since there were reports that there would be a break-in” into Saniora’s offices, Fatfat told the pro-government Future television. He was speaking from inside the compound.

The leading daily An Nahar said Saturday that “disciplinary members” from Hizbullah quickly set up tents around Saniora’s offices as the protest dwindled late Friday afternoon, blocking access to the Grand Serail.

The crowds of protesters have been dwindling over the last 24 hours although there are still several hundred thousand people present. Perhaps Nasrallah wants to finish off the government while he still has some muscle in the streets.

Abu Kais has some insightful thoughts, including some inside news on some other provocations by Hizbullah:

LBC is reporting riots involving Sunnis and Shias in the neighborhood of Qasqas as I type this. The Lebanese army has intervened. (Update: The clashes were reportedly between a Hizbullah convoy passing through the area and Sunni residents)

Yesterday, around 300 Hizbullah members reportedly chased a man who hurled insults at Hassan Nasrallah and then fled towards nearby Ashrafieh. The Lebanese army stopped the advance of the militia on the Christian neighborhood and arrested the individual, who turned out to be a Syrian citizen by the name of Hamzah Mohamad Sadeq Ismail. Al-Mustaqbal described this as a Syrian intelligence attempt to create clashes, although one wonders what Hizbullah was thinking by sending 300 members to a Christian neighborhood boiling with rage.

Following a meeting yesterday with representatives from the Internal Security Forces and the Lebanese army, the Iran-funded militia has refused yet again to remove its tents and clear the main road leading to the Grand Serail. An-Nahar reported that Hizbullah’s information warfare division has been filming the area around the Serail. It is not clear what this means. A Hizbullah-Syrian attempt to storm the building was foiled on the first day of the protest, after an intervention by the Saudi King via Nabih Berri, who has promised to resolve the situation in a couple of days.

I speculated last week that Berri may be the key to resolving the crisis. He was the only major Shia politician to attend the Gemayel funeral. And he has made conciliatory noises about the Tribunal (although his attitude hardened after a trip to Tehran). The party Berri heads, Amal, used to be Hizbullah’s enemy with several bloody clashes taking place during the civil war. And Amal is not a religious party per se; it represents the Shias but more in terms of economic and cultural matters.

But Berri is definitely pro-Syrian. And Amal has shown no desire to join the democrats in freeing Lebanon from the grip of Syrian hegemony. If Berri is to play a role in peacemaking, it will be out of a desire to keep Nasrallah from pulling the nation into another civil war - something none of the factions want.

The Sunni-Shia clashes are ominous. One wonders what tomorrow will bring as Nasrallah continues to ratchet up the pressure on the Siniora government while the nation holds its breath and prays for peace.

UPDATE: AP REPORTS ONE DEAD, 10 INJURED

Here’s the AP story:

Violent clashes broke out Sunday between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in the capital, leaving one man dead from gunshot wounds at a time when tensions throughout Lebanon threaten the country’s fragile sectarian and political balance.

Tension has been running high in Lebanon, particularly since Friday when Hezbollah supporters began an open-ended sit-in in Beirut in an effort to bring down the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

Saniora, emboldened by Arab and international support for his U.S.-backed government, vowed on Sunday to stay in office despite the ongoing protests.

Amid the sound of revolutionary and nationalist songs blaring from protesters’ tents set up in the heart of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, a Mass was held at Saniora’s office in memory of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel who was assassinated by gunmen in a Beirut suburb last month.

The service appeared to be a show of solidarity with the government, which draws its support largely from Sunni

It is possible that the confrontation was by happenstance and not by design. That hardly makes it any less ominous. Clearly, Nasrallah is expecting and indeed counting on such confrontations that may give him an excuse to move against the government.

UPDATE II

Dan Riehl has an interesting historical comparison between the siege of Vienna in 1529 and the current siege in Lebanon of Siniora’s government.

I see where he’s going but somehow, I don’t think Nasrallah is going to be quite as patient as that long ago Muslim leader Suleiman the Magnificent.

PART OF A MASSIVE CROWD GATHERED IN DOWNTOWN BEIRUT IN SUPPORT OF HIZBULLAH’S EFFORT TO BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER SINIORA

A crowd estimated at hundreds of thousands is occupying central Beirut today in a massive “open ended sit in” organized by Hizbullah and designed to topple the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora:

Hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters led by the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hizbullah staged an open-ended sit-in in downtown Beirut Friday in a bid to topple Prime Minister Fouad Saniora’s government.

Army troops and armored personnel carriers were heavily deployed around Saniora’s offices, where the premier and other cabinet ministers have been residing for over a week after the assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel.

Barbed wire fences as high as two meters were erected around the premises as heavily-armed troops kept demonstrators around 150 meters away.

In an apparent effort to avoid friction, Hizbullah “disciplinary members” formed a chain separating the protesters from security forces.

Protesters brandished Lebanese flags and white banners that read: “Down with Feltman’s government,” in reference to the Saniora cabinet which has been termed by Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah the government of U.S. ambassador Jeffrey Feltman.

“We want a national unity government,” and “We want a clean government,” other banners read.

Obviously well organized, most of these people don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. This leaves Siniora with something of a dilemma. Does he crack down by having the army move in to scatter the protesters? Or does he try and wait Nasrallah out, hoping that a firm stand will call Hizbullah’s bluff?

The problem with the former option is that it almost certainly will ignite sectarian violence. And the problem with the latter is that evidently, Nasrallah plans on escalating things until he gets what he wants: Siniora gone and a “National Unity Government” that will give Hizbullah veto power over the cabinet in his place:

Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Kassem said the protests would not end until Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s cabinet fell.

“This government will not take Lebanon to the abyss. We have several steps if this government does not respond but I tell them you will not be able to rule Lebanon with an American administration,” he told Hezbollah’s al-Manar television.

One shudders to contemplate what “several steps” Nasrallah might have in mind to hasten Siniora’s exit.

In a bid to keep the number of protesters down, the government apparently closed roads into Beirut:

Will Beirut be transformed today into the “capital of Arabism, resistance and unity,” as Hassan Nasrallah described it yesterday in a statement, or will Lebanon come under a regime of “religious tyranny,” as Marwan Hamade, minister of communications and an associate of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, warns? The efforts of Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, to find some magical formula to avert the danger will continue today, but it seems that Nasrallah will not pass up a show of force, something he has been planning for weeks and which was postponed following the assassination of Pierre Gemayel.

The government of Lebanon is preparing for such an eventuality, with roads in the outskirts of Beirut being closed by the army in an effort to prevent Hezbollah supporters from the countryside entering the city and moving toward the main squares. But it is clear to both sides that the situation is so explosive that any violent confrontation in one of the districts is capable of setting Lebanon ablaze, even though both the government and Hezbollah are talking of quiet demonstrations and strikes.

Anti-American sentiment is running high among the protesters, ginned up by the Hizbullah propaganda arm al-Manar, whose broadcasts have been referring to Siniora’s government as “Feltman’s Government” - a reference to US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Nasrallah himself has taken up this mantra and it seems to have its desired effect; many protesters are carrying signs referring to Feltman and undue American influence in Lebanon.

Druze leader Walid Jumblat - who knows a thing or two about survival - urged his March 14th comrades to remain patient:

“Very calmly, we will remain steadfast,” he told a news conference on Friday. “We will confront (the opposition) calmly. We will remain in our houses and fly the Lebanese flags… We will wait for a month, for two months… and watch them.”

Siniora himself addressed the nation with a plea for calm but made it clear that the democratically elected government would not give in to Hizbullah’s demands:

Premier Fouad Saniora warned Thursday that Lebanon’s democracy is in danger but vowed that his government will fight attempts to bring back foreign tutelage on Lebanon.

“Lebanon’s independence is threatened and its democratic system is in danger,” Saniora said in a nationally televised address from the Grand Serail, on the eve of street protests by Hizbullah and its allies aimed at ousting his cabinet.

“Do not be afraid and do not despair. We have a rightful cause,” Saniora told the Lebanese. “Threats will not deter us. Maneuvers and ultimatums will not terrorize us.”

He said his government will fight against “the return of the tutelage,” an apparent reference to Syria’s military and political domination in Lebanon which ended in April 2005.

“We will not allow any coup against our democratic regime,” he said.

Saniora also urged the Lebanese to stand by the “legitimate” government, adding that the only way to bring down the cabinet is through the legislature.

“There is no way to topple the government except through parliament which has given it its vote of confidence,” he said.

Parliament has been effectively prorogued which means that if Hizbullah is going to bring down the government, more drastic action will be necessary.

For the March 14th Forces, it is now a matter of survival. Nasrallah has placed himself out on a limb from which he cannot easily crawl back. If he and his bully boys leave the streets without bringing down the government, it would be a huge blow to his prestige and set back his cause months, perhaps forever. This is why I believe it is likely that, in the end, Nasrallah will be forced to resort to the gun in order to get his way.

His patrone in Damascus may be able to engineer an “incident” that would justify Hizbullah’s coup - at least in the eyes of the Shias. At that point, the two sides would begin tearing at each other.

Most analysts expect Hizbullah to win something of a quick victory given the fact that they are better armed than any potential coalition of adversaries and better trained than the Lebanese army (who would probably sit out a civil war anyway). But what Nasrallah would then do with the smoking ruins of the tiny country remains to be seen. Once ignited, a civil war has a nasty habit of simmering for years. And any effort he would make to establish an Islamic theocracy like the one in Iran would be met with stiff opposition from this, the most secular and westernized of Arab states.

Abu Kais blogging over at Michael Totten’s blog sums up his feelings poignantly:

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora delivered another pretty speech which I won’t quote, because I think it’s useless, given that the man will keep turning the other cheek until he ends up on Hizbullah and Assad’s cross.

My emotions are clearly running high. All I see in front me, as a Lebanese Shia, is Nasrallah’s face as he kidnaps my child into the servitude of his dark lords.

Courage my friend.

HIZBULLAH SEEMS TO HAVE ORGANIZED THE DEMONSTRATION EXTREMELY WELL. IN ADDITION TO PORTABLE TOILETS, THE TENTS ARE FOR MEDICAL PERSONNEL. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FOOD ARE BEING BROUGHT IN TO FEED THE MULTITUDES.

THE FACE OF THE FUTURE IN LEBANON?

UPDATE

Jim Hoft: “There is still a cancer in Lebanon.” Indeed.

Malkin: “Where are the pro-Western, anti-jihad demonstrators?” For the moment, quiescent. Some Lebanese bloggers are calling for counter-demonstrations but the admonition of Siniora and Jumblat to remain at home is working so far.

If it begins to look like civil war is imminent, I expect we’ll see plenty of the March 14th Forces on hand.

The Bush Administration in the past has rightly decried the leaking of classified information from intelligence sources whose motives may or may not have been largely partisan in nature. But the deliberate leak yesterday of a classified analysis of Iraqi’s embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley should be seen in the context of statecraft and not necessarily the typical Washington bureaucratic game of “gotchya” - a difference that may be lost on some but is telling nonetheless.

The audience targeted with this leak is extremely small. In fact, it is an audience of one - the Iraqi Prime Minister. The President will meet with Maliki on Wednesday in Jordan and the timing of this leak will not be lost on the PM nor will the words of Hadley, who makes up for a lack of elegance in language with a series of triphammer verbal blows that questions Maliki’s fitness for the job:

The memo presents an unvarnished portrait of Mr. Maliki and notes that he relies for some of his political support on leaders of more extreme Shiite groups. The five-page document, classified secret, is based in part on a one-on-one meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki on Oct. 30.

“His intentions seem good when he talks with Americans, and sensitive reporting suggests he is trying to stand up to the Shia hierarchy and force positive change,” the memo said of the Iraqi leader. “But the reality on the streets of Baghdad suggests Maliki is either ignorant of what is going on, misrepresenting his intentions, or that his capabilities are not yet sufficient to turn his good intentions into action.”

It has been apparent since June that the situation on the ground was getting beyond Maliki’s control. That’s why in August, CENTCOM proposed the current redeployment of tens of thousands of US troops to Baghdad, a strategy that has not worked, is not working and will not work until Maliki gives the go ahead for the United States army to crush Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Militia and until Maliki’s promises about sending more Iraqi troops to assist the Americans in holding areas cleaned and swept by our forces are realized.

As for al-Sadr, the radical cleric has carved out an independent role for himself and it is becoming clear that he has little interest in cooperating with Maliki in tamping down the violence. Nor does he have any interest in having Shias share power with Sunnis and Kurds - something he has made no secret of from the beginning:

In describing the Oct. 30 meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki, it says: “Maliki reiterated a vision of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish partnership, and in my one-on-one meeting with him, he impressed me as a leader who wanted to be strong but was having difficulty figuring out how to do so.” It said the Iraqi leader’s assurances seemed to have been contradicted by developments on the ground, including the Iraqi government’s approach to the Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia known in Arabic as Jaish al-Mahdi and headed by Moktada al-Sadr.

“Reports of nondelivery of services to Sunni areas, intervention by the prime minister’s office to stop military action against Shia targets and to encourage them against Sunni ones, removal of Iraq’s most effective commanders on a sectarian basis and efforts to ensure Shia majorities in all ministries — when combined with the escalation of Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) killings — all suggest a campaign to consolidate Shia power in Baghdad.”

Needless to say, these actions are 180 degrees in opposition to what the Iraqi government needs to be doing to assure the Sunnis that they will have a place at the table in any Iraqi power sharing arrangement. In effect, Maliki’s actions are fueling the insurgency while he asks more and more of his American allies in helping to snuff it out.

And the aforementioned failure of Maliki to deliver Iraqi troops to the capitol to assist the Americans is just one indication of how tenuous Maliki’s hold on power actually is:

The memo refers to “the current four-brigade gap in Baghdad,” a seeming acknowledgment that there is a substantial shortfall of troops in the Iraqi capital compared with the level needed to provide security there, in part because the Iraqi government has not dispatched all the forces it has promised. An American brigade generally numbers about 3,500 troops, though Iraqi units can be smaller. While Democrats have advocated beginning troop withdrawals as a means of putting pressure on Mr. Maliki, the memo suggests that such tactics may backfire by stirring up opposition against a politically vulnerable leader.

“Pushing Maliki to take these steps without augmenting his capabilities could force him to failure — if the Parliament removes him from office with a majority vote or if action against the Mahdi militia (JAM) causes elements of the Iraqi Security Forces to fracture and leads to major Shia disturbances in southern Iraq,” the memo says.

Not mentioned in the memo is one of the big reasons for that “four-brigade gap:” Iraqi troops refusing to serve in Baghdad by either mutinying against their commanders or going AWOL.

If the Prime Minister cannot even control his own armed forces, how much power does he really have? Couple this weakness with his accommodation of both the Mahdi Militia and the even larger Badr Brigades and it may be time to start asking why we should prop someone up who doesn’t have a leg to stand on in the first place?

Good intentions don’t mean squat. We have heard this empty suit of a Prime Minister talk for more than a year about what needs to be done to curb the insurgency, bring the militias to heel, clean up the rampant corruption in the ministries (where taxpayer monies are being shoveled down a black hole), affect a political settlement that includes a sharing of oil revenues with all parties, and bring the Saddamites who terrorized the Iraqi people for more than a quarter of a century to justice.

He has accomplished none of it. He has barely started most of it. He has, in fact, been an obstacle to achieving many of those goals. He has tried to play both ends against the middle with al-Sadr on one side and the Americans on the other and has satisfied neither and disgusted both. His efforts to reform the Interior Ministry to ferret out the independent death squads and militia members who have infiltrated the Iraqi Police Force have been for naught. And his efforts to unite the country politically have consisted largely of grandiose rhetoric with little in the way of concrete proposals that could be the basis for negotiations with the Sunnis and Kurds.

He gives off no sense of urgency, no realization that the patience of the American people is nearly at an end and that he and his government are in mortal danger of not only becoming irrelevant but also extinct. He continues to try and muddle through. And in the meantime, Iraq bleeds.

But he’s all we’ve got at the moment. So the President will trundle off to Jordan and see if he can impress upon the Iraqi Prime Minister the absolute necessity for him to start acting. The time for pleasantries about uniting Iraq in brotherhood are over. It’s time for the Prime Minister to get on his hind legs and fight: Fight the insurgents. Fight the militias. Fight the crime, the corruption, the sense of utter futility that has infected the population and has caused so many to lose hope.

I am not hopeful that any of Hadley’s prescriptions will help the patient because what he really needs is a spinal transplant. But somebody has to get through to this man or Iraq will continue to devolve until it is a place fit only for gravediggers and gravemakers.

Abe Lincoln used to tell the story about two country boys who were walking in the woods when they came upon a wild hog. Taking an instant dislike to the interlopers, the hog set off after the two kids who ran like hell through the forest, the hog gaining on them, when one boy shimmied up a pine tree to avoid the beast’s lethal tusks. The other lad wasn’t as lucky but managed to grab hold of the hog’s tail and went round and round the pine tree, his friend watching helplessly from above. Finally, the young boy on the ground looked up and called out to his friend, “come on down Bill, and help me leave go of this hog!”

Lincoln told several variations of this anecdote, including the exit line coming from the treed youngster who dryly observed that it was hard to tell from his vantage point who was chasing who. Needless to say, either story serves as a perfect metaphor for any discussion regarding Syria and what the United States can do, must do, or desires to do about engaging that country in efforts to bring some semblance of stability to Iraq, Lebanon, and by extension, the rest of the Middle East.

There is just no easy response to the question of Syria and whether or not to engage her in negotiations. There is little doubt that President Assad could help us in Iraq but at what price? And how much help could he really be?

The most recent bloodletting in the streets of Baghdad calls into question whether negotiations with regional troublemakers Iran and Syria will have the desired effect on the security situation in Iraq. The insurgency and the accompanying sectarian violence is not being directed or controlled from Damascus or Tehran. Those two nations have simply decided to throw gasoline and phosphorus on an already raging fire. Take away the accelerants and you still have the fire - out of control with plenty of kindling and firewood left to feed the conflagration for years to come.

For our part, we’ve got a hold of the tail of the hog and no one is inclined to come down and help us leave go of it, even if anyone had a clue where to begin. Too violent for United Nations peacekeepers and with no NATO member or Arab country willing to see its soldiers die for what they consider an American blunder, the Iraq problem is incredibly resistant to the kind of glib solutions offered by the internationalists and collective security advocates who have made it their business since the war began to admonish the United States for its unilateralist approach.

Which brings us to the “realists” and their apparent eagerness to engage Iran and Syria in dialogue over Iraqi security. I have no doubt that both countries would be open to such negotiations - if for no other reason than all the goodies they may be able to extract from American negotiators who will come hat in hand, begging for help. But as I wrote here, there is another reason the Iranians and Syrians may be willing to cooperate in trying to tamp down the violence in Iraq; neither wishes a failed state on their borders that would be a magnet for Shia terrorists (Syria’s worry) or a boost for Kurdish independence (Iran’s fear).

This is the meat of the realist’s argument; that any government which holds power when we leave Iraq - a process coming sooner rather than later - must be able to contain the raging violence that threatens the stability of the entire region. It is self evident, the realists say, that such a result would be in all three country’s interest. And lest we forget, the majority Shia in Iraq seem disinclined to stop the slaughter of the Sunnis, a fact of this war that seems to have taken on a life all its own with death squads on both sides that answer to no authority save their own warped and twisted desire for revenge. This is a situation that could turn into a genuine tragedy of historic proportions if the United States were to leave precipitously with potentially millions dead unless some kind of political settlement could be brokered that would both satisfy the majority and protect the minority.

How much good could Syria really do in such a chaotic situation and more importantly, what would they want in return for their cooperation? Having met with James Baker (who is rapidly emerging as a leader of the “realists” among Administration advisors), Syria seems “encouraged” by the results of the contact. What could Baker have said that would have piqued the interest of Damascus? Michael Young:

If political “realism” is about interests, then realists must prove that a country that has ignored successive UN resolutions demanding Syrian non-interference in Lebanon could somehow be a force for stability in Iraq, to which it has funnelled hundreds of foreign fighters. Engaging Mr Assad over Iraq will mean the gradual return of Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, since neither the US nor the UK will be in a position to deny Syria in Lebanon while asking favours in Iraq.

If one has no qualms about abandoning a rare democratic success in the Middle East, as Lebanon has been, then by all means talk to the gentlemen in Damascus. But first someone should remind Mr Blair of a name oddly absent from his recent rhetoric of engagement: Rafiq Hariri. To which we can now add another: Pierre Gemayel.

Turning a blind eye to Assad as he crushes freedom in Lebanon as a price for his efforts to stabilize Iraq seems an extraordinarily bad bargain from the US standpoint. First of all, no one will be able to quantify just what Syria might be able to accomplish with its efforts in Iraq (the same goes double for Iran). Secondly, besides it being unbelievably cynical and immoral to allow the Lebanese people to fall under the tender mercies of Assad’s secret police again, such a betrayal would reverberate throughout the Middle East with the forces of reform that are taking the first small steps toward democratic government in places like Kuwait, Yemen, Qatar and some of the other Gulf States. Even Saudi Arabia has taken some baby steps toward more representative government. A betrayal of the Lebanese democrats who we encouraged to put their lives on the line to try and bring democracy to that country would be a slap in the face to reformers all over the Middle East who face similar dangers daily. It would send exactly the wrong message at the wrong time.

If not Lebanon, what then does Assad desire? What Syria has wanted since its 1967 war with Israel; the Golan Heights. Assad would want us to put “pressure” on Israel to negotiate its return.

The idea that American could “pressure” Israel into committing suicide by allowing the Syrians access to that strategic bit of land is ludicrous. Syrian artillery emplacements from 1948-67 regularly bombarded Israeli civilians living in the Huleh Valley, killing dozens and forcing residents to sleep in bomb shelters. It is doubtful whether the Israelis would even consider it, despite the importuning of their desperate American ally.

Blocked by conscience (we hope) from giving away Lebanon and by strategic necessity into pressuring the Israelis to give back the Heights, when one looks closely at our bargaining position with Assad, it appears that there is precious little good we can do for him. And given the state of violence in Iraq, I daresay that there is equally little he can realistically do for us.

We can’t sell him military equipment given that he is still technically at war with Israel. We could offer economic aid but the Syrian economy is such a basket case that in order to truly do some good, it would have to take the form of massive assistance, forgiveness of debt, and cooperation gained from the Europeans to pitch in and help - the prospects for all of which occurring dim to non-existent.

In short, what Assad wants, we cannot give him. And what we want, he cannot deliver.

Does this mean that we shouldn’t open a dialogue with Syria? Emphatically no. The fact is, engaging Syria in talks, however futile they might be in dramatically changing the situation in Iraq, may lead to lifting the veil of isolation around Syria and driving a wedge between the axis of Damascus and Tehran. These two strange bedfellows have found common cause in Lebanon and in bleeding America in Iraq. Outside of that, the two nations are as dissimilar as could be expected when one considers that Syria is ruled by a small clique of secular Alawites and Tehran, a Shia theocracy. If their areas of commonality in Lebanon and Iraq can be taken away, there is a chance that Assad (with the help of some of America’s friends in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia) can be weaned away from the influence of the mullahs and brought back into the community of nations.

A long shot, that. But there’s no chance of it happening unless we start to engage the Syrians in some kind of dialogue on regional issues like Iraq and Lebanon. It is clearly in our interest to do so and I expect that Bush will reluctantly agree.

What that means for the Iraqi people is unknown. But at this point, even grasping at straws is better than the kind of deep seated fatalism infecting the country and where there is no end in sight to the bloody, unspeakable violence that has become an every day fact of life for many in that tragic land.

Even though it’s Thanksgiving, there is so much going on in Lebanon today that I thought I’d gather some news from around the web and from local Lebanese media to update you on what’s happening on this dramatic day.

I will add to this post if necessary as the day goes on.

CROWD AT FUNERAL ESTIMATED IN THE “HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS”

No official estimate yet (Update: Via al-Jazeera, Red Cross reports half a million), but Martyrs Square is still filling up as of 2:00 PM Lebanese time.

Pierre Gemayel’s funeral was underway Thursday at Beirut’s St. George Cathedral as hundreds of thousands of mourners gathered to bid farewell in a show of force against opponents led by Hizbullah and their Syrian backers.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy and Arab League chief Amr Mussa were among the dignitaries attending the 1:00 p.m. funeral service lead by Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir in a rare move.

Prominent Lebanese leaders and ambassadors packed the cathedral as the casket was placed on the altar along with the coffin of his bodyguard, Samir al-Shartouni.

Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hizbullah ally, surprised the mourners by showing up unexpectedly.

The protesters are nothing if not blunt:

Young men stamped on portraits of Lahoud and his Syrian and Iranian counterparts, Bashar Assad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the principal backers of Hizbullah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah.
“Nasrallah, come and see who is the majority” in Lebanon, chanted the crowd.

“We want only the army to bear weapons,” the mourners chanted, referring to Hizbullah’s persistent refusal to lay down its weapons in accordance with U.N. Security Council resolutions following the devastating summer war with Israel.

This should raise the spirits of the democrats. Whether it translates into political muscle remains to be seen.

HIZBULLAH CANCELS MARCHES

Showing that he has more than an ounce of common sense, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah has cancelled street demonstrations planned for Thursday to avoid a confrontation with the hundreds of thousands of angry anti-Syrian Lebanese who will be in the streets paying their last respects to Minister Gemayel.

As I’ve said before, Nasrallah does not want a civil war - not when he is on the verge of getting what he wants without a messy, destructive sectarian conflict. While the atmospherics of the political situation may have changed, the reality is that the Sheik still holds the upper hand - as long as his bully boys have the guns to threaten the government and the population.

Strangely, Nasrallah has blamed Israel for the assassination. Given that Gemayel’s uncle, ex-President Bachir Gemeyal was a huge supporter of Israel during the civil war, it is doubtful too many Lebanese outside of the fanatics who follow him believe Nasrallah. It may prove that the assassination has thrown Nasrallah off his game slightly. Let’s hope the million or so people who flood the streets of Beirut today continue that process.

US-BRITAIN CONDEMN THE ASSASSINATION BUT FAIL TO MENTION SYRIA BY NAME

Both the US and Great Britain have issued strong official statements condemning the assassination and supporting Prime Minister Siniora’s government - except neither one specifically mentioned Syria as the probable perpetrator of the murders. (Bush and Bolton have both fingered Syria and Iran in off the cuff remarks but the State Department nixed any mention of Syria in the official communique.)

This is no accident, of course, Nothing can be said that might derail the coming ass kissing session with Assad as we seek his blessing to withdraw from Iraq without the Syrian President causing the country to descend into chaos in the meantime. Given that the thug has just cold bloodedly murdered a man committed to democracy and freedom and was opposed to the kind of Islamic fundamentalism embodied in Nasrallah’s Hizbullah, our State Department and the British Foreign Office may as well have spit on Pierre Gemayel’s grave.

SYRIA REJECTS TRIBUNAL

Not surprisingly, the Syrian Foreign Minister has announced that if any Syrians are indicted by the International Tribunal, they will not appear. He says that the Syrian justice system is perfectly capable and doesn’t need the assistance of any foreigners.

“Syria is 100 percent innocent from the crime and we don’t need to assure that,” he said, adding “if there were any Syrian who is involved in this crime, then he is a murderer and will be punished as criminals are penalized by the just Syrian judiciary.”

I think I’ll let that quote pass without comment.

LEBANESE GOVERNMENT HOLES UP IN GOVERNMENT BUILDING

In order to avoid the prospect of losing two more ministers which would cause his government to fall, From Beirut to the Beltway is reporting that Prime Minister Siniora has ordered his cabinet to bed down in the government building until the International Tribunal is approved:

After the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, March 14 cannot afford to lose any more ministers. If one more is killed or resigns, the cabinet will lose the quorum required by the constitution. For that, Siniora has reportedly turned the government building into temporary sleeping quarters for the remaining ministers, who will be barred from leaving the building until a session is held to approve the plan, possibly as early as Monday. After the funeral today, and if they all make it back to the Serail safely, it would require blowing up the government headquarters to stop the cabinet session form taking place.

At this point, blowing up the massive government building would be a shocker but not a total surprise. Anything is possible in Lebanon over the next few days.

MIDDLE EAST “EXPERTS” ON THE ASSASSINATION

Tony Badran has a revealing piece on what various Lebanese “experts” are saying about the assassination:

Helena Cobban: Syrians murder Lebanese Christian leader. Conclusion: Lebanese Christians are murderers who may massacre people.

Rami Khoury: Syrians murder Lebanese Christian leader. Conclusion: We must stop this “cycle of violence.”

Juan Cole: Syrians murder Lebanese Christian leader. Conclusion: The evil George Bush wants the Lebanese moderates to crush poor innocent Hezbollah.

Joshua Landis: Syrians murder Lebanese Christian leader. Conclusion: The US should make a concession to Syria to let Hezbollah run Lebanon.

And all agree: Syrians murder Lebanese Christian leader. Conclusion: This proves we should forget about the last time they murdered a Lebanese leader!

That about sums it up.

PICTURE OF THE DAY

Stay safe, kid. Carrying a sign like that in public is serious business in these times.

LIVE AUDIO OF EVENTS

The blog Beirut Spring has a link to an Arabic language broadcast of events in Martyrs Square. The crowd sounds restive with angry undertones. Some Lebanese blogs are reporting that after the funeral, the crowd will march to the Presidential Palace and demand the ouster of President Lahoud.

Even if Lahoud resigned, it wouldn’t solve any of Siniora’s problems. But it would be nice to see the toady kicked out.

BERRI EMERGING AS POSSIBLE KEY FIGURE

A surprise guest at the funeral today was Parliamentary Speaker and leader of the Amal Party Nabbi Berri. Amal is ostensibly allied with Hizbullah and Berri’s show of independence is not only incredibly brave but could be significant. (There is some confusion as to whether or not Hizbullah even bothered to send their own delegation to the funeral.)

Immediately after the cabinet approved the formation of the Tribunal, Berri made a statement that the action was constitutional despite the absence of the Shia ministers who had resigned over the previous weekend. This despite President Lahoud calling it “illegitimate” and Nasrallah referring to it as “illegal.” Berri did an about face when he got back from Iran earlier this week after 2 days of consultations with the mullahs when he called the action “unconstitutional.” But in the same statement, he has called on the Shia ministers to return to the cabinet and for the National Dialogue, which broke down over the issue of Shia representation in the cabinet, to reconvene.

Berri has also hinted that he would indeed convene Parliament to take up the approval of the Tribunal once the cabinet sends the measure along.

This means two things: First, Berri is a marked man now, in Assad’s crosshairs as well as probably some Sunni and Christian groups. Secondly, Berr’s independence could mean that he has tired of Hizbullah’s constant brinkmanship and wishes a political settlement.

If the latter, this could be hugely significant. They have a small representation in Parliament (12 seats out of 128) and Amal is much more secular oriented than Hizbullah. Berri himself is respected in some quarters outside of the Shia community. Does Berri have enough clout to broker some kind of deal? We’ll probably find out next week.

A MOST CURIOUS STORY

This story has been making the rounds of the blogs as well as appearing in Ya Libnan:

Kuwaiti Newspaper Alseyassah has reported that a SANA (Syrian Arab News Agency) editor has contacted a Lebanese pro-Syrian newspaper 55 minutes prior to the assassination of Lebanon’s minister Pierre Gemayel inquiring about details of his murder.

The call took place at 3:05 pm Beirut local time. Alseyassah did not name the Lebanese newspaper to protect its identity.

The Alseyassah added that the Lebanese newspaper was extremely surprised about SANA’s call which prompted the SANA reporter to call 10 minutes later and apologize for the original call.

This kind of story pops up every time there’s a tragedy of some kind. The bombing in Britain, the JFK assassination, even 9/11 have had similar stories reported. A cursory check into the facts however, reveals people are simply mistaken about the time frame. No one is lying. It’s just a symptom of what happens when great events occur.

Would I be surprised if the story were true? Not really. This assassination appeared well planned and the plot could have leaked out prior to its execution.

But I’m doubting it…

UPDATE 1

Check out Jim Hoft’s extensive coverage that includes some pretty dramatic pictures.

The blog Beirut Live has a picture taken from An Nahar’s window that’s extraordinarily impressive (click on the picture for a full screen view) and adds this:

This is our day. Not that of the March 14 coalition, nor that of the March 8 coalition! This is the day when Lebanon shouts to the criminals:

“Enough. Lebanon will not die today, it will not die tomorrow. No bombs or bullets from Israeli, Syrian or Iranian regimes will ever bring us down.”

It is time for all Lebanese, from all religions and all sides to join hands to uphold and save our bleeding Lebanon.

UPDATE II: HARIRI AND JUMBLAT THROW DOWN THE GAUNTLET TO HIZBULLAH

Two fiery speeeches to the hundreds of thousands gathered in Martyrs Square for Minister Gemayel’s funderal from March 14th leaders Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblat made it absolutely clear that the democrats still have a lot of fight left in them:

“They will not nail down our determination for life. They will not nail down our determination to refuse the culture of sorrow and death,” Jumblat told the hundreds of thousands massed in Martyrs Square near St. George Cathedral where the industry minister’s funeral service was held.

“They will not nail down our determination to keep the arms in the hands of the state, and our demands for the truth, justice and the international court,” he said.

He was alluding to the ruling majority’s insistence on an international tribunal to try the February 2005 assassins of five-time premier Rafik Hariri, and to the refusal of Syrian ally Hizbullah to lay down its arms in accordance with U.N. resolutions after its summer war with Israel.

Jumblat said the slain minister joined “the previous martyrs… who had refused … the regime of tutelage, killings and assassinations.”

Hariri told the crowd waving red-and-white Lebanese flags: “You are here for a new revolution to show the entire world that the sons of Rafik Hariri and the brothers of Pierre Gemayel are the majority in Lebanon.”

“They said that you are a virtual majority, but we are the reality and they are virtual.”

“National unity is stronger than their arms … and their terrorism.”

The slain minister’s father, Amine Gemayel then took the podium to call for a new Lebanon, without pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud.

He hailed “the start of the second revolution for the independence of Lebanon, which should start at the top.”

This is a direct challenge to Nasrallah. He will probably answer it next week when he turns out his own bully boys for street demonstrations.

UPDATE III: THE DAY IN PHOTOS

PART OF THE MASSIVE CROWD ESTIMATED AT 500,000 THAT TURNED OUT TO SUPPORT DEMOCRACY AND HONOR PIERRE GEMAYEL

PIERRE’S FATHER AMINE GEMAYEL. HE LOST ANOTHER SON TO AN ASSASSIN AS WELL.

MARCH 14TH PARLIAMENTARY LEADER SAAD HARIRI (CENTER). HE ALSO LOST HIS FATHER RAFIQ TO AN ASSASSINS BULLET. DRUZE LEADER WALID JUMBLAT (FAR LEFT) WHOSE FATHER WAS ASSASSINATED IN 1975 AND LEBANESE FORCES HEAD SAMIR GEAGEAS WHO SPENT 12 YEARS IN PRISON DURING THE OCCUPATION (RIGHT)

VIA ALLAH, HARIRI, GEMAYEL, AND GEAGEAS UNITED IN GRIEF

UPDATE III

Abu Kais from BTHBW has plenty of video.

One thing you notice immediately. These are angry people. These are not the smiling, cheering reform-minded citizens we saw in the spring of 2005. These people seem to want blood and know where to go to get it.

I fear that unless passions cool between now and when Hizbullah takes the to the streets - possibly next week - clashes will be inevitable. Looking at the video, one sees sadness but also a fatalism that is very alarming, almost as if people have resigned themselves to violence.

UPDATE IV

Still with me? Good. This will probably be my last update for the day.

Beirut Spring informs us that Nasrallah never called Amin Gemayel to offer his condlences nor apparently were there any Hizbullah representatives at the funeral (I have been unable to identify a Muslim cleric in an excellent photo montage at Daily Star. He appeared to be in Shia garb.) Instead, Hizbullah media headlines the funeral “The Authorities take to the streets.”

Mustapha also informs us that there appeared to be heavy representation by the Free Patriotic Movement, Michel Aoun’s party who is allied with Hizbullah in Parliament. Given the attendance of Nabih Berri of the other major Hizbullah ally Amal, this would seem to isolate Nasrallah.

It doesn’t matter. He’s got the guns. At this point, he has the fate of Lebanon in his hands. It’s up to him whether their will be civil war or a return to the uneasy peace that existed prior to the cabinet crisis.

The March 14th Forces have called for a massive turnout of their followers for Thursday - the same day that Hizbullah is to take to the streets in their announced effort to overthrow the government - thus setting the stage for what has to be considered the most dramatic confrontation in history between ordinary people and terrorists.

The anti-Syrian camp has called for a massive turnout at the funeral of slain Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel on Thursday.

“The entire world will hear in the next few days the real voice of Lebanon, the voice of freedom, sovereignty and independence,” said former MP Fares Soaid, reading the statement.

“The March 14 forces calls on their followers and friends … to participate massively in the popular burial of the heroic martyr Pierre Gemayel,” it said. They also called for a total shutdown of businesses across Lebanon.

The group said “sadness has turned into anger” after Tuesday’s assassination. “We will go after the criminals and all those who cover this crime … the blood of Pierre Gemayel will not go in vain,” it said.

But “the March 14 forces also call on all their followers … to stay away from any sign of discord which only serves the objectives of the evil criminals,” it added.

Largely middle class, educated, and peaceful, the supporters of March 14th are being asked to take to the streets of Beirut for the funeral of cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel and confront the armed fanatics of Hizbullah who may or may not be trying to occupy the same turf at the same time. If he’s smart, Nasrallah will either call off his planned demonstrations as a sign of respect for the death of a member of one of Lebanon’s most important political families or move the demonstrations to Hizbullah territory in the southern suburbs of the city. This would defeat the purpose of the demonstrations but it is hard to see how he can back down at this point.

But the fact is that Nasrallah may not have a choice. His patron in Syria is desperate to stop the approval of the International Tribunal looking into the Hariri assassinations which just received the final go ahead from the United Nations yesterday. A strong denunciation of the assassination of Gemayel accompanied the resolution authorizing the Tribunal which now heads back to Lebanon for final approval by Siniora’s besieged cabinet. If President Assad has decided that the Tribunal must not go forward under any circumstances (as some have speculated), then it is likely that armed conflict will indeed ensue.

The death of Gemayel has scrambled the political situation and psychologically handed March 14th a powerful weapon. The call for what amounts to a general strike to demonstrate the people’s support for democracy is a brilliant tactical move by Siniora in that it unites the people in opposition to his killers - Syria or their toadies in Lebanon. It also places Nasrallah in the uncomfortable position of having to defend his support for Syria while making his quest for power seem small and petty during this time of crisis. How Nasrallah and Hizbullah behave over the next 24 hours will tell us a lot about whether the Sheik is following his own agenda or whether he is playing a full proxy role for Assad.

To underscore the preparations being made by both sides for armed conflict, here’s a Stratfor analysis:

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut. Lebanon’s Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah’s well-equipped and well-trained military forces. In the meantime, Syria continues to send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, about 2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

And Michael Totten reports that some radical Sunnis won’t take Hizbullah attacks on their co-religionists lying down:

If you think radical Shias are the only dangerous people in Lebanon, think again. From the SITE Institute:

The Mujahideen in Lebanon threaten that the Shi’ites will not have an “entity” in Lebanon, and increasingly warn the Sunni Muslim people that the “zero-hour” is approaching, in a statement issued today, Monday, November 20, 2006. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, is stated to be bearing his evil and gathering killers, and will not greet the Sunni with “flowers,” but with curses. The Mujahideen believe that the Nusayri [aka Alawite - MJT] regime in Syria and Iran is gathering parties around Nasrallah and Hezbollah, and to counter, the Sunnis must be prepared to fight. They warn: “The blood will flow like rivers,” and to the Shi’ites: “Prepare your coffins and dig your graves. The hurricanes of the Mujahideen are coming in Lebanon”.

This sentiment, if I could call it that, does not represent mainstream Sunni opinion in Lebanon. (Mainstream Sunni opinion is more fairly represented by Fouad Seniora and Saad Hariri.) But as recent events in both Lebanon and Iraq show, minority extremist factions can be big enough to start wars by themselves.

Incidentally, those Americans who say they want a civil war against Hezbollah in Lebanon need to realize that these are the kinds of people they’re egging on. The famous “protest babes” are not going to pick up the rifles.

Michael is right about the “protest babes.” But if blood is spilled on Thursday, it will most likely be some of those “protest babes” who get injured or killed so perhaps we shouldn’t be selling them short.

Perhaps a spasm of violence is in the offing followed by some kind of pull back by both sides. Or maybe Nasrallah will surprise us and call off his demonstrations until he has the streets of Beirut all to himself. Either way, he looks like a loser at this point. He has yet to make any kind of statement on the assassination (a statement condemning the assassination was issued in the name of the party) which means either that he is biding his time or weighing his options. Or perhaps both. Expect some definitive word from Nasrallah today.

Meanwhile, the people are already gathering in downtown Beirut for what promises to be the largest demonstration since Hizbullah’s “victory party” last summer. Emotions will run high. And the chances are that the forces represented by March 14 and those supporting Hizbullah will at some point confront each other across the chasm of history and violence.

How that confrontation turns out will determine the immediate future of Lebanon.

UPDATE

Hugh Hewitt compares the assassination of Gemayel with that of Archduke Ferdinand and Victor Davis Hanson agrees:

HH: Is this an Archduke Ferdinand moment with the assassination of Gemayel?

VDH: I think it may be. I really do. I think that Syria realizes that as soon as they saw that the United States was going to cease pressure on them, it was time to go in and start killing non-Shia politicians, reporters especially. They’ve killed journalists, they’ve killed T.V…it’s not just this Gemayel. It’s not just a Christian politician. They’ve been doing this for two years, killing, systematically, any critics. And they sense that they get a green light from us when we pull back. And I think it should be a wake up call for the United States, that when you go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, you don’t go to war in a half measure. You either go to war or you don’t go to war. And we’re in a war in Iraq, and we’re in war with, as the President said, Islamic-facism, and autocracy and dictatorship, and there’s no better examples than Iran and Syria.

There seems to be a consensus emerging among many on the right that leaks from Baker’s Iraq Study Group about some kind of entente with Syria may have emboldened Assad to strike in Lebanon.

First of all, from what we know of the mechanics of the Gemayel assassination, it was meticulously planned and rehearsed. The minister had 4 bodyguards and took enormous precautions to try and insure his safety. The car he was riding in was slammed from behind and 3 gunmen got out and sprayed Gemayel with at least 10 shots, 8 of which hit him. The gunmen then got away.

The bodyguards? I haven’t seen anything yet on whether they flubbed it or whether they may have been complicit in the killing. It seems to me that this was a killing long in planning.

Because of all this, I don’t think that the Iraq Study Group or calls from Dems for dialogue with Syria and Iran had much to do with this assassination. Assad and Nasrallah have their own agendas in Lebanon and I doubt whether much of anything influences them to take an action like this or not. I view it as a continuing effort by Assad to terrorize Lebanese and silence his critics. And if he can influence another two cabinet members into believing that discretion is the better part of valour and gets them to resign out of fear for their personal safety, he achieves his goal of bringing down the Siniora government before the Parliament has a chance to vote on the Tribunal.

Hugh also believes that the assassination may be akin to the Anschluss in the tactics used by Assad. I’ll buy that. The more I look at the situation and the gathering of forces, the more I think it will take a miracle for Siniora and the democrats to survive - literally and as a government. The country is ready to explode - has been ready since the end of the war with Israel. And Assad may have just lit the match.