Right Wing Nut House

Join me today from Noon - 2:00PM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

More after election stuff today. A reall good piece from Tony Blankley and some other thoughts from the folks at NRO.

We’ll also examine the fallout from Rummy’s exit.

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You can see from the headline how cocksure I am of my new-found freedom of action.

Truth is, for months I have swallowed many of my misgivings about this President, the party, and even conservatives in general. I did so for rather cowardly reasons. Part of it was to protect my ego (no one likes being called vile names by those whose support and approval are sought) while another reason was almost certainly the desire not to give any of my lefty friends unnecessary ammunition to use against conservatives who don’t agree with me.

Another even more cowardly reason for my reticence has been a fear that my criticisms would distance me from the rest of the conservative blogosphere. This, perhaps the most unforgivable transgression in that it involves not being true to my inner muse as well as betraying the trust of my readers, all for the sake of giving into my fears of losing much of what I have worked for these past two years. This has caused me much discomfort, at times leaving a queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach. And while I never lied, I pulled my punches on many of my criticisms of Iraq, the President, and other conservative personalities and issues.

No more.

All this may come as a surprise to my regular readers who are used to me bashing Republicans and the President. But the fact is, I was taking it easy on the bastards. More than one post over the past year has fallen victim to the “delete” button on my blog because I realized that my intemperate and bitter remarks about something Bush or the Republicans were doing would cause many of my long time readers (and other bloggers) to tip toe away, unable or unwilling to face the consequences of the failed policies in Iraq, the fiscal irresponsibility, the unbelievable dereliction of duty in adequately protecting our borders, our ports, our airlines, our chemical and nuclear plants, and other targets more than 5 years after the worst terrorist attack in our history.

There has been a failure of leadership too. I have pointed out on more than one occasion that this President has failed in his basic duty as a wartime President. He preferred to try and fight this war on the cheap - not raising taxes to pay for it, not abandoning some of his cherished domestic agenda, not calling upon Americans to support our efforts in any coherent or consistent manner. Is it any wonder that support for the war is so low when the Commander in Chief has allowed his political and ideological opponents an open field to define the reasons we went to war, to substitute evil intent for noble goals, and to posit the most calumnious, outrageously stupid conspiracy theories about why we fight and what we are fighting for?

I don’t blame the press for the lack of support for the war among the people. I don’t blame bad luck or the exigencies of war. I don’t blame Clinton holdovers at State, or the intelligence community, or at the Department of Defense. Other Presidents have learned to overcome or deal with the press and the backstabbing bureaucracies in Washington that have, after all, been operating in this manner for generations. I blame the President and his team. Bush has the biggest megaphone in the history of civilized man; the American Presidential bully pulpit. Every word he utters is listened to around the world. Every thought he imparts is dissected, analyzed, re-dissected and then analyzed further by friend and foe alike.

He has wasted this precious resource. His defense of the war and his policies (what defense is possible) has been marked by an inconsistency bordering on negligence. He has left this vital chore to surrogates like Tony Blair, John Howard, his Vice President and other cabinet officials while his own efforts have been haphazard and marked by long periods of almost total silence. Only the President of the United States can command the attention of the American people when he asks for it. No underling, no matter how articulate or passionate, is a substitute for a President demanding that the press carry his words. Ronald Reagan understood this. Bill Clinton even understood the uses of the bully pulpit. Bush treats it as another prop in the White House PR effort, to be used when he and his political handlers feel that it was time to bring the war front and center again.

We have seen this constantly since the 2004 election. Every once and a while, the President would embark on a highly publicized 10 day or 2 week “campaign” to raise the visibility of the war and highlight his policies. It failed miserably. While his ringing defense of the rationale for war and what we are trying to accomplish was always well thought out and fairly well delivered, the words disappeared into the cacophony of background noise that makes up the American media environment. Too little, too late, and in the end, people simply stopped listening.

The opposing narrative of the war, formed and disseminated by his enemies while the President was off doing something else, dominated the national discussion on Iraq until the President’s silence coupled with his Administration’s continuing inability to accept responsibility for mistakes and an almost pathological attempt to gloss over problems by highlighting only the positive, widened the credibility gap between what was actually happening in Iraq and what his Administration spokespeople were saying. While truth may be the first casualty of war (FDR vastly underreported the damage to our fleet at Pearl Harbor), playing public relations games while Iraqis are slaughtering each other to the tune of 20,000 dead since February does not inspire confidence that anything the Administration says about Iraq has any basis in reality.

Credibility lost, policies that have failed, strategies implemented that have not dampened the enthusiasm of Iraqis to murder each other, an insurgency that refuses to either shrink in numbers or lessen the ferocity of their attacks on Americans and Iraqis - welcome to the Presidency of George W. Bush. Yes things go south during wartime on occasion. But when the arrow of progress has been pointing down for so long and we look to the future and see only more of the same, one begins to wonder when any upturn in our fortunes will be possible.

Do I sound bitter and betrayed? You betchya. I still believe that going to war in Iraq was the right course of action, the next logical step in the War on Terror. Those who point to how things have turned out as “proof” that it was an incorrect or immoral decision are idiots. That is pure Monday morning quarterbacking and I’m having none of it. My concern is whether there is anything that can realistically be done to turn things around at this point and, more importantly, whether there is any fight left in this Administration to stand behind their original decision to go to war and bring self government to the Middle East. If both questions are answered in the negative then for God’s sake tell Prime Minister Maliki to take a flying leap and start pulling our people out of there - not according to any artificial timetable but the same way they came in; fast and with purposeful intent.

No more rosy pronouncements about illusory “progress.” No more ass covering by generals and Pentagon policy wonks whose responsibility for where we are in Iraq will be carefully documented by historians and on display for future generations to criticize. No more using the lives of our troops in a futile effort to prop up a government that can’t decide whether to support the American presence or to prance and preen before the Iraqi people, demonstrating their “independence” from our occupation.

The firing of Rumsfeld is a harbinger.The President stood before the American people less than two weeks ago and assured us that the Secretary of Defense would be there when he left office. How can we now believe him when he says that he is committed to further efforts to bring about a tolerable conclusion to our mission in Iraq? And if he lacks this committment, will he live up to another statement he made about quitting Iraq if he thought there was no hope of “victory?” For if he has already decided to leave Iraq short of any outcome that could be considered advantageous to American interests, then every day that passes, every life lost, is a wasted effort in a losing cause and he should bring our people home now.

I don’t subscribe to this President being the worst or most incompetent in history. Those who make such political judgements have never heard of Millard Fillmore or James Buchanan or Ulysses Grant, or any of a half dozen other fools who occupied the White House. Bush isn’t even the worst since World War II - not as long as the chapter on Jimmy Carter’s presidency remains in the history books. But Bush has certainly demonstrated incompetence on Iraq and has failed miserably in other areas of Presidential leadership. For that, history will not remember him well.

From here on out, gentle readers, I will call ‘em as I see ‘em. Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead! I will not hesitate to take on anyone and everyone. If you disagree, fine. That’s what the damn comments section is for. But there will be no more trimming here at The House.

The question uppermost in my mind is…

WHY IN GOD’S NAME DIDN’T YOU DO IT BEFORE THE ELECTION!

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stepped down as defense secretary on Wednesday, one day after midterm elections in which opposition to the war in Iraq contributed to heavy Republican losses.

President Bush said he would nominate Robert Gates, a former CIA director, to replace Rumsfeld at the Pentagon. The three were expected to appear in the Oval Office at 3:30 p.m. ET, according to NBC News.

Asked whether his announcement signaled a new direction in the war that has claimed the lives of more than 2,800 U.S. troops, Bush said, “Well, there’s certainly going to be new leadership at the Pentagon.”

Bush lavished praise on Rumsfeld, who has spent six stormy years at his post. The president disclosed he met with Gates last Sunday, two days before the elections in which Democrats swept control of the House and possibly the Senate.

Was it out and out hubris that kept the President from firing Rumsfeld before the election? Wouldn’t firing him have signaled a “change in course” and knocked the chocks from underneath the Democratic critique of “stay the course?” Did the President’s stubbornness and overweening pride prevent him from appearing to give in to his political opponents before an election?

I may be very tired and not reading this correctly but what this says to me is that Bush cared more about his personal standing than he did the party. The fact that he said a week ago that Rumsfeld would be his Secretary of Defense till the end of his term probably played a role in waiting until after the election. But firing Rumsfeld now rather than last week (or last month for that matter) just doesn’t make any sense to me.

No doubt Rumsfeld was popular among many conservatives for his disdain of the media and his leadership during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But when it came to winning the peace, especially in Iraq, there is little doubt that his policies were a disaster. One need only look at Iraq today to confirm that analysis. If he was doing such a bang up job (as many of my readers will let me know in the comments), why isn’t Iraq farther along the road to taking care of itself? Why is much of the country in absolute chaos? Why is the Iraqi army a joke with only 10 battle ready battalions according to his own Pentagon?

One could go on and on asking questions about the disastrous decisions Rumsfeld has made in the three plus years of this war. But it was his relentless, upbeat, assessments of “progress” in Iraq that called into question the man’s ultimate fitness for the office. Admitting no mistakes. Allowing for no bad news. The constant “glass is half full” press briefings got so wearing that I simply stopped watching and listening when he came on.

I am not calling into question his integrity. I am criticizing his competence. And given the situation in Iraq and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, his failures are there for the whole world to see.

Gates, a CIA vet and card carrying member of the military industrial complex (a joke my friends. He’s a Washington defense/foreign policy insider) is a fair choice but I would have preferred a Sam Nunn or some other old, wise man who could have ridden herd on both the Generals and the bureaucracy by virtue of their reputation. And naming a Democrat would not have been a bad move by the President following the election results yesterday.

We’ll see. In the meantime, Iraq continues to bleed. Our soldiers continue to die. And whatever would constitute a “victory” in Iraq seems to be slipping away.

Join me today from Noon - 2:00PM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Today we’ll talk about the Bears-Giants game this Sunday…

Okay, okay - I’m kidding. But my Beloved’s killer defense would be a good metaphor for what happened to the GOP last night: We got stomped. Is the GOP coalition that swept to victory in 1994 dead? Were there any bright spots? Anyone?

Join me at noon today for what promises to be a fascinating show. At around 12:30 central I’ll have National Political Correspondent for The American Thinker Richard Baehr on to sort it all out and tell us what it all means.

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Years of living in Chicago with a baseball team like the Chicago Cubs has given me the gift of eternal hope. When spring rolls around, the entire city with one voice breathes the words “This could be the year.” And even when it isn’t, we know that there will always be another spring, another chance to make good the promise that springtime brings.

Two years is not that long to wait for renewal. It should start now with some hard and brutal introspection by GOP leaders and an acknowledgement of their total and complete failure - failure as public servants and as honorable men and women. And that introspection should extend to us, the rank and file. What are we asking of the party? More importantly, what are we asking of government?

Tough days ahead. But we’ll be all the better for it if we learn the right lessons and apply the right prescriptions for change. That’s what adults do about defeat. Not whine about “stolen elections” or “rigged machines.” Let’s take our medicine and participate in the birth of a better, more responsible, more responsive Republican party.

And that new party will not look much like the old one - or at least it shouldn’t. If we try to refashion the old majority, we will continue to lose or, in a best case scenario, win enough seats to be in a majority but not enough to enact the kinds of legislation (and start repealing others) that would bring true conservative governance to Washington.

If there is one thing exit polls are good for, it is breaking down the vote by age, income, religion, ideology, and other important indices. Here’s the bad news from exit polls taken for House races nationwide:

* Republicans saw their advantage with white men diminish from 62-37 in 2004 to 53-45 Their advantage with white women dropped from 55-44 in 2004 to a 49-49 tie. For the first time in memory, Republicans lost American males to the Democrats 51-47 compared to 55-44 advantage in 2004.

* In 2004, Bush lost the 18-29 age group but won in the 30-44, 45-59, and 60 and older. No age group voted in the majority for the GOP in 2006.

* The GOP has lost the middle class. In 2004, all income brackets above $50,000 voted in the majority for the GOP (those making $30-50,000 split their vote evenly). In 2006, only those making more than $100,000 and above voted Republican.

* In 2004, Republicans garnered majorities in all education groups except high school graduates and Post Doc grads. In 2006, the GOP failed to win any education group.

* Bush barely lost Independents to Kerry 49-48 in 2004. In 2006, indies went Dem 57-39.

* For the first time since 1976, the Republicans lost the Catholic vote 55-44. GOP won the Catholic vote 52-47 in 2004.

* The GOP lost 2/3 of the unmarried vote. Given that this demographic is growing and is now bigger than married couples, that is a huge stumbling block to majority status.

(Here’s a link to the 2004 exit polls and the 2006 exit polls.)

I could go on and on. The fact of the matter is that the GOP majority, cobbled together after the Reagan majority fell apart, was never really a true ideological coalition. That Reagan coalition had anti-communism as a powerful glue that held northeastern urban ethnics, blue collar rust belters, “Boll Weevil” Democrats, and Main Street Republicans together through good times and bad. The ex-Republican majority, made up of evangelical Christians and other social conservatives as well as a pastiche of libertarians, hawks, anti-immigration advocates, and fiscal conservatives had no ideological coherence. It was bound to crack when things went south.

In a large way, what was holding this coalition together was support for the President. But once Bush proved himself a weak sister on fiscal restraint, immigration, and even the war, there was nothing to keep the majority together except blind loyalty to Bush and the Presidency. And enough conservatives (20%) actually got so disgusted with the President and the GOP that they crossed over and voted Democratic.

We can’t just abandon Bush - not when the Democrats are sharpening their knives to come after him, the Presidency, the war, tax cuts, and the entire conservative agenda. The opposition to the President will be relentless as will the investigations into Iraq, war reconstruction, internal security, Katrina, energy policy, and anything else that strikes the fancy of a Democratic Committee or Sub-Committee chairman. Some of those investigations will no doubt reveal shocking waste, fraud, and abuse. Criminal charges will be forthcoming. Impeachment, demanded by the netnuts from day one, will almost certainly be on the table. And there will be much witch hunting as well as fishing expeditions into White House activities.

But Bush himself is going to have to change his way of governance if he is going to survive the next two years. I hold out little hope that he will do so. Already he is talking about reviving his flawed “guest worker” initiative, thinking he can pass it now that he has a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate. And I believe that he will take the “out” offered by the Iraq Study Group (Baker Commission) to leave Iraq before the job is done. If he does these things and if he continues to preside over the fiscal mess we find ourselves in, he will score no points with Democrats and lose the rest of his base, leaving him dangling, twisting slowly, slowly in the wind as the Democrats flay what’s left of his presidency to shreds.

There is much serious thought to be given to where the party is today and where it should be headed in the future. I anticipate that conservative blogs will play a role in redefining the party and refashioning a viable, coherent coalition that will bring the GOP back from the depths we are in today. There will be clashes of ideas. There will probably be a certain amount of fingerpointing. But blogs will be able to cull and synthesize the blizzard of ideas that will bubble up from the grass roots and present them for discussion to those who lead the party. And with any number of candidates for President waiting in the wings, many of these ideas have a real shot at being incorporated into a winning strategy that would bring the GOP victory in 2008.

We are standing on the crest of a bluff overlooking a vast undiscovered country of ideas and solutions. Let’s hope that we have the courage and the will to seize the opportunity and conquer that country for our party, ourselves, and our country.

I feel an overwhelming urge to apologize this morning.

That’s because I harbored fears that if the Democrats took control of one or both Houses of Congress that the left would erupt with a string of bloodcurdling threats and juvenile “I told you so’s” which would sour the post-election atmosphere and contribute to partisan warfare.

I am so glad my fears were unfounded…mostly:

Suck it, Reich Wingers!! Cos now that means we’ll have some real honest-to-god oversight in Washington. Subpoena powers! Go, John Conyers!! Give em hell!!

In case you missed the significance of John Conyers being cheered on, the ultra liberal conspiracy mongering Congressman from Michigan will begin hearings leading the impeachment of President Bush in January.

Oh he won’t call them “impeachment” hearings. That would be breaking his promise to Republicans and the American people not to hold those kind of hearings. He will call them something like “Hearings to Determine How Much Money Was Made By Bush And Cheney When They Started The War In Iraq To Enrich Their Friends At Haliburton.”

Or perhaps he will call them “Hearings on the President’s Role In The 9/11 Attacks.” That one sounds sexier.

Nancy Pelosi sure sounded all sweet and grandmotherly, didn’t she?

“Tonight is a great victory for the American people,” said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, who is poised to become the first female speaker of the House. “The American people voted for a new direction.”

She vowed “civility and bipartisanship” but confronted the president over his Iraq policy: “Mr. President, we need a new direction in Iraq.”

That kind of “bi-partisan” feeling was on display here:

YOU LOSE, JERKS!! YOU LIGGITY, LIGGITY, LIGGITY LOOOOOOOOOSE!! L-O-S-E, LOSE, LOSE, LOSE! L-O-S-E, LOSE, LOSE, LOSE!!

And here:

Our Depression-era grandparents could have told us this was coming. After all, the GOP has driven us into precisely the same ditch it ran them into in 1929, fueled by the same ignorance and graft, flaunting the same blatant disregard for any sense of the common good, pillaging our vast accumulated social capital for its members’ own private enrichment. Now that the devastating results are coming clear to all but that last deluded 30%, we need to make the words “conservative” and “Republican” forever synonymous with this mess.

We need to teach it in our history classes, and tell the tales to our own grandchildren. This, children, is what happens when you abandon liberalism. This is what’s happened every damned time we’ve ever handed conservatives the keys and let them drive. Don’t let them kid you. It’s not about two different views of democracy; it’s about whether your democracy lives or dies.

Uh…don’t worry Davey. When the time comes, all of us conservatives will march meekly and in a nice, neat line to the re-education camps and gas chambers. Just don’t tell us they’re “showers.” That’s been done before.

Or if you’re lucky, maybe some real attractive authoritarian figure (you know how much we conservatives adore authoritarian figures) will come along and fill our glasses with Kool Aid (the real stuff) and conservatives will happily drink so that we can all go to heaven, sing songs, and play with Jesus.

All defeats have silver linings. But I think this moonbat (or “Moonchild”) might be a wee bit too relieved for her own good:

That’s right. Something extraordinary happened tonight. A nation voted and decisively halted the Fascist juggernaut in tracks.

We will never know just how close we were to ruin thanks to you Kos, to DailyKos, to the netroots, to the grassroots, to Democrats, and to Americans.

But stopping an authoritarian machine in its tracks is just one battle in the long struggle we face ahead.

Sieg Heil, baby. Just don’t mess with my Hitler doll or I’ll brain ya.

And let’s make sure we promote unity across the nation this election night. Sectionalism has no place in America, right? RIGHT?

What we talked about earlier this week is holding up: the Old Confederacy is the big loser tonight, relegated to the minority in the House. There is no reason, none, nada, zilch, to allow legislation in the House to be held hostage to Southern authoritarian Theocrats and racists anymore. Buh-bye.

Does this mean I can’t fly “The Stars and Bars” on Jefferson Davis’ birthday?

To my fellow conservatives, I say fear not. First of all, most of these brand spanking new Democratic Congressmen are not wine and Brie cheese liberals. Most of them - the overwhelming majority of them - are actual moderates who espouse some conservative positions. Many hold conservative values. They are the future of the Democratic party - not the idiots, the drunkards, the insufferable louts who populate the liberal blogosphere and much of Congress.

Secondly, many of the seats the GOP lost tonight are still in very red territory. If the Republicans can go out and do what the Democrats did this time - recruit outstanding, 1st tier candidates to challenge these extremely vulnerable newcomers, a switch of 20 seats in 2008 would be very doable.

Two years will pass before you know it. Let’s make the best of the time to reform the party and renew our commitment to core conservative principles.

All times central. Scroll down for latest posts.

5:45 PM - Richard Baehr of The American Thinker starts us off (via email):

First Senate exit polls.

Remember these are usually off by at least 5 points in most cases, more early in day.

This tells me Missouri is probably OK, and Montana, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia will be close (virginia closest). Pa. and Ohio gone (no surprise). In 2004, first exit poll showed Kerry up 18% in Pennsylvania, and he won state by 2%. If these were actually accurate, then we need to win Missouri to get to 50-50.

Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)

Republicans leading:

Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)

Also: Exit polls do not include any absentee or early voting, in which GOP tends to lead. National review says add 7 in each case, not 5. No way of knowing. Dangers of exit polling.

6:00 PM - How about a splash of cold water to start off the night? Allah reports:

Fox is reporting that Hastert’s office has warned House Republicans to expect losses of up to 30 seats

EARLY RETURNS IN IN/KY:

Souder and Chocola (IN) ahead. Hostettler (IN) getting creamed. Nothup (KY) and Sodrel(IN) close.

6:30 PM - Polls close in Ohio except 16 polling places in Cayauga County (Cleveland) that will stay open 90 minutes due to problems voting earlier in the day. This is legitimate so no grumbling please.

Souder, Chocola, Sodrel in the lead. Nothup down a couple of hundred votes. Hostettler is heading for the big Hoosier Dome in the sky.

Allen (VA) ahead in early voting. That will tighten considerably.

The Corner reporting that Steele camp worried about low turnout in Prince Georges County - Washington suburb and a place where a lot of blacks were expected to crossover for him.

QUESTION: If the exit polls are off dramatically and the Dems still win, will they try and convince people that Republicans hacked the voting machines but didn’t steal enough votes to win?

6:45 - Here are the Exit Polls posted by CNN - for what its worth.

Pollster.Com is liveblogging the election. Lots of numbers. Good analysis. Too close to call everywhere.

With about 75% of precincts reporting, Anne Nothup is down about 2,00 votes.

Chocola (IN) down 59-41. Don’t panic. Donnelly’s huge surge had to be results coming in from South Bend and Mishawaka - heavily Dem strongholds. Chocola will come back when results from other Rep urban centers come in.

7:00 PM - Ellsworth called in Hostettler race. Dems need 14 for control.

Allen - Webb in virtual dead heat with 25% of precincts reporting. And there it will stay for the rest of the night.

Bass (NH) could be next Republican to be unseated. He’s down big with 25% of the vote counted.

7:15 PM - CNN has a neat page to follow results. I’m going to be using it more as the night goes on because the crawl on Fox News is so damn slow.

Jim Hoft reports turnout extremely high in Missouri. Fox News said earlier that turnout in Montana was “ridiculously” high.

Michael Barone has some very bad news. Chocola is running way, way behind his totals from St. Joseph County (South Bend) and also running worse in two other counties he carried 2 years ago. Prediction: Chocola is toast.

7:30 PM - CBS has called PA for Casey and Ohio for Brown. It’s going to be a long night.

Pollster.Com:

Ok, here’s another one. Extrapolate from the vote by gender tabulation now available on CNN and you get a 16 point lead for Democrat Bob Casey (58% to 42%). CBS has apparently called both Pennsylvania and Ohio for the Democrats, although the other networks I’ve been monitoring have not. This should tell us something important: The analysts are being very cautious about calling the result on exit polls alone. And these are states with candidates with double digit leads in the estimates applied to the CNN crosstabulations. For the states with closer margins, those exit polls aren’t telling us much.

Fox calls Menendez in NJ.

7:45 PM - How about a little good news? Mac Collins in GA 8 is in a dead heat with Dem incumbent Jim Marshall with about 20% counted.

Looks like an uphill battle for Anne Nothup in KY. She’s down about 3,000 votes with 88% reporting.

Hey! “Foley” (Joe Negron) is ahead in Florida with 25% of the vote counted.

8:00 PM - Here’s where we stand…

Senate - +2 Dems
House - +1 Dems

IN - Hostettler gone. Chocola coming back but still trailing by 4. Sodrel locked in tight race.

KY - Nothup almost out of votes and trailing by about 3,000.

NC - Charlie Taylor trailing slightly to Heath Schuler.

NH - Bass coming back but still behind

TN - Corker looks solid. Will be called in the next half hour.

CT- Lieberman ahead by 5

VA - Allen still slightly ahead

Taking a dinner break - back at 8:30.

FOX CALLS MD FOR CARDIN! WITH THREE FRICKING PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN? OH WELL, IT’S THEIR ASS…

And that sound you just heard? That was the collective thud of the netnuts as their heads hit the floor after hearing the news that Fox has called CT for Lieberman.

CHOCOLA OUT IN INDIANA. NOTHUP IN KY. DEMS NOW +3 IN THE HOUSE.

LINCOLN CHAFFEE WILL NOT HAVE TO PRETEND TO BE A REPUBLICAN ANYMORE. IT’S WHITEHOUSE IN RHODE ISLAND. DEMS +3 IN THE SENATE.

Not looking good for the House at this point. Charlie Taylor in NC appears to be going down to defeat. And The Corner is reporting that Rep Jeb Bradley in NH may be in trouble with an anti-war candidate. Bradley wasn’t even considered in danger.

8:45 pm - Pollster.Com:

Gary Kilbride has a very good catch in the comments. The Missouri exit poll is up on CNN. Those who decided in the last three days (who were 10% of all voters) went for McCaskill 57% to 38%. Earlier decideds split nearly evenly with 50% for McCaskill, 49% for Talent. The overall margin in the tabulation is far, far too close to tell us who will win, but given how close the pre-election poll looked, a late break if real would be decisive for McCaskill.

This is in line what these fellows had been saying for the last 48 hours - that there was a slight Dem surge in the last 48 hours and the Rep surge stopped on Sat-Sun.

INTERESTING AND POSSIBLY GREAT NEWS: THE TWO COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS IN GEORGIA WHERE THE GOP HAD A CHANCE TO UNSEAT DEMS ARE BOTH LOOKING VERY GOOD. MAX BURNS IS WINNING HANDILY, UP 12 WITH 40% REPORTING WHILE COLLINS AND MARSHALL ARE IN A DEAD HEAT IN GA 8.

Weldon in PA looks like he’s going down to defeat. Trailing by 12 with 45% of the vote counted.

9:00 PM - Allen maintaining 30,000 vote lead with 84% reporting. Talent maintaining slim lead with 12% reporting.

NANCY JOHNSON OF CT GOES DOWN. FIRST OF PERHAPS 3 CT GOP’ERS. DEMS +4.

Where we stand at 9:00 central:

IN - Sodrel hanging in there but running out of votes and still trailing.

OH - Pryce locked in death struggle is dead even. Ney’s revenge in OH 18 will be a Dem win. Padgett is way down.

NH - Bass is toast. Bradley still trails by 500 votes.

FL - “Foley” close. Buchanan wins. Clay Shaw in big trouble.

Weldon out. Sodrel out. Dems +6. Jesus. And New York isn’t even in yet.

9:15 PM - Sherwood bites the dust. Dems +7.

I want to get mad at all the Pollyannas who were telling me I was an idiot for talking about the Republicans losing the House. But I’ve come to realize that writing everyday and exposing yourself to criticism is part of the game. Instead, I’ll do the mature, adult, thing and just stick out my tongue and go NYAH, NYAH, NYAH.

Getting incredibly tired. Been up since 2:00 AM this morning.

It’s already a foregone conclusion that the Republicans will lose the House. And it looks like they’ll hang on to the Senate. The only question is the margin of victory for the Dems.

I think what we’re seeing is the reason the Karl Rove strategy is limited. The GOP is going to get slaughtered in blue states tonight because GOTV only takes you so far, especially when the other side has a stronger operation than you do. This happened in New York, CT, NH, PA, NJ, and probably OH. It works well in statewide races like Senator, Governor, or for the electoral college. But it spells trouble for House members.

When all is said and done, it looks like the Republicans will lose perhaps 22 seats - more if things go south out west. I’ll have more on this tommorrow but for now, must get sleep.

I’ll be liveblogging results along with every other blogger in Christendom. But rather than have you, my beloved readers, troll through the internet looking for different insights, I will do that for you.

I will be keeping an eye on a few blogs:

Hot Air - Allah always has the best roundups
Captains Quarters - Ed and a few others are in DC blogging for CNN
Wizbang - Alex McClure et al are some of the best on the web.
Polipundit - He’s still a great analyst even without the old gang.
Kim Priestap - Kim is smart, savvy, and sexy. ‘Nuff said.
Pollster.com - They should have some interesting info on exit polls.

Coverage here will start at 6:00PM central time with updates every half hour or so.

If there’s a site you want me to keep an eye on, let me know and I’ll add it to the list.

Join me today from Noon - 2:00PM Central Time for The Rick Moran Show on Wideawakes Radio.

Join me at noon central today for a look at what’s going on around the country on this election day. I hope to have reports from my fellow WAR radio hosts as they give us the lay of the land from where they live. We’ll also look at the races I think the GOP needs to win in order to keep control of the House.

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NOTE: Tune in to The Rick Moran Show live at noon central for a discussion of this post along with reports from other WAR radio hosts about what’s going on in their part of the country. Access the stream by clicking on the “Listen Live” button in the left sidebar.

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Almost every major political analyst, both Republican and Democratic, is predicting a Democratic takeover of the House as a result of the election today.

A sample (+15 Dem needed for Democratic control):

Stuart Rothenberg (D): +30-36 seats Dem
Larry Sabato (D): +29 seats Dem
Charlie Cook (D): +20-35 seats Dem
Evans-Novak (R): +19 seats Dem
Richard Baehr (R) - The American Thinker: +15-20 Dems
Blogging Ceasar (R): +25 seats Dem

My own projection is for a Democratic gain of at least 18 but not more than 23 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate. I base this estimate largely on the work of others but have added a few wrinkles of my own including weighting races according to the winning percentage of Bush in the district (more than 54% gives the Republican a 5 point edge), the incumbency factor (a candidate running for a third term or better garners 2 extra points in the polls), and another 2 points for a GOTV advantage (which is well in line with the numbers here).

In short, any GOP candidate within 9 or 10 points could pull out a victory given the right circumstances.

While the Iraq War has played a major role in this campaign, the fact is that the GOP started out this race basically 4 seats down. Scandals and malfeasance in dead red reliably Republican districts made this election and uphill climb from the beginning for the GOP. Couple that fact with numerous open seats where the GOP failed to recruit 1st tier candidates to run against superior Democratic challengers and you had a disaster in the making almost before the election had gotten underway.

Is all hope lost for GOP retention of the House? One fairly reliable barometer in the past, Tradesports.Com is trading GOP chances to retain control of the House below 20 this morning. And that contract has been dropping like a rock for the last week despite the polling news over the weekend about a narrowing of the generic ballot race.

Nevertheless, here a a couple of things to cling to if it is hope you are looking for:

1. House polls are usually incredibly inaccurate.
2, All of the analysts above point to some kind of a GOP surge over the last week.
3. The unknown impact of the Kerry “joke” on tight races (The Pew Poll suggests a larger than expected impact nationwide. How that plays out locally is a hard to gauge.)
4. Absentee and early voting suggesting some surprises today.

Not much to cheer about, I’m afraid. The only piece of good news I can give is that I think Democrats are nippin’ at the Kool Aid if they think that there’s some kind of “wave” that will bring them 30 or 40 seats. If there was such a wave it has dissipated as a result of both the Kerry joke and reluctant Republicans finally deciding over the last week to hold their noses, go the the polls, and vote for the GOP.

Notwithstanding all of this, I believe there is sliver of a chance for the GOP to maintain House control. Here are 13 House races to watch tonight. In order for the GOP to maintain control of the lower house, they will have to win all 13 of these seats (or pray for some major upsets elsewhere).

These are 13 races universally considered almost certain Dem pick-ups or toss-ups. If the Republicans can take all 13, they could limit their losses to 12-14 seats and thus, keep control of the House. If they lose more than 1 or 2, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House next January.

I chose these 13 seats based on their winnability for the GOP (see methodology above). But I must tell you that this scenario has less than a 1 in 5 chance of playing out successfully. I believe it much more likely that the GOP wins 4-9 of these seats with an outside chance at 10.

1. OHIO 18

Joy Padgett is running a good race in the District Bob Ney disgraced with his guilty plea associated with the Abramoff scandal. Strong Dem challenger Zack Space has a huge lead in the polls but given this is a very red district (Bush 57% in 2004) and some late help from the RNC, local newspapers believe Padgett is closing.

2. New York 20

Incumbent John Sweeney had been locked in a tight race with Dem challenger Kirsten Giillibrand when late last week, a police report was released from December, 2005 that purported to show a domestic violence incident. Sweeney and his wife appeared together to say that the way the report was spun was untrue. They gave the State Police permission to release the entire report but the damage had already been done. Even in this red district (Bush 54%) Sweeney is a likely goner. Incumbency and GOTV efforts may save him but it is a longshot.

3. TX 22

Tom DeLay’s seat requires GOP voters to write in the name of Shelley Sekula-Gibbs - not once but twice. That’s because there are two races on the ballot; one to fill out the unexpired DeLay term and one for the next Congress.

The fact that Bush received 64% of the vote in this district means that a helluva lot more Republicans than Democrats are going to be showing up at the polls today. Whether most of them can write in her name is the big question mark. National party has sunk about $1.3 million into this race to educate people how to vote. They may just pull it off.

Expect this one to go on for weeks as Dems challenge ballots where Sekula-Gibbs name is misspelled, or reversed, or there’s no hyphen, or…(fill in the blank).

NOTE: Thanks to a commenter, I’m told that voters only have to write in Sekula-Gibbs name once. She is on the ballot to fill out the remainder of DeLay’s term.

4. Florida 16

Tom Foley’s old seat has also been the object of the national party’s largess. That’s because Foley is still on the ballot. Another million bucks spent here to educate voters that a vote for Foley is actually a vote for his GOP replacement Joe Negron. GOP helped here by lackluster Dem challenger Tim Mahoney and expected strong GOTV effort in a district Bush got 54% of the vote.

5. North Carolina 11

Eight termer Charlie Taylor is in the fight of his political life with former pro quarterback Heath Shuler. The 11th is sandy soil, scrub pine country and Shuler has run a good race in the largely rural areas. These are fiercely independent folks who regularly elect Democrats (despite the fact that Bush got 57% of the vote). Taylor has a history of closing strong and this could be one of the few GOP bright spots tonight.

6. Indiana 2

This is the first of 3 Indiana districts that are in play today. In this reddest of red states, why these three are in trouble shows not only how well the Democrats have done in recruiting candidates in marginally competitive races for them but also GOP vulnerabilities among their base supporters.

Republican Chris Chocola is going for a third term against a strong Dem challenger Joe Donnelly. After winning by a landslide in 2004, Chocola finds himself trailing going into the final weekend. Here I think incumbency and GOTV efforts (Bush 56%) could end up saving him. But Donnelly is no liberal and has run an outstanding campaign, tying himself to “Indiana values.”

7. Florida 13

This seat is open as a result of Katherine Harris leaving to run for the Senate. The fact that she will be slaughtered today by Senator Bill Nelson could help drag a couple of Floridian GOP’ers with her.

By local reports, Republican Vern Buchanan has run an uninspired campaign in a district where Bush received 56% of the vote. But Buchanan got a boost with a recent visit by Laura Bush and his Democratic challenger, Christine Jennings, while running a smart campaign, found herself nearly broke by the weekend. A last minute infusion of cash from the DNC helped and this race is almost certainly too close to call.

8. New Mexico 1

While Bush got less than 50% of the vote in this district, 3 termer Heather Wilson is a scrappy campaigner and has run an excellent race. Dem challenger, Attorney General Patricia Madrid is well funded but inexperienced; she allowed Wilson to tar her with failing to do her job in a corruption case involving a state official. This plus Wilson’s incumbency may make the difference in a district that has been trending Democratic for years.

9. Indiana 9

Vulnerable first termer Mike Sodrel is in a tough fight with former Representative Baron Hill. Both candidates have been slugging it out in one of the dirtier campaigns in the country.

Both candidates are well known, well funded, and have good ground games. But Bush got a whopping 59% of the vote in this district and it appears that later polls are showing Sodrel pulling ahead. This one is probably a Republican hold.

10. Illinois 6

This is an open seat in a race to fill the spot of retiring GOP icon Henry Hyde. The Dems have pulled out all the stops in this one, recruiting a very articulate, attractive double amputee Iraq War vet Tammie Duckworth. She is smart and well funded but her inexperience has shown on the stump.

GOP hopeful Peter Roskam is much more polished having served in the Illinois House and Senate for 14 years, worked on Capitol Hill for Hyde, and been a political fixture in the district that went for Bush with 53% of the vote. Roskam has tried to paint the moderate Duckworth as a liberal, tying her to Ted Kennedy. Duckworth has tried to pin the extremist label on the moderately conservative Roskam. Both have failed and this one is definitely in the toss up column. Give Roskam a slight edge due to his big lead in very red Dupage County.

11. Arizona 5

Six termer J.D. Hayworth is in a tight battle with former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell. Another example of excellent recruiting by the Dems in a marginally competitive district as Hayworth coasted to victory in 2004 with 60% of the vote, outperforming Bush who got 57% in the district.

Mitchell is another moderate who is as strong as J.D. on immigration reform thus closing off an avenue of attack that Hayworth has used successfully in past campaigns. This race shows Mitchell surging the last two weeks and may tip to the Democrats.

12. California 11

This is a district the Dems targeted from the beginning despite the seven termer Richard Pombo’s record of racking up large margins of victory. The demographics of the district are changing rapidly (Bush 52%) with heavily Hispanic areas growing rapidly.

The Dem challenger Jerry McNerney is extremely well funded and has run a spirited campaign, scoring points against Pombo repeatedly for his votes on the war and veterans benefits. Pombo on the other hand has recently received a huge boost from a visit by Laura Bush and has an excellent ground game in place. Expect this one to be very tight and probably a real bellwether on how the night will go for both sides. A McNerney win will probably signal a big night for the Dems.

13. Kentucky 3

Six termer Anne Northup is showing strong in this Dem leaning district as she once again is enduring a tough challenge. She faces former newspaperman and columnist John Yarmouth who local papers say has underperformed in this race against the vulnerable incumbent.

Northup has run a good race, marred by tragedy. She lost her son last summer which placed the campaign on hold for both sides. That didn’t stop the classless folks at Moveon.Org from holding anti-Northup events which may have damaged Yarmouth’s chances. Also, Northup’s demise has been predicted in every election since she got to Washington. A good shot at a GOP hold here.

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I expect that the GOP will hold 4 of these seats. But if it is, in fact, a Democratic night, even candidates like Taylor and Northrup could find themselves on the losing end of things.

One more note: If enough of these races are close, don’t expect Democrats to celebrate their takeover until tomorrow at the earliest. Many of these races could be in doubt for days as challenges, recounts, and other maneuvers play themselves out.