Right Wing Nut House

I may do a post later today about some PC idiots teaching our children how evil white people are for their actions toward indians but tomorrow being Thanksgiving, I will indulge myself and take the day off.

Zsu Zsu and I plan on resting and then eating our genuine T-Bone USDA prime steaks (she hates turkey) along with sublime potatoes, fresh beans from our garden, a salad worthy of a king, and for desert a chocolate fudge brownie on top of double chocolate ice cream smothered in hot fudge.

Who wouldn’t look forward to that?

I also plan on doing some long overdue maintenance to the site and computer as well as getting my Skype recording package to work so that I can record interviews for the radio show. BTW - The Rick Moran Show will resume (along with the rest of WAR radio programming) on Monday, November 27 at 12:00 noon central.

I hope everyone has a happy and safe Thanksgiving. See y’all back here soon.

The March 14th Forces have called for a massive turnout of their followers for Thursday - the same day that Hizbullah is to take to the streets in their announced effort to overthrow the government - thus setting the stage for what has to be considered the most dramatic confrontation in history between ordinary people and terrorists.

The anti-Syrian camp has called for a massive turnout at the funeral of slain Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel on Thursday.

“The entire world will hear in the next few days the real voice of Lebanon, the voice of freedom, sovereignty and independence,” said former MP Fares Soaid, reading the statement.

“The March 14 forces calls on their followers and friends … to participate massively in the popular burial of the heroic martyr Pierre Gemayel,” it said. They also called for a total shutdown of businesses across Lebanon.

The group said “sadness has turned into anger” after Tuesday’s assassination. “We will go after the criminals and all those who cover this crime … the blood of Pierre Gemayel will not go in vain,” it said.

But “the March 14 forces also call on all their followers … to stay away from any sign of discord which only serves the objectives of the evil criminals,” it added.

Largely middle class, educated, and peaceful, the supporters of March 14th are being asked to take to the streets of Beirut for the funeral of cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel and confront the armed fanatics of Hizbullah who may or may not be trying to occupy the same turf at the same time. If he’s smart, Nasrallah will either call off his planned demonstrations as a sign of respect for the death of a member of one of Lebanon’s most important political families or move the demonstrations to Hizbullah territory in the southern suburbs of the city. This would defeat the purpose of the demonstrations but it is hard to see how he can back down at this point.

But the fact is that Nasrallah may not have a choice. His patron in Syria is desperate to stop the approval of the International Tribunal looking into the Hariri assassinations which just received the final go ahead from the United Nations yesterday. A strong denunciation of the assassination of Gemayel accompanied the resolution authorizing the Tribunal which now heads back to Lebanon for final approval by Siniora’s besieged cabinet. If President Assad has decided that the Tribunal must not go forward under any circumstances (as some have speculated), then it is likely that armed conflict will indeed ensue.

The death of Gemayel has scrambled the political situation and psychologically handed March 14th a powerful weapon. The call for what amounts to a general strike to demonstrate the people’s support for democracy is a brilliant tactical move by Siniora in that it unites the people in opposition to his killers - Syria or their toadies in Lebanon. It also places Nasrallah in the uncomfortable position of having to defend his support for Syria while making his quest for power seem small and petty during this time of crisis. How Nasrallah and Hizbullah behave over the next 24 hours will tell us a lot about whether the Sheik is following his own agenda or whether he is playing a full proxy role for Assad.

To underscore the preparations being made by both sides for armed conflict, here’s a Stratfor analysis:

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut. Lebanon’s Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah’s well-equipped and well-trained military forces. In the meantime, Syria continues to send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, about 2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

And Michael Totten reports that some radical Sunnis won’t take Hizbullah attacks on their co-religionists lying down:

If you think radical Shias are the only dangerous people in Lebanon, think again. From the SITE Institute:

The Mujahideen in Lebanon threaten that the Shi’ites will not have an “entity” in Lebanon, and increasingly warn the Sunni Muslim people that the “zero-hour” is approaching, in a statement issued today, Monday, November 20, 2006. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, is stated to be bearing his evil and gathering killers, and will not greet the Sunni with “flowers,” but with curses. The Mujahideen believe that the Nusayri [aka Alawite - MJT] regime in Syria and Iran is gathering parties around Nasrallah and Hezbollah, and to counter, the Sunnis must be prepared to fight. They warn: “The blood will flow like rivers,” and to the Shi’ites: “Prepare your coffins and dig your graves. The hurricanes of the Mujahideen are coming in Lebanon”.

This sentiment, if I could call it that, does not represent mainstream Sunni opinion in Lebanon. (Mainstream Sunni opinion is more fairly represented by Fouad Seniora and Saad Hariri.) But as recent events in both Lebanon and Iraq show, minority extremist factions can be big enough to start wars by themselves.

Incidentally, those Americans who say they want a civil war against Hezbollah in Lebanon need to realize that these are the kinds of people they’re egging on. The famous “protest babes” are not going to pick up the rifles.

Michael is right about the “protest babes.” But if blood is spilled on Thursday, it will most likely be some of those “protest babes” who get injured or killed so perhaps we shouldn’t be selling them short.

Perhaps a spasm of violence is in the offing followed by some kind of pull back by both sides. Or maybe Nasrallah will surprise us and call off his demonstrations until he has the streets of Beirut all to himself. Either way, he looks like a loser at this point. He has yet to make any kind of statement on the assassination (a statement condemning the assassination was issued in the name of the party) which means either that he is biding his time or weighing his options. Or perhaps both. Expect some definitive word from Nasrallah today.

Meanwhile, the people are already gathering in downtown Beirut for what promises to be the largest demonstration since Hizbullah’s “victory party” last summer. Emotions will run high. And the chances are that the forces represented by March 14 and those supporting Hizbullah will at some point confront each other across the chasm of history and violence.

How that confrontation turns out will determine the immediate future of Lebanon.

UPDATE

Hugh Hewitt compares the assassination of Gemayel with that of Archduke Ferdinand and Victor Davis Hanson agrees:

HH: Is this an Archduke Ferdinand moment with the assassination of Gemayel?

VDH: I think it may be. I really do. I think that Syria realizes that as soon as they saw that the United States was going to cease pressure on them, it was time to go in and start killing non-Shia politicians, reporters especially. They’ve killed journalists, they’ve killed T.V…it’s not just this Gemayel. It’s not just a Christian politician. They’ve been doing this for two years, killing, systematically, any critics. And they sense that they get a green light from us when we pull back. And I think it should be a wake up call for the United States, that when you go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, you don’t go to war in a half measure. You either go to war or you don’t go to war. And we’re in a war in Iraq, and we’re in war with, as the President said, Islamic-facism, and autocracy and dictatorship, and there’s no better examples than Iran and Syria.

There seems to be a consensus emerging among many on the right that leaks from Baker’s Iraq Study Group about some kind of entente with Syria may have emboldened Assad to strike in Lebanon.

First of all, from what we know of the mechanics of the Gemayel assassination, it was meticulously planned and rehearsed. The minister had 4 bodyguards and took enormous precautions to try and insure his safety. The car he was riding in was slammed from behind and 3 gunmen got out and sprayed Gemayel with at least 10 shots, 8 of which hit him. The gunmen then got away.

The bodyguards? I haven’t seen anything yet on whether they flubbed it or whether they may have been complicit in the killing. It seems to me that this was a killing long in planning.

Because of all this, I don’t think that the Iraq Study Group or calls from Dems for dialogue with Syria and Iran had much to do with this assassination. Assad and Nasrallah have their own agendas in Lebanon and I doubt whether much of anything influences them to take an action like this or not. I view it as a continuing effort by Assad to terrorize Lebanese and silence his critics. And if he can influence another two cabinet members into believing that discretion is the better part of valour and gets them to resign out of fear for their personal safety, he achieves his goal of bringing down the Siniora government before the Parliament has a chance to vote on the Tribunal.

Hugh also believes that the assassination may be akin to the Anschluss in the tactics used by Assad. I’ll buy that. The more I look at the situation and the gathering of forces, the more I think it will take a miracle for Siniora and the democrats to survive - literally and as a government. The country is ready to explode - has been ready since the end of the war with Israel. And Assad may have just lit the match.

Has President Assad of Syria miscalculated again?

Widely believed to be complicit in the assassination of ex Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Assad may have believed at the time that by killing the beloved ex-leader, he was heading off major opposition to his plan to extend the term of office of his ally President Emile Lahoud. In fact, the Lebanese Parliament rubber stamped the constitutional change that allowed Lahoud to serve until 2007 -but Assad paid an unforeseen price. More than a million Lebanese took to the streets demanding a speedup of the Syrian army pull out scheduled for later that spring. Stung by the size and scope of the demonstrations as well as the inability of Assad’s hand picked Prime Minister to form a government, the Syrian army was forced out along with the dreaded security apparatus that had held Lebanon under its thumb for nearly 20 years. The law of unintended consequences devoured Assad’s hopes.

Now once again a political assassination has taken place in Lebanon. This time, the message sent is even cruder and more direct; if we can’t take power by the vote, we will do it by the gun. If two more ministers in Prime Minister Siniora’s cabinet are killed or resign, the government will fall and Assad’s willing partners in Hizbullah will be well positioned to dominate any election. Through violence and intimidation, they would have the whip hand in any electoral contest to replace Siniora’s government.

But Assad once again may be underestimating the desire of the Lebanese people for freedom and independence. There is a chance that the millions who took to the streets to drive the Syrians out of their country may be called upon to demonstrate again - this time in support of the government that they freely elected in the Summer of 2005:

Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and former President Amine Gemayel called on Tuesday for unity in the deeply divided country after Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel’s assassination.

“Assassinations will not terrorize us,” Saniora told a press conference after an urgent cabinet meeting.

“We will not let the criminal killers control our fate.”

Saniora said “it is time for all Lebanese to unite.”

“The government will take up all its responsibilities in order to protect the interests of the Lebanese,” he pledged.

Saniora said “this aggression increases our determination to see the creation of the international tribunal” to try suspects in the 2005 murder of five-time Premier Rafik Hariri.

“It is time for all the Lebanese to rally around the international tribunal,” he said.

“I call on the Lebanese…to be alert to the sedition planned for them,” he said.

While all the March 14th Forces are calling for calm and restraint, the real question is what the Lebanese people may be thinking about all of this.

Would they consider taking to the streets again to support the democrats? It is one thing to demonstrate with little danger of confronting opposing forces. But it is quite another to go into the streets knowing that a confrontation with the armed militia of Hizbullah looms. And much has happened since those heady spring days in 2005 that have disillusioned some and caused others to question the efficacy of democracy itself. The war with Israel turned many Lebanese against the United States. And Siniora - fairly or unfairly - is closely identified with our efforts to help bring democracy to Lebanon.

Still, there may be a large reservoir of support for the March 14th Forces with ordinary Lebanese. And while they may not be opposed to some kind of cabinet compromise that would increase the number of Shia ministers, this violent attempt to affect the current crisis almost certainly does not sit well with them. They may feel compelled to support the government out of patriotic pride - the same kind of pride that drove them into the streets to demonstrate against Syrian hegemony in their country.

The situation in Lebanon is almost certainly coming to a head. The United Nations is expected to approve the rules for the Tribunal and send them back to Lebanon for the final go ahead by Siniora’s cabinet. The Gemayel assassination along with the news that another government minister was fired upon today makes it absolutely clear what Syria and Hizbullah’s end game is. Tony at the Lebanese blog Across the Bay:

This comes as the UN is set to approve the intl. tribunal today to send it back to Lebanon to be ratified. It also comes at the same time as Hezbollah and the other Syrian agents prepare to take to the streets for a coup d’état to protect the Syrian regime from the tribunal.

My fear is that they will go after a couple more ministers to ensure the government falls.

If this kind of scenario were to unfold, it would mean Hizbullah street demonstrations and Gemayel’s funeral procession would pretty much occupy the same space at the same time. I have no doubt that the ordinary Lebanese who will pour into the streets to show their love and affection for the crown prince of one of the great political families in Lebanon will stand up and be counted when it comes time to show their support for democracy. Whether it will be enough to stave off disaster is anyone’s guess.

The Associated Press is reporting (and the Daily Star confirms) that Lebanon’s Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was killed by gunmen near Beirut on Tuesday. Gemayel was the son of former President Amin Gemayel, a respected politician and participant in the National Dialogue which until recently, sought to avert a crisis by negotiations with Hizbullah over a new “unity” government.

The choice of the younger Gemayel as a target was no accident. It sends an absolutely clear signal to the rest of Prime Minister Siniora’s cabinet, written in blood, that no one - not even the Prime Minister himself - is safe:

His fatal shooting will certainly heighten the political tension in Lebanon, where the leading Muslim Shiite party Hezbollah has threatened to topple the government if he does not get a bigger say in Cabinet decision making.

Gemayel was rushed to a nearby hospital seriously wounded, the Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. and Voice of Lebanon, the Phalange Party mouthpiece reported.

The party later announced that he was dead.

Crude, but effective. I doubt whether Nasrallah himself knew in advance. He doesn’t want civil strife. He’s willing to threaten it but when it comes right down to it, he would prefer to swallow Lebanon whole rather than pick up the pieces after a ruinous civil war.

That doesn’t mean that Nasrallah won’t use his militia to foment a crisis in the streets. But he is hoping that the pressure he can put on the March 14th Forces coupled with international pressure on Siniora to give in to his demands will give him what he wants without a messy sectarian conflict.

No. This attack has Syria’s stink all over it. It’s exactly the kind of crude message that Syria sent by assassinating Rafiq Hariri; oppose Syria and you die. I’m not sure what this will mean politically. Too many boxes within boxes to sort out. Nasrallah will deny involvement to the heavens and perhaps even accuse the government of carrying out the assassination in order to undercut his position with the people. The March 14th Forces must tread carefully lest they be seen as taking political advantage of the death of a member of a much beloved family in Lebanon. And the Christian Phalange party may seek retribution against the Shias - a disastrous turn of events if that occurs.

Nothing will happen until the funeral. We should get a better idea of how things are shaking out then.

In the meantime, the International Tribunal should expand its mandate to include an investigating into this murder as well. Until Syria is brought to account for the murder of Hariri and other anti-Syrian journalists and politicians, the Lebanese people will never really be free. They will always be looking over their shoulder, waiting to see what Syria might do to rob them of their nationhood.

UPDATE: METHINKS THEY DOTH PROTEST TOO MUCH

Both Syria and Hizbullah have condemned the killing:

Syria on Tuesday condemned the assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, calling the shooting of the anti-Syrian Christian politician in Beirut a “despicable crime.”

The official news agency Sana said in a statement, “This is a crime aimed at destabilizing Lebanon… Syria is careful about preserving Lebanon’s security, unity and civil peace.”

SANA also quoted an anonymous official as saying, “This despicable crime aims to destroy stability and peace in Lebanon.”

The pro-Syrian Hezbollah party in Lebanon also came out against the murder. Hezbollah member Ahmed Melli told Al-Jazeera television, “We strongly condemn and denounce this killing. It was carried out by those forces who want to harm the future of Lebanon.”

Please note that the Syrian statement about preserving Lebanon’s “security, unity and civil peace” does not include the term “independence.”

This makes 5 prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese murdered over the last 2 years:

Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed in a massive car bombing in February 2005. The journalist and activist Samir Kassir and former Communist Party leader George Hawi were killed in separate car bombings in June last year in addition to lawmaker and newspaper manager Gibran Tueni was killed in a car bombing in December.

Tueni was publisher of the largest Arab daily newspaper in Lebanon, An Nahar and was a much beloved figure. And that list doesn’t include 3 or 4 others who have been wounded in assassination attempts including a very popular female TV reporter.

UPDATE II

Via Malkin, a great article by Daily Star Opinion Editor Michael Young in the Wall Street Journal today that calls for Syria to be punished for the Hariri asssassination:

The Iraq Study Group’s report, expected in the coming weeks, will possibly include such an invitation. Syria’s Lebanese foes fear they will pay if the U.S. and Damascus cut a deal.
If so, it wouldn’t be the first time for Mr. Baker. In 1990, he was a leading light in President George H.W. Bush’s administration, which ceded Lebanon to Syria in exchange for President Hafez Assad’s agreement to be part of the international coalition against Iraq. An inveterate “realist,” Mr. Baker is not likely to balk at negotiating with Mr. Assad if it means the U.S. can buy some peace of mind as it transforms its presence in Iraq. His proposal is unpopular at the White House, and last week Mr. Bush made that known to Mr. Baker and his colleagues. However, because of his electoral defeat, the president, pressed by a Congress avidly searching for new ideas, might find less latitude to ignore Syria down the road.

Unless, of course, the U.N. incriminates Syrian officials in the Hariri murder. That Mr. Assad realizes the fatal implications of this connection was evident when British Prime Minister Tony Blair recently sent a senior adviser, Sir Nigel Sheinwald, to Damascus for a chat. The visit, reportedly approved by Washington, aimed to see if Syria could be enticed away from Iran. If The Economist is correct, and the magazine spoke to Mr. Sheinwald upon his return, the Syrian president has four conditions: an end to the Hariri investigation, a guarantee that the U.S. would not undermine his regime, a return of Syrian influence in Lebanon, and the handing back of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel in 1967. No doubt Mr. Assad would demand much the same from the U.S. if it ran to Damascus to “engage” him on Iraq, assuming the Syrian leader would consider conceding to Washington in a moment of strength what he refused when he was weak.

The key is the Tribunal. All else becomes impossible for Assad if the Syrian government is implicated in the Hariri killing. Syria would become an international pariah and Assad himself might find himself on the outs.

I have a feeling that things are going to go south very soon in Lebanon.

This article originally appears in The American Thinker

Americans have been in a foul mood recently.

One would think that taking satisfaction from giving the Republicans the heave ho and depositing them in the minority would lift the spirits of our citizenry and buoy their confidence so that we could face the future with that good old fashioned American optimism that has carried the nation through difficult times in the past.

Alas, such is not the case. America awoke the day after the election and realized that kicking the GOP out of power was only part of the problem. The other half of the electoral bargain - passing the baton to the Democrats - has so far, proven to be something of a disappointment. Rarely has a party come to power as the Democrats have with such a paucity of ideas on how to cure what ails us. You can hardly blame them. Their electoral strategy involved keeping their mouths shut while the Republicans self-destructed and events in Iraq played out to their advantage. Not a brilliant battle plan but it worked to perfection - with the help of Mark Foley and the media-savvy insurgents and terrorists who have made Baghdad and its environs a hell on earth.

Unfortunately, now that they are poised to run the legislative branch of government, the lack of specificity about what they intend to do about Iraq, about Iranian nukes, about a slowly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan is coming back to haunt them. This has further soured the mood of our fellow citizens and we approach the holiday season with some trepidation and many questions unanswered.

Events the world over seem to be spinning out of our control as conflicts and crisis in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Iran, Darfur, Somalia, and several other hot spots have proved themselves resistant to any solutions we have been able to offer. Whether our efforts have been unilateral, acting in concert with our allies, or even undertaken via the questionable auspices of the United Nations, it seems that the enemies of freedom have it all going their way.

Not so fast, my dejected countrymen. In a surprising number of conflicts and crisis where it appears the enemy has a singular advantage, the fact is that any “victory” they might achieve at our expense will almost certainly come with enormous problems for them as well. And given that their legitimacy is not based on popular sovereignty but rather comes from the barrel of a gun, this makes any domestic problems that may crop up as a result of an American “defeat” a threat to their very existence.

Take the Iranians, for example. As long as we’re in Iraq, the mullahs will continue to do their best to destabilize the government by supporting insurgents and the various Shia militias that are gleefully slaughtering their fellow countrymen who happen to belong to the Sunni branch of Islam. But something has happened in the last few months that even the Iranians didn’t count on. The militias appear to have splintered, many members breaking away from any kind of central command structure and are now operating as independent death squads. Even Muqtada al-Sadr, head of the extremist Mahdi Militia has admitted he no longer controls large numbers of armed men who are roaming the streets of Baghdad looking for victims.

Losing control of their proxies is not the worst of it for the Iranians. The Democratic electoral victory has them even more nervous. Not because they think the Democrats are interested in victory in Iraq but rather because they know that the Democrats want as quick an exit for our troops as can be done without exposing themselves to political charges of cutting and running. The obvious corollary to an American withdrawal is utter and complete chaos in Iraq with not only Shia slaughtering Sunni but also rival Shia militias - the Mahdi Army and Badr Brigades - slaughtering each other in a quest for power.

Ahmadinejad may be a loon, but he’s not crazy enough to tolerate a failed state on his border. The Iranians may be forced to send their own troops into the resulting chaos and quagmire to restore some semblance of order. And wouldn’t that be the irony of ironies as it would be payback time for Iraqis who would gladly transfer their hate from occupying Americans to the Iranians who they fought for 10 long years in one of the more brutal wars of the 20th century.

The collapse of the Iraqi government would also give greater independence to the Kurds in the north who already enjoy a large degree of autonomy from Baghdad. With Kurdish Iranians over the border already seething over their perceived second class citizenship and yearning to be united with their ethnic brothers and sisters not only in Iraq but also Turkey and elsewhere, the Persian nightmare of restless minorities causing trouble within the Iranian border may become an uncomfortable reality. And once a few groups start to rebel, anything is possible including a general uprising against the rule of the theocrats.

Also, any success that the Iranians may have with their nuclear program is a double edged sword. While the chances of an American strike against Iranian nuclear facilities may be fading, the fact is that most of the world is united against the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. The closer the mullahs get to their goal of manufacturing a weapon, the more pressure will result from countries like Russia and China that today seem to be hanging back, reluctant to impose even minimal sanctions.

As the Iranian program progresses, they may find those who have been running interference for them at the United Nations less and less sanguine about radical fundamentalist Muslims having the ultimate weapon. And with their economy in the toilet and nearly 50% of the population under the age of 25 (26% under the age of 14), tough sanctions and the resulting international isolation could create the perfect conditions for a revolutionary overthrow of the government.

Meanwhile, Syria is, if anything, in even more trouble than Iran. Just next door, Israel has been making noises about going after Hezb’allah’s patron and supporter in order to keep the terrorists from re-arming. And while Syrian President Bashir Assad continues to meddle in the affairs of his Lebanese neighbors, his support and encouragement of Hezb’allah may be about to yield the unintended consequence of a civil war. Nasrallah is no Syrian toady and is now following his own agenda that he hopes will bring him to power either directly through new elections or indirectly by giving him veto power in a new “government of national unity.”

Resistance to Nasrallah’s plans may erupt into street violence within the week. And while most observers believe that Hezb’allah would emerge victorious, the resulting fractured society would be almost as hard to govern as next door Iraq. Besides, Assad needs Lebanon virtually intact. The little country has been a cash cow for the Syrian Alawi ruling class as they milked and skimmed the economy in the past for every farthing they could.

It is Iraq where Assad faces the most danger. A precipitous American withdrawal would present the Syrians with many of the same problems faced by Iran with a few extra headaches thrown in for good measure. The 90% of Sunni Muslims who make up Syria’s population would not look kindly on the slaughter of their co-religionists in Iraq. Refugees would pour across the border, straining the government’s resources. And the nightmare prospect of a potential radical Shia state ensconced on his border has been one reason that Assad has cooperated - however minimally - with American efforts to staunch the flow of fighters coming into Iraq via Syria.

Even Russia and China, who would seem to gain from American setbacks in the Middle East, would be facing problems that may, in the long run, actually draw them closer to the United States on some issues.

The nuclear non-proliferation problem doesn’t end with Iran. Both nations realize that it is in their vital interest to keep a lid on the bottle containing the nuclear genie if only to forestall a nightmare future with dozens of nuclear powers, any one of which capable of igniting World War III. This is why eventually, both nations will work with us to keep Iran from getting the bomb. The alternative is just too gruesome to contemplate.

In the Middle East, both nations realize the need for peace and stability - especially China who in a few years will surpass Japan as the second largest importer of oil behind the United States. Russia, with its restless Muslim minorities, also sees peace in the Middle East as a key to its future internal security. Both nations may temporarily profit by US missteps in the region. But ultimately, both realize that it is the United States and our special relationship with Israel that is the key to peace. Anything that reduces American influence in the region also potentially diminishes the chances for stability, something both countries can ill afford.

The bottom line is that as bad as things may seem to us, the fact that our enemies will be limited in taking advantage of our blunders due to consequences beyond their control should, if not make us feel better, at least lift the pall of gloom and doom that emanates from the punditocracy on a daily basis. And it should also remind us that we’re in this war for the long haul. Temporary set backs in Iraq or anywhere else should not deter us from continuing the fight to rid the world of Islamic extremists and the putrid ideology they wish to impose on the rest of us.

Nominations for the 2006 Weblog Awards are being accepted. You can go here and leave your nominations in the comments.

I was honored to be a finalist last year in the “Best Conservative Blog” category. And the reason I consider it an honor is the same reason I am promoting the awards with this post.

Kevin Alyward of Wizbang is one of the true gentlemen of the right side of the sphere. Without renumeration, he annually exposes himself to the slings and arrows of bloggers who either think the sphere should be a place of purity and light where such contests have no place or who think he left out some blog or other more deserving than those chosen.

Frankly, if it were me, I wouldn’t put up with the crap. I’d say “Fine. Here you go. See if you can do better.”

But Kevin nevertheless perseveres. And for that, every blogger owes him a debt of gratitude.

Nominations will continue for another week.

More selective leaking from our friends at the Central Intelligence Agency:

A classified draft CIA assessment has found no firm evidence of a secret drive by Iran to develop nuclear weapons, as alleged by the White House, a top US investigative reporter has said.

Seymour Hersh, writing in an article for the November 27 issue of the magazine The New Yorker released in advance, reported on whether the administration of Republican President George W. Bush was more, or less, inclined to attack Iran after Democrats won control of Congress last week.

A month before the November 7 legislative elections, Hersh wrote, Vice President Dick Cheney attended a national-security discussion that touched on the impact of Democratic victory in both chambers on Iran policy.

“If the Democrats won on November 7th, the vice president said, that victory would not stop the administration from pursuing a military option with Iran,” Hersh wrote, citing a source familiar with the discussion.

Of course, the CIA might be wrong - or at least this analysis may be flawed. There are probably other assessments that are much less sanguine regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions but no one leaked those reports. They’re a secret.

And I suppose Iran’s known and verified relationship with Big Daddy A.Q. Khan - father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb - and his travelling nuclear arms bazaar was just a coincidence - a happenstance of fortunate circumstance. Besides, Khan wasn’t selling nukes, he was selling ice cream machines.

Except that this document discovered by the IAEA, proves that either Iran is seeking to build nuclear weapons or those ice cream machines have one helluva kick:

A document obtained by Iran on the nuclear black market serves no other purpose than to make an atomic bomb, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday.

The finding was made in a report prepared for presentation to the 35-nation IAEA board when it meets, starting Thursday, on whether to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council, which has the power to impose economic and political sanctions on Iran.

The report was made available in full to The Associated Press.

First mention of the documents was made late last year in a longer IAEA report. At that time, the agency said only that the papers showed how to cast “enriched, natural and depleted uranium metal into hemispherical forms.”

The agency refused to make a judgment on what possible uses such casts would have. But diplomats familiar with the probe into Iran’s nuclear program said then that the papers apparently were instructions on how to mold highly enriched grade uranium into the core of warheads.

In the brief report obtained Tuesday, however, the agency said bluntly that the 15-page document showing how to cast fissile uranium into metal was “related to the fabrication of nuclear weapon components.”

Iran is probably claiming the document was accidentally stuck in between instructions on how to make a killer Rocky Road or maybe a sublime Moose Tracks.

Most of the rest of the planet believes that Iran’s heavy water reactors at Natanz and Arak serve no other purpose than to manufacture plutonium, a waste product of the nuclear reactions at the plants. Or perhaps the CIA believes that the heavy water will be used to create a particularly tasty variation of “Magilla Vanilla.”

And all of this secrecy and subterfuge surrounding their nuclear efforts is almost certainly not due to the fact that they wish to hide the development of a weapons program but rather because their recipe for “Black Cherry Surprise” promises to sweep the world.

All kidding aside, one point made by the assessment is probably correct; Iran is no where near having the capability to enrich uranium to the 85-90% necessary in order to build a bomb. And the heavy water reactors are years away from generating enough power to manufacture enough plutonium for a single weapon (although the 40 Megawatt facility at Arak promises to be a veritable plutonium assembly line once its fully operational and producing).

The key to the assessment is that the CIA has found no “firm” evidence of a secret Iranian nuke program. There is plenty of anecdotal and circumstantial evidence that they are, in fact, working hard to build the bomb. But the fact remains that there is no documentary or photographic “smoking gun” that would confirm our suspicions one way or another.

To proceed on the assumption that they aren’t building a bomb would be stupid. To bomb them without some idea of what facilities to hit would be equally dumb. And while negotiations would almost certainly be a waste of time, protocol, tradition, and common sense demands that we talk directly to the Iranians at some point. For this reason - and because they are at least 3 and probably more years from even getting close to succeeding - it would seem politic of us to sit down with the Iranians and discuss nukes, Iraq, and other regional issues that impact our security.

Besides, maybe the CIA will discover Iran’s secret frozen custard capability. That would make talking to the mullahs worthwhile.

The leading Lebanese Arab language daily newspaper, An Nahar, is reporting that Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah will send his supporters into the streets on Thursday in order to “bring down this unconstitutional and illegal government:”

Druze leader Walid Jumblat has warned that Lebanon was on the verge of a coup d’état as Hizbullah supporters were allegedly geared up for mass street protests on Thursday.

The leading daily An Nahar said Monday that the demonstrations would most likely take place on Thursday, the day Premier Fouad Saniora’s cabinet is to convene.

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah urged his followers and pro-Syrian allies to be “psychologically” ready for mass demonstrations to topple Saniora’s anti-Syrian government.

Jumblat, in turn, warned that “we are on the verge of a coup … through gradual street protests and possible collective resignations from (public) administrations and from parliament … then riots and civil disobedience.”

Nasrallah says that the protests will be peaceful and that even if government security forces seek to provoke a violent confrontation, Hizbullah will not fight back:

He also indicated that no matter what happened, even if security forces attacked the demonstrators, his militia would not be goaded into fighting a domestic battle.

“When we take to the streets we hope that they don’t mobilize their forces in front of ours,” he said. “If they insult us we will tell them, ‘God forgive you.’ If they beat us we will tell them, ‘God forgive you.’ ”

His speech was punctuated by chants from the crowd: “Labbeik ya Nasrallah” or “We follow you, O Nasrallah.”

Indeed, Nasrallah has no need to fight back or initiate a civil war. It is quite possible that he will get everything he desires without firing a shot or fomenting a single riot. This is because pressure is beginning to build on the March 14th Forces to come to some kind of agreement with Nasrallah on a reconstituted cabinet. Since Nasrallah begins from the premise that the cabinet must contain a sufficient number of Hizbullah allies so that he will have veto power over most cabinet decisions, any “national unity government” will, by definition, be the virtual end of the ruling coalition of democrats.

That pressure is taking many different forms, including regional diplomats offering competing compromise plans (all envision either a new cabinet or new elections) and the meddling by the United Nations who has been huddled with Hizbullah patrons Iran and Syria, basically plotting the downfall of Prime Minister Siniora’s government.

Nasrallah himself is playing his role as statesman to the hilt. He doesn’t want a coup, he claims, just “balance:”

Nasrallah rejected suggestions that Hezbollah was taking orders from Iran and denied that he intended to block the tribunal, but he implied that he saw formation of a new government as a way to counterbalance U.S. influence by giving a greater say to pro-Syrian groups.

“Let’s assume we do want to bring back the Syrians. We also accuse them [the government] of representing the Americans and other forces which I will not name,” he said. “If we form a national unity government, their presence will hold back the Syrians and we would keep the Americans at bay. We would achieve a balance.”

That kind of rhetoric resonates with many, many Lebanese from all sects and parties. There is much anger against the United States government for their decision last summer to delay a cease fire in the Israel-Hizbullah war in order to give the IDF more time to degrade Hizbullah’s ability to harm the Jewish state. Nasrallah has played upon US support for Siniora’s government skillfully while dismissing claims that his armed militia is beholden to Iran and Syria.

For their part, the government, besieged by both domestic and international forces, is standing firm. They maintain that while open to compromise, there are two non-negotiable items; the International Tribunal that will hear evidence of Syrian complicity in the murder of ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri must go forward and the election returns of last year will not be overturned by giving Hizbullah the ability to paralyze the government:

Future TV quoted sources close to Saniora as saying the premier rejected Nasralla’s accusations, saying “they lead to more tension and strain.”

Jumblat, however, in a speech published by Lebanese newspapers on Monday, said the ruling March 14 coalition welcomes an “honorable compromise” that would break the political impasse paralyzing Lebanon.

“March 14 Forces are ready for an honorable compromise that would not affect the international tribunal,” Jumblat said at the general assembly meeting of his Progressive Socialist Party.

The ruling majority has viewed Nasrallah’s campaign to overthrow Saniora as a coup aimed at devastating the international tribunal.

Jumblat said that the “compromise should start by endorsing the international court” to prosecute the suspected killers of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The U.N. Security Council is expected to discuss the draft on Monday.

Saad Hariri, son of the slain Prime Minister and Parliamentary leader of the March 14th Forces, dismissed Nasrallah’s sincerity with a scathing insult:

“We approve of the formation of a national unity government, but the mentality required for its creation is missing.”

What does the future hold? Walid Jumblat offered this chilling scenario:

“The opposition groups are on the verge of announcing a coup in the country,” Mr. Jumblatt said Sunday at a televised news conference. “They will start with gradual street protests, then mass demonstrations, then riots and resignation from Parliament. We are until this moment still calling for a compromise.”

There is little doubt that Nasrallah has the ability to create such an outcome. The fact is, however, that a civil war would not be in his interest. He wants Lebanon intact, not destroyed by conflict. But once he sends his bully boys into the streets, all bets are off. This is because there may be counter demonstrations carried out by coalition parties that could lead to violent clashes. And the security services, thought to be loyal to the government, may lose control (or be goaded into violence) by Hizbullah rowdies.

There is also the very real possibility that Syria could foment violence as a way to destabilize the country. It has become apparent in this crisis that President Assad never viewed Syria’s exit from Lebanon as a permanent state of affairs, only a temporary set back. Infiltrating agent provocateurs into the demonstrations for the explicit purpose of fomenting civil strife is a very real possibility.

Nasrallah is about ready to ratchet up the tensions in Lebanon to unbearable levels. Whether the democrats can resist remains to be seen.

Gametime approaches. My deli is laid out (pickles on the right…knife for the mayo…where the hell is the dip?), the feast is already underway. Zsu Zsu and her damn head cheese. I with my smoked Virginia ham and Wisconsin Braunschweiger. Plochman’s mustard please, damn the Grey Poupon.

I am inching the volume up on the WBBM hometown radio broadcast. Let’s see if they can synch up the radio with the TV today. It actually varies from week to week. Jeff Joniak, Bears homer announcer, tells people to turn down the TV and listen to the radio broadcast instead. I would be more than happy to oblige (the prospect of Joe Buck doing a football game - a BEARS football game - causes my knees to knock and my hands to palsy) except there is something really disconcerting about hearing the play unfold on the radio before the ball is snapped. There have been times when the delay was 5 seconds or more. Clearly, WBBM techies must do a better job.

My cat snowball is curious about Zsu Zsu’s brain food. She sniffs it suspiciously and refuses the offer of a treat. Uninvited, she begins to lick the knife that I used to spread the brauncschwieger. Ah! That’s more like it! Why do you bother with that crap when you have perfectly good food here, she asks with an imperious look that both melts the heart and chills the bones.

My theory about cats is simple; they were left behind by the Olympian Gods to keep an eye on us. And to rule us. Man’s relationship with cats has been one long nightmare of being preyed upon. One of the earliest homo sapiens fossiles is that of a young boy with two holes in the middle of his skull. The holes match exactly the canines of a leopard. The beast leapt from a tree or rock and buried his teeth in the youngster’s head, dragging him away to his doom. This image must be hardwired into our brains. This is why domestic cats engender both awe and fear. Unlike dogs, cats have no problem looking you right in the eye and staring you down. And in that look, we always wonder what they are thinking.

I decided long ago that they had only one thing on their mind when they stare at us like that: Lunch.

Coach Lovie is being interviewed. He sounds confident. He always sounds confident. Therre isn’t a coach in the NFL being interviewed today who doesn’t sound confident. Except maybe Dennis Green of the Cardinals. He probably sounds depressed. Or mad.

Given the way his season is going, I wouldn’t be surprised if his assistants didn’t have him on some kind of hari-kari watch.

Good news. Looks like speedster wide receiver Bernard Berrian will play today. That should stretch the field for Rex “The Wonder Dog” Grossman and perhaps open the underneath a little more for tight end Desmond Clark.

Zsu Zsu wants to change the channel and turn down the radio. She wants to watch the end of this stupid chick flick on Lifetime. I quietly but firmly told her that this was out of the question, that 16 Sundays out of the year there will be no interruptions, no arguments, and no changing the channel to chick flicks on Lifetime.

Now that I’m in the bedroom watching the rest of the pre-game, I think I’ll finish this little pre-game warmer upper. I wish the damn game was web simulcast with the WBBM call of the game overdubbed. Oh well - give the net a few years. Anything is possible.

As if it’s not bad enough that every diplomat in the Middle East is taking turns trying to tell Prime Minister Siniora’s government how best to capitulate to Hizbullah’s demands that he resign and that a “Government of National Unity” be formed, the PM now has to deal with that special kind of groveling defeatism that only the United Nations can bring to the negotiating table.

A momentous initiative aimed at finding a settlement to end Lebanon’s critical political deadlock and would soon dispatch a delegate to “tranquilize” mounting tension.
Annan spoke on Saturday with Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about the need for stability in Lebanon.

He “urged them to counsel the parties concerned to exercise patience and resolve their differences through dialogue,” said a statement issued by his spokesman.

Annan’s phone conversation with both leaders came a day after As Safir daily, citing Arab diplomatic sources in New York, said the U.N. chief has decided to “launch a political initiative aimed at tranquilizing the political situation in Lebanon.”

Since Annan won’t mention it and the chances that Assad or Ahmadinehjad will bring it up are just about as close to absolute zero you can get, one fact in this entire crisis engineered as a power grab by Hizbullah seems to have been lost in the shuffle.

To wit: In June, 2005 the Lebanese people went to the polls and overwhelmingly elected the March 14th Forces to represent them in Parliament. The democrats won nearly 3 times the number of MP’s as the next closest party. It was a slaughter. It wasn’t even close.

And now, less than 2 years later, most of the world has forgotten that one salient fact and are rushing to give Hizbullah what they want, all in the name of “stability.”

If the world backed Prime Minister Siniora’s government with half the enthusiasm with which they now wish to destroy it, I daresay that democracy would be on much firmer footing in Lebanon and Hassan Nasrallah and his bully boys would be retreating to southern Lebanon with their tail between their legs to take up commiserations with their French sympathizers in UNIFIL.

Instead, Nasrallah is biding his time, letting his patrons in Syria and Iran orchestrate a diplomatic dance that can only have one possible outcome; the ouster of Siniora and his cabinet followed by either the formation of a government with enough Shia ministers that would give Hizbullah veto power over major government decisions or early parliamentary elections that would give Nasrallah the opportunity to flex his muscles in the streets of Beirut and perhaps bring him to power.

That latter scenario is a longshot to be sure. But the leader of Lebanese Forces Samir Gaeges points out the value of political assassination and how it may be a path to power for Hizbullah:

Geagea told Reuters that the government now has 17 ministers, if 3 of these ministers were eliminated then the government will automatically fall.
Geagea did not rule out appointing Shiite ministers who are loyal to the March 14 the forces but preferred to continue all efforts to bring back the Amal and Hezbollah ministers.

He would not say who might try to kill ministers, but said Syria has some minor allies in Lebanon who may attempt the assassinations to prevent the international court from taking place.

The March 14th Forces are standing firm. Party leader Saad Hariri has made it absolutely clear that Hizbullah will not achieve with bluster and threats what it could not achieve at the ballot box:

Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri has ruled out giving Hizbullah and its allies veto power in government, assuring that the return of the resigning Shiite ministers to the cabinet would be a first step toward a settlement.

“No one will activate the annulled one-third which is capable of toppling the government any time it decides,” Hariri said in an interview with the leading daily An Nahar published Saturday.
Hizbullah has been threatening to stage street protests to bring down Prime Minister Fouad Saniora’s government if its demands for the formation of a national unity cabinet that would give it and its allies veto power over key decisions were not met.

He said such resignations would “threaten vital decisions, topped by Resolution 1701 which calls on Israel to stop renewed assaults on Lebanon and, therefore, preserve Lebanon from going back into a destructive arena for regional interests.”

“Second of all, is the international tribunal which is going to be created and there is no doubt about that because it is the only guarantee for the Lebanese,” Hariri added.

Kofi Annan is dispatching a special negotiator to Lebanon this week. Since Hizbullah is starting from the premise that the government must go and that no compromise on that score is possible, the UN negotiator will try his best to come up with plans and formulations that will help Nasrallah achieve that goal - perhaps not right away - but too soon for the winners of that glorious election that capped the Cedar Revolution and which held such promise for the Lebanese people.

To watch the whole sickening process of betrayal unfold before our eyes may be too much to bear for those who care about democracy in Lebanon. One more reminder as the world careens toward crisis over Iranian nukes how truly useless the United Nations has proved itself to be.